In its latest analysis of the economy of the Philippines, the World Bank (WB) predicts a below-target economic growth will happen in 2028, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
THE WORLD BANK said the Philippine economy is likely to expand by 5.6% in 2028, still below the government’s 6-7% target, amid an expected recovery in public investment.
In the latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said it retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for the Philippines at 3.7% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027.
If realized, growth would fall short of the government’s 5-6% target for 2026 but would be at the lower end of its 5.5-6.5% goal for 2027.
“Growth in East Asia and the Pacific excluding China is forecast to improve to 4.9% in 2027-28 as geopolitical uncertainty dissipates, energy prices settle, and demand improves,” the World Bank said.
“Public investment is expected to recuperate in the Philippines, and Indonesia’s growth will be supported by state-led investment initiatives,” it added.
The Philippine economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 2.8% in the first quarter, the slowest pace since the pandemic, amid lingering uncertainty from last year’s corruption scandal and higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
“The World Bank’s outlook is plausible, but I would not treat it as the only reasonable scenario,” Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development Senior Research Fellow Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes told BusinessWorld.
He said the weak 2026 forecast reflects uncertain global conditions, elevated geopolitical and trade tensions, fiscal consolidation, weather-related disruptions, and food price shocks.
However, Mr. Peña-Reyes said economic expansion this year could be stronger if household consumption remains resilient, inflation continues to ease, infrastructure spending is sustained, investment reforms gain traction, and monetary policy becomes more accommodative.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will keep on growing below the targets set by the government? Could it be possible that an economic recession can still happen in the Philippines in 2028?
You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.
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