tariff – Page 2 – Author Carlo Carrasco

World Bank Flags Slowing Philippine Economy As Flood Control Scandal Controversy And Softening Financial Market Go On

October 25, 2025October 16, 2025carlocarrasco

The embarrassment of the ongoing flood control corruption scandals and the slowing economy of the Philippines caught the attention of the World Bank (WB) as it released a detailed assessment of the nation, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The World Bank (WB) has flagged a slowing Philippine economy as investor sentiment weakens, financial markets soften, and manufacturing and exports falter—even as joblessness steadies and inflation stays below target.

“There are signs that economic activity may be decelerating” in the country, the WB said in its Philippines Monthly Economic Developments report for September 2025, published on Oct. 14.

The WB highlighted that investor sentiment toward domestic financial assets weakened in September, with the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) falling 0.9 percent between August and Sept. 18—contrasting with the rising stock markets of regional peers since July.

The WB noted that while interest rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)—which lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75 percent last Oct. 9—and the United States (US) Federal Reserve supported early September gains, negative market developments later limited buying activity in the domestic stock market.

Among these “unfavorable market updates” were “governance issues in flood control projects, an uptrend in inflation and unemployment, and lower foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows,” the report said.

“Amid these developments, foreign investors became net sellers of local shares. This contributed to the slight weakening of the Philippine peso against the US dollar,” the report noted.

“In real effective terms, the Philippine peso depreciated in August against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners” and sustained a slight depreciation last month, it added.

The WB also noted that the Philippines’ merchandise export growth fell to an eight-month low in August, with exports rising just 4.6 percent year-on-year as shipments to the US declined following the introduction of higher tariffs.

This came even as export growth was “driven by sustained demand for semiconductors and electronic data processing equipment, primarily from Hong Kong and Japan,” the report added.

Meanwhile, the WB emphasized that merchandise import values declined by 4.9 percent year-on-year last August, mainly due to lower global prices for coal and petroleum products. The Philippines is a net oil importer. The report also noted that imports of raw materials and intermediate goods fell after robust growth in prior months.

Imports of motor vehicles, however, rose—driven by strong consumer demand. The WB noted that, in all, the goods trade deficit narrowed from $4.4 billion in July to $3.5 billion in August.

The WB also highlighted that high-frequency data indicated a slowdown in manufacturing activity, with output rising just 1.4 percent year-on-year in August, largely supported by growth in the food products sector.

However, the WB said that production of electrical equipment as well as computer, electronic, and optical products decelerated, reflecting the slowdown in export growth.

The WB also noted that the country’s S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for September dropped to 49.9, falling below the neutral threshold for the first time in six months and indicating a contraction in activity.

“Despite modest gains in external demand, output and new orders from the domestic market declined, and business confidence, while positive, remained subdued,” the WB added.

The WB further highlighted that labor market conditions steadied as the effects of weather-related disruptions eased, noting that the unemployment rate held steady year-on-year at 3.9 percent in August, rebounding from a temporary rise in July caused by adverse weather that affected agriculture and fisheries.

The WB said that employment in wholesale and retail trade fell year-on-year, although the reasons behind the decline remain unclear and require careful monitoring.

“The government expects further improvement in labor market conditions as weather-sensitive sectors continue to recover in the near term,” the WB added.

The WB stressed that inflation has increased moderately in recent months but remains below the central bank’s target, with headline inflation reaching a six-month high of 1.7 percent in September due to the delayed effects of weather-related supply disruptions, which pushed up food prices, especially for vegetables and oils.

“Despite this, average inflation remains below the two- to four-percent inflation band set by the BSP and is partly limited by sustained rice disinflation,” the WB said.

Year-on-year drops in rice prices helped ease inflationary pressures on the poorest 30 percent of households, with their consumer price index (CPI) falling by 0.2 percent in September, the report added.

“Favorable inflation dynamics and moderating domestic demand” supported the BSP’s monetary easing, the WB said, adding that the central bank has “space for a more accommodative policy stance in the context of a weaker outlook for economic growth.”

The WB stated that external imbalances widened in the first half of 2025, though foreign reserves remained sufficient, noting that the current account deficit grew to 3.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—up 0.3 percentage point (ppt) year-on-year—driven by strong domestic demand that boosted goods imports.

“Higher spending by Filipino tourists abroad and lower inbound tourism receipts also contributed to a decline in net receipts from services trade,” it added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? What do you think the national government should do to improve the nation’s economic conditions? Do you agree with what the WB reported about the Philippines? If you have been managing a business for at least one year, has 2025 been a rough business year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Trade Chief Points To Trump Tariffs As Country Braces For Dumping Of Products From Asian Neighbors

October 13, 2025October 12, 2025carlocarrasco

Here we go again with the perceived challenges related to the tariffs of Trump-led America. This time around the secretary of the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) pointed to the Trump tariffs which she said raised the risk of products from Asian neighbors getting dumped into the Philippines and potentially harm local industries, according to news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

For the newcomers reading this, the Trump administration had set a series of tariff rates for different nations in Asia. American tariff on Philippines-made products was set at 19% after the big meeting between US President Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr.

It is a known fact that many nations in Asia export their products to the United States but with the new tariffs in effect and the fact that the Philippines has a population of more than one hundred million people, the latter is anticipated to become the dumping ground of Asian products. This development is happening just as the economy of the Philippines will grow by less than 6% this year (click here, here and here). Recently, the US State Department published a report about pervasive corruption being a barrier to investment in the Philippines.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The recent increase in the United States’ tariff rates heightened the risk of Asian goods being dumped into the Philippine market, raising the need for more stringent measures to protect local industries, Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Secretary Cristina Roque said Wednesday.

Roque, in an interview on the sidelines of the Federation of Philippine Industries Inc. Business Summit in Makati City, said they expect increased entry of steel, cement, and garments, among others.

She traced this to the attractiveness of the Philippines as a market, given the country’s large population of over 100 million. She said DTI will work closely with the Bureau of Customs (BOC) to ensure that only registered and properly taxed goods enter the country.

The DTI will also coordinate with local industries to prevent the continued spread of unregistered products in the market.

On Tuesday, personnel from DTI’s Fair Trade Enforcement Bureau seized around PHP2 million worth of substandard construction materials from 24 retailers in Central Luzon as it strengthened its drive against uncertified and unsafe products in the market.

“We need to protect the manufacturing industry of the Philippines. So us, being in government, and us making sure we protect the jobs of the people,” she said.

Roque also noted that although investments continue to pour in, the volume is not what they had expected, thus, the need to boost local industries.

“So, we try to help them resolve whatever issues they have. And then we also at least help them strengthen or level up their businesses,” she explained.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think it is only a matter of time before a massive amount of Asian products (originally made for export to America) will arrive in the markets of the Philippines very soon? Did you notice any unregistered or sub-par quality products from overseas already being sold locally? What do you think can the DTI do to protect the local industries and livelihood of many Filipinos?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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IMF Sees Philippine Economy Growing 5.4% This Year And 5.7% Next Year

October 10, 2025October 3, 2025carlocarrasco

By citing factors like weaker-than-expected growth in the first half, the American tariffs on Philippine goods and geopolitical conflicts, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees the economy Philippines growing only 5.4% this year and 5.7% next year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH is expected to moderate this year and in 2026 amid ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions across the globe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

The IMF trimmed its Philippine growth forecast to 5.4% for this year, slightly lower than its 5.5% projection in July.

If realized, gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be at the low end of the National Government’s 5.5-6.5% target band this year.

For 2026, the IMF also cut its growth forecast to 5.7% from 5.9% previously. However, this is below the government’s 6-7% target for next year.

The IMF said the economy is expected to remain resilient, but downside risks warrant “close attention.”

“Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside. The main external risks stem from prolonged global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections,” IMF Mission Head Elif Arbatli Saxegaard said at a briefing after the conclusion of the 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Philippines on Wednesday.

“On the domestic front, more frequent and intense climate shocks would cause notable macroeconomic losses. On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms would support investor confidence and the fiscal multiplier and raise potential growth. Risks around inflation are broadly balanced.”

Ms. Saxegaard said the growth outlook was revised to reflect the weaker-than-expected growth in the first half. For the first half, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Ms. Saxegaard said growth will be affected by the higher tariffs imposed by the US on Philippine goods. The US began imposing a 19% tariff on goods from the Philippines on Aug. 7

“It will weigh on exports and investment,” she said.

She also noted growth will be “supported by monetary easing and recent legislative measures to promote private investment.”

Meanwhile, the IMF sees inflation averaging 1.6% this year, before picking up to 2.6% next year.

“The pickup in inflation is expected to be driven by (the) food and transport crisis,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “And that reflects essentially the decline in negative base effects that have been dragging down inflation this year. So, as those base effects recede, we expect a pickup.”

She said core inflation is expected to “remain muted” at 2.5% in 2026.

“The BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) has room for a slightly more accommodative stance to help bring inflation back to the target faster and reduce economic slack amid elevated downside risks to growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “Policy will need to remain data dependent amidst prevailing uncertainties around the output gap and the neutral rate, and two-sided risks to inflation.”

On Aug. 28, the central bank slashed its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) for a third consecutive time to 5%. It has cut the benchmark by a total of 150 bps since August last year.

CORRUPTION – Asked about recent corruption scandals involving some government projects, Ms. Saxegaard said the IMF will continue to monitor the developments.

“It’s not yet clear whether and how these allegations will impact investor and private sector confidence, as well as their perceptions and behavior,” she said.

The IMF welcomed recent reforms to reduce infrastructure gaps and promote foreign direct investment, but effective implementation is key.

“Enhancing fiscal governance and the rule of law and reducing corruption vulnerabilities are critical for inclusive and sustainable growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said.

The IMF urged the Philippine government to continue implementing gradual fiscal consolidation “to replenish fiscal buffers and support external balance.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the IMF’s prediction of weaker economic growth will turn out true? Do you think the flood control projects scandal and government corruption investigation are turning away foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Asian Development Bank Sees Philippine Economy Growing Less Than 6% This Year

October 9, 2025September 30, 2025carlocarrasco

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicted that the economy of the Philippines will achieve growth of less than 6% this year, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA News report. Some parts in boldface…

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its economic growth outlook for the Philippines this year on the back of sustained domestic demand despite global trade uncertainties.

In the September 2025 edition of its flagship Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the ADB said it forecasts the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at 5.6% for 2025, maintained from the ADO July edition’s outlook.

The multilateral lender said that “robust domestic demand amid subdued inflation will support Philippine economic growth this year and the next.”

“The Philippines’ growth outlook remains resilient amid a global environment of shifting trade and investment policies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties,” said ADB country director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries.

“Though these uncertainties pose increased risk, we see strong domestic demand anchoring growth, with sustained investments and an accommodative monetary policy supporting the economy’s expansion,” said Jeffries.

For 2026, the ADB said it sees the Philippine economy to grow at 5.7% — the same level as the country’s actual growth rate in 2024.

Nonetheless, the bank said the country is expected to remain a bright spot in Southeast Asia, “with the second highest GDP expansion in the region.”

Moreover, the ADB said it forecasts inflation to ease at 1.8% this year, before rising to 3% in 2026 to return to the government’s target range of 2% to 4%. The latest 2025 inflation forecast is lower from July’s 2.2%.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the economy of the Philippine does not have any more momentum to grow at least 6% this year? Are you concerned that the flood control projects scandal and government corruption here in the Philippines will turn away foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Weaker Business Sentiment In The Philippines

October 7, 2025September 30, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) conduct its own survey which revealed that business sentiment in the Philippines became less optimistic during the 3^rd quarter, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine businesses turned less optimistic about the economy in the third quarter amid bad weather and sluggish demand during “ghost month,” a survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Based on its latest Business Expectations Survey, the overall confidence index (CI) for businesses fell to 23.2% in the third quarter, down from the 28.8% in the second quarter and the 32.9% in the same quarter last year.

A positive CI indicates that more respondents are optimistic than pessimistic. However, this was the lowest CI seen since the 23.9% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. The business confidence index has been on a decline for three consecutive quarters.

“Philippine businesses were less optimistic about the economy in the third quarter of the year,” the BSP said in a statement. “Their dampened confidence was primarily attributed to the slack in demand during the ‘ghost month’ and the onset of the rainy and typhoon season.”

This year, “ghost month,” the seventh month in the Chinese lunar calendar, ran from Aug. 23 to Sept. 21. Some investors avoid making big investments or decisions during this period.

The country also experienced heavy rains and flooding brought by several tropical storms and the southwest monsoon from late July to early August.

“Global headwinds, such as higher US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and weaker foreign demand, also weighed on business confidence,” the BSP said. The US began imposing a 19% tariff on goods from the Philippines on Aug. 7.

At the same time, business confidence for the fourth quarter improved to 49.5% from 39.3% previously, as a surge in consumer spending is usually seen ahead of the holidays. The overall business outlook for the next 12 months eased to 48.1% from 51% the previous quarter.

“Despite the lower year-ahead CI, it remained positive, reflecting businesses’ continued optimism about near-term economic prospects,” the BSP said.

Businesses surveyed also see the peso appreciating against the US dollar in the fourth quarter and over the next 12 months but expect inflation to accelerate further.

“Firms also expect inflation over the next 12 months to remain within the National Government’s target range, indicating firmly anchored business inflation expectations. Within-target inflation supports investments and job creation,” the BSP said.

Businesses expect inflation to have settled at 2.1% in the third quarter, and picking up to 2.3% next quarter, and 2.4% in the next 12 months.

The central bank surveyed 1,523 firms nationwide, 580 of which are in the National Capital Region (NCR) and 943 in areas outside NCR, from July 4 to Aug. 17.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will somehow slow down in the 4^th quarter?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Moody’s Predicts 5.7% Growth for Philippine Economy in 2025

September 7, 2025September 1, 2025carlocarrasco

Based on its latest economy research, Moody’s Ratings announced that the economy of the Philippines will achieve 5.7% growth for the year 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY is on track to grow by 5.7% this year on the back of strong household spending, steady remittances and sustained public investments, Moody’s Ratings said.

“We expect the Philippines to maintain strong economic growth relative to regional and rating peers,” Moody’s said after the completion of a periodic review of Philippines’ credit rating.

“Growth will be supported by resilient household consumption, stable remittance inflows from overseas workers, and public investment spending, and ongoing structural reforms,” it said in a report.

Moody’s forecast is within the government’s revised 5.5-6.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for this year.

In the second quarter, GDP expanded by an annual 5.5%, up from 5.4% in the first quarter but slower than the 6.5% in the same period last year. For the first half, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Moody’s flagged downside risks to the outlook arising from the US tariff policies.

“Although the Philippines’ exposure to trade and global value chains is relatively low, uncertainty around US trade policy and tariffs presents some downside risks to domestic consumption and investment,” it said.

Since Aug. 7, the United States has been imposing a 19% tariff on Philippine goods entering the US. The US is one of the top destinations for Philippine-made goods.

Growth will also be supported by its fiscal consolidation efforts, but Moody’s flagged the government’s high debt stock and interest burden.

“Fiscal consolidation efforts are on track to meet the government’s revised Medium-Term Fiscal Framework of reducing the deficit to 4.3% of GDP by 2028, supported by the implementation of reform measures at enhancing revenue collection and spending efficiency,” Moody’s said.

While this will help temper Philippines’ debt burden, Moody’s said debt will remain “above pre-pandemic levels.”

As of June, the Philippines’ sovereign debt hit a fresh high of P17.27 trillion, up 11.5% from P15.48 trillion in the same month in 2024.

This brought the debt-to-GDP ratio to 63.1% at the end of June, the highest ratio since 2005. This is above the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold considered by multilateral lenders to be manageable for developing economies.

“Debt affordability, measured by the ratio of interest payments to revenue, is expected to weaken over the next two years, before gradually normalizing as global refinancing rates decline and economic growth returns to its long-term trend,” the debt watcher said.

“Despite rate cuts by the central bank since the second half of 2024, elevated government funding costs and a lag in the monetary policy transmission will keep interest burden higher,” it added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Moody’s Ratings of a 5.7% economic growth for 2025 will turn out true? What do you think it will take for the Philippine economy to reach 6% growth this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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UA&P Sees Stronger Q3 Economic Growth for the Philippines Despite Trump Tariffs

September 1, 2025August 25, 2025carlocarrasco

As far as the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) is concerned, the economy of the Philippines will still grow stronger in the 3^rd quarter by 5.8% despite the 19% Trump tariffs, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth may pick up in the third quarter despite higher US tariffs and “milder” typhoons, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said.

“Despite the Trump tariffs, milder typhoon season will help accelerate GDP expansion in Q3 to 5.8%, given a low base in 2024,” it said in its latest The Market Call released on Friday.

If realized, this would be faster than 5.2% in the third quarter of 2024 and 5.5% print in the second quarter. This forecast is also within the government’s revised 5.5% to 6.5% target this year.

“Consumer spending remains strong, aided by low inflation but limited by new US taxes on OFW (overseas Filipino Worker) remittances,” UA&P said.

Inflation cooled to a near six-year low of 0.9% in July as utilities and food costs continued to ease. This brought the seven-month average to 1.7%, slightly below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target band.

UA&P said government infrastructure spending may also regain momentum in the third quarter. This was after state spending slumped due to the 45-day election ban on public works spending from March 28 to May 12.

UA&P said residential construction will remain subdued due to elevated policy and interest rates.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 125 basis points (bps) since it began its easing cycle in August last year. The policy rate now stands at 5.25%.

UA&P said the US dollar rate will “move either way” depending on rate cuts by the BSP and the US Federal Reserve.

“The peso-dollar rate has a fundamental depreciation bias although it will depend much on extent and timing of policy rate cuts by BSP and the Fed,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to grow stronger in the 3^rd quarter even though the 19% Trump tariffs are already in effect? Do you see any signs of Philippine exports to America slowing down already?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025 Causes Disturbance on Philippines Information Technology and Business Process Sector

August 21, 2025August 12, 2025carlocarrasco

More than twenty years ago, I had a job at an American call center in Mandaue City, Cebu Province here in the Philippines. Back then, the call center industry of the nation was very young and yet quickly growing in terms of revenues, new foreign investments and new jobs. Today, the Philippines has a large information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) sector.

That being said, America today is quickly reforming under the leadership of President Donald Trump and already business ties and trade relationships have quickly been changing. In the United States Senate (US Senate), a bipartisan bill was formally filed – the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025.

Already, the proposal is already disturbing the information technology and business process management sector of the Philippines as revealed by the Manila Bulletin in its business news report.

To make things clear, I am not taking sides here. I am a citizen of the Philippines who worked for a few months in an American call center a very long time ago and at my age, I have no intention to return to call center work. I am already engaging in a new business that has nothing to do with call centers and business process management. As for how America’s leaders deal with call centers and business processing centers located in different parts of the world, that is their decision to make. It would be interesting, perhaps intriguing, to see how the Philippines IT-BPM sector will adjust if ever the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025 becomes a law someday.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) sector is bracing for the potential impact of a bill in the United States (US) Senate that seeks to end the practice of offshoring among American call centers.

The IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), the country’s leading IT-BPM group, said the industry is currently monitoring the progress of this proposed legislation.

“At this stage, we are continuing to track developments,” IBPAP told Manila Bulletin.

The proposed Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025, filed as a bipartisan bill in the US Senate, is aiming to curb offshoring or relocation of business operations from one country to another as it pertains to call center jobs.

In a statement by Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, he said the bill looks to reverse the continued decline of call center operations in America, driven by the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) offshoring.

Citing data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Gallego noted that the American call center industry will lose approximately 150,000 workers by 2033 if such practices persist.

“The Keep Call Centers in America Act would work to reverse this trend by limiting federal benefits to companies that ship call center jobs overseas,” said Gallego, who filed the bill with West Virginia Senator Jim Justice, a Republican.

Under the proposed bill, companies are required to notify the US Department of Labor (DOL) at least 120 days before relocating operations overseas or contracting out call center work to another entity that relocates abroad.

The DOL, meanwhile, will be mandated to maintain a public list of employers that have relocated operations. Companies will remain on the list for five years “unless they return an equal or greater number of call center jobs in the US.”

Call center firms on this list will be ineligible for new federal grants and guaranteed loans and will not be given preference when awarding contracts.

In a CBS News report, Gallego said that aside from supporting the return of domestic jobs, the bill will likewise address consumer concerns when it comes to “security around their private information.”

The bill, if enacted, will cover businesses with either 50 or more full-time employees, or 50 or more employees whose combined work hours total at least 1,500 per week. As such, the measure will impact large-scale call center operations such as those that are currently operating in the Philippines.

Based on a 2023 report by the Ateneo Policy Center, more than 200 US-based firms have invested approximately $7.8 billion to set up operations in the Philippines since 2003.

The proposed Keep Call Centers in America Act could not have come at a worse time, given that the Philippines’ services exports are slowing down.

In a report, Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. noted that services exports shrank by 4.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, citing data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). This followed a 6.3-percent growth rate in the first quarter, which decelerated from a 13.2-percent expansion in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Neri said the services export sector is weighed down by a sharp drop in travel and signs of weakness in the IT-BPM sector.

To examine the details of the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025, click here and here.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you know a lot of people here in the Philippines who work in American call centers? Do you seriously believe that if ever the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025 becomes a law, it will someday compel American companies to close down its call centers here in the Philippines and create a wave of new job losses? Without American companies and clients, do you think the Philippines IT-BPM sector will shrink dramatically? Do you think the Keep Call Centers in America Act of 2025 will be passed by US Congress and get signed into law by US President Trump?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nomura says America’s 19% tariff may cut Philippines GDP growth slightly

August 5, 2025July 28, 2025carlocarrasco

In the middle of mixed reactions towards the United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine exports, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be cut by 0.4%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Recently, US President Donald Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., met in the White House which resulted in the new tariff.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine goods could cut the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.4 percentage point (ppt), Nomura Global Markets Research said.

In a report, Nomura said the US tariff of 19% on Philippine goods is “fairly high” and poses downside risks to growth.

“We estimate the direct effects could reduce our baseline GDP growth forecasts by a still-substantial 0.4 ppt in the Philippines.”

Nomura said this projection is “relatively substantial” compared to its baseline growth forecasts of 5.3% and 5.6% for this year and 2026, respectively.

“This is partly because we assigned 10% as the level where the reciprocal tariff rate could settle, on the assumption that the Philippines is a strong ally of the US and is not a third country for transshipments,” Nomura said.

“As it turns out, despite the visit to Washington by President Marcos and both sides reiterating the need for a strong partnership, the tariff was still set at 19%, which is even higher than the ‘Liberation Day’ level of 17%.”

Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. met with US President Donald J. Trump at the White House in Washington, DC. Mr. Trump announced a 19% tariff would be imposed on Philippine goods, which will take effect starting Aug. 1.

“The trade ‘deals’ therefore represent upside surprises in terms of tariff rates, especially for the Philippines,” Nomura said.

“As a result, if implemented and these tariff rates are sustained, these will likely further weigh on growth in both countries relative to our current baseline forecasts.”

The government expects GDP to grow by 5.5-6.5% this year, lower than its previous target of 6-8%.

“While these ballpark estimates make sense to us, uncertainty remains high and these are ‘only’ taking into account the direct effects on these ASEAN countries’ exports to the US,” Nomura said.

These estimates do not account for sectoral tariffs, such as in semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are currently exempted, it added.

“But as our US team highlights, the risk is these could be set higher, though some countries could be exempted, adding to the uncertainty. As mentioned above, the details of the trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines are still limited.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines is in a serious disadvantage with the American tariff of 19% imposed on the nation’s exports? Do you think the Philippine economy still has strong momentum to reach 6% GDP growth by the end of this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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What to watch on YouTube right now – Part 93

August 4, 2025August 10, 2025carlocarrasco

Welcome back my readers, YouTube viewers and all others who followed this series of articles focused on YouTube videos worth watching. Have you been searching for something fun or interesting to watch on YouTube? Do you feel bored right now and you crave for something to see on the world’s most popular online video destination?

I recommend you check out the following videos I found.

#1 Ashleigh Burton reacts to Octopussy – As a young boy, I first saw the 1983 James Bond movie Octopussy on home video. Starring Roger Moore, the movie has Agent 007 on another wild adventure facing off with a Soviet Union general and the exiled Afghan prince. With a notable part of the film shot on location in India, Octopussy’s action and stunt scenes looked exotic and sometimes comical. That being said, I enjoyed watch Ashleigh Burton’s reaction video and it is easily the most entertaining Octopussy reaction video on YouTube to date. Watch her video now.

#2 Trump crushes the European Union and wins big for America – After executing the greatest comeback ever, US President Donald Trump’s winning streak of achievements continued as he scored big for the Americans by crushing the corrupted European Union (EU). Not only did American win over the EU on trade, Trump slammed Europe’s approach on migration as well as their renewable energy policies in front of the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Watch the two videos below and pay close attention to the details.

#3 Slope’s Game Room examines Theme Park – While I played a lot of video games and computer games through the decades, I never had the chance to play the 1994 game Theme Park. Developed by Bullfrog Productions, Theme Park is a simulation game in which players get to construct an amusement park and manage it with the goal of attracting visitors, making profit and expanding globally. The game was a major hit among critics and gamers. To find out more about who made Theme Park and what inspired the developers to make it, watch Slope Game Room’s in-depth video below.

#4 Popcorn in Bed reacts to Jaws 2 – Recently the Canadian YouTuber Popcorn in Bed posted her reaction video of Jaws 2. A sequel to Steven Spielberg’s classic Jaws, the 1978 movie had Roy Scheider as the star again but he and director Jeannot Szwarc had conflicts behind the scenes and the production was troublesome. Having seen all Jaws movies, I can say that Jaws 2 had a lot of creative elements common with slasher horror movies. That being said, the way this movie drew reactions from Popcorn in Bed is a must-see.

#5 Japan’s authorities react to troublesome foreigners and tourists from overseas – There is no denying that Japan is a great place to visit and explore. As a young man, I toured Japan twice (in 1996 and 1997) and I can say that the travel experience is tremendous. In today’s age of social media and people having their own smartphones, Japan continues to attract even more visitors from around the world and the sad thing is that there are troublesome or disrespectful foreigners who arrived as well. Now the authorities are making adjustments in reaction. Watch and learn from the video of Asian Route below. Also, remember to respect the rules and the locals in every country you visit.

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