gross domestic product (GDP) – Author Carlo Carrasco

Philippine Peso Could Land At P59.70 To The US Dollar By End Of 2026

February 19, 2026February 12, 2026carlocarrasco

With its own analysis of varied economic factors, Metrobank stated that the Philippine Peso could end up at a rate of P59.70 to the US Dollar by the end of this year, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news article of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PESO may settle at P59.70 against the dollar by end-2026 on expectations of an economic rebound driven by improved investor confidence, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) said.

In a commentary dated Feb. 10, Metrobank trimmed its peso forecast for end-2026 to P59.70 a dollar from P60.80 previously. It likewise projects the peso to end 2027 at P58.50 versus the greenback, from its earlier estimate of P58.90.

“(A)n anticipated economic growth rebound and improved investor confidence, thanks to better government spending, could support the peso,” it said.

If the bank’s 2026 forecast holds true, the local unit would end the year weaker than its P58.79 finish against the dollar on the last trading day of 2025.

The lingering effects of the flood control corruption scandal and uncertainties in the global market pushed the peso to test new lows at the start of the year.

On Jan. 15, it closed at P59.46 per dollar, breaking the previous all-time low of P59.44 recorded just the day prior.

However, it has recently strengthened amid a weak dollar. On Wednesday, the local unit hit a near four-month high after closing at P58.29 versus the greenback, up 24 centavos from its P58.53 finish on Tuesday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

Meanwhile, Metrobank noted that the peso could struggle to regain further strength as the country’s current account is projected to remain at a shortfall this year.

“Still, the projected current account deficit this year — although narrower than last year’s — would cap the peso’s strength,” it said.

Based on the latest central bank data, the current account balance stood at a $12.5-billion deficit by the end of the third quarter. This was equivalent to -3.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Peso could perform better against the US Dollar and end up better than what Metrobank estimated? Do you think a weaker Peso would be very helpful to the exporters?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

2025 Foreign Investments Fall Down 50.1%

February 19, 2026February 13, 2026carlocarrasco

With the final economic numbers of 2025 counted, it has been confirmed that approved foreign investments in the Philippines fell down by more than 50%, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news article of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

APPROVED foreign investments in the Philippines plunged by 50.1% year on year to P272.38 billion in 2025, its sharpest fall in five years, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday.

Preliminary data from the PSA showed that the value of foreign commitments approved by the country’s investment promotion agencies (IPA) in 2025 was lower than P546.19 billion in 2024.

This was the steepest drop in foreign investments since the 71.3% drop recorded during the pandemic in 2020. By value, this was the lowest amount of approved foreign investments since the P241.89 billion recorded in 2022.

Singapore was the top source of investment pledges for 2025 after committing P92.78 billion, or 34.1% of the total. It was followed by the Netherlands with P35.98 billion (13.2% share) and Japan with P34.03 billion (12.5%).

Analysts attributed the sharp drop in foreign investment pledges to the sluggish investor confidence in the Philippines arising from global trade uncertainties, natural disasters and the flood control corruption scandal.

“In a nutshell, the decline in approved foreign investment pledges in 2025 was driven by a mix of weaker investor confidence due to governance and corruption issues, global economic uncertainties, cautious corporate behavior, and an unusually high base of comparison from the previous year,” said Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development.

Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said uncertainty over the US tariffs may have also dissuaded foreign investors from setting up operations in the Philippines.

The United States imposed a 19% tariff on most Philippine goods beginning Aug. 7, 2025.

“Similarly, weaker growth prospects from repeated natural disasters and the flood control scandal may have encouraged foreign companies to scrap or defer their investment plans in the country,” Mr. Agonia said in an e-mail.

The Board of Investments (BoI) approved P150.34 billion worth of investment pledges in 2025, accounting for 55.2% of the total. It was followed by the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) with investment pledges worth P107.06 billion (39.3% share), and the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) with P7.01 billion (2.6%).

For 2025, about 45% or P122.48 billion of the total approved foreign investments will go to the energy sector, followed by manufacturing with P81.41 billion (29.9% share) and real-estate activities with P26.31 billion (9.7%).

In 2025, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon) cornered around P100.43 billion worth of these investment pledges. Central Luzon will get P70.74 billion while the Bicol Region got P50.76 billion.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines still has a lot of work to do and many challenges to resolve before it could convince foreign investors to come in? Do you think the national government is doing good enough to make the country attractive to foreign investors again?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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ADB Says Philippine Economy Could Grow Around 6% In 2027

February 7, 2026February 2, 2026carlocarrasco

In its latest economic analysis, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says that the economy of the Philippines could grow by about 6% in 2027 provided that investments – both public and private – would regain strength, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY could return to around 6% growth by 2027 if public and private investments rebound, according to Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries.

