Tag: tariff

UA&P Sees Stronger Q3 Economic Growth for the Philippines Despite Trump Tariffs

UA&P Sees Stronger Q3 Economic Growth for the Philippines Despite Trump Tariffs

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As far as the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) is concerned, the economy of the Philippines will still grow stronger in the 3rd quarter by 5.8% despite the 19% Trump tariffs, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth may pick up in the third quarter despite higher US tariffs and “milder” typhoons, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said.

“Despite the Trump tariffs, milder typhoon season will help accelerate GDP expansion in Q3 to 5.8%, given a low base in 2024,” it said in its latest The Market Call released on Friday.

If realized, this would be faster than 5.2% in the third quarter of 2024 and 5.5% print in the second quarter. This forecast is also within the government’s revised 5.5% to 6.5% target this year.

“Consumer spending remains strong, aided by low inflation but limited by new US taxes on OFW (overseas Filipino Worker) remittances,” UA&P said.

Inflation cooled to a near six-year low of 0.9% in July as utilities and food costs continued to ease. This brought the seven-month average to 1.7%, slightly below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target band.

UA&P said government infrastructure spending may also regain momentum in the third quarter. This was after state spending slumped due to the 45-day election ban on public works spending from March 28 to May 12.

UA&P said residential construction will remain subdued due to elevated policy and interest rates.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 125 basis points (bps) since it began its easing cycle in August last year.  The policy rate now stands at 5.25%.

UA&P said the US dollar rate will “move either way” depending on rate cuts by the BSP and the US Federal Reserve.

“The peso-dollar rate has a fundamental depreciation bias although it will depend much on extent and timing of policy rate cuts by BSP and the Fed,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to grow stronger in the 3rd quarter even though the 19% Trump tariffs are already in effect? Do you see any signs of Philippine exports to America slowing down already?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025 Causes Disturbance on Philippines Information Technology and Business Process Sector

Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025 Causes Disturbance on Philippines Information Technology and Business Process Sector

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More than twenty years ago, I had a job at an American call center in Mandaue City, Cebu Province here in the Philippines. Back then, the call center industry of the nation was very young and yet quickly growing in terms of revenues, new foreign investments and new jobs. Today, the Philippines has a large information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) sector.

That being said, America today is quickly reforming under the leadership of President Donald Trump and already business ties and trade relationships have quickly been changing. In the United States Senate (US Senate), a bipartisan bill was formally filed – the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025.

Already, the proposal is already disturbing the information technology and business process management sector of the Philippines as revealed by the Manila Bulletin in its business news report.

To make things clear, I am not taking sides here. I am a citizen of the Philippines who worked for a few months in an American call center a very long time ago and at my age, I have no intention to return to call center work. I am already engaging in a new business that has nothing to do with call centers and business process management. As for how America’s leaders deal with call centers and business processing centers located in different parts of the world, that is their decision to make. It would be interesting, perhaps intriguing, to see how the Philippines IT-BPM sector will adjust if ever the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025 becomes a law someday.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) sector is bracing for the potential impact of a bill in the United States (US) Senate that seeks to end the practice of offshoring among American call centers.

The IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), the country’s leading IT-BPM group, said the industry is currently monitoring the progress of this proposed legislation.

“At this stage, we are continuing to track developments,” IBPAP told Manila Bulletin.

The proposed Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025, filed as a bipartisan bill in the US Senate, is aiming to curb offshoring or relocation of business operations from one country to another as it pertains to call center jobs.

In a statement by Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, he said the bill looks to reverse the continued decline of call center operations in America, driven by the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) offshoring.

Citing data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Gallego noted that the American call center industry will lose approximately 150,000 workers by 2033 if such practices persist.

“The Keep Call Centers in America Act would work to reverse this trend by limiting federal benefits to companies that ship call center jobs overseas,” said Gallego, who filed the bill with West Virginia Senator Jim Justice, a Republican.

Under the proposed bill, companies are required to notify the US Department of Labor (DOL) at least 120 days before relocating operations overseas or contracting out call center work to another entity that relocates abroad.

The DOL, meanwhile, will be mandated to maintain a public list of employers that have relocated operations. Companies will remain on the list for five years “unless they return an equal or greater number of call center jobs in the US.”

Call center firms on this list will be ineligible for new federal grants and guaranteed loans and will not be given preference when awarding contracts.

In a CBS News report, Gallego said that aside from supporting the return of domestic jobs, the bill will likewise address consumer concerns when it comes to “security around their private information.”

The bill, if enacted, will cover businesses with either 50 or more full-time employees, or 50 or more employees whose combined work hours total at least 1,500 per week. As such, the measure will impact large-scale call center operations such as those that are currently operating in the Philippines.

Based on a 2023 report by the Ateneo Policy Center, more than 200 US-based firms have invested approximately $7.8 billion to set up operations in the Philippines since 2003.

The proposed Keep Call Centers in America Act could not have come at a worse time, given that the Philippines’ services exports are slowing down.

In a report, Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. noted that services exports shrank by 4.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, citing data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).  This followed a 6.3-percent growth rate in the first quarter, which decelerated from a 13.2-percent expansion in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Neri said the services export sector is weighed down by a sharp drop in travel and signs of weakness in the IT-BPM sector.

To examine the details of the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025, click here and here.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you know a lot of people here in the Philippines who work in American call centers? Do you seriously believe that if ever the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025 becomes a law, it will someday compel American companies to close down its call centers here in the Philippines and create a wave of new job losses? Without American companies and clients, do you think the Philippines IT-BPM sector will shrink dramatically? Do you think the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025 will be passed by US Congress and get signed into law by US President Trump?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Nomura says America’s 19% tariff may cut Philippines GDP growth slightly

Nomura says America’s 19% tariff may cut Philippines GDP growth slightly

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In the middle of mixed reactions towards the United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine exports, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be cut by 0.4%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Recently, US President Donald Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., met in the White House which resulted in the new tariff.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine goods could cut the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.4 percentage point (ppt), Nomura Global Markets Research said.

In a report, Nomura said the US tariff of 19% on Philippine goods is “fairly high” and poses downside risks to growth.

“We estimate the direct effects could reduce our baseline GDP growth forecasts by a still-substantial 0.4 ppt in the Philippines.”

Nomura said this projection is “relatively substantial” compared to its baseline growth forecasts of 5.3% and 5.6% for this year and 2026, respectively.

“This is partly because we assigned 10% as the level where the reciprocal tariff rate could settle, on the assumption that the Philippines is a strong ally of the US and is not a third country for transshipments,” Nomura said.

“As it turns out, despite the visit to Washington by President Marcos and both sides reiterating the need for a strong partnership, the tariff was still set at 19%, which is even higher than the ‘Liberation Day’ level of 17%.”

Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. met with US President Donald J. Trump at the White House in Washington, DC. Mr. Trump announced a 19% tariff would be imposed on Philippine goods, which will take effect starting Aug. 1.

“The trade ‘deals’ therefore represent upside surprises in terms of tariff rates, especially for the Philippines,” Nomura said.

“As a result, if implemented and these tariff rates are sustained, these will likely further weigh on growth in both countries relative to our current baseline forecasts.”

The government expects GDP to grow by 5.5-6.5% this year, lower than its previous target of 6-8%.

“While these ballpark estimates make sense to us, uncertainty remains high and these are ‘only’ taking into account the direct effects on these ASEAN countries’ exports to the US,” Nomura said.

These estimates do not account for sectoral tariffs, such as in semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are currently exempted, it added.

“But as our US team highlights, the risk is these could be set higher, though some countries could be exempted, adding to the uncertainty. As mentioned above, the details of the trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines are still limited.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines is in a serious disadvantage with the American tariff of 19% imposed on the nation’s exports? Do you think the Philippine economy still has strong momentum to reach 6% GDP growth by the end of this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

What to watch on YouTube right now – Part 93

What to watch on YouTube right now – Part 93

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Welcome back my readers, YouTube viewers and all others who followed this series of articles focused on YouTube videos worth watching. Have you been searching for something fun or interesting to watch on YouTube? Do you feel bored right now and you crave for something to see on the world’s most popular online video destination?

I recommend you check out the following videos I found.

Ashleigh Burton reacts to Octopussy – As a young boy, I first saw the 1983 James Bond movie Octopussy on home video. Starring Roger Moore, the movie has Agent 007 on another wild adventure facing off with a Soviet Union general and the exiled Afghan prince. With a notable part of the film shot on location in India, Octopussy’s action and stunt scenes looked exotic and sometimes comical. That being said, I enjoyed watch Ashleigh Burton’s reaction video and it is easily the most entertaining Octopussy reaction video on YouTube to date. Watch her video now.

Trump crushes the European Union and wins big for America – After executing the greatest comeback ever, US President Donald Trump’s winning streak of achievements continued as he scored big for the Americans by crushing the corrupted European Union (EU). Not only did American win over the EU on trade, Trump slammed Europe’s approach on migration as well as their renewable energy policies in front of the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Watch the two videos below and pay close attention to the details.

#3 Slope’s Game Room examines Theme Park – While I played a lot of video games and computer games through the decades, I never had the chance to play the 1994 game Theme Park. Developed by Bullfrog Productions, Theme Park is a simulation game in which players get to construct an amusement park and manage it with the goal of attracting visitors, making profit and expanding globally. The game was a major hit among critics and gamers. To find out more about who made Theme Park and what inspired the developers to make it, watch Slope Game Room’s in-depth video below.

Popcorn in Bed reacts to Jaws 2 – Recently the Canadian YouTuber Popcorn in Bed posted her reaction video of Jaws 2. A sequel to Steven Spielberg’s classic Jaws, the 1978 movie had Roy Scheider as the star again but he and director Jeannot Szwarc had conflicts behind the scenes and the production was troublesome. Having seen all Jaws movies, I can say that Jaws 2 had a lot of creative elements common with slasher horror movies. That being said, the way this movie drew reactions from Popcorn in Bed is a must-see.

Japan’s authorities react to troublesome foreigners and tourists from overseas – There is no denying that Japan is a great place to visit and explore. As a young man, I toured Japan twice (in 1996 and 1997) and I can say that the travel experience is tremendous. In today’s age of social media and people having their own smartphones, Japan continues to attract even more visitors from around the world and the sad thing is that there are troublesome or disrespectful foreigners who arrived as well. Now the authorities are making adjustments in reaction. Watch and learn from the video of Asian Route below. Also, remember to respect the rules and the locals in every country you visit.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Department of Finance (DOF) says 6% economic growth is quite difficult to achieve this year

Department of Finance (DOF) says 6% economic growth is quite difficult to achieve this year

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The uncertainty about this year’s economic growth for the Philippines has gotten stronger as the Department of Finance (DOF) admitted that achieving 6% growth is quite difficult, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The DOF pointed to external shocks that are affecting the national economy.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

While the Philippine economy has already been recovering from its deep recession during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, hitting its growth potential of six percent would be challenging given the global uncertainties spilling over domestically, according to the Department of Finance (DOF).

“We do think that the potential of the Philippines is at the minimum six-percent growth. But of course, it’s quite difficult, especially knowing some of the challenges that we’re seeing,” DOF Undersecretary and Chief Economist Domini Velasquez told reporters during the Philippine thrift banks’ annual convention on Tuesday, July 15.

Just before the initial three-month pause on reciprocal tariffs ended on July 9, United States (US) President Donald Trump had stretched it to Aug. 1, but hiked the rates for Philippine exports to 20 percent from 17 percent previously, repeatedly citing the “significant and persistent trade deficit” that the trade giant has with its former colony.

Velasquez noted that the tariff hike was among the uncertainties that the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) had considered in downscaling its growth target for the year, through 2028.

Last month, the economic team slashed its 2025 GDP growth target to between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent from six- to 6.5-percent previously. Cited as factors were heightened external uncertainties, especially the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the imposition of US tariffs.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto told reporters during an informal press chat on Wednesday, July 16, that he expects the economy to accelerate “significantly” in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter.

“In effect, the target is still six percent for the year,” Recto noted, taking off from the recently revised growth goal. “Realistically, it’s probably around 5.7 percent or 5.8 percent for the year. It depends, because there’s a lot of uncertainty—uncertainty with trade policy.”

“But I think the second quarter will definitely be better than the first,” Recto said, noting that the improvement will be driven by both government and household consumption.

The DBCC had also narrowed the growth target range for 2026 to 2028 to six to seven percent, from the previously more ambitious six  to eight percent.

“We did recognize those [tariffs]. When we dialed down on our growth target in 2025, it’s really because of the external factors that we were seeing,” Velasquez said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national economy is not strong enough to achieve 6% GDP growth by the end of this year? What do you think the national government should do to strengthen economic growth and make the Philippines more attractive to foreign investors? Do you think the Philippines still has a chance to convince America to lower its planned tariff on Philippine-made goods?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

America sets 19% tariff on Philippine goods after crucial Trump-Marcos meeting

America sets 19% tariff on Philippine goods after crucial Trump-Marcos meeting

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Months after initial communications were made (click here and here), Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. finally met with US President Donald Trump in the White House and this ultimately resulted in a 19% tariff on Philippine goods by America, according to two related news articles (click here and here) by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

For the newcomers reading this, America initially announced a 17% tariff on products from the Philippines last April and it was recently revised to 20% which surprised many here in the Philippines. Now that the American tariff for Philippine goods has been settled at 19%, President Marcos called the reduction significant. It should be noted that America generated more than $100 billion in new revenue from tariffs under Trump this year.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the first PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine exports to the United States (US) will now be subject to a 19 percent tariff, down from the 20 percent Washington initially planned to impose, US President Donald Trump announced following what he called a “beautiful visit” by President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. at the White House.

Part of the new deal includes granting zero tariffs for American products bound for the Philippines.

Philippine President Marcos with US President Trump at the White House. (photo source – the White House)

“It was a beautiful visit, and we concluded our Trade Deal, whereby The Philippines is going OPEN MARKET with the United States, and ZERO Tariffs. The Philippines will pay a 19% Tariff,” Trump posted on his Truth Social account early Wednesday (Manila time).

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt tweet of President Trump’s TRUTH Social post about the meeting with President Marcos and new trade deal.

He also described Marcos as a “very good and tough negotiator.”

Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the US comprised the highest export value amounting to USD1.115 billion, or 15.3 percent of the country’s total exports in May this year.

Posted below is an excerpt from the other PNA news article related to Marcos’ description of the 1% reduction of tariff by America as well as his clarification about Philippines’ zero tariff approach on certain American products coming to the country. Some parts in boldface…

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. defended the Philippines’ new trade arrangement with the United States (US), saying the reduced 19 percent tariff on Philippine exports—down from the proposed 20 percent—is a “significant achievement,” amid questions over its fairness.

“One percent might seem like a very small concession. However, when you put it in real terms, it is a significant achievement,” Marcos said in a press briefing following his meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday (Manila time).

The President acknowledged that the new deal also opens key Philippine markets to American products—particularly vehicles, agricultural goods, and pharmaceuticals—but said the arrangement will benefit Filipinos through lower prices and stronger bilateral trade.

“We will open that market and no longer charge tariffs on that… para makamura naman ‘yung mga – maging mas mura ‘yung gamot natin (so we can lower the cost of medicines),” he said.

Marcos said while the 19 percent tariff on Philippine goods is still substantial, it reflects a step forward in trade engagement with Washington D.C. and lays the groundwork for future negotiations.

For transparency, posted below is the official video from the White House YouTube channel.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you realize that there is a lot more about US and Philippines relations that go beyond the newly agreed trade agreement? Do you think America’s 19% tariff on exports from the Philippines will add challenged to the Philippine economy? What do you think about the Trump-Marcos meeting? Did you pay attention to the planned Subic Bay ammunition manufacturing plant that was mentioned? If you are based in the Philippines, do you look forward to importing American-made vehicles, agricultural products and pharmaceutical products once they enter the country without any tariffs imposed on them? Do you think the newest exchange between Trump and Marcos will make Communist China concerned or worried?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

America sets 20% tariff on Philippine goods and will take effect on August 1, 2025

America sets 20% tariff on Philippine goods and will take effect on August 1, 2025

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Starting August 1, 2025, the United States of America (USA) will impose a 20% tariff on all and any Philippine-made products coming into their shores as stated in US President Donald Trump’s official letter to President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. In response, the Philippines wants to renegotiate with America while there is still time.

For the newcomers reading this, America previously set a 17% tariff on the Philippines when Trump unveiled last April the many tariff rates on many nations. The Philippines was confident about the negotiations they had with their American counterparts.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine government is looking to renegotiate the 20 percent tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Philippine goods, according to Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez.

In a letter dated July 9 addressed to President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., US President Donald Trump announced that beginning Aug. 1, 2025, the US will raise tariffs on Philippine goods to 20 percent—up from the previously announced 17 percent rate.

In a text message to the Philippine News Agency on Thursday morning, Romualdez said Manila would formally request a review of the tariff hike from Washington D.C.

Trump, in his letter, recognized the Philippine-US trade relations and said the latter has “agreed to continue working with the Philippines, despite having a significant trade deficit.”

“Starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge the Philippines a Tariff of only 20 percent on any and all Philippine products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs,” it read.

Trump said there would be “no tariff if the Philippines, or companies within” the country decide to build or manufacture products within the US.

