BusinessWorld – Page 2 – Author Carlo Carrasco

Philippines Economic Growth May Slow Down To 4.2% This Year

March 10, 2026March 3, 2026carlocarrasco

In the view of the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P), the growth of the economy of the Philippines may slow down a bit further this year to 4.2%, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from report of the BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC growth may likely be even slower this year, amid uncertainty over a “meaningful” recovery, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said.

In its February The Market Call, UA&P cut its full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 4.2% from the “above 5%” forecast previously.

If realized, this will be even slower than the post-pandemic low of 4.4% GDP growth in 2025 when the flood control scandal dampened government spending and investments.

However, UA&P expects first-quarter GDP growth to pick up to 3.3% from 3% in the fourth quarter of 2025. If realized, it will be slower than 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025.

“More indicators revealed the impact of the flood control scandal, hurting economic growth in 2025 as sentiment points to a ‘muddling through’ scenario for 2026,” it said. UA&P said the government needs to ramp up spending to drive faster growth this year.

“While uncertainty over a meaningful economic recovery remains, we see some bits of light emerging,” it said.

“With inflation remaining in the lowest quarter of BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) target range, policy and interest rates declining, and the peso depreciating, consumer spending, residential property sales, car sales, equipment leasing and other interest-sensitive spending should provide better consumption expenditures in Q1,” it added.

Headline inflation picked up to 2% in January from 1.8% in December and 2.9% in the same month last year.

“A more optimistic PMI in January, along with expected increases in exports and remittances from overseas Filipinos, should be supported by the peso’s depreciation,” UA&P said.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a nine-month high of 52.9 in January due to fresh export orders.

Last year, merchandise exports reached $84.4 billion, reflecting a 15.2% increase amid “holiday demand, US agricultural exemptions, and a weaker peso.”

Cash remittances coursed through banks hit an all-time high in December at $3.5 billion, bringing the full-year tally to a record $35.6 billion.

Meanwhile, the UA&P said that it expects further weakening of the peso after the BSP cut its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) in February.

The Monetary Board lowered the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, the lowest in over three years. This brought the BSP’s total reductions to 225 bps since it began monetary policy easing in August 2024.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you find the latest economic outlook of UA&P believable and precise? Do you think the fallout from the flood control corruption scandal still is dragging down the economic growth of the nation? Do you think the national government will be able to increase its spending this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine Exporters Feeling Uneasy Over Trump’s New 15% Global Tariff

March 1, 2026February 26, 2026carlocarrasco

The new 15% tariff on imports announced by US President Donald Trump after reacting to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) decision is already troubling exporters of the Philippines, according to a report by BusinessWorld.

There is concern that the new tariff may dampen the export recovery of the Philippines. It should be recalled that the American tariff on Philippine-made goods was set at 19% following the meeting between President Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. last year.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE United States government’s plan to impose a new 15% tariff on imports may dampen the Philippines’ export recovery and disrupt supply chains, according to analysts.

“Under a 15% tariff, there might be a disruption in the supply chain, because other countries might negotiate or diverge [to other markets],” Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. President Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr. said in a phone call.

“Unfortunately, our competitors here in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) are supported by their governments, but we aren’t,” he added.

Mr. Ortiz-Luis said the Philippine government must resume negotiations with its US counterparts to ensure exports remain competitive.

Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said the new tariffs could dampen export recovery, especially for electronics, garments, and agricultural sectors.

“The renewed threat of a 15% global tariff signals that protectionist risks remain and could dampen export recovery if implemented, especially for semiconductors and intermediate goods integrated into US supply chains,” he said in a Viber message.

US President Donald J. Trump said he wants to impose a new 15% duty on US imports from all countries, starting Tuesday, Reuters reported. (Read related story “Asian economies weigh impact of fresh Trump tariff, uncertainties” on S1/11).

This after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program, ruling that Mr. Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed higher tariffs under an economic emergency law.

Government officials emphasized that the US remains an important trading and investment partner.

“We will continue to engage with (the US). A stable and predictable arrangement with the US will be very beneficial to our stakeholders,” Trade Undersecretary Allan B. Gepty said in a Viber message.

Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go earlier said that the majority of the country’s exports — like semiconductors and key agricultural goods — were already exempted before the US Supreme Court’s ruling.

