Middle East – Author Carlo Carrasco

Vietnam Tourism Insiders Say Easier Entry, Stronger Connectivity and Better Tourism Services Are Needed

October 13, 2026October 6, 2026carlocarrasco

Having attracted almost eighteen million foreign tourists in the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam is clearly one of the must-visit places not only in Southeast Asia but in Asia as a whole. For some tourism insiders, however, Vietnam needs easier entry, strong connectivity by air and land and better tourism services to bridge the so-called competitiveness gap with its Southeast Asian neighbors, according to a news article by VnExpress.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of VnExpress. Some parts in boldface…

Vietnam needs easier entry, stronger air and land connectivity, better tourism services, and stricter environmental enforcement to bridge its competitiveness gap with Southeast Asian rivals, tourism insiders have said.

The country climbed seven places to 52nd out of 110 economies in the World Economic Forum’s 2026 Travel and Tourism Development Index, its highest ranking since the Covid-19 pandemic.

But it ranked behind major Southeast Asian markets. Singapore was 13th globally, Indonesia was 23rd, Malaysia was 26th, and Thailand was 38th.

The expansion of visa-free policy for more nationalities remains an important feature of Vietnam’s strategy to develop its tourism industry.

Martin Koerner, commercial director of The Anam Group, a chain of Vietnamese luxury resorts, tells VnExpress International: “Vietnam should continue to make entry as frictionless as possible. Visa policies have improved considerably, but we should continue benchmarking ourselves against the easiest destinations in the region.”

Every additional administrative barrier matters when an international traveler can choose between Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other destinations, he says.

Vietnam has made it easier for foreign visitors to enter and stay in the country, including through 90-day e-visas and 45-day visa exemptions for citizens of 24 countries, including several in Europe.

But the country has not yet waived visas for some major tourism markets such as China and India, unlike Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines.

Vietnam also needs stronger air connectivity, with more direct flights from major cities in Europe, Australia, North America, India, and the Middle East as connections influence long-haul travelers’ destination choices, Koerner adds.

Dr Matt Kim, a lecturer in tourism and hospitality management at RMIT Vietnam, says infrastructure and accessibility require further improvement, particularly international air connectivity and transport links between destinations in the country.

Long Thanh International Airport scheduled to begin commercial operation later this year will be transformational, but an airport alone does not create a destination, he says.

Efficient connections between airports and tourism centers, better roads, rail infrastructure, and seamless domestic transportation will be equally important, he says.

He wants the tourism industry to improve service quality and develop skilled professionals.

“To compete more effectively with regional destinations such as Thailand and Singapore, Vietnam needs to improve not only its facilities, but also service standards and professional training.“

Environmental pollution is another concern, with foreign tourists frequently complaining about it despite praising Vietnam’s scenery.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you agree with the opinions of the tourism insiders about what Vietnam needs to do to remain competitive with its regional neighbors? If you have been to Vietnam over the past six months, how do you rate the quality of entry, tourism services, air-land connectivity and the tourism workers? With the way things are going now, do you think Vietnam will be able to attract 30 million foreign tourists in 2027 or 2028?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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I Love Israel: 2,000-Year-Old Discovery in Israel Reveals Lost Community

October 12, 2026October 5, 2026carlocarrasco

While the rest of the world has been busy with political, economic and military developments, something very tremendous happened recently in Israel, and it is about a 2,000-year-old discovery that reveals a lost community and it further proves the Jewish heritage in the Holy Land is real, according to a news article by CBN News. The discovery is also a reminder about John’s baptisms.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the CBN News article. Some parts in boldface.

A 2,000-year-old archaeological marvel has been unearthed in southern Israel, revealing a mysterious community lost to time and the latest proof of the ancient Jewish connection to the Holy Land.

The major discovery took place in Kiryat Gat, near the site of the ancient Philistine city of Gath, where Goliath came from.

The find, a mikveh ritual immersion pool, provides evidence of a Jewish community that remained in the region following the destruction of the Second Temple in 70 AD and persisted until the Bar Kokhba revolt – the final Jewish rebellion against the Roman Empire.

The mikveh was used for spiritual purification or holiness, which the Bible refers to in the book of Leviticus, and its discovery is a reminder of a Second Temple-era tradition that’s linked to the introduction of Christians baptisms.

Israeli tour guide Yoav Rotem tells CBN News, “These are the roots of the baptism of John… John the Baptist… Going from Leviticus through Judaism of the Second Temple time all the way to John the Baptist and Jesus, these are the roots, and they’re still in the ground.”