The US, he added, is also open to “reconsider an adjustment” if the country opens its “closed trading markets to the United States,” and eliminates its “tariff, and non-tariff policies and trade barriers.”

“These tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your country,” he said.

Trump, meanwhile, warned Manila against reciprocating the move with a tariff increase.

“If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 20 percent that we charge,” he said.

For transparency, posted below is the 2-page letter of Trump to Marcos regarding tariffs.

The first page.
The 2nd page.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines fell short in its recent negotiations with the United States which resulted in a higher tariff at 20%? Do you think the economic managers of the Philippines can convince America to delay, if not lower, the declared tariff? Do you think a 20% tariff rate by America will hurt the economy of the Philippines this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Philippines Lowers Economic Growth Target Amid Global Uncertainty

Philippines Lowers Economic Growth Target Amid Global Uncertainty

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As there are more signs of weakness and uncertainty, the economic managers of the Philippines officially lowered their economic growth target this year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Economic managers on Thursday revised the economic growth target for this year amid mounting global uncertainties.

At a briefing after the 191st Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) meeting, Budget Secretary and DBCC Chair Amenah Pangandaman said the economic growth assumption for 2025 was revised downward to 5.5 to 6.5 percent from the previous 6 to 8 percent.

For 2026 to 2028, the Philippine economy is projected to expand by 6 to 7 percent, reflecting a more cautious and resilient economic outlook amid global headwinds.

“The revisions take into account heightened global uncertainties, such as the unforeseen escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the imposition of U.S. tariffs,” Pangandaman said.

She said that despite these challenges, the DBCC remains “vigilant and ready to deploy timely and targeted measures” to mitigate their potential impact on the Philippine economy.

The budget chief said the country continues to be one of the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN driven by robust domestic demand.

To maintain this momentum, she highlighted the administration’s focus on structural reforms, including the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act and the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Code, both designed to enhance the country’s trade and investment competitiveness.

Pangandaman said the government will also pursue the approval and implementation of other reforms recently ratified by Congress, such as the Liberalizing the Lease of Private Lands by Foreign Investors Act, Enhanced Fiscal Regime for Large-Scale Metallic Mining Act, Accelerated and Reformed Right-of-Way (ARROW) Act, and Konektadong Pinoy Act.

The DBCC also revisited the medium-term macroeconomic assumptions to take into consideration recent global and domestic developments.

The inflation assumption for this year was cut to 2 to 3 percent from the previous 2 to 4 percent. For 2026 to 2028, the inflation assumption was retained at 2 to 4 percent.

For 2025 to 2028, crude oil price assumptions were reduced to USD60 to USD70 per barrel from USD60 to 80 per barrel, despite escalating geopolitical tensions.

The foreign exchange rate is assumed to remain stable, averaging at PHP56 to PHP58 per US dollar from 2025 through 2028, supported by lower domestic inflation.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines is lacking momentum to achieve 6% growth this year? Do you think that inflation and unemployment will eventually rise before the year ends? Are you convinced that foreign investors are staying away from the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Philippines manufacturing activity slowed down in May 2025

Philippines manufacturing activity slowed down in May 2025

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In what could be a possible sign of economic slowdown in the Philippines, manufacturing activity for the month of May this year slowed down as demand from foreign markets weakened, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

GROWTH in Philippine manufacturing activity slowed in May due to declining output and weaker demand from foreign markets amid global trade tensions.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures the country’s monthly factory performance, settled at 50.1, slipping from 53 in April. This was the lowest index since the 49.4 contraction in March.

A PMI reading above 50 denotes better operating conditions month on month, while a reading below 50 shows the opposite.

“The promising growth observed at the beginning of the second quarter signaled a notable cooling in May,” Maryam Baluch, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a report on Monday. “While new orders continued to increase, they did so at a slower pace, overshadowed by contractions in other areas.”

S&P Global data on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) showed that only the Philippines expanded in May, while Vietnam (49.8), Myanmar (47.6) and Indonesia (47.4) all declined.

In its report, S&P Global said output declined in May, the second contraction in the past three months.

“Overall, the downturn was marginal, but companies noted softer demand conditions weighed on production,” it said.

Despite continuing to signal a rise in new sales, the rate of expansion in new orders was slight and weaker than in April, it added. This was reflected in the softer rate of increase in input buying activity.