The US has long been the Philippines’ biggest export market. From January to December 2025, the value of Philippine exports to the US stood at $13.44 billion.

“We don’t know under what authority he (Mr. Trump) will impose those tariffs, and if these will last. We will have to wait until the dust settles to properly assess the impact of his new universal tariffs,” Foundation for Economic Freedom President Calixto V. Chikiamco said in a Viber message.

Reuters reported the new US tariffs are grounded in a separate but untested law, known as Section 122, that allows tariffs up to 15% but requires congressional approval to extend them after 150 days.

Foreign Buyers Association of the Philippines President Robert M. Young said its members have been resuming talks with its US buyers.

“We have survived, for the last eight months, the US’ 19% tariff. So, I think we have to just go on with what we are doing, and we’ll try our best to just lower our price to be competitive with other ASEAN nations,” he said via telephone.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think Filipino exporters will do better with the new 15% tariff instead of the previous one set at 19%? If you are managing a company that makes products for export mainly to the United States, do you have any backup plans when dealing with new tariffs?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Cerberus’ P5.31 Billion Unsolicited Proposal For Subic Bay International Airport Development Under SBMA’s Review

February 28, 2026February 25, 2026carlocarrasco

When was the last time you visited the Subic Bay International Airport (SBIA)? In recent times, the US-based company Cerberus Asia Pacific Investments, LLC (Cerberus) proposed to manage, operate and rehabilitate the said airport for P5.31 billion and it has been endorsed by the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center. The unsolicited proposal is officially being reviewed by the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA), according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news article of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE P5.31-billion unsolicited proposal of US-based investment company Cerberus Asia Pacific Investments, LLC (Cerberus) to manage, operate, and upgrade Subic Bay International Airport (SBIA) is now being reviewed by the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA) after the go signal from the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center.

“This unsolicited project was endorsed by the (PPP) Center to the IA (implementing agency) after being determined complete… The Subic Bay International Airport PPP is currently undergoing the approval process of SBMA,” the PPP Center told BusinessWorld on Tuesday.

According to the PPP Center, the SBMA will be the approving body for the project. If approved, the airport project will be under an operate-add-transfer contract arrangement.

Once the SBMA approves the project, it will begin negotiations with the project proponent. The government will then formalize the Original Proponent Status and initiate the Swiss Challenge process.

The Swiss Challenge is a process where other companies can submit better offers, but the original proponent has the right to match them.

Cerberus Capital Management is an investment firm managing approximately $65 billion in assets. Its global network of affiliates includes Cerberus Asia Pacific, which focuses on investments in logistics, infrastructure, technology, and energy.

Cerberus already operates part of a 310-hectare lot of a former South Korean-owned shipyard located west of the airport for which it had submitted an unsolicited bid.

“In theory, competitive bidding is king. In the reality of the SBIA, Cerberus is the catalyst we need. It is time to choose strategic results over procedural delays,” Rene S. Santiago, former president of the Transportation Science Society of the Philippines, said in a Viber message.

Nigel Paul C. Villarete, a senior adviser on public-private partnerships at the technical advisory group Libra Konsult, said that solicited bidding would be more feasible and faster, as it enables the government to define the contract’s parameters and coverage.

“Many of our public facilities should be operated by the private sector to attain a lot of the efficiencies that they can do, which are often difficult to attain within the government realm,” Mr. Villarete said.

For Mr. Villarete, a government-led solicited procurement process will always be preferable.

However, since an unsolicited proposal has already been submitted, the government’s role is to enter into negotiations, introduce the necessary changes and amendments, and only then present the proposal to the public for challenge, he said.

“There should be a negotiation period for the two parties to discuss any amendments required by the government before this is published for challenge,” he said.

Cerberus’ proposal covers the rehabilitation of SBIA assets and the development of new facilities to expand capacity and attract new tenants.

The company has also committed to invest “considerable financial resources” and utilize its real estate management capabilities in developing the airport.

In its proposal the company said that it will maintain the existing leases but only for the “early years” of its concession period.

“Cerberus plans to maintain the status quo of existing operations by honoring existing leases and retaining incumbent employees. In parallel, Cerberus will invest significant capital expenditure to improve SBIA’s infrastructure and operations, whilst building new hangars and storage facilities to reestablish SBIA as a major hub for commercial cargo operations and to expand SBIA’s government logistics operations,” it said.

