Tag: Moody’s Ratings

Philippines GDP Growth Unlikely To Reach 6% In Medium Term

Philippines GDP Growth Unlikely To Reach 6% In Medium Term

carlocarrasco

Several economic factors and the continued vulnerability to climate-driven shocks make it unlikely for the Philippines to achieve gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6% in the medium term, according to a news report by BusinessWorld citing Moody’s Ratings.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

MOODY’S RATINGS said the Philippines’ medium-term growth outlook seems bleak as its slow  investment recovery and vulnerability to climate-driven shocks may derail its economic rebound.

In a statement following its latest rating action on the Philippines, the debt watcher said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to hover below its pre-pandemic level of around 6% over the medium term.

“The Philippines’ medium-term growth will continue to be underpinned by favorable demographics, resilient remittances and service exports, and a gradual strengthening of investment as confidence recovers, with electronics and other goods exports providing a more marginal offset,” Moody’s Ratings said late on Monday.

“Even so, we expect medium-term potential to settle somewhat below the near-6% pace recorded before the pandemic, as investment recovers only gradually and the economy remains exposed to recurrent natural disasters and climate-related shocks,” it added.

Moody’s slashed its Philippine GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.6% from 5.5%. This falls near the bottom end of the government’s 3.5%-4.5% target for the year.

In the second quarter, GDP growth tumbled to a new post-pandemic low of 2.3%, bringing average growth to 2.6% in the first half.

The fourth consecutive quarter of slowing growth came as investments continued to reel from last year’s flood control corruption scandal, while rising prices amid the Middle East war squeezed household spending.

Moody’s Ratings noted that the Middle East war shocks and investment slump are “largely cyclical,” with an investment-driven recovery expected later this year.

“The recovery from the second half of 2026 should be led by a rebound in public investment as the government resumes stalled disbursements and normalizes spending execution,” it said.

Moody’s Ratings said that local investments should focus on public infrastructure and public-private partnerships, especially in renewable energy “as the country diversifies its energy mix in response to the recent shock.”

The government’s recent reforms should also eventually boost investment and productivity as their benefits are realized, the debt watcher said.

These include the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy Act, foreign investment liberalization, and allowing more private and foreign participation in sectors such as renewable energy.

By 2027, Moody’s Ratings expects GDP to expand by 5.3%, although still slower than its previous estimate of 5.6%.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Are you convinced that the economy of the Philippines really does not have enough strength to achieve 6% GDP growth anytime soon? Do you think the current economic managers know what they are doing? Do you think there will absolutely be no economic gains from the Philippines’ hosting of the 2026 ASEAN Summit?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Slower Economic Growth And Higher Inflation For The Philippines

Slower Economic Growth And Higher Inflation For The Philippines

carlocarrasco

With the higher fuel prices, a limited oil storage capacity, a very vulnerable currency and other economic uncertainties happening around, the Philippines is headed towards higher inflation and slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the near future based on the latest analysis of Moody’s Ratings, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

MOODY’S RATINGS lowered its growth forecast for the Philippines and raised its inflation outlook, reflecting the impact of soaring global energy prices amid the Middle East conflict.

In a credit opinion on Tuesday, Moody’s cut its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection to 4.9% this year from 5.5% previously. This is below the government’s 5-6% target for 2026.

For 2027, Moody’s trimmed its GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.6% previously. If realized, this will be lower than the economic managers’ 5.5-6.5% target range for 2027.

“The conflict in the Middle East has increased downside risks to the Philippines’ economic outlook by raising global energy prices and external cost pressures,” it said.

Moody’s said it expects domestic demand and industrial activity to remain subdued due to high oil prices and fuel shortages.

“Higher energy and broader import costs are expected to erode real incomes amid high pass-through, dampen consumption, and weigh on industrial activity, reinforcing a firmer inflation trajectory,” it said.

Moody’s also noted that trade uncertainty and climate risks may also dampen economic activity.

“Our baseline assumes that the recovery in public investment will be gradual and begin only in the second half of 2026, as the government continues to take concrete measures to address the temporary slowdown. Meanwhile, higher energy import bills amid rising prices and peso depreciation, together with slower remittance growth, are expected to widen the current account deficit,” it said.

The Philippines is currently under a year-long national energy emergency as the Middle East crisis threatened its fuel supply. The government rolled out targeted subsidies and implemented energy conservation protocols.

“Together, these measures should mitigate the risk of significant supply disruptions,” Moody’s Ratings said.

Moody’s also hiked its average inflation forecasts to 3.7% in 2026 from 3% previously, and to 3.5% in 2027 from 3.2% previously, as oil prices remain elevated due to the Middle East conflict.

Moody’s forecasts are below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 5.1% inflation projection this year and the 3.8% projection for 2027.

Inflation quickened to a nearly two-year high of 4.1% in March, breaching the BSP’s 2-4% target amid rising fuel and transportation costs.

“Inflation is expected to remain above the BSP’s target range, reducing policy flexibility and increasing the risk of policy tightening, even as softening growth and a negative output gap support a broadly accommodative stance in the near term,” Moody’s said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think the government of the Philippines should do to stimulate economic growth and attract more foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Moody’s Predicts 5.7% Growth for Philippine Economy in 2025

Moody’s Predicts 5.7% Growth for Philippine Economy in 2025

carlocarrasco

Based on its latest economy research, Moody’s Ratings announced that the economy of the Philippines will achieve 5.7% growth for the year 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY is on track to grow by 5.7% this year on the back of strong household spending, steady remittances and sustained public investments, Moody’s Ratings said.

“We expect the Philippines to maintain strong economic growth relative to regional and rating peers,” Moody’s said after the completion of a periodic review of Philippines’ credit rating.

“Growth will be supported by resilient household consumption, stable remittance inflows from overseas workers, and public investment spending, and ongoing structural reforms,” it said in a report.

Moody’s forecast is within the government’s revised 5.5-6.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for this year.

In the second quarter, GDP expanded by an annual 5.5%, up from 5.4% in the first quarter but slower than the 6.5% in the same period last year. For the first half, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Moody’s flagged downside risks to the outlook arising from the US tariff policies.

“Although the Philippines’ exposure to trade and global value chains is relatively low, uncertainty around US trade policy and tariffs presents some downside risks to domestic consumption and investment,” it said.

Since Aug. 7, the United States has been imposing a 19% tariff on Philippine goods entering the US. The US is one of the top destinations for Philippine-made goods.

Growth will also be supported by its fiscal consolidation efforts, but Moody’s flagged the government’s high debt stock and interest burden.

“Fiscal consolidation efforts are on track to meet the government’s revised Medium-Term Fiscal Framework of reducing the deficit to 4.3% of GDP by 2028, supported by the implementation of reform measures at enhancing revenue collection and spending efficiency,” Moody’s said.

While this will help temper Philippines’ debt burden, Moody’s said debt will remain “above pre-pandemic levels.”

As of June, the Philippines’ sovereign debt hit a fresh high of P17.27 trillion, up 11.5% from P15.48 trillion in the same month in 2024.

This brought the debt-to-GDP ratio to 63.1% at the end of June, the highest ratio since 2005. This is above the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold considered by multilateral lenders to be manageable for developing economies.

“Debt affordability, measured by the ratio of interest payments to revenue, is expected to weaken over the next two years, before gradually normalizing as global refinancing rates decline and economic growth returns to its long-term trend,” the debt watcher said.

“Despite rate cuts by the central bank since the second half of 2024, elevated government funding costs and a lag in the monetary policy transmission will keep interest burden higher,” it added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Moody’s Ratings of a 5.7% economic growth for 2025 will turn out true? What do you think it will take for the Philippine economy to reach 6% growth this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco