growth – Page 3 – Author Carlo Carrasco

Economy of the Philippines to keep growing above 6% in 2024 and 2025

November 1, 2024October 24, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently, an economist predicted that the economy of the Philippines will keep growing above 6% this year and next year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy is expected to remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region, with growth likely settling at above 6 percent for 2024 and 2025.

In his economic and market outlook released on Tuesday, BPI senior vice president and lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. said economic growth will likely hit 6.1 percent this year and further accelerate to 6.3 percent in 2025.

“The Philippine economy has been resilient despite significant headwinds like severe El Niño and devastating typhoons, still managing to grow by 6% in the first half of 2024,” Neri said.

“Looking ahead, the Philippine economy will likely continue to outperform in the region, supported by its strong consumer base,” he added.

Neri expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2 percent in 2024 and further decelerate to 2.8 percent in 2025.

“Inflation is expected to be more manageable in the coming year given the improving prospects of food supply. With El Niño now behind us and the potential increase in production, along with tariff reductions, rice may become more affordable,” he said.

Neri said lower inflation may help boost consumption in the coming year, while election-related spending could also further stimulate economic activity.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to exceed the growth forecasts of the economists for 2024 and beyond? Do you think the Philippines can do a better job on attracting more foreign investors soon?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines achieved double-digit tax collection growth in first 9 months of 2024

October 23, 2024October 11, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the Department of Finance (DOF) announced that the Philippines achieved double-digit growth in the January-September stretch of 2024, according to a Manila Bulletin business news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The Department of Finance (DOF) reported that collections from the government’s two main tax agencies showed strong double-digit growth in the first nine months of the year.

The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and the Bureau of Customs collectively gathered P2.771 trillion from January to September 2024, a 10 percent increase from P2.518 trillion in the same period last year.

Of this total, the BIR, which is responsible for nearly 70 percent of the government’s annual revenue, collected P2.08 trillion by the end of September—a 12 percent increase compared to P1.858 trillion the previous year.

This nine-month collection accounted for 73 percent of the BIR’s full-year target of P2.842 trillion.

In contrast, the Customs bureau raised P690.8 billion as of September, a modest 4.6 percent increase from P660.39 billion in the previous year. This amount represents 73.5 percent of its annual target of P939.7 billion.

In May, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) revised its tax collection projections for the BIR and Customs downward, citing expectations of slower economic growth this year.

According to the DBCC’s 2024 Quarterly Fiscal Program, approved on May 23, the BIR and Customs are now expected to collect P3.788 trillion this year, a reduction of 5.6 percent from the original target of P4.014 trillion.

The BIR’s full-year collection target was adjusted down by 6.7 percent from the previous goal of P3.055 trillion, while the Customs bureau’s target was lowered by 2 percent from the earlier estimate of P959 billion.

Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman, who chairs the DBCC, explained to the Manila Bulletin that these adjustments were primarily driven by a lower-than-expected economic growth outlook, among other factors.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the BIR will be able to collect P3 trillion by the end of the year? Do you think the recent tax collection reports suggest that the national economy will grow stronger in the next two years?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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AMRO sees Philippine economy growing 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025

October 15, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

In its recent update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) sees the economy of the Philippines achieving growth of 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES will likely post the second-fastest growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus 3 (ASEAN+3) region this year and in 2025, driven by faster government spending and easing interest rates, according to a regional think tank.

In its October update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines at 6.1% this year and 6.3% next year.

“We didn’t change the forecast for the Philippines. As you can see, we expect growth to be at 6.1%, which will be an improvement from last year’s 5.6%,” AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor told a virtual briefing on Thursday.

“This is mainly because we expect government investment spending to be higher this year, together with services exports,” he said.

The AMRO’s projection is within the government’s 6-7% target for 2024. However, its 2025 forecast is below the government’s 6.5-7.5% goal.

Mr. Khor said Philippine economic growth remains one of the strongest in the ASEAN+3 region, which includes members of the ASEAN, China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.

