public service – Page 3 – Author Carlo Carrasco

Tourism’s Contribution To Philippines GDP The Lowest In 3 Years

June 7, 2026June 2, 2026carlocarrasco

Given the fact that the Philippines has been having trouble attracting foreign tourists and their money, it has been confirmed that the tourism industry’s contribution to the national economy in 2025 fell down to a 3-year low, according to a news report by BusinessWorld. For insight, the Philippines attracted 5.94 million foreign tourists in 2025 while Indonesia attracted 15.39 million, Vietnam attracted a record-high 21.2 million and Thailand attracted almost 33 million.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE TOURISM industry’s contribution to the Philippine economy fell to its lowest level in three years in 2025, weighed down by weaker tourism spending by foreign visitors, according to data from the statistics agency.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed tourism’s direct gross value added (TDGVA) accounted for 8.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, down from 8.7% of GDP in 2024.

This was tourism’s lowest contribution to the national output in at least three years or since 2022 when it contributed 6.3% to the country’s GDP.

The country’s TDGVA was estimated at P2.27 trillion last year, down by 1.4% from the revised P2.3 trillion in 2024.

The TDGVA measures the value generated from various tourism-related activities and is based on the results of the Philippine Tourism Satellite Accounts report, which the PSA compiles from the Department of Tourism.

Tourism Congress of the Philippines President James M. Montenegro said the drop reflected external pressures, structural constraints and a weaker recovery in international tourism relative to the rest of the Philippine economy.

“While domestic tourism remained resilient, inbound tourism weakened significantly in 2025, which pulled down overall tourism value creation,” Mr. Montenegro said in a Viber message.

He said a major factor was the slower-than-expected recovery of inbound tourism from key Asian markets such as China and India even after the Philippine government eased visa requirement for Chinese and Indian nationals.

Mr. Montenegro said another challenge is the Philippine tourism industry’s ability to remain competitive in attracting foreign tourists. He said the Philippines should prioritize making key destinations more accessible to major regional markets.

“Many neighboring countries accelerated aggressive tourism recovery programs, including visa-free access, expanded airline incentives, stronger destination marketing, and airport infrastructure improvements. The Philippines continued to face challenges in air connectivity, airport capacity, inter-island transport efficiency, and tourist friction points,” Mr. Montenegro said.

He said that while the Philippines’ tourism sector has one of the highest contributions to GDP in Southeast Asia, it continues to lag behind regional peers in attracting tourists.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Were you surprised that the Philippines remained weak on attracting foreign tourists even though some reforms were implemented? Do you think the local tourism authorities should focus more on domestic tourism which itself remains strong and growing? What are the biggest hassles that tourists experience here in the Philippines when it comes to traveling by air, sea and land today?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Dredging Of 870-Meter Stretch Of Las Piñas City River Completed

June 6, 2026June 5, 2026carlocarrasco

Recently in Las Piñas City, the City Government and its City Environment and Natural Resources Office (CENRO) successfully completed the dredging and desilting of the 870-meter stretch of Las Piñas which is crucial as the rainy season has officially started, according to a news report by Manila Bulletin. This was done to prevent potential flooding while also improving the flow of water.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

As part of its preparations for the rainy season, the Las Piñas City government has completed dredging and desilting operations along an 870-meter stretch of the Las Piñas River, reinforcing its commitment to flood mitigation and environmental protection.

The cleanup, led by the City Environment and Natural Resources Office (CENRO), covered portions of Barangays Pulanglupa Uno, Pulanglupa Dos, and Manuyo Dos.

The initiative aims to improve water flow, remove accumulated silt and debris, and reduce the risk of flooding in nearby communities.

Mayor April Aguilar personally inspected the ongoing dredging activities to ensure the effective implementation of measures designed to keep waterways clear and functional, especially during periods of heavy rainfall.

According to Aguilar, maintaining unobstructed waterways is a key component of its disaster preparedness program. By removing sediment buildup from rivers and drainage channels, the city hopes to minimize flooding and protect residents and properties from the effects of severe weather.

