business news – Author Carlo Carrasco

Japan And The Philippines Committed To Develop Luzon Economic Corridor

June 3, 2026May 29, 2026carlocarrasco

Following the big meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and Philippines president Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos in Tokyo, the two nations confirmed they will work together on developing the Luzon Economic Corridor (LEC) into an economic hub described as “world-class”, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines and Japan have reaffirmed their commitment to transform the Luzon Economic Corridor (LEC) into a “world-class economic hub,” recognizing its strategic role in strengthening regional economic architecture and global supply chain resilience.

In a joint statement following a summit meeting in Tokyo, Japan on Thursday, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pledged to deepen cooperation on high-impact infrastructure and economic initiatives under the LEC framework.

Priority areas include rail and port modernization, clean energy, semiconductor supply chains, digital connectivity, agribusiness, and civilian port upgrades.

“They also reaffirmed their strong commitment to transforming the LEC into a world-class economic hub that strengthens global supply chains, accelerates economic development, and delivers mutual economic prosperity,” the joint statement read.

The LEC is a trilateral initiative involving the Philippines, Japan, and the United States (US) aimed at enhancing connectivity and economic growth across Luzon, particularly along the Subic-Clark-Manila-Batangas corridor.

The Philippines and Japan acknowledged the importance of trilateral cooperation with the US and coordination with like-minded partners such as Australia and India in upholding a “free and open” international order based on the rule of law.

The two leaders emphasized that strengthening infrastructure connectivity and resilience through Japan’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) is vital not only to the Philippines’ economic growth but also to regional stability.

Japan reaffirmed its support for “high-quality, resilient, and sustainable infrastructure development” to help advance the Philippines’ economic and social transformation.

The two countries also agreed to deepen cooperation in economic security, including efforts to strengthen resilient and diversified supply chains in critical minerals, renewable energy, automotive manufacturing, and advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI).

They likewise committed to enhancing collaboration on digital infrastructure, including undersea cables and 5G Open RAN technologies, while promoting secure and trustworthy AI ecosystems through the Japan-ASEAN Co-creation Initiative for AI.

On trade and investment, both sides stressed the importance of full implementation of existing agreements such as the Philippines-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, the ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think Japan’s involvement in the Luzon Economic Corridor will be beneficial to the Philippines economically? What do you think Japan can gain from developing the Luzon Economic Corridor?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

SBMA Adjusts Bidding Timeline For Subic Bay International Airport

June 2, 2026May 29, 2026carlocarrasco

With the window remaining open for bidders to challenge Cerberus’ unsolicited offer for the Subic Bay International Airport (SBIA), the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA) officially adjusted the bidding timeline, according to a news report by the Manila Standard. Previously, the SBMA announced a Swiss challenge for the airport development project.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the SBMA’s official announcement. Some parts in boldface…

The Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA) is inviting rival bidders to challenge the unsolicited offer of Cerberus Asia Pacific Investments LLC for the P6.2-billion Subic Bay International Airport (SBIA) development project.

In a recent bid bulletin, the SBMA announced that the issuance and availability of tender documents has been rescheduled to June 17, 2026, moving back from its initial May 18, 2026 timeline.

“The extension ensures technical specifications, financial parameters, and contractual frameworks are comprehensive, accurate, and clear,” the SBMA said.

“This adjustment protects the integrity of the Comparative Challenge process and ensures an equal footing for all participants. No prejudice is caused to any party as documents have not yet been released,” it added.

The asset-management firm Cerberus originally submitted its unsolicited proposal on March 26, 2025, under an Operate-Rehabilitate-Add-Transfer scheme.

The project spans a 25-year concession period—with a possibility for extension—and involves upgrading, expanding, operating, and maintaining the SBIA before its eventual turnover to the SBMA.

The primary goal is to transform the airport into a modern, high-capacity cargo hub that meets international standards and streamlines logistics across the Luzon region.

The comparative challenge will operate under a “right-to-match” mechanism in accordance with the PPP Code Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR).

