BusinessWorld – Page 3 – Author Carlo Carrasco

Fitch Ratings Says Flood Control Corruption Scandal Imperils Philippines’ Credit Rating

December 23, 2025December 16, 2025carlocarrasco

It has been months since the flood control corruption scandal rocked the entire Philippines and the economic situation has turned for the worse along the way (click here, here and here). In the view of Fitch Ratings, the scandal puts the nation’s credit rating at risk, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE Philippine economy continues to bear the brunt of the ongoing flood control corruption scandal, Fitch Ratings said, noting that further unrest could spill over to the country’s credit rating.

Fitch Ratings Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereigns Thomas Rookmaaker said the controversy surrounding the anomalous government flood control projects threatens the country’s political stability, fiscal policy implementation, as well as business and consumer confidence.

“We believe that the flood control corruption scandal in the Philippines poses an ongoing risk to political stability, fiscal policy execution, and business and consumer confidence,” Mr. Rookmaaker told BusinessWorld in an e-mail.

Government officials, lawmakers and contractors have been accused of getting billions of pesos in kickbacks from substandard or nonexistent flood control projects. This has triggered widespread protests, slowed government spending, and hurt investor and consumer sentiment.

“The overall impact the scandal will have on the Philippines’ public finances is still uncertain,” Mr. Rookmaaker said.

“Public investment spending is likely to remain weak for quite some time, but continued social unrest could simultaneously lead to spending pressures to head off public discontent.”

In October, government spending fell for a third straight month to P430.6 billion, down 7.76% from P466.8 billion a year ago. Revenues likewise slipped by 6.64% to P441.7 billion from P473.1 billion last year.

Mr. Rookmaaker noted that the immediate impact of the scandal was reflected in the sharp economic slowdown in the third quarter.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by an over four-year low of 4% in the third quarter, as household final consumption expenditure and government spending slowed amid the corruption mess.

For the first nine months, GDP growth averaged 5%, well-below the government’s 5.5-6.5% full-year target. Public investments likewise took a hit from the corruption issues, he added.

In the third quarter, foreign investment pledges approved by investment promotion agencies plunged by 48.7% to P73.68 billion, Philippine Statistics Authority data showed.

“Persisting social tensions could become more of a drag on growth if confidence among foreign and domestic investors suffers,” the Fitch analyst said. “Tensions could also serve as a distraction for policymakers, impeding the passage of reforms that have the potential to enhance economic productivity and competitiveness.”

Mr. Rookmaaker said implementing reforms to enhance accountability and governance could bolster private investments and promote growth in the medium term.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think Fitch Ratings is correct with its economic analysis of the Philippines and the flood control corruption scandal? Do you think foreign investors have been turned off by the scandals and social unrest?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Attracted Only 5.235 Million International Tourist Arrivals In January-November 2025 Period

December 23, 2025December 17, 2025carlocarrasco

Even though there already is a foreign tourism boom in Southeast Asia, the Philippines has literally been left behind by its neighbors as it attracted only 5.235 million international tourist arrivals for the period of January to November 2025, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

For the newcomers reading this, the Philippines has been struggling throughout the year when it comes to attracting foreign visitors. In 2024, the Philippines attracted 5,949,350 foreign visitors which is way off the declared target of 7,700,000. A real estate advisory firm pointed to domestic travel as the key for the recovery of the nation’s tourism industry. Read my previous blog post by clicking here.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

VISITOR ARRIVALS in the Philippines fell by 2.16% in the first 11 months, amid a decline in tourists from South Korea and China, Tourism department data showed.

Data from the Department of Tourism (DoT) showed international tourist arrivals dropped to 5.235 million in the January-to-November period from 5.35 million in the same period in 2024.

Of the tourist arrivals, the bulk or 4.918 million were foreign tourists, while the rest were overseas Filipinos.

South Korea remained the biggest source of tourists in the first 11 months, accounting for 21.66% of the total. While 1.134 million South Koreans visited the Philippines as of November, this was a 21% decline from the 1.436 million Korean tourists a year ago.

The US was the second-biggest source of tourists, at 894,835 or 17.09% of the total as of end-November. This was 6.57% higher than last year’s 839,635 tourist arrivals from the US.

Japan was the third-biggest source of tourists, accounting for 406,794 or 7.77% of the total, 15.36% up from 352,630 a year ago.

Tourist arrivals from Australia increased by 16.17% to 268,892 in the 11-month period. Meanwhile, tourists from China fell by 16.55% to 248,339 as of end-November.

The other top markets were Canada, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Malaysia, which cumulatively accounted for 793,750 of the total arrivals.

“The weaker South Korean won amid a volatile political and economic situation over the past year and slower economic growth in China, which is the world’s second-biggest economy, on top of territorial disputes partly weighed on foreign tourism numbers,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Mr. Ricafort noted that the government should improve infrastructure to make it more convenient for tourists to travel around the country.

“Challenges include the need to further expand and develop tourism-related infrastructure such as airports, seaports, accommodation facilities, and train systems, including the Metro Manila subway and toll roads,” he added.

Despite the decline in the first 11 months, Mr. Ricafort said that it is still possible for the country to surpass the tourist arrivals last year, which reached 5.949 million.

“It is still possible, considering some seasonal increase in foreign tourists during the Christmas holiday season, especially overseas Filipino workers and balikbayans, to spend the most festive time of the year, while others escape winter,” he said.

“A higher US dollar-peso exchange rate would make it cheaper for foreign tourists to come to the Philippines,” he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Ricafort noted the growth in tourist arrivals from India and other countries, which helped “offset the decline in major traditional sources such as South Korea and China.”

India was the 11th biggest source of tourist arrivals in the January-to-November period, accounting for 85,885 or 1.64% of the total. Tourists from India increased by 17.06% from 73,369 arrivals in the same period in the previous year.

Earlier this year, the Philippines and India signed the Implementation Program on Tourism Cooperation for the years 2025 to 2028.

For his part, Colliers Research Director Joey Roi H. Bondoc said that with only 5.235 million as of end-November, it will be difficult for the country to even surpass last year’s arrivals.

“I think it will be very difficult… We may not be able to beat that or even meet that, but of course we want to end the year stronger,” he said in a phone interview.

“We see a lot of foreign tourists still in December because of the holiday season. Definitely that optimism should spill over to next year,” he added.

As for the drop in arrivals from South Korea, Mr. Bondoc attributed this to the economic downturn and political crisis in the country.

“If you look at some integrated casinos, they were initially targeting Koreans… so they are experiencing the pinch of slower arrivals from South Korea,” he said.

Mr. Bondoc said the Philippines should try to attract tourists from other markets.

For further insight about the tourism industry problem of the Philippines, watch the CNA Insider video below.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the Philippines can still beat its 2024 record of international visitor arrivals and generate huge revenues for the economy? Do you think the current administration will be able to improve the nation’s infrastructure and make travel more efficient and convenient for all tourists? Do you think the Philippines is too expensive when it comes to air travel?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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World Bank Sees Philippine Economy Gradually Recovering In 2026 And 2027

December 11, 2025December 10, 2025carlocarrasco

The World Bank (WB) sees the economy of the Philippines making a gradual recovery in 2026 and 2027 fueled by strong domestic demand, according to a news report by BusinessWorld. The WB also stressed that corruption is unacceptable.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE WORLD BANK (WB) sees a gradual recovery for the Philippines in 2026 and 2027, after growth slowed this year due to weaker investment and sluggish consumption, compounded by a corruption scandal and a string of natural disasters.

In its latest Philippines Economic Update released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender trimmed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5.1% for this year from 5.3% in its June report. For 2026, it lowered its Philippine GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.4% previously.

The World Bank also cut its Philippine GDP growth projection for 2027 to 5.4% from 5.5% previously.

These latest projections are below the government’s 5.5-6.5% growth goal for this year and the 6-7% target for 2026 to 2028.

“To borrow from Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo (Management), it’s a Nike swoosh pattern. He describes the US economy, and I’m describing our forecast for the Philippines as a kind of Nike swoosh. We have a dip in 2025, and then we have a gradual recovery in 2026 to 2027,” World Bank Senior Economist Jaffar Al-Rikabi said during a briefing.

He noted the average growth of the Philippines over 2025 to 2027 will be lower than 2024 when GDP expanded by 5.7%.

“For 2025… the growth is largely weighed down by domestic factors. In particular, lower construction activity and weaker consumption growth,” he said.

The Philippine economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 4% in the third quarter, bringing nine-month growth to 5%, as the pace of household final consumption expenditure and government spending slowed amid a corruption scandal.

Mr. Al-Rikabi also noted the deceleration in fixed investment and private consumption due to higher-than-expected number of natural disasters that hit the Philippines this year.

“But for 2026 to 2027, we think that it’s likely that external factors will weigh more heavily on growth, largely slower export demand,” Mr. Al-Rikabi said.

The US imposed a 19% tariff on most goods from the Philippines starting August, dampening export demand.

The World Bank said the Philippine economy’s growth will pick up in 2026 and 2027, fueled by strong domestic demand.

“Private consumption is projected to strengthen as inflation stays low, employment remains robust, and monetary easing lowers interest rates, making it easier for businesses and households to borrow,” it said in the report.

According to the World Bank, private consumption, which accounts for more than 70% of the economy, is projected to expand by 4.8% this year, slowing from 4.9% in 2024. This is expected to pick up to 5.3% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027.

The World Bank said investment is likely to recover as public infrastructure projects regain momentum, while recent liberalization reforms in telecommunications, transport, logistics and renewable energy improve the business climate.

The multilateral lender also expects headline inflation to average 1.8% this year, describing the pace as “very moderate” and a key source of resilience. This forecast is slightly above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.7% projection for 2025 and the 1.6% average recorded in the first 11 months.

‘CORRUPTION IS UNACCEPTABLE’ – Even as the Philippine economy will see a gradual recovery in the next two years, Mr. Al-Rikabi noted risks are tilted to the downside, with “more prominent” domestic drivers.

“There is a continued challenge of heightened perceptions around governance risks. This could, if it continues, erode investor confidence. It could delay public investment execution, and it could weaken growth,” he said.

The World Bank economist also noted there may be delays in fiscal and structural reforms amid the current domestic environment, “which could slow consolidation and weigh on growth over the medium term.”

A corruption scandal involving anomalous flood control projects has already triggered protests, slowed economic activity, and shaken investor confidence in the country.

“From the World Bank perspective, corruption is unacceptable,” World Bank Country Director for the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei Zafer Mustafaoğlu said during the same briefing.

“The World Bank considers it detrimental to any country and has been fighting against corruption in all the member countries that we operate in,” he added.

Mr. Mustafaoğlu said the Philippine government could take this opportunity to increase transparency and modernize its budget execution system “that could actually support longer-term growth and can increase investment confidence (and) can increase long-term potential growth,” he said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the national economy will recover gradually in 2026 and 2027 as the World Bank predicted? With inflation being low, do you feel confident about spending for your needs and wants in the short term?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Investors’ Interest In Nuclear Energy In The Philippines Remains Strong

November 30, 2025November 24, 2025carlocarrasco

The future of a nuclear-powered Philippines remains achievable as the Department of Energy (DOE) confirmed that investors are strongly interested in nuclear energy in the country, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

For the newcomers reading this, more Filipinos expressed through a survey their preference for nuclear power for electricity, PhilATOM was signed into law by President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, and Meralco is preparing its bid for a nuclear power license.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

INVESTORS are still keen on developing nuclear energy projects in the Philippines, the Department of Energy (DoE) said, as the government prepares to start accepting applications next year.

Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said there is significant investor interest in nuclear energy projects in the Philippines, as some companies have already presented their ideas.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Ms. Garin said companies want to go into nuclear energy as they see it as a possible solution to serve baseload capacity and to cater to the increasing demand from data centers.

“They’re very interested and are waiting for us to finalize the site selection and site evaluation,” she said in mixed Filipino and English.

The DoE plans to begin accepting applications for nuclear energy projects by 2026 as part of efforts to integrate nuclear power into the country’s energy mix by 2032.

Under the Philippine Energy Plan, the country aims to integrate nuclear energy into the power mix with at least 1,200 megawatts (MW) of capacity by 2032, increasing it to 2,400 MW by 2045 and to 4,800 MW by 2050.

“I understand, the companies are waiting for us to guide them on which are the areas that are more feasible. But some companies have already approached DoE to enter into a memorandum of agreement, non-exclusive, to explore the possible nuclear power plant development,” Ms. Garin said.

She said some energy firms have expressed interest in nuclear energy development such as power distributor Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) and power generation firm Aboitiz Power Corp.