She emphasized that similar environmental and flood-control initiatives will continue through CENRO as part of the city government’s long-term strategy to safeguard communities and preserve the environment.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: If you are a resident of Las Piñas City, what is your reaction to this development? Do you think the City Government and the CENRO are doing good enough to prevent flooding this new rainy season?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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For more South Metro Manila community news and developments, come back here soon. Also say NO to fake news, NO to irresponsible journalism, NO to misinformation, NO to plagiarists, NO to reckless publishers and NO to sinister propaganda when it comes to news and developments. For South Metro Manila community developments, member engagement, commerce and other relevant updates, join the growing South Metro Manila Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/342183059992673

Philippines’ Bid For United Nations Security Council Seat Rejected

June 5, 2026June 4, 2026carlocarrasco

The Philippines, which previously supported the creation of a Palestinian state and discussed cooperation with the Islamic terrorist regime of Iran, badly lost in its bid for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as only forty-nine nations voted for them, according to a news report by GMA News. One hundred and forty-two other nations chose Kyrgyzstan over the Philippines during the fourth round of voting.

It should be recalled that no less than Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., himself told the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) last March that the Philippines is a voice for principled peace and expressed confidence that the nation has an advantage in its bid for a UNSC non-permanent seat.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA News report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines failed in its bid to attain a seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a non-permanent member.

Zimbabwe, Austria, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, and Kyrgyzstan were named new members of the UNSC, which can issue legally binding resolutions that may include military action, economic sanctions, and deployment of peacekeeping operations.

A fourth round of votes was cast for UNSC members to choose between the Philippines and Kyrgyzstan, in the Asia-Pacific Group, after they failed to reach the required two-thirds of the majority.

Kyrgyzstan eventually achieving the necessary two-thirds majority and securing its first-ever Security Council seat by 142 votes to 49.

The remaining 10 members are elected, with five new members joining every year. This year, one comes from the Africa Group, one from the Latin American and Caribbean Group, one from the Asia-Pacific Group, and two from the Western European and Others Group.

Zimbabwe will replace Somalia and Trinidad and Tobago will replace Panama, while Portugal and Austria will replace Denmark and Greece. Kyrgyzstan will replace Pakistan.

Bahrain, Colombia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Latvia and Liberia will continue to serve as non-permanent members of the Security Council until the end of 2027.

The Permanent Members are: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The rest of the non-permanent members are: Bahrain, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Latvia, and Liberia.

Last March, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made a personal pitch for the Philippines’ candidacy for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations (UN) Security Council, saying the country is ready to contribute as a voice of balance among the world’s nations and as a “voice for principled peace.”

Marcos Jr. expressed confidence that the Philippines has an advantage in its bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

As a concerned citizen, I do not like what the Philippines did at the wicked United Nations and on other international affairs. Apart from supporting the creation of a Palestinian state, their diplomats formalized a mechanism to boost bilateral cooperation with the Palestinians (which practices apartheid). When the ASEAN Summit was hosted in Cebu province, the Philippines acted as if it was a highly credible player on global diplomacy (click here and here). The Philippines deplored Israel’s strike on Qatar which made them look like they were defending the Hamas terrorists in Doha.

The loss at the UN is the latest setback for the Philippines and 2026 has been a pretty bad year so far. Apart from diplomacy, the Philippines is experiencing weakening economic growth, rapid inflation and it remains very vulnerable on energy as it imports most of its oil from the Middle East. The warning signs about the national economy are only growing.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you consider the Philippines a highly credible participant in international affairs? Do you think the Philippines deserves a seat at the United Nations Security Council under the current administration?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines And Japan To Discuss Surface-To-Ship Missile Exports

June 3, 2026June 1, 2026carlocarrasco

Following the recent meeting between Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Philippines Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro in Singapore, the two nations will soon discuss the export of Japanese-produced surface-to-ship missiles to the Philippines which itself has been harassed a lot by Communist China at sea, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

It should be recalled that Japan successfully tested the Type 88 surface-to-ship system during the Balikatan exercise held in the Philippines and it has been considering exporting it to the nation for its defense enhancement.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA article. Some parts in boldface…

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro affirmed Sunday that talks will be launched on the export of surface-to-ship missiles from Japan to the Southeast Asian nation.

Koizumi revealed this in talks with reporters after holding a meeting with the Philippine defense chief in Singapore earlier in the day.

Type-88 surface-to-ship guided missiles of Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force (SDF) are expected to be a candidate.

The Philippine side is believed to have shown an interest in procuring the missiles as the Japanese Self-Defense Forces used them in the Balikatan multilateral exercises conducted in Manila between April and May.

The SDF, which had taken part in the annual exercises organized by the United States and the Philippines as an observer since 2012, joined the drills on a full scale for the first time this year following the entry into force of the Japan-Philippine reciprocal access agreement in September 2025.

The possible procurement of Type-88 missiles is expected to help reinforce the deterrent and response capabilities of the Philippines, which is in confrontation with China in the South China Sea.

Koizumi also said he and Teodoro broadly agreed that Abukuma-class destroyers of Japan’s Maritime SDF will be transferred to the Philippines as soon as they are decommissioned.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think it is inevitable the Philippines will proceed to acquire Type 88 surface-to-ship missile systems from Japan within the year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Japan Commits To Transfer Military Equipment To The Philippines To Enhance Its Defense Capabilities

June 2, 2026May 29, 2026carlocarrasco

The Philippines’ capability to defend itself will be enhanced soon as Japan committed to transfer crucial military equipment to them as part of the defense cooperation, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

Japan has pledged to beef up its defense cooperation with the Philippines through the provision of military equipment and technology aimed at enhancing the Philippine forces’ capabilities.

The commitment was made after a summit meeting between President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo, Japan on Thursday.

In a joint statement, the two nations committed to step up collaboration to facilitate the transfer of defense equipment, including destroyers, TC-90 aircraft and radar systems.

This was in accordance with the two nations’ Agreement concerning the Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and the Official Security Assistance (OSA), a collaborative effort to enhance defense capabilities and strengthen security cooperation.

Takaichi reaffirmed Tokyo’s commitment to contributing to the capacity building of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), especially in the maritime area.

The two leaders vowed to advance cooperation in defense sector to support the development of mutually beneficial industrial capabilities, enhance supply chain resilience, and contribute to interoperability and long-term defense readiness.

The Philippines welcomed Japan’s newly revised Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and its implementation guidelines, acknowledging that such efforts contribute to regional peace and stability.

Marcos and Takaichi recognized that the closer cooperation between their defense authorities in recent years has laid “a robust foundation for their bilateral partnership.”

They agreed to the early convening of the next Philippines-Japan ‘2+2′ (Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting) to strengthen strategic coordination and ensure effective high-level policy discussions.

Maritime cooperation – Both leaders also stressed the need to advance maritime cooperation, considering that the Philippines and Japan are “neighbors connected by the sea.”

They acknowledged that enhancing maritime cooperation, underpinned by respect for international law, promotes peace, stability, and mutual trust.

Marcos also expressed gratitude to Japan over its continued support in enhancing Philippine Coast Guard’s capabilities through the provision of patrol ships.

The two leaders vowed to promote mutual exchanges between the maritime law enforcement agencies through joint training and capacity-building activities aimed at ensuring maritime safety and upholding the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines will be better in defending itself once it receives military equipment from Japan?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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SBMA Adjusts Bidding Timeline For Subic Bay International Airport

June 2, 2026May 29, 2026carlocarrasco

With the window remaining open for bidders to challenge Cerberus’ unsolicited offer for the Subic Bay International Airport (SBIA), the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA) officially adjusted the bidding timeline, according to a news report by the Manila Standard. Previously, the SBMA announced a Swiss challenge for the airport development project.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the SBMA’s official announcement. Some parts in boldface…

The Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA) is inviting rival bidders to challenge the unsolicited offer of Cerberus Asia Pacific Investments LLC for the P6.2-billion Subic Bay International Airport (SBIA) development project.

