finance – Author Carlo Carrasco

Online lending company raided by police for threatening clients

May 22, 2023May 17, 2023carlocarrasco

Are you a Philippine resident who borrowed money from an online lending company and got threatened by them to push you into paying them back? Another company that lends money got raided by the police over complaints from clients who claimed they were threatened, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The raided company was located in Pasig City.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news article. Some parts in boldface…

An online lending company in Barangay San Miguel, Pasig City was raided by operatives of the Philippine National Police – Anti-Cybercrime Group (ACG) on Tuesday, May 16, for allegedly threatening and harassing its customers who have failed to pay their loans.

The company was identified as Realm Shifters Business Process Outsourcing Services, located along Mercedes Avenue in Barangay San Miguel.

According to the Philippine Association of Loan Shark Victims Inc. (PALSVI), a non-profit organization dedicated to helping loan shark victims, the company is one of the many businesses operating online lending applications (OLA) that harass and threaten users for not paying their debts.

The PNP-ACG conducted the raid in response to the complaints made to their office from the victims of the OLA.

A warrant to search and seize computer data was served by the police to the company during the operation.

Digital forensic examinations to extract data and evidence from the computers, mobile phones, and other devices of the OLA agents are ongoing.

Other incidents of malpractice made by the company are also under further investigation by the police.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? How many people in your local community got harassed by an online lending firm recently?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

BIR targeting online sellers

March 20, 2023March 13, 2023carlocarrasco

If you have been engaging on selling items or services online, you should be aware that the Philippines’ authority on taxation the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is constantly watching you and it is seeking ways to tax you, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Already the BIR has been communicating with the e-commerce platforms.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

THE BUREAU of Internal Revenue (BIR) is looking to collect taxes from online sellers on e-commerce platforms more efficiently.

BIR Commissioner Romeo D. Lumagui said it is difficult to monitor taxes on individual online sellers on e-commerce platforms.

“We’re in constant communication with the platforms, because it’s a challenge to monitor. We’re thinking of ways to approach it because if we look at individual online sellers, it’s a bit difficult. It’s a challenge,” he told reporters on Thursday evening.

Mr. Lumagui said the BIR is prioritizing ways to better collect taxes from online sellers and other new platforms this year.

The pandemic forced many entrepreneurs to shift to online selling using e-commerce platforms like Shopee and Lazada, as well as social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and Tiktok.

As of 2022, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) estimated there are around two million entities doing business as online sellers.

In 2021, the digital economy contributed 9.6% to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), or about P1.87 trillion. DigiPinas, the multi-sectoral initiative led by UBX Philippines Corp., earlier said the Philippine digital economy can grow to as much as $150 billion or about P8.3 trillion in the next decade.

Meanwhile, Mr. Lumagui said the BIR will tap social media influencers to help educate the public on the importance of paying taxes.

“They have reach and I think that one way of making people comply with tax obligations is to educate the people since tax is a very complicated topic not easy to understand,” he said, adding the BIR will schedule a dialogue with them.

Mr. Lumagui said the BIR will continue its efforts to collect taxes from social media influencers, since they’re earning income. He noted there are already some who are undergoing tax audits.

“What we want is to dialogue with them that these are your obligations as social media influencers, you’re earning from whatever you’re doing, so this is your responsibility as income earners,” he said.

The BIR said it collected around P44.6 billion worth of tax from online content creators and retail sales at the end of 2021.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? If you have been selling products or services online for the last twelve months, do you think the BIR’s move with taxing your business will negatively affect Philippine e-commerce as a whole? Have you set aside enough money for potential taxation by the BIR? What is the one thing about online selling that made you stay away from selling through physical establishments like a store?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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AIA Philippines’ investment management arm expresses optimism of robust growth of the Philippine economy

March 1, 2023February 24, 2023carlocarrasco

Recently, the investment management arm of AIA Philippines expressed confidence that the Philippine economy will continue to have robust growth in connection with what they claim to be an expanding manufacturing sector, according to news article published by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the PNA news report. Some parts in boldface…

An official of the investment management arm of AIA Philippines is optimistic on the robust growth of the domestic economy as the manufacturing sector continues to expand.

In a briefing on Thursday, AIA Investment Management and Trust Corporation Philippines (AIAIM Philippines) chief executive officer Angie Pacis said the country’s manufacturing sector is expected to continue posting expansion following the seven-month high manufacturing index in January 2023.

“Notwithstanding the slight weakening of the business confidence and consumer confidence, businesses will still be on a growth track,” she said.

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) hit 53.5 in the first month this year. An index of 50 and above indicate expansion while those below 50 indicate contraction.

Pacis said forecasts point to continued 50-level index in the coming months.

Pacis also identified demographic dividends as among the factors that will help boost domestic growth this year given the large number of young people who are part of the workforce.

“It’s a young population, it’s a big population with a growing middle class that is actually becoming stronger. Because of that, we will continue to attract investments notwithstanding some of the structural problems,” she added.

These factors are seen to boost one-year-old AIAIM Philippine business, which currently offers three unit investment trust funds (UITFS) namely AIA Peso Adventurous Fund, AIA Peso Balanced Fund and AIA Peso Conservative Fund.

Pacis said the products they are offering are exclusively available for AIA Philippines policy holders for now, while the assets amounting to PHP155 billion they currently have will be handled purely without catering to outside investors.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this new development? Were you able to understand the explanations from AIA Philippines investment management arm?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below and also please consider sharing this article to others. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. If you want to support my website, please consider making a donation. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco/.

Oxford Economics says Philippine economic growth will slow down to 4.1% this year

February 28, 2023February 23, 2023carlocarrasco

For Oxford Economics, the economy of the Philippines will achieve continued growth in 2023 but with a notable slow down to 4.1%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Oxford Economics mentioned in its statement factors like the global economy entering recession, inflation and the lack of impact from China’s reopening.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH is expected to slow to 4.1% this year, as external headwinds and elevated inflation are seen to dampen domestic demand, Oxford Economics said.

“After registering respectable growth of 7.6% in 2022, we expect the Philippines’ economy to slow to 4.1% amid global headwinds, elevated inflation, and a fading reopening boost. With monetary tightening set to continue, the economy could use a hand from the fiscal side, but chances are slim,” Makoto Tsuchiya, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said in a research note released on Wednesday.

Oxford Economics’ gross domestic product (GDP) projection is well below the government’s 6-7% target.

It expects GDP to expand by 4.5% next year, still outside the 6.5-8% target set by the government.

“We expect GDP growth to slow materially amid softer external demand as the global economy enters a recession, led by weakness in major advanced economies. We don’t think China’s reopening will be enough to offset this weakness, with the recovery in private consumption there likely to be lackluster,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

There is a widely anticipated global recession this year, with the World Bank projecting global growth to slow to 1.7%.

Rising inflation is also seen to “substantially” slow the Philippine economy, Mr. Tsuchiya said.

In January, inflation soared to a 14-year high of 8.7%, marking the 10th consecutive month inflation was above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target range.

The central bank also raised its average inflation forecast to 6.1% this year from 4.5% previously.

Oxford Economics said that the BSP will continue to hike rates to tame inflation and keep in step with the US Federal Reserve.

“Elevated inflation means policy makers will not be able to react by lowering interest rates. Indeed, we expect tightening to continue for at least the next two meetings, albeit at a slower pace — in contrast to other Asian central banks who can afford to pause,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

Oxford Economics also cited the lack of policy support as a factor contributing to slower growth this year.

“We think significant support is unlikely given limited policy space on both the monetary and fiscal front. Ideally, fiscal policy would take over the burden of supporting growth. But debt accumulated during the pandemic era means the focus is instead on fiscal consolidation,” Mr. Tsuchiya said, noting that the Philippine government may adopt a more restrained approach in spending.

Oxford Economics expects the budget deficit will reach 2.7% of GDP by 2028, better than the 3% projection given by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC).