In a separate interview, Meralco Executive Vice-President Chief Operating Officer Ronnie L. Aperocho said that the company waiting to see the ongoing development of Romania’s first small modular reactor before proceeding on its own.

“There is a requirement from PhilATOM (Philippine Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority) that the first-of-its-kind technology must run of at least about two years without any incidents before we can adopt it here in the Philippines. So, we have to go through that two-year requirement,” he said in mixed Filipino and English.

In September, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed Republic Act No. 12305, the Philippine National Nuclear Energy Safety Act, which created PhilATOM.

PhilATOM is an independent quasi-judicial body tasked with overseeing all nuclear and radiation activities in the country. Under the law, PhilATOM will hold sole and exclusive jurisdiction over the regulation of nuclear energy and radiation sources in the Philippines, ensuring their peaceful, safe and secure use.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think nuclear power in the Philippines will become a reality over the next several years?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines At Risk Of Falling Behind Southeast Asian Neighbors Economically

November 26, 2025November 19, 2025carlocarrasco

The 3^rd quarter growth of only 4% the Philippines achieved has been on people’s minds a lot lately. As such, the country is at risk of falling behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia in terms of economic growth and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy is at risk of further falling behind its Southeast Asian neighbors, an economist said, noting it may take two years to catch up with Vietnam and up to 70 years to catch up with Singapore.

“(T)he Philippines could find itself lagging behind if alleged public spending issues continue to divert attention and resources away from the structural reforms needed to accelerate economic development,” Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said in a commentary on Wednesday.

In the third quarter, Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4%, its slowest pace in over four years amid slower household and public infrastructure spending as the flood control scandal dampened investor and con-sumer sentiment.

In the nine months to September, GDP growth averaged 5%, putting the government’s 5.5%-6.5% full-year growth target further out of reach.

“The Philippine economy is growing, but not enough to close the economic gap with other countries,” Mr. Neri said.

He noted the Philippine GDP per capita is lower compared with other economies in the region. Citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, he said the Philippines’ GDP per capita stood at $4,078 in 2024.

“At the current growth rate, it would take the Philippines two years to catch up with the GDP per capita of Vietnam, 4 years with Indonesia, 14 years with Thailand, 26 years with Malaysia, and 70 years with Singapore, assuming their incomes remain stagnant. In reality, their GDP per capita continues to grow, which means the gap could persist or even widen,” Mr. Neri said.

The Philippines lagged behind Singapore which had a GDP per capita of $90,674 in 2024, followed by South Korea ($36,128), Japan ($32,498), China ($13,312), Malaysia ($12,540), Thailand ($7,491), Indonesia ($4,958) and Vietnam ($4,535).

“Before the pandemic, the Philippines had a higher GDP per capita than Vietnam, but has since been overtaken. At current trends, it would take the Philippines two years to catch up with Vietnam, but that gap could increase to 13 years by 2044,” Mr. Neri said.

The BPI economist said the Philippines needs structural reforms to accelerate growth in order to close the widening gap with its neighbors.

“The current economic model of the country is not enough, as shown by the country’s inability to grow faster than 6% in recent years,” he said.

Mr. Neri said the economy has been “too reliant” on consumer spending, driven by overseas Filipino worker (OFW) remittances and the business process outsourcing industry.

“There is a need to diversify its sources of growth. The economy must improve in terms of production, especially in agriculture and manufacturing, as they will allow the economy to be more self-sufficient and to reach foreign markets. These industries have been critical to Vietnam’s success and could play a similar role for the Philippines,” he said.

However, Mr. Neri said implementing these reforms will be hard if the government lacks focus.

“Public spending issues divert fiscal resources and policymaking focus away from long-term development priorities. Efforts to strengthen safeguards against potential issues in government spending are essential, enabling the country to work on structural reforms that could improve the economy,” he said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think should the government do to accelerate economic growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Approved Foreign Investment Pledges Fall Down 48.7% In 3rd Quarter

November 21, 2025November 14, 2025carlocarrasco

The flood control corruption scandals connected with the weaker investor sentiment resulted in a 48.7% fall in foreign investment pledges during the 3^rd quarter this year, according a news report by BusinessWorld. It should be noted that Philippines GDP growth for the same quarter slowed down a lot.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

APPROVED foreign investment pledges plunged nearly 50% in the third quarter as investor sentiment soured due to the corruption scandal involving government infrastructure projects, the local statistics agency said.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed the value of foreign commitments approved by investment promotion agencies (IPAs) fell by 48.7% to P73.68 billion in the July-to-September period from P143.74 billion in same period last year.

However, this was the highest amount of investment pledges since the third quarter of 2024.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said the decline in approved investments can be attributed to the weaker investor sentiment.

“Tingin ko. Wala pang nakukulong eh (I think so. No one has been imprisoned yet),” he said in a Viber message, when asked if this sharp slump in approved investments will likely persist in the fourth quarter until 2026.

Quarter on quarter, the approved pledges rose by 9.34% from P67.38 billion in the second quarter.

Singapore was the top source of foreign investment pledges in the third quarter with P20.26 billion (27.5%), followed by Japan with P13.59 billion (18.4%) and Cayman Islands with P13.14 billion (17.8%).

Investment commitments from South Korea stood at P5.57 billion (7.6%), while those from China stood at P4.51 billion (6.1%)

PSA data showed the investment pledges were approved by seven IPAs — the Authority of the Freeport Area of Bataan, Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), Board of Investments (BoI), Clark Development Corp., Clark International Airport Corp., Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), and Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think the government must do to convince foreign investors to become more confident about investing in the Philippines? Do you think the investigation and pace of justice related to the flood control corruption scandal is moving too slowly?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Meralco Preparing Bid For Nuclear Power License

November 18, 2025November 10, 2025carlocarrasco

The Manila Electric Company (Meralco) announced recently that it is getting ready with its bid for a nuclear power license which is needed I order to operate power facilities with nuclear energy, according to a BusinessWorld news report. This development is a part of the collective effort to make nuclear Philippines a reality.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

MANILA ELECTRIC CO. (Meralco) said it is preparing to apply for a license to operate nuclear power facilities in time for the opening up of the application process next year.

“We’ve been very aggressive on this, (but) we have to comply with the timeline set by the Department of Energy,” Meralco Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer Ronnie L. Aperocho told reporters late last month.

Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin has said that applications will be opened up for nuclear energy projects by 2026, overseen by the Philippine Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority (PhilATOM).

Under Republic Act No. 12305, or the Philippine National Nuclear Energy Safety Act, PhilATOM will have sole jurisdiction over the regulation of nuclear energy and radiation sources.

The Philippines is hoping to integrate nuclear energy into the power mix with at least 1,200 megawatts (MW) of capacity by 2032, increasing to 2,400 MW by 2045 and 4,800 MW by 2050.

Ms. Garin has said that several companies have expressed interest in submitting nuclear energy project proposals.

Meralco is looking at small modular reactors (SMRs) when it enters the market. SMRs, each capable of generating up to 300 MW, can be constructed more quickly than traditional nuclear power plants.

Mr. Aperocho said that Meralco is awaiting details of the incentives and the liability profile for proponents, which will influence funding available for nuclear.

The company is expecting a $2.7-million grant from the US Trade and Development Agency to fund a feasibility study on SMRs.

“Both sides have fulfilled the required conditions. It’s just a matter of formality now…we’re hoping it gets sorted out soon so the grant can start running,” Mr. Aperocho said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Are you aware that nuclear power plants can create abundant energy that solar and wind power cannot achieve?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Overstaying Chinese National Arrested For Parañaque Scam Operation

November 14, 2025November 6, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently in the city of Parañaque, elements of the Bureau of Immigration (BI) arrested an overstaying Chinese national who was caught in the act of running a scam operation in his residence, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE Bureau of Immigration (BI) has arrested a Chinese national allegedly operating a cryptocurrency investment scam in a condominium unit in Parañaque City.

In a statement on Wednesday, the BI said fugitive search unit (FSU) agents, working with the Criminal Investigation and Detection Group-National Capital Region (CIDG-NCR) and the Department of Justice Office of Cybercrime, apprehended a 41-year-old Chinese national on Monday, inside a residence along Diosdado Macapagal Blvd. in Barangay Tambo.

Authorities said the man was caught in the act of managing a computer workstation suspected of being used for online fraud. Intelligence reports earlier linked the location to another Chinese national believed to be running the operation with several accomplices.

He had also overstayed in the country, failing to extend his visa since October 2024, and was found to be working without a permit.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What do you think about this recent development? If you are a resident of Parañaque, are you concerned that there could be more Chinese nationals illegally staying and secretly doing scam operations? Are there many Chinese nationals living in your residential community right now?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nomura Sees 2025 Philippine Economic Growth Slowing Down To 4.7%

October 30, 2025October 29, 2025carlocarrasco

In its latest economic report, Nomura Global Markets Research sees the economic growth of the Philippines slowing down to 4.7% this and they pointed to an expected decline in government spending, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH may slow to 4.7% this year, as government spending is expected to further decline amid the corruption investigation in infrastructure projects, Nomura Global Markets Research said.

In a report dated Oct. 27, Nomura Chief ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economist Euben Paracuelles and Macroeconomic Research Analyst Yiru Chen said the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast was slashed to 4.7% this year from 5.3% previously as downside risks increased due to the corruption scandal involving flood control projects.

“This pencils in GDP growth slowing to just 4% in the second half from 5.4% in the first half and is based on the assumption that the decline in government expenditures in September will worsen in the next 3-4 months,” they said.

Nomura’s latest forecast is below the government’s 5.5-6.5% GDP growth target for the year and is slower than the 5.7% growth in 2024.

“Taking into account the sharp drop in fiscal spending in September, we think the ‘bad scenario’ on the growth impact of the ongoing corruption scandal is materializing,” they said.

Third-quarter GDP data will be released on Nov. 7.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. had flagged anomalous flood control projects during his State of the Nation Address in late July. This sparked several investigations into alleged corruption involving lawmakers, government officials, and private contractors.

Latest Treasury data showed government expenditures declined by 7.53% in September, worsening from the 0.7% drop in August, mainly due to lower spending by the Department of Public Works and Highways. Nomura also noted that government spending declined by 2.8% in the third quarter, a reversal of 1.6% growth in the second quarter.

“Excluding interest payments and debt servicing, expenditure growth slumped even more to -10.2% y-o-y (year on year) in September from -3.5% in August, the weakest since 2020. This suggests a relatively rapid deterioration in the pace of budget disbursements after President Marcos brought to light the corruption scandal of flood control projects,” they said.

Nomura also noted that the reallocation of funds to other types of capital expenditures such as school buildings has been “challenging” to implement.

“In addition, we incorporate some spillovers into other components of domestic demand, which were also evident in these previous episodes, including household consumption spending. Our forecast continues to take into account the impact of the US tariffs, which, as we have argued before, pose significant headwinds for goods exports,” they said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the GDP growth of the Philippines will end up below 5% for 2025 as a whole? Are you convinced that investigations and embarrassing details from flood control projects are turning away foreign investors already?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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DEPDev Secretary Says Philippines Likely To Hit Low-End Of 2025 GDP Growth Target

October 26, 2025October 17, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently the Secretary of the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) expressed confidence that the economy of the Philippines will hit the low-end target of GDP growth for 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said he is confident Philippine economic growth will hit the lower end of the target this year, despite a slowdown in the third quarter.

“The growth that we are expecting for 2025 is now 5.5 to 6.5% The low-end of the range is still very much achievable,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an event on Oct. 16.

Economic managers will meet next week to assess whether revisions to this year’s growth outlook are needed, he added.

Budget Secretary and Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) Chairperson Amenah F. Pangandaman on Wednesday told BusinessWorld that the gross domestic product (GDP) target for 2025 “remains attainable.”

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto earlier said flagged a slowdown in the third quarter and possibly until early 2026 as corruption probes curb public spending.

Aside from slower public spending, Mr. Balisacan said weather disruptions may have dampened economic activity in the July-September period.

“There may be a bit of a slowdown (in third quarter) because of these supply shocks that we have seen. There are so many typhoons that we have seen during the quarter, many days of work suspension. So economic activity is really affected,” he said.

Asked whether third quarter growth could fall below the 5.5% annual GDP growth in the second quarter, Mr. Balisacan said: “Hopefully not.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Would you be satisfied to see the economy of the Philippines grow by 5.5% this year? Do you think there will still be a lot of challenges and problems in the 4^th quarter that could somehow bring economic growth below 5.5% for the entire year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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