The original proponent will be given 30 calendar days to match or top the most superior proposal submitted by a challenger. If no challengers emerge, or if the original proponent submits a superior counter-offer, the contract will be awarded to Cerberus.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think several corporate entities overseas will eventually challenge Cerberus’ bid for the Subic Bay International Airport?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Economy Of The Philippines Expected To Rebound In 2nd Half Of 2026

June 1, 2026May 28, 2026carlocarrasco

While the economists of a particular university predict slower economic growth for the Philippines this year, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) see the national economy growing stronger in the 2^nd half of this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY could grow by around 5% in the second half of the year, driven by base effects and an expected acceleration in government infrastructure spending, according to the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P).

“Growth could recover to around 5% in the second half on base effects and a ramp-up in National Government infrastructure spending,” UA&P said in its The Market Call report this month.

Government officials earlier signaled a pickup in disbursements and project implementation as agencies roll out catch-up programs.

UA&P cautioned, however, that growth will remain subdued in the first half amid unresolved issues surrounding last year’s flood control scandal and elevated oil prices.

“Weak gross domestic product growth and faster inflation will weigh on the economy in the first half amid the unresolved flood control scandal and high oil prices from the Middle East conflict,” it said.

“Flip-flopping US-Iran talks may keep fuel prices elevated, hitting the Philippines harder than its ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) peers,” it added.

The Philippine economy expanded by a slower-than-expected 2.8% in the first quarter. This was below the government’s target range of 5-6% for the year.

For the entire year of 2026, UA&P said growth will be slow “but pose some resilience in the face of near-term global and local headwinds that will likely moderate activity in the first half of the year.”

“While cautious business sentiment and lingering geopolitical uncertainties may weigh on household and investment spending, the domestic economy continues to benefit from strong structural drivers such as steady household consumption, a healthy labor market, and sustained remittance inflows,” it added.

Meanwhile, UA&P said that it expects inflation to accelerate further amid second-round effects from the oil shock, “but likely not to (reach) double digits year on year.”

Inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April, marking the second consecutive month that it settled above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2%-4% target. It also breached the BSP’s 5.6%-6.4% forecast for the month.

“The BSP took on a more hawkish tone because of above-estimate inflation, raising rates and its inflation forecast to 6.3% for 2026,” it said.

“We likewise see above-target inflation for the rest of 2026, with the possibility of double-digit inflation rates due to base and second-round effects creeping into succeeding readings,” it added.

As inflation is expected to settle above the target for the rest of the year, UA&P expects the BSP to further tighten.

“Our outlook pencils in 75 basis points (bps) more of rate hikes for this year, bringing the policy rate to 5.25%, especially as the April inflation reading trumped even the BSP’s upper inflation bound,” it said.

The central bank last month raised rates for the first time in nearly two years by 25 bps to 4.5%, with BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. saying the Monetary Board remains open to extending the tightening cycle to anchor inflation expectations.

NO STAGFLATION – Despite weaker growth and high inflation, UA&P said the country is not experiencing stagflation.

“Despite inflation negative commentary from some analysts, the Philippine economy is not in stagflation mode,” it said.

“Inflation, while elevated, will continually trek downwards after a peace deal gets signed, and growth will return when infrastructure spending resumes along with consumer and business confidence,” it added.

Meanwhile, the peso remains under pressure as crude oil prices surge.

“The peso-dollar rate remained under pressure amid the rebound in crude oil prices (i.e., close to $100/barrel for West Texas Intermediate, and $110/barrel for Brent) in April,” it said.

On Tuesday, the local currency closed P61.56 versus the greenback, weakening by 9.5 centavos from its P61.465 finish on Monday.

UA&P said it expects bonds with longer tenors to deliver higher returns amid elevated interest rates, after investors cautiously returned to the local bond market in April.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will truly rebound in the 2^nd half of this year? What do you think will help boost the national economy apart from foreign investments?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Tanker With Oil From The Middle East Finally Arrives In Japan

May 30, 2026May 26, 2026carlocarrasco

After previously getting blocked from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a Japanese oil tanker finally arrived home with two million barrels of crude oil from the Middle East and they did not pay a transit fee to the terrorist state of Iran, according to a Kyodo News report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of Kyodo News. Some parts in boldface…

A Japanese oil tanker arrived in Japan on Monday, becoming the first to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the Iran war, which has left traffic through the vital energy route heavily restricted.

