ASEAN Summit – Author Carlo Carrasco

IMF Sees Sluggish Economic Growth for the Philippines this Year

October 20, 2026October 14, 2026carlocarrasco

In its latest economic assessment about the Philippines, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by only 3.4% this year and it will end up as one of the weaker economics of Southeast Asia, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES could post the fifth-slowest growth in Southeast Asia this year as weak investment and elevated inflation weigh on economic activity, while unemployment is expected to rise more than previously forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on Tuesday, the IMF expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 3.4% this year, slowing from the post-pandemic low of 4.4% recorded in 2025.

This puts the Philippines behind most economies in the Association of the Southeast Nations (ASEAN). Vietnam is projected to post the fastest growth at 8.4%, followed by Malaysia (5.2%), Indonesia (5.1%), Singapore (5%), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (4.5%), and Timor-Leste (4%).

The Philippines is only expected to outpace Cambodia (3%), Thailand (2.1%), Myanmar (2%), and Brunei (1.9%) this year.

Philippine economic growth remained muted this year as the Middle East war-driven energy crisis amplified the lingering effects of the flood control mess. In the second quarter, GDP grew by a new post-pandemic low of 2.3%, bringing the first-half expansion to 2.6%.

However, the IMF expects the Philippine economy to regain momentum next year, but still below its growth potential.

“The Philippines is projected to grow by 5.1% in 2027, recovering from 3.4% in 2026,” an IMF spokesperson said in an e-mail.

“This is a robust recovery — thanks to the still elevated Philippines growth potential—which allows (the) Philippines to maintain a relatively strong pace compared with many ASEAN peers next year. However, (it is) still relatively lower than its growth potential.”

If this holds, the Philippines will be the second fastest-growing economy in ASEAN in 2027, matching Indonesia and trailing only Vietnam with 7.5%.

MAIN RISKS – For the IMF, the Philippines could rebound once confidence picks up and the energy shock fades to gradually steer investments back to the country.

However, the Washington-based multilateral lender said the economy may remain below its potential until next year if the investment backdrop remains bleak and consumer prices stay elevated.

“The main risks are renewed delays in public infrastructure investment, persistently high energy and food prices, and weaker investor confidence,” the IMF spokesperson said. “Restoring public investment while strengthening governance will be key to making the recovery durable.”

Economic managers are targeting 3.5%-4.5% GDP growth this year and 5%-6% next year until 2030.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think there will be no economic breakthroughs for the Philippines this year? What do you think the Philippines should do to attract more new foreign investments and bring down the cost of energy? Do you think hosting the ASEAN Summit this year resulted in no real economic benefits for the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

AMRO Slashes 2026 Philippines GDP Growth Forecast

October 11, 2026October 6, 2026carlocarrasco

The Philippines, which is currently the host of the ASEAN Summit and is also one of the economic weaklings of Southeast Asia, is predicted by ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) to have slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE Philippine economy may continue to grow below its potential through 2027 as persistent energy shocks and weak investment weigh on activity, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.

In its latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, AMRO slashed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for this year to 3.3% from its July estimate of 4.1% and for 2027 to 4.6% from 5.5%.

Both forecasts are below the National Government’s growth targets of 3.5%-4.5% for 2026 and 5%-6% for 2027.

AMRO also trimmed its inflation forecast for this year to 5.6% from 5.7% previously but raised it for next year to 4.6% from 4.1% previously.

If realized, inflation will accelerate from the 1.7% clip last year and breach the central bank’s 3% target for two consecutive years.

At a press briefing on Monday, AMRO Chief Economist Dong He noted that the Middle East war-driven energy shock took a heavy toll on the Philippine economy, significantly slowing growth while fueling inflation.

“The Philippines is one of the economies that was hit harder by the energy shock,” he said. “As you recall, when the Middle East conflict took place, the government took very swift action and they introduced a national emergency. So that, I think, helped the country galvanize towards responses towards this big energy shock.”

“But of course, growth did slow down significantly and the inflation went up very quickly,” Mr. He added.

The AMRO chief economist also noted that the Philippine economy continues to be weighed down by an investment slump following the flood control corruption scandal which broke out last year.

“Now, the Philippines also have some domestic issues that they need to deal with,” Mr. He said. “Remember, there was this flood control-related issue and that significantly slowed down public investment.”

“So, the growth outlook is very dependent on how fast public investment and construction related activities can pick up,” he added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think there really is not much the government can do to boost economic growth this year? What is your opinion about the way the current economic managers of the Philippines are handling economic matters? Would you be surprised to see the Philippine economy fall into a recession in the first half of 2028?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Vietnam Attracts 522,000 Visitors from the Philippines During First 9 Months of 2026

October 10, 2026October 3, 2026carlocarrasco

The Philippines, which is currently the host of the ASEAN Summit and is also one of the economic weaklings of Southeast Asia, continues to grow tremendously as a tourism market for Vietnam as an estimated 522,000 Filipinos visited the said nation during the first nine months of 2026, according to a news report by VnExpress.

It should be noted that more than 480,000 Filipinos visited Vietnam for the entire year of 2025, and the Philippines is one of the fastest growing tourism markets for the Vietnam tourism industry this year along with Russia.

Historically speaking, the number of Philippine visitors welcomed by Vietnam was 49,266 in 2022, 153,168 in 2023, 265,947 in 2024 and 482,173 in 2025. At 522,000 as of the end of September, the number of Philippine visitors arriving in Vietnam could reach around 700,000 by the end of this year.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of VnExpress. Some parts in boldface…

Vietnam welcomed 17.7 million international visitors in the first nine months of 2026, up 14.5% year-on-year, bucking a decline in arrivals across several Southeast Asian destinations.

Mainland China remained Vietnam’s largest source market, with 3.95 million visitors, accounting for about 22.3% of the total. South Korea ranked second with approximately 3.05 million visitors, or 17.3%.

Russia ranked third with 1.1 million, followed by Taiwan (964,000) and the U.S. (746,000), according to the General Statistics Office.

The rest of the top 10 were Cambodia (688,000), Japan (674,000), India (670,000), the Philippines (522,000) and Australia (485,000).

In September, foreign visitors declined by 11.3% from August but rose by 16.5% year-on-year to 1.77 million.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Considering the strong interest of Filipinos to visit Vietnam, do you think it is possible for Vietnam to attract at least one million visitors from the Philippines next year if not this year? Do you think more Filipinos will realize the great value they could get by visiting Vietnam?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Economic Growth May Fall Behind Southeast Asian Neighbors

September 18, 2026September 11, 2026carlocarrasco

In the latest economic analysis of Bank of America (BofA), the Philippines may end up behind its Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) neighbors in terms of economic growth, and it could also mark another year of failing to hits is growth target, according to a report by BusinessWorld.

This is not surprising as the Philippines did not benefit economically from hosting the ASEAN Summit while it endured high inflation, weak gross domestic product (GDP) growth and lower foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows this year.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY may be among the slowest growing in Southeast Asia this year, as weak domestic demand keeps growth below its potential, Bank of America (BofA) said.

In a report dated Sept. 8, BofA Global Research kept its gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for the Philippines at 2.5% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.

For 2026, this projection puts the Philippines on par with Thailand as the slowest-growing economies among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members included in the report.

The two countries are expected to trail Vietnam (8.2%), Indonesia (5.3%), Malaysia (5.2%), and Singapore (5.1%) this year. If BofA’s forecasts hold, the Philippines will miss its growth target for five straight years. Economic managers are targeting 3.5%-4.5% GDP growth this year and 5%-6% in 2027-2030.

“In second half of 2026, we see GDP growing 2.5% with gentle gains in consumption and the bottoming of investment spending,” BofA China & Asia Economist Helen Qiao and Asia Economist Ting Him Ho said.

“Government spending may help mitigate the effects of the oil shock by aiming subsidies at consumer and transport groups most affected,” they added.

The Philippine economic growth slumped to a post-pandemic low of 2.3% in the second quarter, bringing first-half growth to 2.6%. Economic managers said that last year’s flood control corruption scandal continued to weigh on public construction and investments, while the Middle East war-driven energy shocks dampened household spending.

“Domestic demand grew only 0.9% in 2Q26 with net trade providing the lift to overall GDP,” the BofA economists also noted. “Within domestic demand, private consumption slowed, investments shrunk, and government spending was unable to fully cushion.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines will continue to be the economic weakling of ASEAN this year? Has the weak economic growth of the Philippines affected you in many ways?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Net Inflows Fall 18% in First Half of 2026

September 16, 2026September 10, 2026carlocarrasco

In what is clearly another sign that the Philippines is the economic weakling among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows into the country fell by 18% during the first half of this year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

Foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows into the Philippines contracted 18 percent in the first half of the year to ₱211.3 billion from ₱257.5 billion recorded in the same period last year, weighed down by higher borrowing costs and geopolitical friction.

Data released on Thursday, Sept. 10, by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that the cumulative six-month decline was driven by reduced intercompany borrowings and lower retained earnings, which undercut gains in net equity capital investments.

The central bank noted that FDI pulled back on intercompany lending to their domestic subsidiaries while retaining fewer earnings for local reinvestment.

Among individual components, net investments in debt instruments—which include intercompany borrowing between foreign investors and local affiliates—fell 26 percent in the first half to ₱128.8 billion from ₱173.8 billion a year earlier.

Reinvestment of earnings slipped 19 percent over the same period to ₱51.8 billion, compared with ₱64.4 billion in the previous year.

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said the cumulative decline in foreign inflows largely stemmed from the fallout of war in the Middle East.

Ricafort said the conflict fueled slower economic activity, sustained inflation, and elevated borrowing costs globally, ultimately raising the cost of direct investment.

Despite the broader downward momentum, net equity capital investments excluding reinvested earnings posted a sharp rebound, surging 59.4 percent to ₱30.6 billion from ₱19.2 billion a year ago. Total equity capital placements climbed to ₱45.3 billion, easily outpacing ₱14.8 billion in withdrawals.

Inflows during the first half originated mostly from Japan, the United States (US), and Singapore, with capital primarily directed toward manufacturing, financial and insurance activities, alongside real estate development.

On a monthly basis, FDI rebounded in June, expanding 35 percent year-on-year to ₱27.9 billion. Even with the bounce, June marked the second-lowest monthly total of the first semester.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think the government’s economic managers should do to attract more FDI? Do you think the Philippines will fall into a recession in 2027 or in the first half of 2028? Are you convinced that hosting the ASEAN Summit will not lead the Philippines to any economic improvements?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines 2026 Foreign Tourist Arrivals Reach 4.11 Million as of August, U.S. and South Korea Remain Top Markets

September 3, 2026September 2, 2026carlocarrasco

With the Peso performing terribly in the global currency market, weakening economic growth, high inflation and fears of an economic recession growing, 2026 has not been good for the Philippines. There is a bright spot in tourism, however, as the Philippines saw its 2026 foreign tourist arrivals reach 4.11 million in the January-August period and the United States and South Korea combined for more than 1.5 million tourist arrivals, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines has recorded 4.11 million foreign arrivals from January to August, higher by 3.7 percent compared to the same period last year, the Department of Tourism (DOT) said on Tuesday.

The United States posted the highest number of share at 818,318, followed by South Korea at 727,379, Japan at 350,191, China at 310,088, and Australia at 234,156.

Also making it in the top 10 source markets are Canada with 231,972, Taiwan with 154,957, the United Kingdom with 132,370, Singapore with 126,812, and India with 77,883.

Tourism Secretary Dita Angara-Mathay said the Philippines targets to surpass its 2025 arrival figures to reach between 6.4 million and 6.8 million, or at least 7 million, by the end of 2026.

To achieve this, she said the DOT is intensifying its branding and promotions to reach more tourists in its key source markets.

The DOT is also in active talks with airlines to open up and establish more chartered flights between the Philippines and secondary cities of Korea and China.

DOT Assistant Secretary Ren Sapitan said the agency is also set to sign a contract with a creative agency in November to broaden the country’s marketing efforts and make the Philippines more visible worldwide.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines will be able to exceed the 2025 foreign tourist arrivals number by the end of this year? Do you think the DOT is doing a good job to strengthen the Philippines’ attraction of foreign tourists? Considering the Top 10 markets of foreign tourists the Philippines attracted so far, are you convinced that the nation’s hosting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit did not create any positive tourism results?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Moody’s Analytics Cuts Philippines 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 3%

September 1, 2026August 27, 2026carlocarrasco

By citing key factors like weak consumption, Middle East oil shock and the collapse in private investment, Moody’s Analytics officially slashed its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines to 3%, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

MOODY’S ANALYTICS slashed its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines, amid weak consumption and a collapse in private investment.

In its latest Asia-Pacific Outlook report dated Aug. 24, the analytics firm said it now sees Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 3% this year, slower than its 4% projection in June.

“We lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3% from 4% in the June vintage after incorporating the second-quarter GDP result, which was far weaker than expected,” Moody’s Analytics Assistant Director and Economist Sarah Tan said in an e-mailed reply to questions.

The Philippine economy slumped to its worst post-pandemic growth of 2.3% in the April-to-June period, as investments and public construction continued to reel from last year’s flood control corruption scandal. Rising prices from the Middle East war-driven oil shock also strained household spending.

“The economy expanded by just 2.3% year on year, with private consumption showing notable weakness and private investment collapsing,” Ms. Tan noted. “This points to softer underlying domestic demand than we had previously anticipated.”

As of the first half of 2026, the country’s GDP growth averaged 2.6%, well below the government’s 3.5%-4.5% full-year target.

If Moody’s Analytics’ forecast holds true, the government will miss its growth target for a fourth year in a row. The economy would also further soften from last year’s post-pandemic low growth of 4.4%.

Economists earlier said that reaching even the bottom end of the government’s target entails a steep climb, as it means the economy must grow by at least 4.4% in the second half.

Moody’s Analytics sees growth recovering over the next two years to 4.6% in 2027 and 5.1% in 2028. The government wants full-year expansion to be between 5% and 6% from 2027 to 2030.

Meanwhile, GlobalSource Partners Country Analyst Diwa C. Guinigundo noted that the Philippines could face a more complicated path toward fiscal consolidation if growth remains below potential.

“Slower growth would make fiscal consolidation and debt reduction more difficult,” he said in a Viber message. “The issue is not simply that government revenues would grow more slowly; a weaker economy also means a smaller denominator for the debt-to-GDP ratio.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think 2026 will end up as a very disappointing year of economic growth for the Philippines? Do you think the economy of the Philippines could still fall into a recession in 2027 or in the first half of 2028? Are you convinced that the Philippines has nothing to gain economically from hosting the ASEAN Summit?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Attracts FDI Worth $210 Million in May 2026

August 18, 2026August 15, 2026carlocarrasco

The Philippines, which hosted the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other related conferences, failed once again on attracting significant foreign direct investment (FDI) as the May 2026 FDI net inflow was counted at $210 million only making it the lowest in eleven years, according to a news report by the Manila Bulletin.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

Foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows into the Philippines plunged to $210 million in May, the lowest monthly total in more than 11 years as global economic volatility and geopolitical tensions prompted foreign companies to delay capital commitments.

According to the latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), released on Monday, Aug. 10, the May figure represents a 64.7 percent contraction from the level recorded in May 2025 and falls below the previous record low of $200.43 million seen in March 2015.

The sharp monthly drop dragged total net inflows for the first five months of 2026 to $2.18 billion, a 33.4 percent decline from the $3.27 billion recorded in the same period last year.

According to the BSP, the cumulative decline was “driven by lower foreign net investments in debt instruments and reinvestment of earnings, which more than offset the increase in net equity capital investments (other than reinvestment of earnings).”

The central bank added that this trend “reflected lower intercompany borrowings from foreign direct investors and reduced earnings retained for reinvestment during the period.”

Among its components, the primary driver of the May shrinkage was the sharp fall in net investments in debt instruments, which tumbled 92.1 percent to $35 million from $440 million a year earlier.

As of end-May, debt instruments—which “consist mainly of intercompany borrowing or lending between foreign direct investors and their subsidiaries or affiliates in the Philippines”—totaled $1.25 billion, dropping by nearly half from the $2.48 billion recorded in 2025.

This five-month performance follows a challenging 2025, during which annual net inflows plunged to $7.79 billion from $9.40 billion in 2024. The BSP forecasts inflows to clock in lower at $7 billion before rebounding to $8 billion in 2027.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think hosting the ASEAN Summit will lead the Philippines to economic miracles and stronger FDI in the near future?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Attracts 3.7 Million International Visitors in First 7 Months of 2026

August 15, 2026August 12, 2026carlocarrasco

The Philippines, which has been struggling with weak economic growth and high inflation, attracted 3.7 million international visitors in the first 7 months of this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

Be mindful that the words “international visitors” includes both foreign tourists as well as Filipinos who are based abroad who happened to return to the country as “balikbayan”. For insight, the Philippines attracted 5.9 million foreign tourists in 2025 plus over half-a-million Filipinos from overseas which combines for 6.4 million international visitors for the year. For the first half of 2026, the nation attracted 2.9 million foreign tourists.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

The number of Philippine international visitors grew to around 3.7 million as of July, buoyed by more relaxed visa policies, with growing markets seen in China, India, and Taiwan, according to the Department of Tourism (DoT) on Friday.

DoT Undersecretary Verna Esmeralda C. Buensuceso cited the figure, noting a 4.25% increase in tourist arrivals compared to last year.

“From January to July this year, the Philippines welcomed approximately 3.7 million international visitors, representing a 4.25% increase in visitor arrivals compared to the same period last year,” Ms. Buensuceso said during the launch of the 4th Travel Sale Expo 2026.

“We are seeing good growth from markets like China at 67%, India at 34%, and Taiwan at 11.21% growth, buoyed in large part by more liberal visa policies,” she added.

The tourism Undersecretary also noted sustained growth trajectories from the country’s traditional foreign markets such as the United States of America, Canada, and Japan, driven by additional flights.

The country is also experiencing double-digit to triple-digit growth in international arrivals from our Southeast Asian peers, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Timor-Leste, due to the ongoing ASEAN Summit 2026 where the Philippines serves as the host country.

“These are encouraging signs, but let me emphasize that our goal is not simply to increase the number of arrivals,” Ms. Buensuceso said.

“Our real goal is to increase the value of tourism. We want tourism to create more jobs, attract more investments, and generate more opportunities that reach communities across the country,” she added.

The tourism industry contributed 8.1% to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, down from 8.7% in the previous year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). It also employed around 7.70 million Filipinos in 2025.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the DOT is padding the numbers on tourist arrivals to avoid embarrassment in the near future? Do you think the Philippines will be able to surpass 2025’s 5.9 million foreign tourist count by the end of this year? Do you believe that hosting the ASEAN Summit is actually helping the Philippine attract more tourists from its Southeast Asian neighbors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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ANZ Research Slashes Philippines Economic Growth Forecasts

July 1, 2026June 24, 2026carlocarrasco

It seems that economic disappointment lack of breakthroughs will keep hounding the Philippines in the short term as ANZ Research slashed its economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY could see its weakest post-pandemic growth this year as last year’s corruption controversies continue to weigh on confidence, compounded by accelerating inflation and rising interest rates amid the Middle East conflict, ANZ Research said.

In its latest outlook for the third quarter, the New Zealand-based think tank slashed its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines to 3.9% from 4.7%.

It likewise cut its growth outlook for 2027 to 5% from 5.6% previously.

“The Philippines’ outlook is more constrained by weak household and business confidence, elevated inflation, and higher interest rates,” ANZ Research Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur said on Tuesday.

Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said on Monday that the economy may grow by 3.5-4.5% this year, due to underspending and the fallout from the US-Iran war.

ANZ’s projections are below the government’s original targets of 5-6% for this year and 5.5%-6.5% next year. The Development Budget Coordination Committee has yet to release revised macroeconomic assumptions.

For 2028, ANZ sees the Philippine economy expanding by 5.5%, still below the government’s 6%-7% goal for the year.

Mr. Mathur noted that the weaker outlook also reflects expectations that lingering governance issues from last year’s flood control mess will prevent any significant rebound in public spending.

“Public spending likely bottomed in (the first quarter of) 2026, but a material recovery is unlikely until governance issues surrounding infrastructure projects are fully resolved,” he said.

In the first quarter, government spending grew by 3.22% year on year to P1.491 trillion from P1.444 trillion. It slightly improved at end-April after rising by 5.12% to P1.996.2 trillion from P1.899 trillion a year ago.

In late 2025, a flood control corruption scandal involving Public Works officials, private contractors and lawmakers took a major toll on public and business sentiment and dampened investments and government spending. This dragged the economy to its weakest growth since the COVID-19 pandemic at 4.4% last year from 5.7% in 2024.

“The Philippines stands out with negligible fiscal support, reflecting tight fiscal constraints and legal rigidities in fuel and utility pricing,” Mr. Mathur said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Are you convinced that the national economy will not achieve 6% growth rate during the final years of the Marcos administration? Do you think the administration’s hosting of the ASEAN Summit and participation in a big meeting with Vladimir Putin in Russia will not result in economic breakthroughs for the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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