To preserve the mikveh, the Israel Antiquities Authority dug up the entire ritual bath and removed it from the site.

Rotem argues that this discovery is the latest archaeological proof that the Jewish population wasn’t entirely absent from the region after the Romans tried to wipe them out. While some uninformed anti-Israel activists claim the Jews just popped up and took over the holy land in 1948, Rotem says the Jews have clear ties to the land that are constantly being unearthed.

He also cited historical letters, the Cairo Geniza archive of 400,000 ancient manuscripts in Hebrew, Aramaic and Arabic, that provide further proof, in addition to the many substantial, ongoing archaeological discoveries of ancient Jewish presence in the land.

“There’s a huge amount of information from historical information to archaeological to letters between rabbis, of Jewish appearance (or presence)… The Jews are still alive after 70 (AD). Some of them, minorities, staying in the land, a lot of Jews moving to the Galilee,” he explained.

For additional insight, watch the CBN News YouTube video below.

To all my readers, I encourage you to thank the Lord for this tremendous breakthrough in Israel. No matter what the anti-Israel activists say, the ancient Jewish heritage in the land of Israel is absolutely real backed with physical pieces of evidence and ancient diggings achieved. Clearly, Israel is the land of Jews, not the Palestinians.

At the same time, I encourage you all to realize the truth that Israel is the land God designated specifically for the Jewish people (read Genesis 35:10-12) and His command must be followed without hesitation. If you want to be blessed further by the Lord, do so by loving and blessing the Jewish people (Genesis 12:1-3). I did my part when I was in Israel. Also, let me remind you all that the ties between the Jews and Christians are truly biblical!

I encourage you all to pray to the Lord God in support of Israel, to love and bless the Jewish people, and pray for the peace of Jerusalem.

If you truly believe in Lord Jesus, the Holy Spirit and God the Heavenly Father wholeheartedly and you continue to be faithful, you should be aware that Christians are meant to stand united with Israel and love the Jewish people no matter what. You can do your part supporting Israel by donating to Christians United for Israel (CUFI). Do not forget to read the Holy Bible, then pray in tongues to the Lord in the privacy of your room with the door shut.

Always be the fearless and aggressive church of Lord Jesus!

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Philippines Economic Weakness Continues As 2nd Quarter GDP Growth Lands At 2.3%

August 9, 2026August 7, 2026carlocarrasco

The economy of the Philippines slowed down even further in the 2^nd quarter of 2026 landing at 2.3%, according to a news report by GMA News. Embarrassingly, this made the Philippines an economic weakling among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

By comparison, the economy of the Philippines achieved only 2.8% growth in the 1^st quarter of this year. The nation’s economic growth for 2025 was at 4.4%

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA News report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy continued to slow down in the second quarter of 2026, still due to a subdued investor and consumer sentiment amid the lingering effects of the flood control corruption scandal and the inflationary pressure brought by Middle East crisis-induced global fuel price shocks, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Friday.

At a press conference, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa said the economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of goods and services produced in a period— grew 2.3% in the April to June 2026 period, slower than the 2.8% growth seen in the first quarter of 2026.

This is the economy’s weakest footing since the fourth quarter of 2009 —excluding the contraction seen during the COVID-19 pandemic years— when the GDP growth rate was at 1.8%.

The 2.8% second quarter GDP growth put the Philippines behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia that already released their April to June economic growth rates such as Indonesia at 5.29%, Vietnam at 8.39%, and Singapore at 5.7%.

The first half of 2026 GDP growth rate stood at 2.6%, still behind the government’s downwardly revised target of 3.5% to 4.5% for the entire year.

Despite the economic slowdown, Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said, “What we are experiencing right now, I believe, is transitory, temporary.”

“Domestic demand remained subdued, mainly because total investment continued to contract as public construction declined. Household consumption growth also moderated amid higher inflation, job losses, and lower remittance receipts arising from the Middle East conflict,” Balisacan said.

Household final consumption expenditure grew 2.8%, slower than 5.2% in the same period last year, weighed by contractions in transport (-7.5%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (-1.9%), recreation and culture (-0.8%), and restaurants and hotels (-0.2%).

Government expenditure, likewise, slowed down by 8.3% from 8.7% year-on-year; while gross capital formation (GCF) —which measures investments— contracted by 9.2% from a growth rate of 0.9% a year ago.