AMRO’s growth forecast for the Philippines is just behind Vietnam (6.2%), and ahead of Cambodia (5.6%), Indonesia (5.1%), China (5%), Malaysia (4.7%), Laos (4.5%), Brunei Darussalam (4%), Hong Kong (3.3%), Thailand (2.8%), South Korea (2.5%), Singapore (2.4%), Myanmar (1.8%) and Japan (0.5%).

Philippine growth is also projected to be above the projected ASEAN+3 average of 4.2% this year. This was slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.4%.

“Growth for the region will be driven by continued recovery in external trade, resilient domestic demand, and a boost in tourism due to relaxed visa policies in some economies,” AMRO said.

For 2025, the ASEAN+3 region’s growth forecast was upgraded to 4.4% from 4.3% previously, in line with expectations of steady global growth.

“The region is on track to achieve steady growth this year and the next and this will be underpinned by resilient domestic demand and the ongoing recovery in exports,” AMRO Principal Economist Allen Ng told the briefing.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation the Philippine economy has enough momentum to grow better in 2025 than what AMRO predicted?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines achieves 5.7% economic growth in 1st quarter of 2024

May 23, 2024May 9, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently it was confirmed that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.7% in the first quarter of 2024 which is noticeably lower than what was achieved in the same time period a year ago, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy grew by 5.7 percent in the first quarter of the year, surpassing other major economies in the region.

In a briefing on Thursday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said the economic growth during the quarter was higher than the 5.5 percent seen in the last quarter of 2023.

Mapa said, however, it was lower than the 6.4 percent economic growth seen in the first quarter of last year.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan noted that the Philippine economy continues to demonstrate resilience and growth despite the domestic and external headwinds.

“Despite our challenges on both domestic and international fronts, our economy continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and growth. This performance retains the country’s position as a leading force among Asia’s emerging economies,” he said.

Balisacan said the first quarter Philippine gross domestic product growth rate is about the same as Vietnam’s, and surpassed other major economies such as China at 5.3 percent, Indonesia at 5.1 percent, and Malaysia at 3.9 percent.

All major economic indicators which include agriculture, forestry, and fishing; industry; and services posted year-on-year growth in the first quarter at 0.4 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.9 percent.

Household final consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure posted lower growth rates at 4.6 percent and 1.7 percent from a year ago’s 6.4 percent and 6.2 percent.

Balisacan said the slowdown in household spending was due to the elevated prices of major food items and the heat wave.

“Meanwhile, government spending also slowed down, primarily due to the sliding of a large amount of expenditure to April this year, whereas the government made such spending in March last year,” he said.

Gross capital formation also posted a lower growth of 1.3 percent from 12.8 percent last year, while imports of goods and services also slowed to 2.3 percent from 4.2 percent.

Growth of exports of goods and services, however, accelerated to 7.5 percent from 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023. Balisacan said the growth in exports was mainly driven by the recovery in the exports of electronics products.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national economy will be able to grow at least 6% in each of the next three quarters? Is it possible that the intense summer heat will make 2nd quarter economic growth smaller?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economic analysts say that the Philippine economy needs to grow more than 6% per quarter to hit 2024 target

May 23, 2024May 14, 2024carlocarrasco

In light of the recent news that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.7% during the 1^st quarter of 2024, economic analysts stated that growth should be more than 6% per quarter over the next three quarters in order to meet the set target of the year, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY should expand by more than 6% in the next three quarters to meet the government’s growth target this year, analysts said.

“The Philippines needs to grow almost 6.1% for the remaining three quarters to reach 6% growth for the entire year, which appears to be a tall order, particularly given the slowdown in household spending in quarter one and the subdued global economic backdrop this year,” Makoto Tsuchiya, an economist at Oxford Economics Japan, said in an e-mail.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, slightly faster than the 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 but below the government’s 6-7% target.

University of Asia and the Pacific Senior Economist Cid L. Terosa said GDP growth should average 6-6.5% for the rest of the year to hit the lower end of the government’s target band.

“We had always been expecting growth to stay subdued largely due to the ‘triple threat’ faced by the economy. Elevated inflation, high borrowing costs and fiscal consolidation are the troika of challenges we face,” ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said in an e-mail.

Household spending, which accounts for nearly three-fourths of economic output, rose by 4.6% in the January-to-March, the slowest since the coronavirus pandemic and weaker than 5.3% in the fourth quarter and 6.4% a year ago.

Mr. Tsuchiya said private consumption lagged due to “economic-wide” pressures on spending in the first three months of the year.

“We believe the softening in household consumption was due to a combination of elevated inflation, tepid confidence and the impact of monetary tightening,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

Inflation quickened to 3.8% in April amid rising food and transport costs. April was the third straight month that inflation accelerated.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that inflation will continue to rise and prevent the Philippines from achieving economic growth of 6% for 2024?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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P25 billion worth of residential projects planned by Filinvest Land, Inc. (FLI) this year

May 2, 2024April 22, 2024carlocarrasco

Filinvest Land, Inc. (FLI) will continue to be aggressive with property development as they recently announced they will introduce this year more residential projects worth an estimated P25 billion located in different parts of the country, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

GOTIANUN-LED property developer Filinvest Land, Inc. (FLI) has announced plans to introduce residential projects worth P25 billion this year.

“(We) aim to optimize our land bank and sustain our strong market presence in cities where we are already present,” FLI President and Chief Executive Officer Tristaneil D. Las Marias said during the company’s virtual annual stockholders meeting on Friday last week.

Some of the residential projects eyed to be launched this year are located in Cavite, he added. These include the company’s first mid-rise condominium project in Bacoor, as well as new developments for its 94-hectare The Wood Estates residential township in Trece Martires.

“We will upgrade our Wood Estates… with commercial shops, transport terminals, and affordable low-rise condo developments,” he said.

Mr. Las Marias also announced that FLI will launch the 11.4-hectare Iloilo Centrale residential township in Leganes, Iloilo, which will include supermarkets, daycare centers, public transport terminals, a park, and a football field.

“Iloilo Centrale will also offer our first walk-up project which will provide very affordable condo units located in a complete residential setting that provides social spaces, outdoor sports, activity event areas, and modern amenities at very affordable prices,” he said.

“We have also kept a balanced geographical portfolio for our residential business by exploiting residential business opportunities in key cities in Visayas and Mindanao,” he added.

He said that FLI will open several mid-rise condo buildings in Dumaguete, Zamboanga, and General Santos.

The company also plans to launch taller condo buildings in Cebu and Davao to “match the growing market potentials in these highly urbanized cities and optimize land bank values.”

“We have also seen the huge unserved demand in housing. We plan to continue to offer affordable housing projects in Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Bataan, Zamboanga, and other second class cities in Visayas and Mindanao with the intent to make housing accessible to as much government and private workers within the mass market income bracket and help more Filipinos build their dream,” he said.

FLI is also planning to complete nine additional ready-built factories at its Filinvest Innovation Park in the next two years. The planned factories will span 12,500 square meters each.

Last month, FLI completed the turnover of a ready-built factory to StB GIGA for the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

The Filinvest Innovation Park is within the Filinvest New Clark City mixed-use township, which is part of the 9,450-hectare New Clark City development in Capas, Tarlac.

“We also have about 55 hectares of land available for long-term lease already built at the moment,” he said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the planned residential projects of FLI will make positive socio-economic impact in the mentioned locations around the country? Do you think there is good demand for new homes around the country?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Moody’s Ratings sees the Philippines becoming the 2nd fastest growing Southeast Asian economy this year and in 2025

April 15, 2024April 3, 2024carlocarrasco

For this year and 2025, Moody’s Ratings projects the Philippines will end up as the 2^nd fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES is projected to be the second-fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia this year and in 2025 as domestic demand is expected to remain resilient, according to Moody’s Ratings.