The tanker, operated by a unit of major refiner Idemitsu Kosan Co., brought 2 million barrels of crude, equivalent to about 80 percent of daily domestic demand, to Aichi Prefecture in central Japan, according to sources close to the matter.

Its crew, including three Japanese, is in good health, they said.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara told a press conference the ship’s arrival in Japan is “pleasant news in terms of securing a stable energy supply.”

After the effective closure of the strait by Iran, the Japanese government asked the country to ensure free and safe passage through the strait for vessels of all countries.

There are still 39 Japan-related vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf, including one with Japanese crew members aboard, said Kihara, the top government spokesman.

“We will continue to proactively make all diplomatic efforts and ensure coordination,” so all vessels can pass through the strait as soon as possible, he added.

According to data from the Automatic Identification System on vessels, the Idemitsu Maru, a Panamanian-flagged ship measuring more than 300 meters, entered the Persian Gulf in late February before the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran.

It loaded crude oil in Saudi Arabia and left in early March after the strait was blocked. Its passage was temporarily halted off the coast of Abu Dhabi, but it passed the Strait of Hormuz on April 28. It did not pay Iran a transit fee, the sources said.

After leaving the Persian Gulf, the vessel passed through waters off India and the Strait of Malacca before arriving in Japan.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the remaining stranded Japanese oil tankers will eventually pass through the Straight of Hormuz to deliver crude oil home safely? Do you think the terrorist regime of Iran will harass international oil tankers and engage in extortion soon?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Japan Supports Oil Diversification In Southeast Asia

May 29, 2026May 26, 2026carlocarrasco

For a few months now, the economies of Southeast Asian nations have been affected by the higher costs of imported oil from the Middle East and there is no telling what evil the terrorist state of Iran could do with regards to the critical Strait of Hormuz. As such, the need for Southeast Asian nations to diversify their crude oil procurement sources is clear and Japan confirmed it will help them, according to a news article by Jiji Press with additional content from Manila Bulletin.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of Jiji Press. Some parts in boldface…

The Japanese government plans to help Southeast Asian countries diversify their crude oil procurement sources, in order to stabilize petrochemical supply chains amid the ongoing Middle East tensions.

Faced with recent energy shocks following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Southeast Asian nations, which depend heavily on imported crude oil, are working to reduce their reliance on Middle East oil.

The Philippines has depended on the Middle East for more than 90 pct of its crude oil imports. In March, the Philippines declared a national energy emergency due to soaring crude oil prices.

The Southeast Asian nation recently started importing crude oil from Russia, even while some countries have reduced or halted imports from Russia as part of sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine. The Philippines has also shown a willingness to pursue joint oil and gas exploration with China in the South China Sea, where the two countries have territorial disputes.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said in a recent interview, “I don’t think that we will go back to the old system where the majority of the petroleum products that are coming out of the Strait of Hormuz are going to Asia.”

Marcos expressed expectations that Asian countries will further advance the diversification of their crude oil supply sources in the coming years.

Other member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, such as Thailand and Vietnam, are also seeking to diversify their procurement of crude oil by increasing imports from the United States and African countries, in addition to Russia.

At an ASEAN summit in Cebu in the Philippines earlier this month, leaders reaffirmed in a joint statement their commitment to diversifying crude oil procurement sources and promoting energy trade in the region. They also exchanged views on the idea of establishing joint oil and gas reserves.

Meanwhile, the Japanese government is wary of the potential impact on domestic supply chains if supply chains in Southeast Asia, a petrochemical manufacturing hub, are disrupted.

“Supporting supply chains in Asian countries will directly contribute to strengthening the Japanese economy,” Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said, indicating her intention to support ASEAN.

In April, the Japanese government announced a framework to provide financial support of 10 billion dollars, or around 1.6 trillion yen, to help stabilize energy supplies in Asian countries.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think Japan’s support for oil diversification in Southeast Asia is crucial for both itself and the region? Do you think Japan’s $10 billion plan will succeed in stabilizing the energy supplies of Asian nations? Do you think the Philippines will fall into an economic recession this year if the oil prices remained high? Do you think it is a wise idea for the Philippines to pursue a joint oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea with Communist China?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Japanese Business Leaders Pledge $3.4 Billion Worth Of Investments For The Philippines

May 29, 2026May 28, 2026carlocarrasco

The Philippines, which is already struggling with weak economic growth, high fuel prices and rapid inflation, got a boost thanks to Japanese business leaders who pledged investments worth $3.4 billion for the country, according to a news report by GMA News.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of GMA News. Some parts in boldface…

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Wednesday secured stronger commitments for deeper economic integration during a high-level roundtable meeting with top Japanese business executives at the Imperial Hotel in Tokyo.

In his meeting with leaders of Japan’s largest conglomerates and financial institutions, Marcos bagged an aggregate investment commitment of $3.4 billion (approximately P210 billion) from participating Japanese corporations.

In a statement, the Presidential Communications Office (PCO) said these combined capital inflows are “projected to catalyze substantive macroeconomic benefits, expanding domestic industrial capacity and directly generating thousands of high-quality, specialized jobs for Filipinos.”

The PCO added that the infusion “underscores the resilience of the Philippine market, promising long-term economic dividends by fortifying local supply chains, upgrading tourism infrastructure, and accelerating technology transfers across critical growth sectors.”

The President is in Tokyo for a four-day state visit upon the invitation of the Japanese government.

In his remarks, Marcos said a robust Philippine-Japan economic corridor is critical and that laying the groundwork for an enhanced, unified partnership is essential to navigate global difficulties, build resilience, and sustain momentum.

“As we mark 70 years of the normalization of our diplomatic relations, we are no longer simply commemorating history. We are entering a new chapter – a chapter defined not only by friendship, but by deeper integration, shared growth, and a common belief in the future,” the President told the leaders of Japan’s largest conglomerates and financial institutions.

He outlined a unified government approach spearheaded by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and the Department of Tourism (DOT).

“The Philippines is pursuing a clear national direction: building an economy where infrastructure, industry, finance, human capital, and connectivity move together as one system of growth,” Marcos said.

“Increasingly, we recognize that trade and tourism will be among the most important engines of that growth.”

He underscored the importance of stronger trade and tourism linkages, saying these are not supporting sectors but “core drivers of economic expansion in the Philippines moving forward.”

“This is a philosophy our two countries understand deeply,” the President said.

He also acknowledged the foundational contributions of several Japanese firms operating in the Philippines, such as All Nippon Airways, Toyota, Mitsubishi Corporation, Marubeni, Panasonic, and Fast Retailing.

He thanked these Japanese investors for their continued confidence in the Philippine economy and for helping create high-quality opportunities for Filipino workers and industries.

“You are no longer just investors in our economy. You are builders of it,” Marcos told the Japanese business leaders.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the $3.4 billion investment pledge by Japanese corporations will be a huge boost for the Philippines’ economy? Do you consider the ties of Japan and the Philippines healthy today?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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America’s Pax Silica Prompts P7 Billion Power Expansion In New Clark City

May 28, 2026May 25, 2026carlocarrasco

Pax Silica – the United States’ Pax Silica flagship effort on artificial intelligence (AI) and supply chain security that includes the Philippines – prompted the P7 billion investment of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) to ensure a stable power supply for New Clark City in Tarlac province, according to a news report by the Manila Bulletin.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) plans to invest nearly ₱7 billion in a dedicated substation to guarantee a stable power supply for New Clark City in Capas, Tarlac, anticipating a surge in demand from a planned artificial intelligence (AI) industrial hub.

Joshua Bingcang, president and chief executive officer of the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), said the investment promotion agency is currently in talks with NGCP to finalize the project’s details. The grid operator is drafting the alignment plan for the substation, which Bingcang noted should be finalized “soon.”

“Our target with them is by [the] end of 2028, the dedicated power connection should be already installed in New Clark City,” he told reporters last week.

Bingcang added that the BCDA initially offered to fund the project to jump-start construction, with NGCP reimbursing the agency later. However, NGCP declined the offer because the substation is already integrated into its capital expenditures.

Under its Transmission Development Plan 2024 to 2050, NGCP outlined plans to construct the Capas 230-kilovolt (kV) substation to meet the growing power needs of the emerging metropolis. According to the plan, NGCP will allocate ₱6.95 billion to develop the facility.

To facilitate the project, Bingcang said the BCDA is offering land along the Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway (SCTEX) to ensure an unimpeded route for the transmission line into New Clark City. Once operational, the substation is expected to give locators in the AI hub the confidence to manufacture high-value inputs without risking operational pauses due to power shortages.

The AI hub will span more than 1,600 hectares within New Clark City as part of the United States-led Pax Silica partnership, which aims to encourage investment among member countries to bolster the global AI supply chain.

To meet the site’s massive energy requirements, Bingcang said the BCDA expects a foreign investor to build a solar energy project capable of generating up to 500 megawatts. Furthermore, the agency is drafting plans for an embedded power plant to secure baseload power and enhance the hub’s overall energy reliability.

In a separate interview with Business 360, Bingcang disclosed that the BCDA is also negotiating with US investors to construct a dedicated pipeline to transport jet fuel from Subic Bay to Clark International Airport, supporting the logistics needs of companies within the AI hub. The agency is also exploring a separate pipeline along SCTEX to deliver fuel or liquefied natural gas.

Additionally, the BCDA is advancing a public-private partnership (PPP) project for New Clark City’s information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure. According to a bid bulletin published by the PPP Center, the agency aims to conclude the procurement process for a joint venture partner to lay fiber-optic cables across the city by August.

Bingcang noted that all of these infrastructure projects were requested by the US during preliminary talks for the AI hub. Following a visit to the 1,600-hectare site last week, the US will send engineering personnel next month to conduct a site assessment and design a concept plan for the industrial zone.

“Parallel to these technical studies, we will also finalize the commercial arrangement and contractual framework for the project. Within the year, we will be announcing a definitive contract arrangement [with the US],” Bingcang said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Pax Silica will prompt further infrastructure and energy developments related with New Clark City as the initiative develops further? Do you think there is room for nuclear power to considered in the years to come?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economic Warning Signs In The Philippines Grow

May 26, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

With weak economic growth and high inflation already happening, the future is looking dark for the economy of the Philippines and there are warning signs growing, according to a news report by Malaya Business Insight.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Malaya Business Insight report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines is not yet in stagflation, economists said, but slowing growth, high inflation, weak public spending, and the Middle East oil shock are pushing parts of the economy closer to danger.

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said some weaker sectors may already be feeling near-stagflation conditions.

“Near stagflation conditions for some vulnerable, already weak industries. But stronger ones are more insulated,” Ricafort said.

His comment followed President Marcos Jr.’s statement that potential stagflation is among the concerns keeping the government “awake at night” as officials try to contain prices of basic goods and keep the economy running.

Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the country is still not in stagflation, although the risks are rising.

“There are potential stagflation risks, but we’re not yet there,” Ravelas said at the weekly Pandesal Forum in Quezon City on Wednesday.

He said unemployment remains below its long-term average, while the economy continues to post positive growth despite the slowdown.

“If we talk about the average unemployment rate in the Philippines since the 1960s, it’s 7.5 percent. Right now, our numbers are between 5 percent and 5.3 percent,” Ravelas said.

Inflation, however, remains a major threat. Ravelas said consumer prices could climb to 8 percent to 9 percent toward the end of the year, with households likely to feel the sharpest impact from higher fuel, food, and transport costs.

He said the stagflation concern recalls the oil shocks of the 1970s, when energy disruptions pushed prices sharply higher while economic activity weakened.

Ravelas said the more immediate challenge is reviving spending, particularly government spending, to keep growth from losing further momentum.

He said the economy is still feeling the effects of last year’s flood-control scandal, which disrupted public works and slowed disbursements, while the inflationary impact of the US-Iran conflict has added pressure.

Restraining spending now, he said, would be like “shooting ourselves on our foot” because it would further weaken recovery.

“We need to be able to work on improving consumption,” Ravelas said.

He also said the government must convince the public that it is acting decisively to stabilize prices.

“When it comes to fighting inflation, we need to show our countrymen, from a government perspective, that prices are stable. That would be a good opportunity so that they will believe the government is doing something,” he said.

Ravelas noted the country should also invest in upskilling workers to improve employment prospects.

Given the inflation pressure, he said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is likely to take a defensive policy stance and raise interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points, although it must balance inflation control with the need to support growth.

A separate report from the De La Salle University Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics said inflation is being driven mainly by fuel, as higher energy costs feed into transport, logistics, and production.

“Fuel costs have more than doubled since the war began, pushing inflation sharply higher from May through August 2026. We expect inflation to peak at around 8 percent in August,” economists Jesus Felipe, Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, political scientist Susan Kurdli, and research assistant Seth Paolo Paden said in the school’s May economic report.

They said the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has also cut off roughly a third of global fertilizer supply, keeping inflation elevated through the end of 2026.

By early 2027, the report said, energy and fertilizer pressures are expected to ease, with inflation likely to return to the BSP’s 2 percent to 4 percent target band by April 2027 and settle at around 2.8 percent in 2028.

The DLSU economists said the current inflation surge is a supply shock caused by war-related disruptions in global energy and food markets, making interest rate increases an imperfect response.

“Higher interest rates will neither bring oil prices down nor reopen the Strait of Hormuz. What they will do is make borrowing more expensive, slow investment, and constrict household spending,” they said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will eventually fall into a state of stagflation this year? How are you dealing with the higher costs of living nowadays?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economy Of Japan Grows 2.1% In 1st Quarter Of 2026

May 24, 2026May 19, 2026carlocarrasco

Thanks to the recovery in exports and private consumption, the economy of Japan grew by 2.1% in the first quarter this year, according to a Kyodo News report. Still, there will be challenges ahead for the Japanese economy as the nation is still dependent on the Middle East for its crude oil needs and there is the possibility that the Islamic terrorist regime of Iran could start a new series of conflicts in the said region.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of Kyodo News Some parts in boldface…

Japan’s economy grew an annualized real 2.1 percent in the January-March period, marking the second straight quarterly expansion, led by a recovery in exports and private consumption, government data showed Tuesday, with the full impact of the Middle East conflict yet to be felt.

In the first quarter of 2026, gross domestic product adjusted for inflation increased 0.5 percent from the October-December period, the Cabinet Office said in its preliminary report, beating market expectations. GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country.

Economists polled by the Japan Center for Economic Research had forecast an annualized real expansion of 1.56 percent while expecting growth to slow to 0.45 percent in the April-June quarter, amid concern that the Middle East crisis and surging crude oil prices will weigh on corporate profits and consumer spending.

In the January-March period, private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, grew 0.3 percent, rising for the fifth straight quarter, helped by strong demand for clothing and a boost in spending at restaurants, an official said.

Spending was also underpinned by state subsidies for gas and electricity bills and solid wage growth, as rising earnings saw companies move to attract and retain talent, economists said.

But with data showing a rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment due to the Middle East conflict, its impact on private consumption warrants close attention, another government official said.

In the January-March period, exports rose 1.7 percent from the October-December quarter on a recovery in auto shipments bound for the U.S. market and strong demand for machinery and electrical devices for industrial purposes. Imports edged up 0.5 percent.

Economists said shipments to the world’s largest economy have been recovering due to receding uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy following a bilateral deal struck last year.

Business investment rose 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, with increased expenditure for research and development on the back of robust corporate profits and for general-purpose machinery and electric lighting fixtures, the first official said.

She said the impact on the data of the Middle East conflict, triggered by U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that began in late February, was unclear.

Prolonged tensions in the Middle East could affect imports of crude oil and petroleum products such as naphtha and hit exports bound for the region, economists said.

GDP was dampened 0.1 percentage point by a reduction in private inventories, apparently due to the government’s decision to release oil from stockpiles, starting with those held by the private sector.

Japan’s heavy reliance on oil imports from the Middle East makes the country vulnerable to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping artery, with surging oil prices feared to drive up inflation.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Monday the government will consider compiling a supplementary budget for fiscal 2026 to ease the impact of elevated crude oil prices.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the economy of Japan can still maintain its growth rate in the 2^nd quarter? Do you think Japan will soon import oil from other parts of the world to reduce its dependence on the Middle East? Do you think Japan’s ties with Trump-led America will open new windows that will help Japanese exporters a lot?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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University Economists Say Philippine Economic Growth Could Slow Down To 3.1% This Year

May 23, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

Could the economy of the Philippines be weakening a lot right now? As far as the economists of De La Salle University (DLSU) are concerned, economic growth will be 3.1% this year and they pointed to the effects of the Middle East conflict, rising inflation and other factors, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

De La Salle University (DLSU) economists slashed their 2026 Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.11 percent from 3.79 percent previously, warning that the economy is facing mounting pressure from the Middle East conflict, elevated inflation, and lingering domestic vulnerabilities.

If realized, the revised forecast would mark the country’s weakest annual economic growth post-pandemic, worse than the 4.4 percent recorded in 2025 in the aftermath of the flood-control corruption scandal and below the government’s downscaled five- to six-percent target.

In their report on the Philippine economy for May 2026, published on Monday, May 18, DLSU economists Jesus Felipe, Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, and Seth Paolo Paden, together with political science professor Susan Kurdli, said the downgrade reflected “three converging pressures on the economy.”

These include the Middle East conflict disrupting oil supply and pushing energy prices higher, the risk of tighter monetary policy should inflation persist, and the emerging pass-through of higher fertilizer costs to food prices.

“The combination of all three explains why the growth outlook has deteriorated more sharply than previously expected,” the report read.

The economists noted that the economy had already slowed sharply to 2.81 percent in the first quarter, which they described as “the last reading to reflect pre-shock normalcy” before the full impact of the Middle East conflict filtered through fuel prices, inflation, and fertilizer supply disruptions.

DLSU expects growth to slow further to 2.8 percent in the second quarter and 2.3 percent in the third quarter before recovering to 4.53 percent in the fourth quarter on the back of government catch-up spending, overseas Filipino workers’ (OFWs) remittances, and an eventual recovery in investments should geopolitical pressures ease.

The report warned that the war had exposed the Philippines’ structural vulnerabilities, particularly its heavy dependence on imported petroleum, fertilizer-sensitive food production, and a fragile investment environment already weighed down by domestic political issues even before the external shock emerged.

Medium-term growth is projected to recover to 3.93 percent in 2027 and 5.71 percent in 2028, driven by easing energy prices, the expected shift toward monetary accommodation, election-related spending, and the ramp-up of the Pax Silica semiconductor industrial hub. Still, both projections remain below the government’s downgraded growth targets.

For 2026, DLSU expects private consumption growth at 4.93 percent, government expenditure at 4.89 percent, exports at 4.51 percent, and imports at 5.62 percent. Gross fixed capital formation, however, is forecast to contract by 1.99 percent, reflecting weak investor confidence, slowing bank lending, and elevated geopolitical risks.

On the supply side, agriculture, forestry, and fishing are projected to grow just 0.2 percent this year, while industry is expected to expand 1.24 percent and services 4.38 percent.

The economists also warned that inflation would remain “elevated through the end of 2026” as higher fuel costs spill over into transport, logistics, and food prices. The report expects inflation to peak at around eight percent by August before easing back within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) two- to four-percent target band by April 2027.

DLSU also expects the peso to weaken further this year, projecting the currency to hit around ₱63.5 against the United States (US) dollar by August due to rising oil import costs and negative real interest rates before recovering in succeeding years.

The economists argued that peso depreciation may provide limited support to the economy because most Philippine exports and imports are priced in US dollars under the dominant currency pricing system.

“The short-run effect of depreciation tends to be: stronger on import prices; weaker on export volumes; more inflationary; [and] less expansionary for net exports than the textbook case,” the report said.

The report explained that because Philippine exports—particularly electronics and global value chain-related products—contain substantial imported inputs, peso depreciation could raise production costs while delivering only limited gains to export volumes.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has no room left to find ways to boost economic growth this year? What do you think the national government should do to stimulate the economy?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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