The decline in GCF was due to the decline in construction at 14.8% with government spending on construction contracting 32.4%.

“Although public construction is a small part of the economy, the amount of contraction, at 32%, brought a significant impact on the economy,” Balisacan said.

“The sharp decline in public construction was the main contributor in the decline in investments… driven by continuous caution due to the flood control scandal,” the country’s chief economist said.

Among the major economic sectors, agriculture posted a growth rate of 2.7%, slower than 7% year-on-year; industry declined by 2.4%, from an increase of 2.1% weighed by the construction’s depreciation; services grew slower at 4.5% from 6.9%.

Agriculture, industry, and services sector contributed 7.5%, 27.9%, and 63.3%, respectively to the total GDP during the quarter.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will eventually fall into a recession in 2027? Do you believe that the hosting of the ASEAN summit by the Philippines will result in economic miracles and more foreign investment?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Remains Vulnerable To Effects Of US-Iran War And Is One Of The Least Resilient In The Asia Pacific Region

July 18, 2026July 14, 2026carlocarrasco

When it comes to resilience to the effects of the war between the United States and the Islamic terrorist regime of Iran, the Philippines remains not only vulnerable but also one of the laggards of the Asia Pacific region as a whole, according to a news report by the Manila Bulletin.

Be reminded that the Philippines is experiencing weak economic growth, high inflation, and has been weak when it comes to attracting foreign direct investment. Already S&P Global slashed GDP growth forecast for the Philippines.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

Asia-Pacific’s (APAC) relative insulation from the Middle East conflict has singled out the Philippines and Indonesia as laggards as external headwinds are exacerbated by domestic turmoil, according to Allianz Research.

Allianz Research said in its half-time outlook report published last week that despite emerging as one of the regions most exposed to the United States (US)-Iran conflict, APAC is still seen as relatively resilient, with average growth of 4.3 percent this year.

This resilience is attributed to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, which is “doing the heavy lifting that geopolitics and fiscal policy cannot.”

“However, gains are far from evenly shared, with a group of winners emerging, including countries such as Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea, while countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia lag as domestic turmoil compounds exposure to the conflict,” Allianz said.

Apart from the technology surge, the report also pointed to Asia’s role as a global engine of commerce. “In 2026, 80 percent of global trade volume growth in goods and services is driven by Asia and the US,” the report said.

However, this dominance faces fresh challenges from shifting American trade policies. Allianz warned that the shift in US policies “is expected to negatively affect Asian countries in particular,” as the US effective tariff rate is projected to rise from eight percent to 13 percent.

According to Allianz, the region’s resilience hinges on the booming technology sector. It said the AI boom, which has been driving nearly two-thirds of Asia’s export growth, is helping “cushion” the global economy from the impact of the Middle East crisis.

This AI boom is broadening Asia’s recovery beyond traditional manufacturing, with major semiconductor firms in Taiwan and South Korea leading regional market gains.

By contrast, the Philippines and Indonesia are struggling with the lingering consequences of energy shocks.

“Despite recent developments toward normalization in the Gulf, we expect inflation to remain elevated in the near term as second-round effects from elevated fuel, energy and fertilizer prices keep weighing on the region,” Allianz said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think the Philippines should do in order to become more resilient to the effects of the war between America and the Islamic terrorist regime of Iran? Do you think the national government has been working to improve oil storage capacity, attract more foreign investors and rely less on the Middle East for importing oil? Do you think the Philippines will reach out to the Islamic terrorist regime of Iran to make an economic deal?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines At Risk Of Losing Ground In Global Supply Chain

July 4, 2026June 29, 2026carlocarrasco

If the Philippines fails to address the high costs of energy and the ongoing corruption connected with infrastructure projects, it could lose ground in global supply chains, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES risks losing ground in global supply chains unless it addresses high energy costs and unresolved corruption issues surrounding infrastructure projects, which continue to weigh on investor sentiment, according to UK-based risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.

“The Philippines’ biggest infrastructure challenge is its relatively high cost of energy, which has been exacerbated by the Hormuz crisis,” Laura Schwartz, a senior Asia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in an e-mailed reply to BusinessWorld.

“Following the onset of the crisis, there was some movement in fast-tracking renewable energy projects, but more will be needed,” she added.

The Philippines, which sources at least 90% of its oil supply from the Middle East, has been one of the most affected by the global oil crisis.

Ms. Schwartz also said last year’s corruption scandal — which linked state officials and contractors in substandard or nonexistent flood control projects — may deter companies that are seeking to diversify their supply chains from investing in the Philippines.

“High-profile governance issues, particularly the widespread public works corruption allegations and political jockeying, are one of the top factors leading to investor hesitation in the near term,” she said.

In its 2026 Supply Chain Risk Outlook, Verisk Maplecroft identified the Philippines, Thailand, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay as “rising stars” in the global supply chain.

“Relative to the established hubs, these ‘rising stars’ offer different mixes of sector capability, market openness, regulatory strengths, and labor-risk trajectories for organizations looking to realign their supply chains,” it said in the report released on June 23.

“The businesses that move first — screening these markets now, building supplier relationships before demand spikes, and stress-testing entry strategies against external risk data — will find themselves better positioned to act when faced with disruptive geopolitical realignment, trade restrictions, or conflict outbreaks,” Verisk Maplecroft said.

A third of the world’s busiest ports and airports are vulnerable to disruption amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts, environmental challenges, and domestic security threats, the firm noted.

The closing of the Strait of Hormuz has created near-term headwinds for the Philippines and Thailand, Verisk Maplecroft said.

Despite this, “procurement teams willing to take a longer-term view will find these markets worth their attention,” the company added.

The report cited the Philippines’ strong potential in the global supply chain due to improvements in its market openness, its competitive labor costs, and its young, English-fluent workforce.

“The Philippines performs second-best across the Southeast Asian economies analyzed due to significant improvement in our market openness pillar,” it said.

“Despite lower infrastructure quality and governance challenges, including recent corruption scandals, the Philippines shows notable opportunities in sectors like electronics, auto parts, and food manufacturing,” Verisk Maplecroft said.

Other Southeast Asian economies assessed in the report were Singapore, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Myanmar.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the government of the Philippines has the will to resolve high energy costs and the ongoing corruption on infrastructure projects? Do you think the Philippines could get more affordable oil from places other than the Middle East?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines’ Bid For United Nations Security Council Seat Rejected

June 5, 2026June 4, 2026carlocarrasco

The Philippines, which previously supported the creation of a Palestinian state and discussed cooperation with the Islamic terrorist regime of Iran, badly lost in its bid for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as only forty-nine nations voted for them, according to a news report by GMA News. One hundred and forty-two other nations chose Kyrgyzstan over the Philippines during the fourth round of voting.

It should be recalled that no less than Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., himself told the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) last March that the Philippines is a voice for principled peace and expressed confidence that the nation has an advantage in its bid for a UNSC non-permanent seat.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA News report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines failed in its bid to attain a seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a non-permanent member.

Zimbabwe, Austria, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, and Kyrgyzstan were named new members of the UNSC, which can issue legally binding resolutions that may include military action, economic sanctions, and deployment of peacekeeping operations.

A fourth round of votes was cast for UNSC members to choose between the Philippines and Kyrgyzstan, in the Asia-Pacific Group, after they failed to reach the required two-thirds of the majority.

Kyrgyzstan eventually achieving the necessary two-thirds majority and securing its first-ever Security Council seat by 142 votes to 49.

The remaining 10 members are elected, with five new members joining every year. This year, one comes from the Africa Group, one from the Latin American and Caribbean Group, one from the Asia-Pacific Group, and two from the Western European and Others Group.

Zimbabwe will replace Somalia and Trinidad and Tobago will replace Panama, while Portugal and Austria will replace Denmark and Greece. Kyrgyzstan will replace Pakistan.

Bahrain, Colombia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Latvia and Liberia will continue to serve as non-permanent members of the Security Council until the end of 2027.

The Permanent Members are: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The rest of the non-permanent members are: Bahrain, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Latvia, and Liberia.

Last March, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made a personal pitch for the Philippines’ candidacy for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations (UN) Security Council, saying the country is ready to contribute as a voice of balance among the world’s nations and as a “voice for principled peace.”

Marcos Jr. expressed confidence that the Philippines has an advantage in its bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

As a concerned citizen, I do not like what the Philippines did at the wicked United Nations and on other international affairs. Apart from supporting the creation of a Palestinian state, their diplomats formalized a mechanism to boost bilateral cooperation with the Palestinians (which practices apartheid). When the ASEAN Summit was hosted in Cebu province, the Philippines acted as if it was a highly credible player on global diplomacy (click here and here). The Philippines deplored Israel’s strike on Qatar which made them look like they were defending the Hamas terrorists in Doha.

The loss at the UN is the latest setback for the Philippines and 2026 has been a pretty bad year so far. Apart from diplomacy, the Philippines is experiencing weakening economic growth, rapid inflation and it remains very vulnerable on energy as it imports most of its oil from the Middle East. The warning signs about the national economy are only growing.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you consider the Philippines a highly credible participant in international affairs? Do you think the Philippines deserves a seat at the United Nations Security Council under the current administration?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economic Warning Signs In The Philippines Grow

May 26, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

With weak economic growth and high inflation already happening, the future is looking dark for the economy of the Philippines and there are warning signs growing, according to a news report by Malaya Business Insight.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Malaya Business Insight report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines is not yet in stagflation, economists said, but slowing growth, high inflation, weak public spending, and the Middle East oil shock are pushing parts of the economy closer to danger.

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said some weaker sectors may already be feeling near-stagflation conditions.

“Near stagflation conditions for some vulnerable, already weak industries. But stronger ones are more insulated,” Ricafort said.

His comment followed President Marcos Jr.’s statement that potential stagflation is among the concerns keeping the government “awake at night” as officials try to contain prices of basic goods and keep the economy running.

Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the country is still not in stagflation, although the risks are rising.

“There are potential stagflation risks, but we’re not yet there,” Ravelas said at the weekly Pandesal Forum in Quezon City on Wednesday.

He said unemployment remains below its long-term average, while the economy continues to post positive growth despite the slowdown.

“If we talk about the average unemployment rate in the Philippines since the 1960s, it’s 7.5 percent. Right now, our numbers are between 5 percent and 5.3 percent,” Ravelas said.

Inflation, however, remains a major threat. Ravelas said consumer prices could climb to 8 percent to 9 percent toward the end of the year, with households likely to feel the sharpest impact from higher fuel, food, and transport costs.

He said the stagflation concern recalls the oil shocks of the 1970s, when energy disruptions pushed prices sharply higher while economic activity weakened.

Ravelas said the more immediate challenge is reviving spending, particularly government spending, to keep growth from losing further momentum.

He said the economy is still feeling the effects of last year’s flood-control scandal, which disrupted public works and slowed disbursements, while the inflationary impact of the US-Iran conflict has added pressure.

Restraining spending now, he said, would be like “shooting ourselves on our foot” because it would further weaken recovery.

“We need to be able to work on improving consumption,” Ravelas said.

He also said the government must convince the public that it is acting decisively to stabilize prices.

“When it comes to fighting inflation, we need to show our countrymen, from a government perspective, that prices are stable. That would be a good opportunity so that they will believe the government is doing something,” he said.

Ravelas noted the country should also invest in upskilling workers to improve employment prospects.

Given the inflation pressure, he said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is likely to take a defensive policy stance and raise interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points, although it must balance inflation control with the need to support growth.

A separate report from the De La Salle University Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics said inflation is being driven mainly by fuel, as higher energy costs feed into transport, logistics, and production.

“Fuel costs have more than doubled since the war began, pushing inflation sharply higher from May through August 2026. We expect inflation to peak at around 8 percent in August,” economists Jesus Felipe, Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, political scientist Susan Kurdli, and research assistant Seth Paolo Paden said in the school’s May economic report.

They said the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has also cut off roughly a third of global fertilizer supply, keeping inflation elevated through the end of 2026.

By early 2027, the report said, energy and fertilizer pressures are expected to ease, with inflation likely to return to the BSP’s 2 percent to 4 percent target band by April 2027 and settle at around 2.8 percent in 2028.

The DLSU economists said the current inflation surge is a supply shock caused by war-related disruptions in global energy and food markets, making interest rate increases an imperfect response.

“Higher interest rates will neither bring oil prices down nor reopen the Strait of Hormuz. What they will do is make borrowing more expensive, slow investment, and constrict household spending,” they said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will eventually fall into a state of stagflation this year? How are you dealing with the higher costs of living nowadays?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economy Of Japan Grows 2.1% In 1st Quarter Of 2026

May 24, 2026May 19, 2026carlocarrasco

Thanks to the recovery in exports and private consumption, the economy of Japan grew by 2.1% in the first quarter this year, according to a Kyodo News report. Still, there will be challenges ahead for the Japanese economy as the nation is still dependent on the Middle East for its crude oil needs and there is the possibility that the Islamic terrorist regime of Iran could start a new series of conflicts in the said region.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of Kyodo News Some parts in boldface…

Japan’s economy grew an annualized real 2.1 percent in the January-March period, marking the second straight quarterly expansion, led by a recovery in exports and private consumption, government data showed Tuesday, with the full impact of the Middle East conflict yet to be felt.

In the first quarter of 2026, gross domestic product adjusted for inflation increased 0.5 percent from the October-December period, the Cabinet Office said in its preliminary report, beating market expectations. GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country.

Economists polled by the Japan Center for Economic Research had forecast an annualized real expansion of 1.56 percent while expecting growth to slow to 0.45 percent in the April-June quarter, amid concern that the Middle East crisis and surging crude oil prices will weigh on corporate profits and consumer spending.

In the January-March period, private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, grew 0.3 percent, rising for the fifth straight quarter, helped by strong demand for clothing and a boost in spending at restaurants, an official said.

Spending was also underpinned by state subsidies for gas and electricity bills and solid wage growth, as rising earnings saw companies move to attract and retain talent, economists said.

But with data showing a rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment due to the Middle East conflict, its impact on private consumption warrants close attention, another government official said.

In the January-March period, exports rose 1.7 percent from the October-December quarter on a recovery in auto shipments bound for the U.S. market and strong demand for machinery and electrical devices for industrial purposes. Imports edged up 0.5 percent.

Economists said shipments to the world’s largest economy have been recovering due to receding uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy following a bilateral deal struck last year.

Business investment rose 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, with increased expenditure for research and development on the back of robust corporate profits and for general-purpose machinery and electric lighting fixtures, the first official said.

She said the impact on the data of the Middle East conflict, triggered by U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that began in late February, was unclear.

Prolonged tensions in the Middle East could affect imports of crude oil and petroleum products such as naphtha and hit exports bound for the region, economists said.

GDP was dampened 0.1 percentage point by a reduction in private inventories, apparently due to the government’s decision to release oil from stockpiles, starting with those held by the private sector.

Japan’s heavy reliance on oil imports from the Middle East makes the country vulnerable to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping artery, with surging oil prices feared to drive up inflation.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Monday the government will consider compiling a supplementary budget for fiscal 2026 to ease the impact of elevated crude oil prices.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the economy of Japan can still maintain its growth rate in the 2^nd quarter? Do you think Japan will soon import oil from other parts of the world to reduce its dependence on the Middle East? Do you think Japan’s ties with Trump-led America will open new windows that will help Japanese exporters a lot?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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University Economists Say Philippine Economic Growth Could Slow Down To 3.1% This Year

May 23, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

Could the economy of the Philippines be weakening a lot right now? As far as the economists of De La Salle University (DLSU) are concerned, economic growth will be 3.1% this year and they pointed to the effects of the Middle East conflict, rising inflation and other factors, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

De La Salle University (DLSU) economists slashed their 2026 Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.11 percent from 3.79 percent previously, warning that the economy is facing mounting pressure from the Middle East conflict, elevated inflation, and lingering domestic vulnerabilities.

If realized, the revised forecast would mark the country’s weakest annual economic growth post-pandemic, worse than the 4.4 percent recorded in 2025 in the aftermath of the flood-control corruption scandal and below the government’s downscaled five- to six-percent target.

In their report on the Philippine economy for May 2026, published on Monday, May 18, DLSU economists Jesus Felipe, Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, and Seth Paolo Paden, together with political science professor Susan Kurdli, said the downgrade reflected “three converging pressures on the economy.”

These include the Middle East conflict disrupting oil supply and pushing energy prices higher, the risk of tighter monetary policy should inflation persist, and the emerging pass-through of higher fertilizer costs to food prices.

“The combination of all three explains why the growth outlook has deteriorated more sharply than previously expected,” the report read.

The economists noted that the economy had already slowed sharply to 2.81 percent in the first quarter, which they described as “the last reading to reflect pre-shock normalcy” before the full impact of the Middle East conflict filtered through fuel prices, inflation, and fertilizer supply disruptions.

DLSU expects growth to slow further to 2.8 percent in the second quarter and 2.3 percent in the third quarter before recovering to 4.53 percent in the fourth quarter on the back of government catch-up spending, overseas Filipino workers’ (OFWs) remittances, and an eventual recovery in investments should geopolitical pressures ease.

The report warned that the war had exposed the Philippines’ structural vulnerabilities, particularly its heavy dependence on imported petroleum, fertilizer-sensitive food production, and a fragile investment environment already weighed down by domestic political issues even before the external shock emerged.

Medium-term growth is projected to recover to 3.93 percent in 2027 and 5.71 percent in 2028, driven by easing energy prices, the expected shift toward monetary accommodation, election-related spending, and the ramp-up of the Pax Silica semiconductor industrial hub. Still, both projections remain below the government’s downgraded growth targets.

For 2026, DLSU expects private consumption growth at 4.93 percent, government expenditure at 4.89 percent, exports at 4.51 percent, and imports at 5.62 percent. Gross fixed capital formation, however, is forecast to contract by 1.99 percent, reflecting weak investor confidence, slowing bank lending, and elevated geopolitical risks.

On the supply side, agriculture, forestry, and fishing are projected to grow just 0.2 percent this year, while industry is expected to expand 1.24 percent and services 4.38 percent.

The economists also warned that inflation would remain “elevated through the end of 2026” as higher fuel costs spill over into transport, logistics, and food prices. The report expects inflation to peak at around eight percent by August before easing back within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) two- to four-percent target band by April 2027.

DLSU also expects the peso to weaken further this year, projecting the currency to hit around ₱63.5 against the United States (US) dollar by August due to rising oil import costs and negative real interest rates before recovering in succeeding years.

The economists argued that peso depreciation may provide limited support to the economy because most Philippine exports and imports are priced in US dollars under the dominant currency pricing system.

“The short-run effect of depreciation tends to be: stronger on import prices; weaker on export volumes; more inflationary; [and] less expansionary for net exports than the textbook case,” the report said.

The report explained that because Philippine exports—particularly electronics and global value chain-related products—contain substantial imported inputs, peso depreciation could raise production costs while delivering only limited gains to export volumes.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has no room left to find ways to boost economic growth this year? What do you think the national government should do to stimulate the economy?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Counting On Stronger Cooperation With Japan On Investment And Energy Security

May 23, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

As it is already struggling with weak economic growth and high inflation, the Philippines is looking forward to Japan for stronger cooperation on investment and energy security, according to a news report by Malaya Business Insight.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Malaya Business Insight report. Some parts in boldface…

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the Philippines is counting on stronger cooperation with Japan on investment, energy security, and defense as his administration seeks to keep the economy moving despite high inflation, slower growth, and pressure from the Middle East crisis.

Speaking to Japanese media in Malacañang ahead of his May 26 to 29 state visit to Japan, Marcos said the government remains confident the economy can recover from the recent slowdown, citing continued investor interest and policy measures meant to cushion consumers and businesses.

The economy grew 2.8 percent in the first quarter, slower than 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, while inflation surged to 7.2 percent in April from 4.1 percent in March.

Marcos said the government was trying to keep the “economic machine running” despite “elements of fear” arising from global uncertainty.

“Luckily, I suppose, or at least as I said, we are still continuing to see marked interest in investment in the Philippines,” Marcos said.

“And perhaps this is why. This is because of the policies that we adopted, the incentives that we put out for investors. And so slowly we can see the way through this. Where we will recover through this,” he added.

Marcos said the risk of stagflation, or weak economic growth combined with rising inflation, remains a major concern.

He said the government has rolled out fuel subsidies, cash aid for the transport sector, a price cap on imported rice, and the P20-per-kilo rice program to help contain inflation and ease the burden on consumers.

“We want to keep the system, the economic system, continuing to function. We have done all these measures to keep inflation down,” Marcos said.

The President said his talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi are expected to focus on energy security and defense cooperation, including tensions in the South China Sea and East China Sea.

Marcos said both countries have faced coercive actions and “gray zone” tactics, making adherence to international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea central to the discussions.

He said he would also push for the full implementation of the Reciprocal Access Agreement signed in July 2024 and the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement signed in January.

Marcos said Japan’s participation in this year’s Balikatan exercises marked a significant step in strengthening interoperability among allied forces.

He also said the Philippines expects to benefit from Japan’s easing of restrictions on defense exports, including support for radar systems, aircraft, vessels, information technology sharing, and personnel training.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines cannot grow stronger without the involvement of Japan and its investors? Do you think the Philippines will proceed to acquire anti-ship missile systems from Japan to enhance national defense?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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