“We have kept unchanged our 2024 and 2025 forecasts for the Philippines and Malaysia and also expect sequentially higher growth in both countries. Domestic demand remains the primary economic growth engine for the Philippines,” it said in a report.

Moody’s Ratings kept its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Philippines at 5.9% this year and 6% in 2025.

However, these projections fall short of the government’s growth targets of 6.5-7.5% for this year and 6.5-8% for next year.

At 5.9%, the Philippines has the second-fastest projected growth in Southeast Asia for 2024, after Vietnam (6%). It is ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.5%) and Thailand (2.8%).

For 2025, the Philippines is again expected to post the second-fastest growth behind Vietnam (6.5%) but ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.8%), and Thailand (3%).

Moody’s Ratings said that growth in domestic demand-driven countries like the Philippines is “increasing more than we previously expected.”

The economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 5.6% in 2023, slower than the 7.6% expansion in 2022 and short of the 6-7% government goal.

Household consumption typically accounts for three-fourths of the Philippine economy. Last year, household spending expanded by 5.6%, much slower than 8.3% in 2022.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Ratings sees inflation averaging 3.8% this year, higher than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 3.6% full-year forecast but within the 2-4% target.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that strong household consumption alone can help the Philippine economy grow stronger than what Moody’s Ratings projected for 2024 and 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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World Bank sees stronger Philippine economic growth in 2025

April 11, 2024April 2, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the World Bank (WB) revealed its forecast of stronger economic growth for the Philippines in the year 2025 although still below the projections of the government, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE WORLD BANK (WB) maintained its economic growth forecast for the Philippines this year but raised its 2025 growth projection, amid expectations of higher consumer spending and foreign investments.

In its latest East Asia and Pacific (EAP) Economic Update, the World Bank said it expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.8% this year, the fastest in Southeast Asia along with Cambodia.

The Philippines and Cambodia are seen to expand faster than Vietnam (5.5%), Indonesia (4.9%), Malaysia (4.3%), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (4.0%), Timor-Leste (3.6%), Thailand (2.8%) and Myanmar (1.3%).

For 2025, the World Bank raised its GDP forecast for the Philippines to 5.9% from 5.8%.

However, the World Bank’s growth forecasts for the Philippines are lower than the government’s target of 6.5-7.5% for 2024 and 6.5-8% for 2025 to 2028.

“What has sustained growth in the Philippines, like much of the region, has been consumption and the recovery in services,” WB East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Aaditya Mattoo said at a virtual briefing on Monday.

He noted foreign investment flows into the Philippines might increase after the government implemented significant reforms such as Republic Act No. 11659 or the Public Service Act, which allows full foreign ownership in key sectors such as telecommunications and airlines.

“(The reforms) should begin to pay off in terms of greater foreign investment, which though in the short run… the flows have been less strong than we would have expected,” Mr. Mattoo said.

Climate and geopolitical shocks, as well as elevated inflation and high interest rates are risks to the growth outlook.

“If there is a resurgence in inflation, for example in the United States, which might well see interest rates even higher for longer, that would certainly affect growth throughout the region as we have estimated,” he said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippine economy can grow stronger than the forecast of the World Bank for 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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First Metro Investment Corp. and University of Asia and the Pacific expect Philippine economy will grow by 6% this year

January 19, 2024January 13, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently, First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC) and the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) expressed expectation that the economy of the Philippines will achieve 6% growth for the year 2024, according to a BusinessWorld news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES’ gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow faster this year as easing inflation will help boost “revenge spending,” analysts said.

First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC) and the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said they expect GDP growth at 6% this year, still below the government’s 6.5-7.6% target.

“I think they will not be able to make the 6.5% unless foreign investments come in. And so far, if we look at 2023, foreign investments were actually down significantly… but we have to see how things pan out in the coming months,” Victor A. Abola, an economist at UA&P, said at a briefing in Makati City on Thursday.

FMIC and UA&P projected full-year GDP to average 5.5% in 2023, still below the government’s 6-7%. The economy grew by 5.5% in the nine-month period.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is set to release full-year 2023 GDP data on Jan. 31.

“Growth will accelerate from 5.5% (in 2023) to 6% (in 2024), driven by the services sector, particularly, transport, accommodations, and food services, which are experiencing revenge spending,” Mr. Abola said.

Filipino consumers are expected to continue to splurge this year, which will help drive growth.

“We’re just seeing the beginning of (revenge spending) because high inflation has sort of toned down that expansion. So, I think that we’ll see faster GDP growth in 2024,” Mr. Abola said.

Improved employment will also boost the economy this year, Mr. Abola said, citing the record low jobless rate seen in November.

The country’s unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in November from 4.2% in the previous month and a year ago, marking an 18-year low. In November, the number of employed people also rose to 49.64 million from 47.8 million in October and 49.7 million in November 2022.

FMIC Executive Vice-President Daniel D. Camacho said the BSP will likely keep rates steady for the first half.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think internal and external economic factors will somehow become favorable for the Philippines and allow better economic growth along the way? Do you think there is too much attention paid on so-called revenge spending?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Watch out for Villar City

August 28, 2023August 24, 2023carlocarrasco

In the years to come and if no major disasters would happen, something new will be rising in the south of Metro Manila. I am talking about the ambitious Villar City project which has been making waves through the media, social media and in nearby communities in recent times. Recently the Manila Bulletin published an article about the planned casino project within Villar City but if you pay close attention to the details, there is a lot more about the said city which should give you an idea about the scope and vision behind it.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin article. Some parts in boldface…

Philippines’ richest Manuel B. Villar Jr. announced plans to put up a satellite casino in his newly-launched Villar City in addition to the one he is developing in the 80-hectare Global South integrated resort project.

Being his legacy project, Villar is carefully designing Villar City to be Metro Manila’s “new center of gravity” to ensure that it will be as iconic as it is massive.

The planned 3,500-hectare Villar City spans 15 cities: Taguig, Las Pinas, Paranaque, Muntinlupa, Bacoor, Dasmarinas, Imus, San Pedro, General Mariano Alvarez, Silang, General Trias, Tanza, Trece Martires, Carmona, and Tagaytay.

Villar City will be about 10 times as big as Bonifacio Global City, indicating its sheer magnitude not only in terms of the number of homes, offices and complexes that will be built within this vast community, but also with respect to its potential contribution to job generation and economic development.

Among the highlights of the city’s development will be his second casino project which will be a satellite of the $1 billion integrated casino and resort complex in Global South that is being developed with a Korean partner.

He noted that they have finalized discussions for the partnership with the Korean firm for the Global South project and the cost may likely exceed $1 billion because the land alone is already worth that much.

The first casino will also have a hotel component while Villar said he is converting the upper two floors of the mall there in a casino for high-rollers and VIPs. At 80-hectares, it will be bigger than any of the casinos at the PAGCOR Entertainment City in Parañaque.

Meanwhile, Villar said the satellite casino in Villar City will be bigger but he is not yet sure if it will be developed with the same Korean firm noting that, “It will depend on how well our partnership (in Global South) progresses.”

Aside from the casino, another highlight of Villar City will be a theme park which Villar plans to integrate with the mall that will be built there.

He said they will develop their own concept for the theme park and will not be getting a license or franchise from a foreign theme park operator.

“Part of the them park will be inside the mall so that there will be plenty of things to do in case it rains or when it is too hot outside. So part of the theme park will be indoors and both the theme park and mall will complement each other,” Villar said.

Villar also said he plans to donate a piece of land in Villar City to the University of the Philippines, his alma mater, to build a college focused on technology noting that, located at the city’s entrance is La Salle Dasmariñas.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think Villar City will create a lot of new jobs related to construction and service in connection with its very ambitious scope? Do you think that south of Metro Manila will be receptive to new casinos and theme parks in the future?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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