The government projects the fiscal deficit to hit 6.9% of GDP or around P1.5 trillion this year. In the 11 months to November, the budget deficit shrank by 7.2% to P1.24 trillion.

However, Oxford Economics said the debt-to-GDP ratio may remain elevated at 61.1% by 2025. This is higher than the 60% target set by the government in the same period.

The country ended last year with a debt stock at 60.9%, better than the 63.7% seen in end-September but still above the 60% threshold considered manageable by multilateral lenders for developing economies.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Oxford Economics’ prediction about 4.1% economic growth for the Philippines this year will turn out to be true? Do you think Oxford Economics made a strong case explaining why economic growth in 2023 will be smaller for the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BIR says half a trillion Pesos lost to tax evasion each year

February 27, 2023February 21, 2023carlocarrasco

Tax evasion remains a very serious problem in the Philippines. As far as the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is concerned, the authorities lose around half a trillion Pesos each year due to tax evasion, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

THE GOVERNMENT loses around P500 billion annually to tax evasion, according to a top Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) official.

“There is a lot, especially if we include those involved in illicit trade. In cigarettes alone, there’s around P100 billion,” BIR Commissioner Romeo D. Lumagui, Jr. said, when asked about revenue losses from tax evasion.

“Leakages aren’t part of that yet, like petroleum or vape products that aren’t registered, as well as fake receipts. I think it won’t go below P500 billion if you add everything up,” he added.

Mr. Lumagui said the BIR will have an easier time achieving its collection targets if it addresses tax evasion.

Earlier this month, the BIR filed 74 tax evasion complaints worth P3.5 billion against several companies.

“We will tailor efforts to improve digital services so businesses will leave the shadow economy and join the tax net. We will now focus on enforcement activities against tax evaders, put emphasis on tapping uncollected taxes through illegal activities,” Mr. Lumagui said.

The BIR is currently monitoring and investigating a number of suspected tax evaders.

“The most important right now is the selling of fake receipts and we know who (they are). We are investigating so we can file a case against those involved,” Mr. Lumagui said.

The BIR is targeting to collect P2.6 trillion in revenues this year.

“With all our activities and efforts we are making, we will be able to achieve the tax collection target,” he said.

In 2022, the agency collected a total of P2.34 trillion, surpassing its P2.1-trillion target.

Meanwhile, Mr. Lumagui said the agency will also review its policies after the Supreme Court declared void its regulations that require firms to disclose the personal information of investors.

“We must respect the privacy (of these investors) but when it comes to the correct amount of taxes, the BIR has auditing power. There is still a need to pay taxes and the compliance of these businesses needs to be monitored. When it comes to determining the correct amount of taxes, we can investigate that,” he added.

The Supreme Court declared that the BIR Revenue Regulations No. 1-2014 and Revenue Memorandum Circular (RMC) No. 5-2014 “void for being unconstitutional” as it violated the right to privacy.

The regulations require businesses to disclose investor information such as addresses, tax identification number (TIN), and birthdays, among others.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the BIR will be able to collect P2.6 trillion this year even with tax evasion still going on? What do you think should be done to eradicate tax evasion all over the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines achieves 7.6% economic growth in 2022

January 30, 2023January 26, 2023carlocarrasco

The Philippines’ recovery from the downturn of the COVID-19 crisis continued strongly as it has been confirmed that the national economy expanded by 7.6% for the entire year of 2022 which includes a 7.2% 4^th quarter economic growth, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). Take note that the Philippines is expected to grow between 6.5% and 7% in 2023 according to the national authorities while there are signs that the United States economy will fall into a recession this year. Regardless, the Philippines ended 2022 competitively in terms of economic expansion among its Asian neighbors.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the PNA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy expanded by 7.2 percent in the last quarter of 2022, bringing full-year growth to 7.6 percent, driven by increased economic activity mainly from pent-up demand as it fully reopened amid elevated inflation rate.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said among the major emerging economies in the region that have released their fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the Philippines grew the fastest, followed by Vietnam at 5.9 percent and China at 2.9 percent.  