The company added that it will monitor and evaluate airport fees to optimize SBMA’s returns under the revenue-sharing agreement, while supporting efforts to attract and manage both existing and new airport tenants.

This revenue-sharing scheme would be the determining factor if the proposed 25-year concession agreement were extended, PPP Center said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What is your opinion about the current state of the international airport inside the Subic Bay Freeport Zone? Do you think so much more can be achieved with the Subic Bay International Airport in terms of expanding flight connectivity, attracting more tourists from overseas and paving way for more foreign commerce to enter the freeport?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Deals Worth $4.2 Million Signed To Expand Nuclear Cooperation

February 24, 2026February 18, 2026carlocarrasco

Recently the effort to integrate nuclear power into the energy mix of the Philippines moved a few steps forward as deals with American companies worth $4.2 million were formally signed, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news article of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES is gaining more support from the United States in its goal of integrating nuclear power into the national energy mix in the next six years as it sealed $4.2 million worth of deals with US companies.

Government agencies and private companies from the Philippines and the US on Monday entered into memoranda of understanding which are aimed at exploring deployment of nuclear technology and supporting nuclear workforce development in the country.

“The Philippine Energy Plan sets clear direction for an energy future — 1,200 megawatts (MW)by 2032. And that is not moving until somebody tells us that it’s impossible,” Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said in her speech during the signing ceremony in Makati City on Monday.

“These targets demand preparation, anchored in discipline, safety, and capacity. As we pursue energy security and a responsible transition, we must invest in our people as deliberately as we invest in infrastructure,” she added.

Under the Philippine Energy Plan, the country aims to integrate nuclear energy into the power mix with at least 1,200 MW of capacity by 2032, rising to 2,400 MW by 2045 and to 4,800 MW by 2050.

“We want to work together to get the Philippines to the finish line on nuclear energy,” Ann K. Ganzer, principal deputy assistant secretary at the US Department of State’s Bureau of Arms Control and Nonproliferation, said.

“Beyond acquiring the technology and establishing robust regulations, to achieve that 2032 goal, the most vital elements will be assessing sites for commercial reactor and developing the skilled workforce needed to design, construct, operate, regulate and sustain advanced nuclear plants for generations to come,” she added.

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), the country’s largest private electric distribution utility, secured a $2.7-million grant from the United States Trade and Development Agency to help the company assess and deploy US-designed small modular reactors (SMRs) in the Philippines.

Meralco will pursue a feasibility study which involves an evaluation of leading US technologies, identification of viable sites, and delivery of a high-level implementation roadmap.

SMRs, each capable of generating up to 300 MW, can be constructed more quickly than traditional nuclear power plants.

Meralco Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Manuel V. Pangilinan described the grant as “the beginning of a long but necessary journey.”

“Meralco is also looking actually at not only SMRs. It depends on the horizon by which we are able to deploy, but also, perhaps a bit sooner, conventional nuclear plants for this country,” Mr. Pangilinan said.

“It simply is right for the country and for Meralco to take nuclear, and we are prepared to act as thought leaders in this regard,” he added.

The US State Department’s Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Reactor Technology Program involves the installation of a $1.5-million nuclear reactor control room simulator at a technical institution within the planned Luzon Economic Corridor.

The simulator will provide hands-on realistic training for future reactor operators, which is aimed at positioning the Philippines as an SMR regional training hub.

Meanwhile, several private companies and government agencies also contributed $2.5 million to bring US nuclear experts to the Philippines to develop specialized vocational and higher education curricula focused on the civil nuclear industry.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines still has a lot of work to do and many challenges to resolve before it could convince foreign investors to come in? Do you think the national government is doing good enough to make the country attractive to foreign investors again?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine Peso Could Land At P59.70 To The US Dollar By End Of 2026

February 19, 2026February 12, 2026carlocarrasco

With its own analysis of varied economic factors, Metrobank stated that the Philippine Peso could end up at a rate of P59.70 to the US Dollar by the end of this year, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news article of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PESO may settle at P59.70 against the dollar by end-2026 on expectations of an economic rebound driven by improved investor confidence, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) said.

In a commentary dated Feb. 10, Metrobank trimmed its peso forecast for end-2026 to P59.70 a dollar from P60.80 previously. It likewise projects the peso to end 2027 at P58.50 versus the greenback, from its earlier estimate of P58.90.

“(A)n anticipated economic growth rebound and improved investor confidence, thanks to better government spending, could support the peso,” it said.

If the bank’s 2026 forecast holds true, the local unit would end the year weaker than its P58.79 finish against the dollar on the last trading day of 2025.

The lingering effects of the flood control corruption scandal and uncertainties in the global market pushed the peso to test new lows at the start of the year.

On Jan. 15, it closed at P59.46 per dollar, breaking the previous all-time low of P59.44 recorded just the day prior.

However, it has recently strengthened amid a weak dollar. On Wednesday, the local unit hit a near four-month high after closing at P58.29 versus the greenback, up 24 centavos from its P58.53 finish on Tuesday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

Meanwhile, Metrobank noted that the peso could struggle to regain further strength as the country’s current account is projected to remain at a shortfall this year.

“Still, the projected current account deficit this year — although narrower than last year’s — would cap the peso’s strength,” it said.

Based on the latest central bank data, the current account balance stood at a $12.5-billion deficit by the end of the third quarter. This was equivalent to -3.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Peso could perform better against the US Dollar and end up better than what Metrobank estimated? Do you think a weaker Peso would be very helpful to the exporters?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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2025 Foreign Investments Fall Down 50.1%

February 19, 2026February 13, 2026carlocarrasco

With the final economic numbers of 2025 counted, it has been confirmed that approved foreign investments in the Philippines fell down by more than 50%, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news article of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

APPROVED foreign investments in the Philippines plunged by 50.1% year on year to P272.38 billion in 2025, its sharpest fall in five years, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday.

Preliminary data from the PSA showed that the value of foreign commitments approved by the country’s investment promotion agencies (IPA) in 2025 was lower than P546.19 billion in 2024.

This was the steepest drop in foreign investments since the 71.3% drop recorded during the pandemic in 2020. By value, this was the lowest amount of approved foreign investments since the P241.89 billion recorded in 2022.

Singapore was the top source of investment pledges for 2025 after committing P92.78 billion, or 34.1% of the total. It was followed by the Netherlands with P35.98 billion (13.2% share) and Japan with P34.03 billion (12.5%).

Analysts attributed the sharp drop in foreign investment pledges to the sluggish investor confidence in the Philippines arising from global trade uncertainties, natural disasters and the flood control corruption scandal.

“In a nutshell, the decline in approved foreign investment pledges in 2025 was driven by a mix of weaker investor confidence due to governance and corruption issues, global economic uncertainties, cautious corporate behavior, and an unusually high base of comparison from the previous year,” said Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development.

Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said uncertainty over the US tariffs may have also dissuaded foreign investors from setting up operations in the Philippines.

The United States imposed a 19% tariff on most Philippine goods beginning Aug. 7, 2025.

“Similarly, weaker growth prospects from repeated natural disasters and the flood control scandal may have encouraged foreign companies to scrap or defer their investment plans in the country,” Mr. Agonia said in an e-mail.

The Board of Investments (BoI) approved P150.34 billion worth of investment pledges in 2025, accounting for 55.2% of the total. It was followed by the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) with investment pledges worth P107.06 billion (39.3% share), and the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) with P7.01 billion (2.6%).

For 2025, about 45% or P122.48 billion of the total approved foreign investments will go to the energy sector, followed by manufacturing with P81.41 billion (29.9% share) and real-estate activities with P26.31 billion (9.7%).

In 2025, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon) cornered around P100.43 billion worth of these investment pledges. Central Luzon will get P70.74 billion while the Bicol Region got P50.76 billion.

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines January 2026 Inflation Rate Lands At 2%

February 14, 2026February 9, 2026carlocarrasco

The inflation rate of the Philippines for the month of January 2026 landed at 2% which is the highest in almost a year’s time, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE INFLATION accelerated to its fastest pace in nearly a year in January amid a faster rise in rents and electricity rates, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported.

Headline inflation picked up to 2% from 1.8% in December but slowed from 2.9% in the same month last year. This was the fastest pace seen in 11 months or since 2.1% in February 2025.

It also marked the first time in almost a year that the consumer price index (CPI) hit the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2%-4% target.

The January clip was likewise above the 1.8% median forecast in a BusinessWorld poll of 18 economists but was within the central bank’s 1.4%-2.2% estimate for the month.

“The main reason for the higher inflation rate in January 2026 compared with December 2025 is the faster price increase in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which recorded a 3.3% inflation rate,” National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said at a news briefing on Thursday.

Inflation for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels quickened to 3.3%, the fastest since 3.8% in August 2024.

According to the PSA, this commodity group had a 45.9% share in the overall inflation uptick in January.

Broken down, inflation for electricity rose to 6.5% year on year in January from the revised 4% in December, while rental prices picked up by 2.9% during the month from 2.4% in December.

This comes even after Manila Electric. Co. trimmed electricity rates by 16.37 centavos per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to P12.9508 per kWh last month from P13.1145 per kWh in December, which meant households consuming an average of 200 kWh paid P33 less in their monthly electricity bill.

In January 2025, Meralco charged P11.7428 per kWh.

The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) said the government is enforcing programs to manage price pressures emerging from the energy sector. It includes improving the Department of Energy’s Net Metering Program by enforcing time-bound local permitting, simplifying utility documentary requirements and expanding consumer incentives.

“The program allows consumers to install eligible renewable energy systems and export surplus electricity to the grid, helping lower electricity costs and support the energy transition,” the DEPDev said in a statement.

Mr. Mapa also noted that liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) added price pressures, as inflation settled at -2.8% in January from -5.1% in December.

In January, Petron Corp. hiked LPG prices by P2.18 per kilogram (kg), while Solane imposed a P2.18-per-kg increase.

This means that the price of a household-standard 11-kg LPG tank ranged from P820 to P1,120 last month, based on data from the Department of Energy.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the inflation rate of the Philippines could rise to as much as 3% this year? What do you think will be the factors – both internal and external – that will cause the inflation rate to spike?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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ADB Says Philippine Economy Could Grow Around 6% In 2027

February 7, 2026February 2, 2026carlocarrasco

In its latest economic analysis, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says that the economy of the Philippines could grow by about 6% in 2027 provided that investments – both public and private – would regain strength, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY could return to around 6% growth by 2027 if public and private investments rebound, according to Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries.

“I think (the drivers are a) kind of a little of everything, but return to high investment, public and private, I think would be, to me, the key driver,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an event on Jan. 23.

Last December, the ADB slashed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5% for 2025, from 5.6% previously. For 2026, the ADB trimmed its GDP projection to 5.3% from 5.7% previously.

This comes after a corruption scandal dampened government spending, household consumption, investor confidence and economic activity last year.

The ADB will release its updated economic outlook in April, which will include a 2027 growth forecast.

Mr. Jeffries warned that the cut in Department of Public Works and Highways’ (DPWH) budget this year, could trigger a “big slowdown” in locally funded projects.

“I guess the main variable for 2026 was how fast does the public investment recover? We were thinking maybe two quarters, so it’ll start reviving,” he said.

In a meeting with Public Works Secretary Vivencio “Vince” B. Dizon in December, Mr. Jeffries said they raised concerns about “paralysis,” where key projects risked getting stuck.

“What we’ve heard is they’re trying to make sure the priority projects are not stuck and keep moving forward quickly. I think it’s a twofold exercise,” he said. “It’s cleaning up the problem while full steam ahead on some of the other projects that weren’t a problem.”

Mr. Dizon earlier said the DPWH aims to boost spending while ensuring funds are used wisely and focus on prioritizing the “basics” such as road and bridge maintenance and unfinished projects. The agency’s target spend is set between P200 billion and P250 billion for the first quarter, he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Jeffries said the Philippines must raise the share of exports in the economy to support long-term growth, as well as diversify its base, and boost resilience.

“It’s not something that happens overnight. It’ll be a combination of policies and attracting investment and improving the business environment and all of those things combined,” Mr. Jeffries said. “But neighbors have done it and the Philippines can do that.”

He noted the Philippines was shielded from external shocks, largely because exports remain a relatively small part of the economy.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the ADB’s analysis for the Philippines is correct? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough strength to grow by at least 6% in 2027?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nomura Says Philippine Economic Growth May Fall Below 4% In The Near Term

January 15, 2026January 9, 2026carlocarrasco

By pointing to the effects of the flood control corruption scandal as well as other factors, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the economic growth of the Philippines may fall below 4% in the near term, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from business report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth may fall below 4% in the near term as the billion‑peso flood control scandal drags on, affecting government spending and dampening consumption and sentiment, Nomura Global Markets Research said.

“I think going forward, these spillover effects (from the graft scandal) will also expand,” Nomura Chief Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economist Euben Paracuelles told Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News on Thursday.

The scandal, which curbed state spending last year, is expected to dampen household consumption and business investment amid weaker sentiment, he added.

“If the drag is now sort of becoming more broad-based, not just the drop in government spending, you’ll see growth coming potentially below 4%, at least in the near term,” he said.

Nomura now expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 5.3% in 2026 from 5.6% previously. This is still within the government’s recently revised 5-6% target this year.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said growth targets were lowered through 2027, after GDP growth likely slowed to 4.8-5% in 2025 amid the flood control controversy.

The government cut its 2026 projection to 5-6% and to 5.5-6.5% for 2027 from the earlier 6-7% range. The 2028 target was retained at 6-7%.

Mr. Paracuelles anticipates that the government will roll out catch-up spending plans, possibly in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, the Philippines may earn a credit rating upgrade if the government manages to resolve the flood control corruption issue within a year, Mr. Paracuelles said.

“The key for me is 12 months from here, when they need to decide on whether they need to upgrade the Philippines, I think it’s still quite uncertain,” he said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economic growth of the Philippines is indeed slowing down right now? Would you be surprised to see the nation’s economic growth reach less than 4%? Do you think the officials of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) is working sufficiently to restore its credibility?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Meralco Plans Key Study With USTDA This Quarter

January 12, 2026January 6, 2026carlocarrasco

Philippines energy giant Meralco revealed that it intends to start a crucial study with the United States Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) within the first quarter this year, according to a BusinessWorld news report. The topic of the study is the adoption of small modular reactors (SMRs).

For the newcomers reading this, Meralco is the most notable private entity in the Philippines with strong interest on nuclear power. To learn more about them and their nuclear pursuit, click here and here.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

MANILA ELECTRIC CO. (Meralco) plans to begin a study with the United States Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) on the adoption of small modular reactors (SMR) within the first quarter, the company said in a disclosure to the local bourse on Monday.

“The study is expected to commence during the first quarter and is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter this year,” it said.

The power distributor is set to issue a request for proposal this month to select a contractor that will conduct the feasibility study.

Meralco earlier secured a $2.7-million (P160 million) grant from USTDA to fund the assessment of SMR deployment in the Philippines.

The initiative forms part of Meralco’s Nuclear Energy Strategic Transition (NEST) program, under which the company has been carrying out pre-feasibility work and partnership discussions to evaluate nuclear technologies suitable for local conditions.

The study supports the Department of Energy’s (DoE) goal of incorporating at least 1,200 megawatts (MW) of nuclear power into the country’s energy mix by 2032 as part of efforts to diversify supply and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Starting in April, Meralco said it would begin identifying potential sites suitable for SMR facilities, in coordination with government agencies such as the DoE and Philippine Nuclear Research Institute. Site selection will consider technical, environmental and regulatory factors.

SMRs are designed to generate up to 300 MW each and can be built in a shorter timeframe compared with conventional large-scale nuclear power plants. Proponents say their smaller size and modular construction could allow more flexible deployment.

Aside from the technical study, Meralco said it would carry out stakeholder engagement and consultations, capability-building initiatives and support work related to the country’s legal and regulatory frameworks governing nuclear energy.

By the fourth quarter, the company expects to produce a shortlist of potential sites for submission to the DoE and Philippine Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority, the recently established independent regulator overseeing nuclear and radiation-related activities.

“The NEST program is in its preparatory phase, thus no material impact is expected on the company’s business, operations, and financials at this juncture,” Meralco said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Are you hopeful that Meralco’s planned study with the USTDA will lead to progress to achieving nuclear energy in the Philippines within the next few years? Are members of your local community aware about the current move of the country towards nuclear power?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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