growth – Page 2 – Author Carlo Carrasco

Philippines Lowers Economic Growth Target Amid Global Uncertainty

July 2, 2025June 27, 2025carlocarrasco

As there are more signs of weakness and uncertainty, the economic managers of the Philippines officially lowered their economic growth target this year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Economic managers on Thursday revised the economic growth target for this year amid mounting global uncertainties.

At a briefing after the 191st Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) meeting, Budget Secretary and DBCC Chair Amenah Pangandaman said the economic growth assumption for 2025 was revised downward to 5.5 to 6.5 percent from the previous 6 to 8 percent.

For 2026 to 2028, the Philippine economy is projected to expand by 6 to 7 percent, reflecting a more cautious and resilient economic outlook amid global headwinds.

“The revisions take into account heightened global uncertainties, such as the unforeseen escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the imposition of U.S. tariffs,” Pangandaman said.

She said that despite these challenges, the DBCC remains “vigilant and ready to deploy timely and targeted measures” to mitigate their potential impact on the Philippine economy.

The budget chief said the country continues to be one of the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN driven by robust domestic demand.

To maintain this momentum, she highlighted the administration’s focus on structural reforms, including the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act and the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Code, both designed to enhance the country’s trade and investment competitiveness.

Pangandaman said the government will also pursue the approval and implementation of other reforms recently ratified by Congress, such as the Liberalizing the Lease of Private Lands by Foreign Investors Act, Enhanced Fiscal Regime for Large-Scale Metallic Mining Act, Accelerated and Reformed Right-of-Way (ARROW) Act, and Konektadong Pinoy Act.

The DBCC also revisited the medium-term macroeconomic assumptions to take into consideration recent global and domestic developments.

The inflation assumption for this year was cut to 2 to 3 percent from the previous 2 to 4 percent. For 2026 to 2028, the inflation assumption was retained at 2 to 4 percent.

For 2025 to 2028, crude oil price assumptions were reduced to USD60 to USD70 per barrel from USD60 to 80 per barrel, despite escalating geopolitical tensions.

The foreign exchange rate is assumed to remain stable, averaging at PHP56 to PHP58 per US dollar from 2025 through 2028, supported by lower domestic inflation.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines is lacking momentum to achieve 6% growth this year? Do you think that inflation and unemployment will eventually rise before the year ends? Are you convinced that foreign investors are staying away from the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BPI lead economist says Philippine economy will accelerate this year

January 30, 2025January 22, 2025carlocarrasco

For the lead economist of Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), the economy of the Philippines will accelerate this year in connection to rising household consumption as well as other factors, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

Growth of the Philippine economy is expected to accelerate this year, driven by the continued expansion of household consumption, an economist from the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) said.

“We expect the Philippine economy to expand by 6.3% in 2025, outpacing the previous year’s performance, with household consumption remaining its biggest driver,” BPI lead economist Jun Neri said in a commentary released late Wednesday.

Neri earlier forecast a 6.1 percent economic growth for 2024.

Neri said factors sustaining household consumption growth such as remittance inflows, remained in place despite the economic slowdown in major economies.

“With aging populations abroad driving the demand for labor, the impact of headwinds on remittances like trade barriers and anti-immigration sentiment will likely be limited. Remittances also have a strong track record of stability and growth even in times of crisis, as seen during the pandemic,” he said.

Neri said the country’s low unemployment rate is also expected to support consumption.

“This should continue to drive the growth of household income and the expansion of the middle class,” he said.

Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the unemployment rate further went down to 3.2 percent in November last year from 3.6 percent in November 2023.

Consumer spending, meanwhile, is expected to grow at a faster pace this year as inflation remains at a manageable level.

“This improvement will likely be most apparent in discretionary spending after a period of slower growth caused by high inflation, as consumers focused more on essentials,” said Neri.

Inflation will likely settle at 3.5 percent this year, well within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target, Neri said.