“Our improved Covid-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) risk management and the easing of mobility restrictions have created a positive economic outlook, boosting economic activity and creating more jobs despite external headwinds,” he said in a briefing on Thursday.

Balisacan said measures being implemented by the government to further buoy the economy’s recovery are working.

“Our strong economic growth performance for 2022 proves that our calibrated policies and strategies have helped put us on the path to recovery and on track to achieving our aspiration for an inclusive, prosperous, and resilient society by 2028,” he said.

Balisacan said pent-up demand drove growth in the fourth quarter as the economy was fully reopened during the period, with household consumption accounting for around three-fourths of domestic output, and investments contributing around a fifth.

“The improvements in labor market conditions, increased tourism, revenge and holiday spending, and resumption of face-to-face classes supported growth in the quarter, further reflecting a solid rebound in consumer and investor confidence in the economy,” he said.

Balisacan said had it not been for the elevated inflation rate, which rose to its highest since November 2008 last December when it accelerated to 8.1 percent, “growth could have been higher by another perhaps 1 to 2 percentage points.”

“It shows how overall demand is sensitive to inflation,” he added.

In terms of the volume of economic activities, Balisacan said domestic growth has recovered for many sectors, except for others such as tourism.

“(But) in so far as per capital income… we haven’t fully recovered yet,” he said.

Balisacan said the government is firm on ensuring that quality jobs will be available to Filipinos to lessen their need to work abroad.

“Inclusive growth across the archipelago will be our vehicle for reducing poverty incidence from 18 percent of the population in 2021 to a single-digit level by 2028,” he said.

National Statistician Dennis Mapa said 2022 full year GDP growth of 7.6 percent exceeded the government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent growth assumption for the year and the highest after the 8.8 percent in 1976.

Mapa said the fourth-quarter growth, slower than the 7.6 percent in the previous quarter, was driven by the wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, financial and insurance activities and retail estate and ownership of dwellings boosted domestic growth.

He said domestic demand remained strong, with the household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) rising by 2.1 percent quarter-on-quarter, led by the restaurants and hotels, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and miscellaneous goods and services. Year-on-year expansion of HFCE stood at 7 percent.

Among the major economic industries, Mapa said agriculture, forestry, and fishing contracted by 1.7 percent because of the lower output of sugarcane, palay (rice), and poultry and egg production.

Meanwhile, Balisacan said the government is doing pro-active assessment of the current situation to address the elevated inflation rate in the country, which is expected to go back to within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target band by the second half of this year.

He said the government continues to allow the importation of several food items to boost domestic supply, adding that not doing so will hurt both the consumers and domestic growth.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this new development? Do you believe that the economy of the Philippine economy will grow between 6.5% to 7% this year? Do you think that more foreign tourists coming into the country will be able to help the nation achieve its economic growth targets this year? Apart from what was already mentioned, what do you think the national government should do to combat inflation? Do you think that the lower income tax for middle income earners will make a positive contribution to economic growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Finance Secretary Diokno says the national economy is resilient enough to face post-pandemic world

January 27, 2023January 26, 2023carlocarrasco

Recently in a high-level economic meeting in Germany, Philippines Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno declared that the national economy is resilient enough for the post-pandemic world and that the national government has been making adjustments, according to a news article published by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the PNA news report. Some parts in boldface…

Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno on Monday told foreign investors and business leaders that the Philippine economy is resilient enough and that the government is doing its best to address post-pandemic challenges.

Diokno made the remarks during the Philippine economic briefing attended by the economic managers in Frankfurt, Germany that was streamed through various government agency Facebook pages.

The Finance chief noted that inflation is also a concern in the Philippines just like in other countries, but measures are being undertaken by the government to address the issue, such as managing prices by ensuring adequate supplies of agricultural products, and boosting the agriculture sector’s capacity and productivity to help address the rising commodity prices, among others.

“We also are continuing the importation of necessary commodities to ease inflation,” he said.

The government has allowed the continued importation of rice, sugar, and meat, which are among the primary factor for the elevated food prices due to supply issues.

Relatively, Diokno assured investors that the government has put in place a fiscal consolidation program to address the uptick in government liabilities, due in part to the increased borrowing to finance pandemic-related programs.

He identified three factors that will support the government’s fiscal consolidation and one of this is the fact that “only a small fraction of our outstanding debt is exposed to interest rate resetting.”

This, as bulk of the government liabilities are sourced from domestic fund sources, with around 75 percent of the borrowing program allocated to the domestic market.

“We already have anticipated the tightening monetary policy conditions when we formulated the interest rate payments in the 2023 budget,” Diokno said.

He added that “government securities market is dominated by local players that are bank-centric and homogeneous in investment governance.”

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this new development? Do you believe that the economy of the Philippines is resilient enough for the post-pandemic age even as there are concerns about high inflation and economic slowdown around the world? Do you believe that the national government has what it takes to make key adjustments to unforeseen developments that could happen anytime? Are you convinced that foreign investors as well as foreign tourists will come into the Philippines in great numbers over the next eighteen months? How is your local government doing when it comes to economic developments like livelihood, jobs training and other related activities?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Last tranche of salary increase for Muntinlupa City government employees announced

January 24, 2023January 23, 2023carlocarrasco

In the progressive City of Muntinlupa, Mayor Ruffy Biazon announced the last tranche of salary increases for City Government employees, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The raise of the salaries is in accordance to law and it will take effect very soon.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

Muntinlupa Mayor Ruffy Biazon announced on Jan. 23 that city government employees will get their salary increases by the end of the month.

This is based on Republic Act 11466 or the Salary Standardization Law of 2019.

The fourth and last tranche of the salary increases for qualified government employees took effect on Jan. 1, according to the Department of Budget and Management (DBM). The first tranche of the salary increase took effect on Jan. 1, 2020.

“Good news para po sa kawani ng pamahalaan. Pagdating po ng katapusan ng buwang ito ay pai-implement na ang fourth tranche ng Salary Standardization Law (Good newas for employees of the government. By the end of this month, the fourth tranche of the Salary Standardization Law will be implemented),” said Biazon during the flag raising ceremony at the Muntinlupa City hall on Jan. 23.

Under RA 11466, the monthly salary of a government employee under Salary Grade 1 will increase to P13,000 (under Step 1 level) in the fourth tranche compared to P11,551 in the first tranche.

“The government recognizes the indispensable role of its dedicated personnel in serving our beloved country. We are firmly committed to help them amidst rising prices of goods and services. We hope this latest salary increase will cushion the impact of inflation,” said Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman.

According to DBM, RA 11466 covers all positions for civilian personnel, whether regular, casual, or contractual in nature, appointive or elective, full-time or part-time, now existing or created in the executive, legislative, and judicial branches; constitutional commissions and other constitutional offices; state universities and colleges (SUCs); and government-owned or controlled corporations (GOCCs) not covered by RA 10149.

The law also applies to all positions for salaried LGU personnel, whether regular, contractual or casual in nature, elective or appointive; on full-time or part-time basis, now existing or thereafter created in LGUs, and all positions for barangay personnel which are paid monthly honoraria, the DBM added.

Excluded under the law are those engaged without employer-employee relationship and funded from non-Personnel Services (PS) appropriations/budgets.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: If you are a Muntinlupa City resident, what is your reaction to this development? As a local resident, do you think the salary hike for City Government employees is justified?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine government sees economy growing around 6.5% for 2023

January 23, 2023January 17, 2023carlocarrasco

Even though HSBC and the World Bank revealed their own 2023 economic growth forecasts for the Philippines to be below 6%, the national government still sees the economy growing around 6.5% this year, according to a recent Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine government expects a strong full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2022, most likely much faster than its growth target of 6.5 to 7.5 percent, Department of Finance (DOF) Secretary Benjamin Diokno said here on Jan. 16 (Switzerland time).

Diokno said this during a Monday luncheon hosted for President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Philippine chief executive officers (CEOs) in Davos, Switzerland.

In addition, Diokno said the Philippine economy is seen to “grow by around 6.5 percent this year” due to the expected slowdown of the global economy.

“And that’s still one of the highest, if not the highest, growth projection in the Asia-Pacific Region,” he said.

According to Diokno, the country’s bustling manufacturing sector, record-low unemployment, and stable and resilient banking system can alleviate buffers against external headwinds, all indicating a resilient economy.

Further, opening economic sectors to foreign equity, improving the ease of doing business, and allowing modern transformative industries to take root and grow will sustain the economy.

At the same time, the Finance chief said the Marcos government has created a more competitive and enabling environment through public-private partnership (PPP) to expand further the Build, Better, More infrastructure agenda of the administration.

Diokno said this would further boost investments on top of the government’s goal to spend at least five to six percent of GDP on infrastructure, stressing all these form the backbone for the rapid and sustained growth of the Philippines.

But because of the current challenges, he said the Philippines is taking the first steps toward launching the Maharlika Investment Fund, the country’s first-ever sovereign wealth fund that will support the goals set by the administration in the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this new development? Do you believe that the Philippines’ economic fundamentals are strong enough to keep the economy growing around 6.5% this year? Do you think that the tourism industry alone will be a major driving force of economic growth and earning foreign currency? Apart from the announced Maharlika Investment Fund (sovereign wealth fund) new economic initiatives do you want to see from President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr.?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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HSBC sees Philippine economy growth of 4.4% for 2023 due to key factors

January 12, 2023January 6, 2023carlocarrasco

HSBC, one of the biggest players of the global financial industry, recently made its forecast of the Philippines growing economically at 4.4% for the year 2023, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). There are certain factors mentioned in HSBC’s assessment for the nation.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the PNA article. Some parts in boldface…

Hikes in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) key policy rates are expected to dampen the strong domestic output for 2023, with an executive of HSBC forecasting a 4.4 percent expansion this year.

In a virtual briefing on Thursday, HSBC chief investment officer for Southeast Asia, Global Private Banking and Wealth, James Cheo, said private consumption contributed to the strong recovery of the domestic economy last year but this is seen to be limited by the monetary tightening aimed to temper the elevated inflation rate.

Other factors that boosted gross domestic product (GDP) last year include investments, higher government spending on infrastructure and increased mobility following the resumption of face-to-face schooling, he said.

“Looking into 2023, the country’s growth will slow and the recovery is going to be more gradual as the reopening boost fades and monetary tightening weighs on domestic demand,” Cheo said.

As of the third quarter of last year, growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), rose by 7.76 percent, exceeding the government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent growth assumption for this year.

The BSP’s key rates have been hiked by 350 basis points from May to December last year, after being at record-low of 2 percent in 2020, as monetary authorities help address the elevated inflation rate.

Last December, domestic rate of price increases further accelerated to 8.1 percent, the highest since November 2008, due to faster annual jumps in goods and energy prices.

Cheo said “household’s consumption in 2023 will likely be curtailed” given the elevated inflation rate.

“Strong employment, tourism recovery, expanding production and retail sales, and public investment will continue to support growth in 2023,” he said.

With inflation expected to remain high, Cheo projects the BSP to make three consecutive 25 basis point increases this year, “pausing at 6.25 percent by Q2 (second quarter) 2023” and keeping this decision until at least the second half of 2024.

The above article ended with HSBC predicting that the Philippine Peso will weaken to the United States Dollar at a rate of US$1 = P56.50.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you believe that inflation and interest rates will somehow slow down the ongoing economic growth later this year? Do you think that Philippine tourism will become a factor to help the Philippine economy grow at least 5% this year? What do you think the national government and its economic managers should do to maintain strong growth as the nation keeps on recovering from the depression of the COVID-19 crisis? Have you been managing your personal or business finances carefully recently?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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