“The situation was further exacerbated by a deteriorating demand from foreign markets, with May witnessing a sharper drop in new export orders,” Ms. Baluch said. “As global trade tensions escalate, the outlook for overseas demand appears increasingly precarious,” US President Donald J. Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs in April for 90 days but continues to apply a 10% baseline tariff rate for most trading partners.

Ms. Baluch said the drop in production requirements was accompanied by a fresh decline in employment and the inventories of both purchases and finished goods.

S&P said employment numbers declined for the first time in four months.

The pace of job shedding was marginal, but the strongest in 11 months, which factories attributed to voluntary resignations and the nonreplacement of those roles.

S&P also cited the limited manpower for a renewed buildup of backlogs across Filipino producers.

“On a brighter note, inflationary pressures remain modest and historically subdued, which could play an important role in supporting demand moving forward,” she said.

However, cost burdens and output charges rose to the highest since January.

“The stability of price pressures may also provide a necessary buffer against the challenges posed by a cooldown in new orders and external market uncertainties,” she added.

S&P Global said manufacturers expect new orders to continue to rise, supported by confidence in the year-ahead outlook for production, but the degree of optimism was the third weakest in the series’ history.

Analysts also said trade tensions and softer demand weighing down the country’s manufacturing activity in May.

The anticipation for higher tariffs likely caused subdued exports, said Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc.

“The persistent trade tensions continue to weigh on global trade, causing exports to drop as higher tariffs may be imposed,” he said in a Viber message.

Philippine exports in the first four months rose 9.5% to $26.87 billion, according to the local statistics agency.

Mr. Erece said domestic demand slowed as the election-spending season ended. Stronger manufacturing activity is expected later this year, as local authorities continue trade talks with the US Trade Representative, he added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines’ manufacturing sector will rebound this month?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

World Bank says Philippines economic growth will be below 6% per year until 2031

World Bank says Philippines economic growth will be below 6% per year until 2031

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By pointing to several economic factors, the World Bank stated that it expects the economy of the Philippines to grow less than 6% per year until the year 2031, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines’ annual economic growth is expected by the World Bank Group (WBG) to remain below six percent this year until 2031.

Its newest country partnership framework (CPF) for the Philippines, covering fiscal years (FYs) 2026 to 2031, showed that the WBG forecasts Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.3 percent for this year, 5.4 percent for next year, and 5.5 percent for 2027—all below the more ambitious six- to eight-percent target of the Marcos Jr. administration for the second half of its term.

“The average GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2027 is expected at 5.4 percent. Risks are mostly tilted downside and include potential retaliation by main global players that may affect global growth further, probably hitting domestic growth,” the WBG said, referring to the lingering world trade uncertainty caused by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff spree.

“Increased uncertainty could trigger instability in financial markets and capital flight,” it added.

On the flipside, “the Philippines may benefit from improved margins of preference for key export products, and from lower global commodity prices (tied to lower global growth), and absent any external pressures, the prospect of continued monetary policy rate normalization” in the next three years, the WBG said.

This year, its projected 5.3-percent GDP growth rate—poised to be the slowest pace of expansion since the Philippine economy gradually reopened from the most stringent Covid-19 restrictions—was attributed by the WBG to “the direct impacts of the higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainty on demand for exports, the effects of increased global policy uncertainty on investment demand, and the indirect effects on export and investment demand through lower global growth.”

But on the upside, “these negative effects are dampened as the Philippines is mostly integrated in services rather than merchandise value chains (that have been most affected by trade policy barriers), and as public investment and private investment in non-tradables is expected to remain robust,” the WBG added.

Philippine GDP growth is seen picking up gradually to 5.7 percent in 2028, 5.8 percent both in 2029 and 2030, and 5.9 percent in 2031.

The WBG forecasts headline inflation to be in the range of three to 3.2 percent from 2025 to 2031—within the targeted two- to four-percent annual consumer price increases deemed conducive to economic growth.

As the Marcos Jr. administration embarks on fiscal consolidation to narrow the yawning budget deficit and lower the share of public debt to the economy following massive borrowings at the height of the pandemic, the WBG projected the fiscal deficit narrowing gradually from 5.7 percent of GDP in 2024 to 5.4 percent in 2025, 4.9 percent in 2026, 4.4 percent in 2027, 4.1 percent in 2028, 3.9 percent in 2029, 3.7 percent in 2030, and 3.6 percent in 2031.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines currently does not have enough strength to exceed the crucial 6% mark for annual growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco