debt – Author Carlo Carrasco

Philippines Has The Highest Debt Risk In Asia According To New Economic Study

September 27, 2025September 18, 2025carlocarrasco

With its recent economic study, Oxford Economics declared that the Philippines has the highest debt risk among its Asian neighbors and the biggest contributor to the risk is the nation’s limited internal policy space, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

Constrained fiscal and monetary policy space, along with increasing reliance on foreign debt, has placed the Philippines at the highest sovereign risk, or the greatest risk of failing to meet its debt obligations, among its Asian peers.

According to a Sept. 10 report by the think tank Oxford Economics, the Philippines recorded the highest sovereign risk score among 12 Asian economies, at 4.5 out of 10. The biggest contributor to this risk is limited internal policy space, referring to the country’s relatively narrow fiscal and monetary flexibility compared with its peers.

The second-largest factors are external imbalances—measured by current account and trade deficits—along with the size of the economy, and institutional risks. Other contributors include political risks, the business environment, vulnerabilities in the banking sector, and corporate debt.

India ranked second in sovereign risk, followed by China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Meanwhile, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were assessed to have the lowest risk levels.

Sovereign risk refers to the possibility that a government may default on its debt by failing to meet interest or principal payments.

“On the fiscal front, the stubborn bias towards fiscal conservatism is likely to persist, following the broad unwinding of pandemic-era discretionary support,” Oxford Economics lead economist Alexandra Hermann said.

However, given that “around half of the region’s economies are likely to fall short of their official growth estimates this year, and the remainder only just meeting stated targets, the political economy of growth underperformance could tilt authorities towards further incremental easing going into 2026.”

For the Philippines, the government is targeting a growth rate of 5.5 to 6.5 percent for 2025—a downscaled version of the more ambitious goal of six to eight percent previously.

While governments in Asia, including the Philippines, could implement measures to soften the impact of weaker exports, the think tank noted that economic growth would still be slower than normal. Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5.4 percent in the first half of the year.

“On the monetary side, most central banks have room to cut further as real rates are still elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms, despite pre-emptive cuts this year particularly in emerging Asia,” Hermann said.

To recall, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) aggressively hiked lending rates to as high as 6.5 percent in 2024 to tame raging increases in consumer prices brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Hermann expects the Philippine central bank alongside other Southeast Asian central banks to further reduce key borrowing costs by as much as three quarters of a point by early next year, similar to what they did previously during economic slowdowns.

“We anticipate an additional 25-75 bps [basis points] of rate reductions across India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, completing an easing cycle by early 2026 that is broadly consistent in scale with prior non-recessionary slowdowns,” Hermann said.

Should the BSP reduce the key policy rate by up to 75 bps though the first half of 2026, the current five percent could be brought down to 4.25 percent. For this year alone, the BSP has so far lowered rates by a cumulative 75 bps, citing still subdued inflation and risks to slower growth.

In another Sept. 10 report of the think tank, the BSP and other central banks are seen to be “hawkish despite low inflation.” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. earlier signaled a still accommodative stance but now less dovish.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to the recent developments? Do you think the Philippines will be able to reduce its sovereign risk? What do you think should be done about the debt risk the country has? Do you think the high debt risk could turn off foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Moody’s Predicts 5.7% Growth for Philippine Economy in 2025

September 7, 2025September 1, 2025carlocarrasco

Based on its latest economy research, Moody’s Ratings announced that the economy of the Philippines will achieve 5.7% growth for the year 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY is on track to grow by 5.7% this year on the back of strong household spending, steady remittances and sustained public investments, Moody’s Ratings said.

“We expect the Philippines to maintain strong economic growth relative to regional and rating peers,” Moody’s said after the completion of a periodic review of Philippines’ credit rating.

“Growth will be supported by resilient household consumption, stable remittance inflows from overseas workers, and public investment spending, and ongoing structural reforms,” it said in a report.

Moody’s forecast is within the government’s revised 5.5-6.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for this year.

In the second quarter, GDP expanded by an annual 5.5%, up from 5.4% in the first quarter but slower than the 6.5% in the same period last year. For the first half, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Moody’s flagged downside risks to the outlook arising from the US tariff policies.