In a recent bid bulletin, the SBMA announced that the issuance and availability of tender documents has been rescheduled to June 17, 2026, moving back from its initial May 18, 2026 timeline.

“The extension ensures technical specifications, financial parameters, and contractual frameworks are comprehensive, accurate, and clear,” the SBMA said.

“This adjustment protects the integrity of the Comparative Challenge process and ensures an equal footing for all participants. No prejudice is caused to any party as documents have not yet been released,” it added.

The asset-management firm Cerberus originally submitted its unsolicited proposal on March 26, 2025, under an Operate-Rehabilitate-Add-Transfer scheme.

The project spans a 25-year concession period—with a possibility for extension—and involves upgrading, expanding, operating, and maintaining the SBIA before its eventual turnover to the SBMA.

The primary goal is to transform the airport into a modern, high-capacity cargo hub that meets international standards and streamlines logistics across the Luzon region.

The comparative challenge will operate under a “right-to-match” mechanism in accordance with the PPP Code Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR).

The original proponent will be given 30 calendar days to match or top the most superior proposal submitted by a challenger. If no challengers emerge, or if the original proponent submits a superior counter-offer, the contract will be awarded to Cerberus.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think several corporate entities overseas will eventually challenge Cerberus’ bid for the Subic Bay International Airport?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Economy Of The Philippines Expected To Rebound In 2nd Half Of 2026

June 1, 2026May 28, 2026carlocarrasco

While the economists of a particular university predict slower economic growth for the Philippines this year, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) see the national economy growing stronger in the 2^nd half of this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY could grow by around 5% in the second half of the year, driven by base effects and an expected acceleration in government infrastructure spending, according to the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P).

“Growth could recover to around 5% in the second half on base effects and a ramp-up in National Government infrastructure spending,” UA&P said in its The Market Call report this month.

Government officials earlier signaled a pickup in disbursements and project implementation as agencies roll out catch-up programs.

UA&P cautioned, however, that growth will remain subdued in the first half amid unresolved issues surrounding last year’s flood control scandal and elevated oil prices.

“Weak gross domestic product growth and faster inflation will weigh on the economy in the first half amid the unresolved flood control scandal and high oil prices from the Middle East conflict,” it said.

“Flip-flopping US-Iran talks may keep fuel prices elevated, hitting the Philippines harder than its ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) peers,” it added.

The Philippine economy expanded by a slower-than-expected 2.8% in the first quarter. This was below the government’s target range of 5-6% for the year.

For the entire year of 2026, UA&P said growth will be slow “but pose some resilience in the face of near-term global and local headwinds that will likely moderate activity in the first half of the year.”

“While cautious business sentiment and lingering geopolitical uncertainties may weigh on household and investment spending, the domestic economy continues to benefit from strong structural drivers such as steady household consumption, a healthy labor market, and sustained remittance inflows,” it added.

Meanwhile, UA&P said that it expects inflation to accelerate further amid second-round effects from the oil shock, “but likely not to (reach) double digits year on year.”

Inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April, marking the second consecutive month that it settled above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2%-4% target. It also breached the BSP’s 5.6%-6.4% forecast for the month.

“The BSP took on a more hawkish tone because of above-estimate inflation, raising rates and its inflation forecast to 6.3% for 2026,” it said.

“We likewise see above-target inflation for the rest of 2026, with the possibility of double-digit inflation rates due to base and second-round effects creeping into succeeding readings,” it added.

As inflation is expected to settle above the target for the rest of the year, UA&P expects the BSP to further tighten.

“Our outlook pencils in 75 basis points (bps) more of rate hikes for this year, bringing the policy rate to 5.25%, especially as the April inflation reading trumped even the BSP’s upper inflation bound,” it said.

The central bank last month raised rates for the first time in nearly two years by 25 bps to 4.5%, with BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. saying the Monetary Board remains open to extending the tightening cycle to anchor inflation expectations.

NO STAGFLATION – Despite weaker growth and high inflation, UA&P said the country is not experiencing stagflation.

“Despite inflation negative commentary from some analysts, the Philippine economy is not in stagflation mode,” it said.

“Inflation, while elevated, will continually trek downwards after a peace deal gets signed, and growth will return when infrastructure spending resumes along with consumer and business confidence,” it added.

Meanwhile, the peso remains under pressure as crude oil prices surge.

“The peso-dollar rate remained under pressure amid the rebound in crude oil prices (i.e., close to $100/barrel for West Texas Intermediate, and $110/barrel for Brent) in April,” it said.

On Tuesday, the local currency closed P61.56 versus the greenback, weakening by 9.5 centavos from its P61.465 finish on Monday.

UA&P said it expects bonds with longer tenors to deliver higher returns amid elevated interest rates, after investors cautiously returned to the local bond market in April.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will truly rebound in the 2^nd half of this year? What do you think will help boost the national economy apart from foreign investments?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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America’s Pax Silica Prompts P7 Billion Power Expansion In New Clark City

May 28, 2026May 25, 2026carlocarrasco

Pax Silica – the United States’ Pax Silica flagship effort on artificial intelligence (AI) and supply chain security that includes the Philippines – prompted the P7 billion investment of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) to ensure a stable power supply for New Clark City in Tarlac province, according to a news report by the Manila Bulletin.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) plans to invest nearly ₱7 billion in a dedicated substation to guarantee a stable power supply for New Clark City in Capas, Tarlac, anticipating a surge in demand from a planned artificial intelligence (AI) industrial hub.

Joshua Bingcang, president and chief executive officer of the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), said the investment promotion agency is currently in talks with NGCP to finalize the project’s details. The grid operator is drafting the alignment plan for the substation, which Bingcang noted should be finalized “soon.”

“Our target with them is by [the] end of 2028, the dedicated power connection should be already installed in New Clark City,” he told reporters last week.

Bingcang added that the BCDA initially offered to fund the project to jump-start construction, with NGCP reimbursing the agency later. However, NGCP declined the offer because the substation is already integrated into its capital expenditures.

Under its Transmission Development Plan 2024 to 2050, NGCP outlined plans to construct the Capas 230-kilovolt (kV) substation to meet the growing power needs of the emerging metropolis. According to the plan, NGCP will allocate ₱6.95 billion to develop the facility.

To facilitate the project, Bingcang said the BCDA is offering land along the Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway (SCTEX) to ensure an unimpeded route for the transmission line into New Clark City. Once operational, the substation is expected to give locators in the AI hub the confidence to manufacture high-value inputs without risking operational pauses due to power shortages.

The AI hub will span more than 1,600 hectares within New Clark City as part of the United States-led Pax Silica partnership, which aims to encourage investment among member countries to bolster the global AI supply chain.

To meet the site’s massive energy requirements, Bingcang said the BCDA expects a foreign investor to build a solar energy project capable of generating up to 500 megawatts. Furthermore, the agency is drafting plans for an embedded power plant to secure baseload power and enhance the hub’s overall energy reliability.

In a separate interview with Business 360, Bingcang disclosed that the BCDA is also negotiating with US investors to construct a dedicated pipeline to transport jet fuel from Subic Bay to Clark International Airport, supporting the logistics needs of companies within the AI hub. The agency is also exploring a separate pipeline along SCTEX to deliver fuel or liquefied natural gas.

Additionally, the BCDA is advancing a public-private partnership (PPP) project for New Clark City’s information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure. According to a bid bulletin published by the PPP Center, the agency aims to conclude the procurement process for a joint venture partner to lay fiber-optic cables across the city by August.

Bingcang noted that all of these infrastructure projects were requested by the US during preliminary talks for the AI hub. Following a visit to the 1,600-hectare site last week, the US will send engineering personnel next month to conduct a site assessment and design a concept plan for the industrial zone.

“Parallel to these technical studies, we will also finalize the commercial arrangement and contractual framework for the project. Within the year, we will be announcing a definitive contract arrangement [with the US],” Bingcang said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Pax Silica will prompt further infrastructure and energy developments related with New Clark City as the initiative develops further? Do you think there is room for nuclear power to considered in the years to come?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economic Warning Signs In The Philippines Grow

May 26, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

With weak economic growth and high inflation already happening, the future is looking dark for the economy of the Philippines and there are warning signs growing, according to a news report by Malaya Business Insight.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Malaya Business Insight report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines is not yet in stagflation, economists said, but slowing growth, high inflation, weak public spending, and the Middle East oil shock are pushing parts of the economy closer to danger.

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said some weaker sectors may already be feeling near-stagflation conditions.

“Near stagflation conditions for some vulnerable, already weak industries. But stronger ones are more insulated,” Ricafort said.

His comment followed President Marcos Jr.’s statement that potential stagflation is among the concerns keeping the government “awake at night” as officials try to contain prices of basic goods and keep the economy running.

Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the country is still not in stagflation, although the risks are rising.

“There are potential stagflation risks, but we’re not yet there,” Ravelas said at the weekly Pandesal Forum in Quezon City on Wednesday.

He said unemployment remains below its long-term average, while the economy continues to post positive growth despite the slowdown.

“If we talk about the average unemployment rate in the Philippines since the 1960s, it’s 7.5 percent. Right now, our numbers are between 5 percent and 5.3 percent,” Ravelas said.

Inflation, however, remains a major threat. Ravelas said consumer prices could climb to 8 percent to 9 percent toward the end of the year, with households likely to feel the sharpest impact from higher fuel, food, and transport costs.

He said the stagflation concern recalls the oil shocks of the 1970s, when energy disruptions pushed prices sharply higher while economic activity weakened.

Ravelas said the more immediate challenge is reviving spending, particularly government spending, to keep growth from losing further momentum.

He said the economy is still feeling the effects of last year’s flood-control scandal, which disrupted public works and slowed disbursements, while the inflationary impact of the US-Iran conflict has added pressure.

Restraining spending now, he said, would be like “shooting ourselves on our foot” because it would further weaken recovery.

“We need to be able to work on improving consumption,” Ravelas said.

He also said the government must convince the public that it is acting decisively to stabilize prices.

“When it comes to fighting inflation, we need to show our countrymen, from a government perspective, that prices are stable. That would be a good opportunity so that they will believe the government is doing something,” he said.

Ravelas noted the country should also invest in upskilling workers to improve employment prospects.

Given the inflation pressure, he said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is likely to take a defensive policy stance and raise interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points, although it must balance inflation control with the need to support growth.

A separate report from the De La Salle University Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics said inflation is being driven mainly by fuel, as higher energy costs feed into transport, logistics, and production.

“Fuel costs have more than doubled since the war began, pushing inflation sharply higher from May through August 2026. We expect inflation to peak at around 8 percent in August,” economists Jesus Felipe, Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, political scientist Susan Kurdli, and research assistant Seth Paolo Paden said in the school’s May economic report.

They said the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has also cut off roughly a third of global fertilizer supply, keeping inflation elevated through the end of 2026.

By early 2027, the report said, energy and fertilizer pressures are expected to ease, with inflation likely to return to the BSP’s 2 percent to 4 percent target band by April 2027 and settle at around 2.8 percent in 2028.

The DLSU economists said the current inflation surge is a supply shock caused by war-related disruptions in global energy and food markets, making interest rate increases an imperfect response.

“Higher interest rates will neither bring oil prices down nor reopen the Strait of Hormuz. What they will do is make borrowing more expensive, slow investment, and constrict household spending,” they said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will eventually fall into a state of stagflation this year? How are you dealing with the higher costs of living nowadays?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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University Economists Say Philippine Economic Growth Could Slow Down To 3.1% This Year

May 23, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

Could the economy of the Philippines be weakening a lot right now? As far as the economists of De La Salle University (DLSU) are concerned, economic growth will be 3.1% this year and they pointed to the effects of the Middle East conflict, rising inflation and other factors, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

De La Salle University (DLSU) economists slashed their 2026 Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.11 percent from 3.79 percent previously, warning that the economy is facing mounting pressure from the Middle East conflict, elevated inflation, and lingering domestic vulnerabilities.

If realized, the revised forecast would mark the country’s weakest annual economic growth post-pandemic, worse than the 4.4 percent recorded in 2025 in the aftermath of the flood-control corruption scandal and below the government’s downscaled five- to six-percent target.

In their report on the Philippine economy for May 2026, published on Monday, May 18, DLSU economists Jesus Felipe, Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, and Seth Paolo Paden, together with political science professor Susan Kurdli, said the downgrade reflected “three converging pressures on the economy.”

These include the Middle East conflict disrupting oil supply and pushing energy prices higher, the risk of tighter monetary policy should inflation persist, and the emerging pass-through of higher fertilizer costs to food prices.

“The combination of all three explains why the growth outlook has deteriorated more sharply than previously expected,” the report read.

The economists noted that the economy had already slowed sharply to 2.81 percent in the first quarter, which they described as “the last reading to reflect pre-shock normalcy” before the full impact of the Middle East conflict filtered through fuel prices, inflation, and fertilizer supply disruptions.

DLSU expects growth to slow further to 2.8 percent in the second quarter and 2.3 percent in the third quarter before recovering to 4.53 percent in the fourth quarter on the back of government catch-up spending, overseas Filipino workers’ (OFWs) remittances, and an eventual recovery in investments should geopolitical pressures ease.

The report warned that the war had exposed the Philippines’ structural vulnerabilities, particularly its heavy dependence on imported petroleum, fertilizer-sensitive food production, and a fragile investment environment already weighed down by domestic political issues even before the external shock emerged.

Medium-term growth is projected to recover to 3.93 percent in 2027 and 5.71 percent in 2028, driven by easing energy prices, the expected shift toward monetary accommodation, election-related spending, and the ramp-up of the Pax Silica semiconductor industrial hub. Still, both projections remain below the government’s downgraded growth targets.

For 2026, DLSU expects private consumption growth at 4.93 percent, government expenditure at 4.89 percent, exports at 4.51 percent, and imports at 5.62 percent. Gross fixed capital formation, however, is forecast to contract by 1.99 percent, reflecting weak investor confidence, slowing bank lending, and elevated geopolitical risks.

On the supply side, agriculture, forestry, and fishing are projected to grow just 0.2 percent this year, while industry is expected to expand 1.24 percent and services 4.38 percent.

The economists also warned that inflation would remain “elevated through the end of 2026” as higher fuel costs spill over into transport, logistics, and food prices. The report expects inflation to peak at around eight percent by August before easing back within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) two- to four-percent target band by April 2027.

DLSU also expects the peso to weaken further this year, projecting the currency to hit around ₱63.5 against the United States (US) dollar by August due to rising oil import costs and negative real interest rates before recovering in succeeding years.

The economists argued that peso depreciation may provide limited support to the economy because most Philippine exports and imports are priced in US dollars under the dominant currency pricing system.

“The short-run effect of depreciation tends to be: stronger on import prices; weaker on export volumes; more inflationary; [and] less expansionary for net exports than the textbook case,” the report said.

The report explained that because Philippine exports—particularly electronics and global value chain-related products—contain substantial imported inputs, peso depreciation could raise production costs while delivering only limited gains to export volumes.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has no room left to find ways to boost economic growth this year? What do you think the national government should do to stimulate the economy?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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