Meanwhile, he said the recent reduction in interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), will also help boost economic growth.

To recall, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reduced policy rates for a total of 75 basis points this year.

The BSP also reduced the RRR of universal and commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 basis points.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to grow by at least 6.3% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Lower-than-expected economic growth for the Philippines until 2025

November 26, 2024November 19, 2024carlocarrasco

Based on the recent findings of Citigroup, Inc., the growth domestic product (GDP) of the Philippines will grow at a lower-than-expected rate until 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to expand slower than the government’s target until 2025, Citigroup, Inc. (Citi) said.

Citi cut its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.8% this year but kept its 6% growth forecast for 2025. This is below the government’s 6-7% target this year and 6.5-7.5% goal next year.

“We lowered 2024 GDP growth slightly from 6% to 5.8%, mainly due to a weak third-quarter outturn that had been a result of several temporary, weather-related factors,” Citi economist for Thailand and the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham said in a report.

The Philippine economy slowed to 5.2% in the July-to-September period from 6.4% in the second quarter and 6% a year ago. This was also the weakest growth since the 4.3% expansion in the second quarter of last year.

“Nonetheless, we think it would be misleading to view the weaker third-quarter expansion as the start of a slowdown as several negative factors in the third quarter are one-off events,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

She said the weakness in third-quarter economic growth mainly stemmed from the drop in agriculture production, construction activity and net exports.

Despite the weak third quarter, Citi expects growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter as domestic demand is seen to pick up due to easing inflation and lower rates.

“We expect fourth-quarter 2024 GDP growth to accelerate to 6% year on year. Household consumption is expected to continue improving, supported by lower interest rates and improved consumer sentiment as inflation continues to stabilize.”

In the first nine months, GDP grew by 5.8%. The economy would need to grow by at least 6.5% in the fourth quarter to meet the lower end of the government’s 6-7% target.

“With the storm season passing soon, we also expect infrastructure projects’ progress to proceed at a faster clip in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

Domestic demand will also likely be sustained by improving employment conditions, remittance growth and bank lending.

“The RRR (reserve requirement ratio) cut of 250 basis points (bps), effective on Oct. 25, would also release more liquidity into the banking system and likely continue to support strong credit expansion,” Ms. Chutchotitham added.

The central bank last month reduced the RRR for universal and commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 bps to 7%.

“We also maintain our expectation of 6% growth in 2025 but see some upside risks due to tailwinds from more rate cuts,” Citi said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will likely cut by 25 bps in December and by a total of 75 bps next year, according to Citi.

This year so far, the central bank has reduced interest rates by 50 bps since August. The Monetary Board is set to hold its last rate-setting meeting of the year on Dec. 19.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines still has enough momentum to exceed the 4^th quarter growth targets of economists?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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US President-elect Trump and Philippine President Marcos discuss alliance over the phone

November 23, 2024November 20, 2024carlocarrasco

In recent times, the returning US President Donald Trump and President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., talked with each other on the phone and discussed the US-Philippines alliance, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

For the newcomers reading this, Trump pulled off the greatest American political comeback ever after crushing Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. spoke to United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump over the phone on Tuesday morning, where they discussed the longstanding alliance between their two countries.

In a media interview during his visit to typhoon-hit communities in the province of Catanduanes, Marcos said he expressed to Trump the Philippines’ openness to further deepen relations with its oldest and strongest military ally.

“I expressed to him our continuing desire to strengthen that relationship between our two countries, which is a relationship that is as deep as can possibly be because it has been for a very long time,” he said.

The President said he also expressed his intention to meet with Trump as soon as possible. He added that he told Trump that Filipinos in the US voted “overwhelmingly” in his favor.

Trump is set for his second term as US president after winning the recently held elections.

According to Marcos, it is his mother, Imelda Marcos, who is a close friend of Trump.

“Ang kaibigan niya talaga mother ko. Kilalang-kilala niya ang mother ko. Kinukumusta niya, ‘How’s Imelda?’ Sabi ko binabati ka nga (It is really my mother who is his friend. He knows my mother very well. He asked how she is, ‘How’s Imelda?’ I said she is extending her congratulations),” he said.

Although he said they did not talk about the fears of a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants in the US after Trump’s win, Marcos assured that the government is already working on it to assist affected Filipinos.

“We didn’t talk about that. It was just a congratulatory call. But, of course, our ambassador is already working on that,” he said.

Nonetheless, Marcos said his conversation with Trump was “very productive.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Are you concerned that once Trump takes office again as US President on January 20, 2025, a lot of Filipinos illegally staying in America will get deported along with millions of other illegal aliens? Are you concerned that the dynamics of trade between the United States and the Philippines will be changed drastically? Do you think America under Trump will increase military support for the Philippines facing the bullying presence of China?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines October 2024 inflation rate settles at 2.3%

November 14, 2024November 5, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently it was announced that the inflation rate of the Philippines for October 2024 settled at 2.3%, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. By comparison, the nation’s inflation rate was at 4.9% in October 2023.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Inflation continued to settle within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target despite a slight uptick in October this year.

In a briefing on Tuesday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said headline inflation during the month was at 2.3 percent, slightly higher than the 1.9 percent recorded in September this year. Inflation in October last year, however, was higher at 4.9 percent.

The latest data brings the national average inflation rate from January to October 2024 to 3.3 percent.

Mapa said the higher inflation in October was primarily influenced by the faster increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages at 2.9 percent from 1.4 percent in September 2024.

Despite the increase, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) are optimistic that inflation will remain within target this year.

“The latest inflation figures confirm that we are on track to keep inflation within target. The government is fully committed to ensuring price stability and protecting Filipino households from undue shocks,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said in a statement.

Balisacan assured the public that while recent weather disturbances posed challenges to the country’s food supply and logistics, the government will work “relentlessly to keep food available and prices steady, particularly for essential commodities.”

“With targeted support and streamlined food supply chains, we aim to ensure that food is affordable and accessible for Filipino families, especially those most vulnerable to price shocks when disasters hit us,” Balisacan said.

To mitigate the impact of natural disasters, Balisacan said the Department of Social Welfare and Development is implementing the Building on Social Protection for Anticipatory Action and Response in Emergencies and Disasters Program.

The program provides social safety nets and capacity-building measures to support affected communities.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration earlier forecast that La Niña will persist until the first quarter of 2025, with two to eight tropical cyclones expected to affect the country until April 2025.

“The President has mobilized all of government to ensure relief efforts are comprehensive and delivered on time. In addition, he has directed us to craft a robust solution to build the resilience of families and communities amid the onslaught of severe typhoons,” Balisacan said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the inflation rate of the nation will end up between 2% to 4% for the final two months of the year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines 3rd quarter economic growth settles at 5.2%

November 12, 2024November 8, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently it was announced that the economy of the Philippines expanded by 5.2% in the 3^rd quarter of 2024, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines remains one of the fastest growing economies in the region despite the slowdown in the third quarter of the year, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said on Thursday.

Philippine economic growth settled at 5.2 percent in the third quarter, lower than the 6 percent recorded in the same period last year.

The latest data brought the year-to-date gross domestic product (GDP) expansion to 5.8 percent, slightly under the 6-percent lower end of the government’s growth target for this year.

“Our economy continues to grow steadily; the latest GDP figures indicate continuous expansion. Of the countries that have reported their third-quarter GDP growth rates, we remain one of the fastest-growing Asian economies,” Balisacan said in a briefing at the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) office in Quezon City.

“We follow Vietnam, which posted a 7.4 percent growth rate, and are ahead of Indonesia (with 4.9 percent), China (4.6 percent), and Singapore (4.1 percent), ” he added.

Among the major economic sectors, industry and services grew by 5 percent and 6.3 percent in the third quarter.

National Statistician Dennis Mapa said, however, that agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector contracted by 2.8 percent.

Balisacan explained that the contraction in the agriculture sector was due to the effects of El Niño, seven typhoons, and Habagat. He added the fishing ban in Cavite and Bataan due to the oil spill, and cancellation of fishing trips due to bad weather conditions, also affected fishing and aquaculture.

“Likewise, livestock production decreased due to the recent outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), such as in Batangas last August,” he said.

Balisacan said the successive typhoons also suspended classes and work in government and some private offices, resulting in administrative delays.

Household final consumption expenditure grew by 5.1 percent, which Balisacan attributed to the slower consumer price inflation. Government final consumption expenditure slowed to 5 percent from 6.7 percent.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will grow much faster in the 4^th quarter?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economy of the Philippines to keep growing above 6% in 2024 and 2025

November 1, 2024October 24, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently, an economist predicted that the economy of the Philippines will keep growing above 6% this year and next year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy is expected to remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region, with growth likely settling at above 6 percent for 2024 and 2025.

In his economic and market outlook released on Tuesday, BPI senior vice president and lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. said economic growth will likely hit 6.1 percent this year and further accelerate to 6.3 percent in 2025.

“The Philippine economy has been resilient despite significant headwinds like severe El Niño and devastating typhoons, still managing to grow by 6% in the first half of 2024,” Neri said.

“Looking ahead, the Philippine economy will likely continue to outperform in the region, supported by its strong consumer base,” he added.

Neri expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2 percent in 2024 and further decelerate to 2.8 percent in 2025.

“Inflation is expected to be more manageable in the coming year given the improving prospects of food supply. With El Niño now behind us and the potential increase in production, along with tariff reductions, rice may become more affordable,” he said.

Neri said lower inflation may help boost consumption in the coming year, while election-related spending could also further stimulate economic activity.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to exceed the growth forecasts of the economists for 2024 and beyond? Do you think the Philippines can do a better job on attracting more foreign investors soon?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines achieved double-digit tax collection growth in first 9 months of 2024

October 23, 2024October 11, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the Department of Finance (DOF) announced that the Philippines achieved double-digit growth in the January-September stretch of 2024, according to a Manila Bulletin business news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The Department of Finance (DOF) reported that collections from the government’s two main tax agencies showed strong double-digit growth in the first nine months of the year.

The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and the Bureau of Customs collectively gathered P2.771 trillion from January to September 2024, a 10 percent increase from P2.518 trillion in the same period last year.

Of this total, the BIR, which is responsible for nearly 70 percent of the government’s annual revenue, collected P2.08 trillion by the end of September—a 12 percent increase compared to P1.858 trillion the previous year.

This nine-month collection accounted for 73 percent of the BIR’s full-year target of P2.842 trillion.

In contrast, the Customs bureau raised P690.8 billion as of September, a modest 4.6 percent increase from P660.39 billion in the previous year. This amount represents 73.5 percent of its annual target of P939.7 billion.

In May, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) revised its tax collection projections for the BIR and Customs downward, citing expectations of slower economic growth this year.

According to the DBCC’s 2024 Quarterly Fiscal Program, approved on May 23, the BIR and Customs are now expected to collect P3.788 trillion this year, a reduction of 5.6 percent from the original target of P4.014 trillion.

The BIR’s full-year collection target was adjusted down by 6.7 percent from the previous goal of P3.055 trillion, while the Customs bureau’s target was lowered by 2 percent from the earlier estimate of P959 billion.

Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman, who chairs the DBCC, explained to the Manila Bulletin that these adjustments were primarily driven by a lower-than-expected economic growth outlook, among other factors.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the BIR will be able to collect P3 trillion by the end of the year? Do you think the recent tax collection reports suggest that the national economy will grow stronger in the next two years?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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AMRO sees Philippine economy growing 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025

October 15, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

In its recent update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) sees the economy of the Philippines achieving growth of 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES will likely post the second-fastest growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus 3 (ASEAN+3) region this year and in 2025, driven by faster government spending and easing interest rates, according to a regional think tank.

In its October update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines at 6.1% this year and 6.3% next year.

“We didn’t change the forecast for the Philippines. As you can see, we expect growth to be at 6.1%, which will be an improvement from last year’s 5.6%,” AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor told a virtual briefing on Thursday.

“This is mainly because we expect government investment spending to be higher this year, together with services exports,” he said.

The AMRO’s projection is within the government’s 6-7% target for 2024. However, its 2025 forecast is below the government’s 6.5-7.5% goal.

Mr. Khor said Philippine economic growth remains one of the strongest in the ASEAN+3 region, which includes members of the ASEAN, China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.

AMRO’s growth forecast for the Philippines is just behind Vietnam (6.2%), and ahead of Cambodia (5.6%), Indonesia (5.1%), China (5%), Malaysia (4.7%), Laos (4.5%), Brunei Darussalam (4%), Hong Kong (3.3%), Thailand (2.8%), South Korea (2.5%), Singapore (2.4%), Myanmar (1.8%) and Japan (0.5%).

Philippine growth is also projected to be above the projected ASEAN+3 average of 4.2% this year. This was slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.4%.

“Growth for the region will be driven by continued recovery in external trade, resilient domestic demand, and a boost in tourism due to relaxed visa policies in some economies,” AMRO said.

For 2025, the ASEAN+3 region’s growth forecast was upgraded to 4.4% from 4.3% previously, in line with expectations of steady global growth.

“The region is on track to achieve steady growth this year and the next and this will be underpinned by resilient domestic demand and the ongoing recovery in exports,” AMRO Principal Economist Allen Ng told the briefing.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation the Philippine economy has enough momentum to grow better in 2025 than what AMRO predicted?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines achieves 5.7% economic growth in 1st quarter of 2024

May 23, 2024May 9, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently it was confirmed that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.7% in the first quarter of 2024 which is noticeably lower than what was achieved in the same time period a year ago, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy grew by 5.7 percent in the first quarter of the year, surpassing other major economies in the region.

In a briefing on Thursday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said the economic growth during the quarter was higher than the 5.5 percent seen in the last quarter of 2023.

Mapa said, however, it was lower than the 6.4 percent economic growth seen in the first quarter of last year.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan noted that the Philippine economy continues to demonstrate resilience and growth despite the domestic and external headwinds.

“Despite our challenges on both domestic and international fronts, our economy continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and growth. This performance retains the country’s position as a leading force among Asia’s emerging economies,” he said.

Balisacan said the first quarter Philippine gross domestic product growth rate is about the same as Vietnam’s, and surpassed other major economies such as China at 5.3 percent, Indonesia at 5.1 percent, and Malaysia at 3.9 percent.

All major economic indicators which include agriculture, forestry, and fishing; industry; and services posted year-on-year growth in the first quarter at 0.4 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.9 percent.

Household final consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure posted lower growth rates at 4.6 percent and 1.7 percent from a year ago’s 6.4 percent and 6.2 percent.

Balisacan said the slowdown in household spending was due to the elevated prices of major food items and the heat wave.

“Meanwhile, government spending also slowed down, primarily due to the sliding of a large amount of expenditure to April this year, whereas the government made such spending in March last year,” he said.

Gross capital formation also posted a lower growth of 1.3 percent from 12.8 percent last year, while imports of goods and services also slowed to 2.3 percent from 4.2 percent.

Growth of exports of goods and services, however, accelerated to 7.5 percent from 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023. Balisacan said the growth in exports was mainly driven by the recovery in the exports of electronics products.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national economy will be able to grow at least 6% in each of the next three quarters? Is it possible that the intense summer heat will make 2nd quarter economic growth smaller?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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