“Although the Philippines’ exposure to trade and global value chains is relatively low, uncertainty around US trade policy and tariffs presents some downside risks to domestic consumption and investment,” it said.

Since Aug. 7, the United States has been imposing a 19% tariff on Philippine goods entering the US. The US is one of the top destinations for Philippine-made goods.

Growth will also be supported by its fiscal consolidation efforts, but Moody’s flagged the government’s high debt stock and interest burden.

“Fiscal consolidation efforts are on track to meet the government’s revised Medium-Term Fiscal Framework of reducing the deficit to 4.3% of GDP by 2028, supported by the implementation of reform measures at enhancing revenue collection and spending efficiency,” Moody’s said.

While this will help temper Philippines’ debt burden, Moody’s said debt will remain “above pre-pandemic levels.”

As of June, the Philippines’ sovereign debt hit a fresh high of P17.27 trillion, up 11.5% from P15.48 trillion in the same month in 2024.

This brought the debt-to-GDP ratio to 63.1% at the end of June, the highest ratio since 2005. This is above the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold considered by multilateral lenders to be manageable for developing economies.

“Debt affordability, measured by the ratio of interest payments to revenue, is expected to weaken over the next two years, before gradually normalizing as global refinancing rates decline and economic growth returns to its long-term trend,” the debt watcher said.

“Despite rate cuts by the central bank since the second half of 2024, elevated government funding costs and a lag in the monetary policy transmission will keep interest burden higher,” it added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Moody’s Ratings of a 5.7% economic growth for 2025 will turn out true? What do you think it will take for the Philippine economy to reach 6% growth this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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What to watch on YouTube right now – Part 45

December 11, 2024December 9, 2024carlocarrasco

Welcome back, my readers, YouTube viewers and all others who followed this series of articles focused on YouTube videos worth watching. Have you been searching for something fun or interesting to watch on YouTube? Do you feel bored right now and you crave for something to see on the world’s most popular online video destination?

I recommend you check out the following topics and the related videos I found.

#1 A look back at Tobal No. 1 – The 1990s will always be remembered as the decade when fighting games became wildly popular. While franchises like Tekken, Virtua Fighter, Street Fighter and The King of Fighters literally flooded the arcades and consoles, game developers at DreamFactory (a subsidiary of Square) were dissatisfied with the state of fighting games at the time and this eventually led to the creation of Tobal No. 1, one of the most unique games of its genre ever made. To learn more about it, watch the video below.

#2 Assorted videos of Air Force One (1997) – Watching Air Force One (starring Harrison Ford) on the big screen in 1997 was a fun experience for me. It was one of the many so-called Die Hard clones of the 1990s which featured one brave, vulnerable hero fighting terrorists while confined in a place where escape is not option. For your enjoyment, I selected one trivia video and a few reaction videos of Air Force One. As it is a great film, I encourage you to watch it first in case you have not seen it. Otherwise, go watch the selected videos below.

#3 Slope’s Game Room’s look back at the Choplifter series – I first played Choplifter on the Family Computer back in the late-1980s and it really was both unique and fun to play. It was a side-scrolling adventure game with military action but it was not an all-offense experience. In fact, the game gives you opportunities to rescue hostages and the game development history is pretty interesting to discover. As such, I encourage you to watch Slope’s Game Room’s retrospective of Choplifter.

#4 The games of Square in the 1990s remembered – If you know your video game history, Square Enix was established in 2003 as a result of a merger between Square (AKA SquareSoft) and Enix. When Square was still an independent, standalone company it released a lot of memorable games on the Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) and the PlayStation in the 1990s. If you love retro gaming and if you are interested to discover (or rediscover) what Square released back in the 1990s, then this video is for you.

#5 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau receives response from returning US President Donald Trump regarding new tariffs – Justin Trudeau – the super woke and out-of-touch Canadian Prime Minister – told the returning US President Donald Trump that new tariffs would kill the economy of Canada. The result is a memorable response from Trump. To see what happened and how the public reacted, watch this Sky News Australia video. Lastly, never ever trust Trudeau. You will regret it believing in him as he is a very bad leader.

#6 Kamala Harris being hit by her donors and her fellow Democrats for reckless campaign spending – The defeated Commie Kamala Harris is now the target of her US presidential campaign donors and even her fellow Democrats. You see, her campaign team raised at least $1.5 billion and ended up with a debt of at least $20 million due to reckless spending and irresponsible handling of money. Apart from literally BUYING the support of celebrities and Hollywood Communists, the Harris campaign spent excessively on online ads, private jets and others. The donors are very furious and a lot of Democrats realized that the laughing hyena Kamala Harris severely damaged the political party. That being said, Kamala Harris would be delusional enough to actually run for US President again in 2028. Watch and learn from Sky News Australia’s video.

#7 You, Me and the Movies react to Friday the 13th Part VIII: Jason Takes Manhattan – Years I ago, I posted my retro review of Friday the 13th Part VIII: Jason Takes Manhattan. The 1989 Friday The 13^th sequel was so sloppy and bad with its presentation, it sometimes could be funny to see and it’s okay to ridicule it. If you want to discover Jason Takes Manhattan without spending too much time, you should watch the reaction video of You, Me and the Movies.

8. The collapse of the Assad dictatorship in Syria – In case you missed the news, a new chapter in the history of Syria has officially started as the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad officially ended with the Islamist rebels taking over the country. Assad and his family are now in Russia. While there is euphoria going on in Syria, you should not allow yourselves to be deceived because the civil war in Syria was never a case of “good versus evil”. Assad was allied with Russia and terrorist state Iran. Meanwhile, the Syrian rebels are allied with the Islamist Turkish forces, Jihadists, terrorists and they have Al-Qaeda members in their ranks. Syria now has a new beginning but where will it go? Watch the videos I selected for your viewing and learning.

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What to watch on YouTube right now – Part 44

December 4, 2024November 29, 2024carlocarrasco

I recommend you check out the following topics and the related videos I found.

#1 Konami’s failed fighting games of the 1990s – Remember back in the 1990s when a lot of fighting games were released on the arcades and game consoles? Japanese game companies Namco and Capcom released a lot of memorable fighting games of different styles such as Street Fighter II, Tekken, Marvel vs. Capcom, Tekken 3, Soulcalibur, X-Men: Children of the Atom, X-Men vs. Street Fighter and so on. Sega released Virtua Fighter games while Midway released Mortal Kombat games, and SNK had Fatal Fury, King of Fighters and Art of Fighting games. Looking back at the fighting game craze of the 1990s, I noticed that Konami – best known for Metal Gear, Contra, Gradius and Suikoden – released their own fighting games but never achieved the tremendous success that its competitors had. The retro gaming video is a must-see.

#2 Calvin Dyson’s lengthy review of The World is Not Enough – I can hardly believe that it has been twenty-five years since the James Bond movie The World Is Not Enough was released in cinemas as the 20^th century was ending. The 3^rd film of Pierce Brosnan as Agent 007 received mixed reviews from the critics and some fans found it to be really brainless and excessive with action which negatively affected the cinematic narrative. To find out if the 1999 Bond movie aged well or not, YouTuber Calvin Dyson recently posted his lengthy retro review and you can watch it now.

#3 In-depth documentary of Smash TV – Remember way back in 1990 when Smash T.V. (also referred to as Smash TV) was released in the arcades and attracted a lot of players with its enjoyable game design and concept? The game was a hit and went on to be ported to many platforms afterwards, and I played its Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) version a lot. To find out how hit game started and who were the key people behind its production, watch the video documentary of PatmanQC now.

#4 Defeated Kamala Harris, Sharon Stone, Alec Baldwin and others highlighted in Lefties Losing It episode – It has been a few weeks since Donald Trump pulled off the greatest American comeback by winning again the US presidential election. Even until now, the Leftists are still agonizing over Trump’s victory and many of them cannot accept the reality of what happened. In the latest Lefties Losing It episode below, you will see a drunk-like Kamala Harris talking to her supporters, Sharon Stone bashing others and more. Watch it!

#5 Electric vehicles sparked into fire disasters as a result of salt water caused by Hurricane Helene – This news video should convince you not to buy and drive an electric car or any type of electric vehicle for that matter. Salt water touching the ion batteries of electric vehicles spark flame and this leads into fire incidents that simply could not be solved quickly. Hurricane Helene’s powerful wind brought salt water into affected communities and not even electric vehicles parked inside the garage were spared. Avoid electric vehicles and stick with vehicles that run on fossil fuel.

#6 Ashleigh Burton’s Fantastic Four (2005) reaction video – Back in 2005, I never saw Fantastic Four in the local cinema. I was never a Fantastic Four fan nor did the team-up of Stan Lee and Jack Kirby starting the said superhero team interested me. Believe it or not, I finally saw the movie on home video in 2009. In recent times, YouTuber Ashleigh Burton posted her reaction video of Fantastic Four and it is fun to watch.

#7 Phantasy Star IV retrospective – Thanks to my physical copy of Sega Genesis Classics, I was able to play Phantasy Star IV: The End of the Millennium on my Xbox Series X console. For the newcomers reading this, Phantasy Star IV was a sci-fi Japanese role-playing game (JRPG) released on the Sega Genesis (Mega Drive in other markets) in Japan in 1993 followed by released in America and Europe in 1995. The production side of the game has very interesting details and you can learn all about it in GTV Japan’s retrospective video below.

#8 A look at Disney’s The Black Hole – Long before the Walt Disney Company became the super woke entity of modern times, they released the expensive sci-fi film The Black Hole. As far as the Disney legacy is concerned, the 1979 movie is significant as it marked a serious change of direction the company took with its movies. Disney was already known for wholesome and family oriented movies and TV shows and eventually entered a period of uncertainty. The Black Hole was both Disney’s attempt to cash-in on the sci-fi and disaster film craze of the 1970s and attract more adult moviegoers. You can learn more about this forgotten movie by watching the videos below.

#9 Popcorn in Bed’s What Lies Beneath reaction video – I saw What Lies Beneath inside a crowded cinema here in the Philippines way back in 2000. Directed by Robert Zemeckis, the film was an inspired work of suspense and horror mainly told through Michelle Pfeiffer’s character. I still remember some comments of disappointment over Harrison Ford’s lack of screen time compared with Pfeiffer’s. Regardless, you have to see Popcorn in Bed’s reaction video right here.

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What to watch on YouTube right now – Part 43

November 27, 2024November 19, 2024carlocarrasco

I recommend you check out the following topics and the related videos I found.

#1 When Atari invaded Japan – Here in the Philippines, me and my friends played video games on the Atari 2600 consoles in our respective homes during the first half of the 1980s. What I did not know back then was the fact that Atari did its best to sell its console and video games in nearby Japan. It turns out, their console in Japan was the Atari 2800. Watch and learn about this particular part of video game history with the video of GTV Japan below.

#2 A look back at Superman: The Animated Series – When it comes to animated series of the 1990s related to superheroes, X-Men: The Animated Series, Batman: The Animated Series and Spider-Man: The Animated Series are often remembered by long-time fans and geeks. The animated series of Superman, however, does not get remembered as much even though it had good quality animation and presentation. Of course, it should be remembered that the 1990s was the same decade when DC Comics had Superman killed, introduced the Supermen, brought Superman back to life and even had the Clark Kent identity destroyed which probably overshadowed the animated series. To discover more of Superman: The Animated Series, watch the video below.

#3 Examining the original 2099 comics franchise of Marvel Comics – You might have heard about 2099 among the many comic books Marvel published through the decades. The futuristic of Marvel’s shared universe originally started in late 1992 when the comic book speculator boom was still intense. It started strongly with Spider-Man 2099 followed by Ravage 2099, Doom 2099 and Punisher 2099. In the 2^nd half of 1993, X-Men 2099 followed and even more related comic books got released. Of course, the 2099 franchise of the 1990s eventually ended. How and why it all happened like that, you can learn by watching Owen likes Comics’ video below.

#4 You, Me and the Movies’ Excalibur reaction – Excalibur is an epic medieval fantasy movie about the legend of King Arthur and his knights released in 1981. I first saw the film on TV in 1988 and it was an intriguing viewing experience. I replayed it on physical disc format in 2003 and eventually recognized Patrick Stewart, Helen Mirren, Liam Neeson and Gabriel Byrne looking much younger. If you want to discover more of Excalibur through the reaction of You, Me and the Movies, watch the video posted below. It’s a fun watch.

#5 Assorted videos about Planet of the Apes (1968) – Planet of the Apes of 1968 is considered by many as a great science fiction film as well as a philosophical and intelligent viewing experience. While it is an engaging viewing experience, I find the concept of human evolution and the so-called genetic links between humans and apes to be nothing more than fantasies. Considering its fame, it is no surprise that a lot of YouTubers made their own videos about it and you can watch the selected videos below.

#6 A look back at Robotron: 2084 – Robotron: 2084 is a 2D, multi-directional shooting game first released in arcades way back in 1982. I never played the arcade version but managed to play it on an IBM PC around the mid-1980s. The history behind the game is quite rich in details and you can enjoy learning about it by watching the video of PatmanQC below.

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What to watch on YouTube right now – Part 41

November 13, 2024November 12, 2024carlocarrasco

I recommend you check out the following topics and the related videos I found.

#1 Varied videos of Friday The 13^th Part 2 – While it is a fact that Friday The 13^th Part 2 is not exactly a great slasher horror movie, it is still an improvement over its predecessor and first established Jason Voorhees as the deadly antagonist. Its production values were also better as well. Believe it or not, there are lots of retro movie video reviews and movie reaction videos about it and I posted below the best ones you can enjoy.

#2 When people push science too far (dramatized with XCOM games) – Science can be helpful but if scientists allow it to overwhelm and control them, science can be disastrous. In fact, science can make someone much less human. The YouTuber Woahvi made the video below to make a point about going extreme with science while using footage and concepts of the popular video game XCOM: Enemy Unknown (and the sequel) which I myself played a lot. There is a lot of engaging stuff to see in the video and I encourage you to watch it now.

#3 Commiewood in chaos over Donald Trump’s amazing comeback – It is a known fact that Hollywood has too many Commies, woke nuts and other Leftists. Unsurprisingly, Commiewood blindly supported the Democrats and their presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Because Donald Trump pulled off the greatest American comeback by winning the US Presidential Election, Commiewood elements are agonizing and falling apart. Watch and learn from the videos below.

#4 A look at Undercover Cops – I never played Undercover Cops on the arcade nor on console. In fact, I don’t even remember seeing it anywhere back in the 1990s. I recently visited the YouTube channel of PatmanQC and decided to watch his retrospective video about Undercover Cops. It is a fun video to watch to discover what the game is about and what I missed out on. Watch it!

#5 Critical Drinker’s Production Hell videos about Star Trek V: The Final Frontier and Full Metal Jacket – Apart from his reviews and analytical videos about movies, I find Critical Drinker’s Production Hell series engaging to watch. He clearly does his own research about the troubled productions of movies as well as conflicts between certain people involved. I encourage to watch his videos about Star Trek V: The Final Frontier and Full Metal Jacket. Each video is loaded with details and Critical Drinker’s presentation is great.

#6 The reckless spending and debt of Kamala Harris and the Democrats – If you want a modern look at spending done so recklessly that it led to debt and division, look at the failed US Presidential campaign of Commie Kamala Harris. To say the least, Harris and the Democrats raised over a billion Dollars and spent massively to literally buy the endorsements of celebrities, pay to have Harris in shows and podcasts, transport die-hard supporters from state to state to create the illusions of massive attendance, and more. Watch and learn from the detailed, explanatory video of Sky News Australia below.

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Online lending company raided by police for threatening clients

May 22, 2023May 17, 2023carlocarrasco

Are you a Philippine resident who borrowed money from an online lending company and got threatened by them to push you into paying them back? Another company that lends money got raided by the police over complaints from clients who claimed they were threatened, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The raided company was located in Pasig City.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news article. Some parts in boldface…

An online lending company in Barangay San Miguel, Pasig City was raided by operatives of the Philippine National Police – Anti-Cybercrime Group (ACG) on Tuesday, May 16, for allegedly threatening and harassing its customers who have failed to pay their loans.

The company was identified as Realm Shifters Business Process Outsourcing Services, located along Mercedes Avenue in Barangay San Miguel.

According to the Philippine Association of Loan Shark Victims Inc. (PALSVI), a non-profit organization dedicated to helping loan shark victims, the company is one of the many businesses operating online lending applications (OLA) that harass and threaten users for not paying their debts.

The PNP-ACG conducted the raid in response to the complaints made to their office from the victims of the OLA.

A warrant to search and seize computer data was served by the police to the company during the operation.

Digital forensic examinations to extract data and evidence from the computers, mobile phones, and other devices of the OLA agents are ongoing.

Other incidents of malpractice made by the company are also under further investigation by the police.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? How many people in your local community got harassed by an online lending firm recently?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Oxford Economics says Philippine economic growth will slow down to 4.1% this year

February 28, 2023February 23, 2023carlocarrasco

For Oxford Economics, the economy of the Philippines will achieve continued growth in 2023 but with a notable slow down to 4.1%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Oxford Economics mentioned in its statement factors like the global economy entering recession, inflation and the lack of impact from China’s reopening.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH is expected to slow to 4.1% this year, as external headwinds and elevated inflation are seen to dampen domestic demand, Oxford Economics said.

“After registering respectable growth of 7.6% in 2022, we expect the Philippines’ economy to slow to 4.1% amid global headwinds, elevated inflation, and a fading reopening boost. With monetary tightening set to continue, the economy could use a hand from the fiscal side, but chances are slim,” Makoto Tsuchiya, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said in a research note released on Wednesday.

Oxford Economics’ gross domestic product (GDP) projection is well below the government’s 6-7% target.

It expects GDP to expand by 4.5% next year, still outside the 6.5-8% target set by the government.

“We expect GDP growth to slow materially amid softer external demand as the global economy enters a recession, led by weakness in major advanced economies. We don’t think China’s reopening will be enough to offset this weakness, with the recovery in private consumption there likely to be lackluster,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

There is a widely anticipated global recession this year, with the World Bank projecting global growth to slow to 1.7%.

Rising inflation is also seen to “substantially” slow the Philippine economy, Mr. Tsuchiya said.

In January, inflation soared to a 14-year high of 8.7%, marking the 10th consecutive month inflation was above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target range.

The central bank also raised its average inflation forecast to 6.1% this year from 4.5% previously.

Oxford Economics said that the BSP will continue to hike rates to tame inflation and keep in step with the US Federal Reserve.

“Elevated inflation means policy makers will not be able to react by lowering interest rates. Indeed, we expect tightening to continue for at least the next two meetings, albeit at a slower pace — in contrast to other Asian central banks who can afford to pause,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

Oxford Economics also cited the lack of policy support as a factor contributing to slower growth this year.

“We think significant support is unlikely given limited policy space on both the monetary and fiscal front. Ideally, fiscal policy would take over the burden of supporting growth. But debt accumulated during the pandemic era means the focus is instead on fiscal consolidation,” Mr. Tsuchiya said, noting that the Philippine government may adopt a more restrained approach in spending.

Oxford Economics expects the budget deficit will reach 2.7% of GDP by 2028, better than the 3% projection given by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC).

The government projects the fiscal deficit to hit 6.9% of GDP or around P1.5 trillion this year. In the 11 months to November, the budget deficit shrank by 7.2% to P1.24 trillion.

However, Oxford Economics said the debt-to-GDP ratio may remain elevated at 61.1% by 2025. This is higher than the 60% target set by the government in the same period.

The country ended last year with a debt stock at 60.9%, better than the 63.7% seen in end-September but still above the 60% threshold considered manageable by multilateral lenders for developing economies.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Oxford Economics’ prediction about 4.1% economic growth for the Philippines this year will turn out to be true? Do you think Oxford Economics made a strong case explaining why economic growth in 2023 will be smaller for the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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For more South Metro Manila community news and developments, come back here soon. Also say NO to fake news, NO to irresponsible journalism, NO to misinformation, NO to plagiarists, NO to reckless publishers and NO to sinister propaganda when it comes to news and developments. For South Metro Manila community developments, member engagements, commerce and other relevant updates, join the growing South Metro Manila Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/342183059992673

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