“I think (the drivers are a) kind of a little of everything, but return to high investment, public and private, I think would be, to me, the key driver,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an event on Jan. 23.

Last December, the ADB slashed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5% for 2025, from 5.6% previously. For 2026, the ADB trimmed its GDP projection to 5.3% from 5.7% previously.

This comes after a corruption scandal dampened government spending, household consumption, investor confidence and economic activity last year.

The ADB will release its updated economic outlook in April, which will include a 2027 growth forecast.

Mr. Jeffries warned that the cut in Department of Public Works and Highways’ (DPWH) budget this year, could trigger a “big slowdown” in locally funded projects.

“I guess the main variable for 2026 was how fast does the public investment recover? We were thinking maybe two quarters, so it’ll start reviving,” he said.

In a meeting with Public Works Secretary Vivencio “Vince” B. Dizon in December, Mr. Jeffries said they raised concerns about “paralysis,” where key projects risked getting stuck.

“What we’ve heard is they’re trying to make sure the priority projects are not stuck and keep moving forward quickly. I think it’s a twofold exercise,” he said. “It’s cleaning up the problem while full steam ahead on some of the other projects that weren’t a problem.”

Mr. Dizon earlier said the DPWH aims to boost spending while ensuring funds are used wisely and focus on prioritizing the “basics” such as road and bridge maintenance and unfinished projects. The agency’s target spend is set between P200 billion and P250 billion for the first quarter, he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Jeffries said the Philippines must raise the share of exports in the economy to support long-term growth, as well as diversify its base, and boost resilience.

“It’s not something that happens overnight. It’ll be a combination of policies and attracting investment and improving the business environment and all of those things combined,” Mr. Jeffries said. “But neighbors have done it and the Philippines can do that.”

He noted the Philippines was shielded from external shocks, largely because exports remain a relatively small part of the economy.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the ADB’s analysis for the Philippines is correct? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough strength to grow by at least 6% in 2027?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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A Lot More Filipinos Searched For Accommodations In Vietnam In 2025

February 3, 2026January 28, 2026carlocarrasco

While the Philippines continues to endure difficulties on attracting foreign tourists (click here and here), statistics of the global travel platform Agoda revealed that a lot more Filipinos searched online for accommodations in Vietnam, according to a travel article by VnExpress.

It is recalled that Vietnam itself achieved an all-time high of 21.2 million foreign tourist arrivals counted in 2025 and among them are more Filipino visitors. Already operating are direct flights between Manila and Ho Chi Minh City.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the travel article of VnExpress. Some parts in boldface…

Travelers from the Philippines showed the strongest interest in visiting Vietnam in 2025, with accommodation searches rising 86% year-on-year, according to travel platform Agoda.

The trend was consistent with official tourism data. The number of Filipino visitors to Vietnam reached 482,173 in 2025, up 81.3% from 2024, according to the General Statistics Office.

Air connectivity between the two countries has also improved, with several carriers launching new direct routes.

In July last year, Philippine Airlines began operating a Manila-Da Nang service with three flights a week. A month later, Vietjet opened the Ho Chi Minh City-Manila route, offering five round-trip flights per week.

“Growing international interest suggests Vietnam is consolidating its position as a leading regional destination, benefiting from improved connectivity, visa policies and diversified travel experiences,” said Vu Ngoc Lam, country director at Agoda Vietnam.

Vietnam welcomed a record 21.2 million international visitors in 2025, up 20.4% from the previous year and the highest total on record.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think a lot more Filipinos will visit Vietnam this year as the direct flights continue? What is it about Vietnam that captures the interests of foreign travelers? If you have been to Vietnam as a tourist, how much did you spend per day there?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines 2025 GDP Growth Lands At 4.4%

January 30, 2026January 29, 2026carlocarrasco

After much anticipation, the full gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the Philippines registered final pace of 4.4% for the whole year of 2025, according to a Manila Standard business news report.

For insight, the 4.4% 2025 GDP growth is even lower than what others anticipated (click here and here). It should be recalled that GDP growth in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters of last year showed clear signs of economic weakness. The said weakness is connected with the flood control corruption scandal that rocked the nation.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of Manila Standard. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy expanded 4.4 percent in 2025 as a sharp slowdown in the final three months of the year dragged down the annual performance, government data showed on Thursday.

The gross domestic product grew 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter, marking the weakest quarterly expansion in five years. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said the industrial sector contracted by 0.9 percent during the period, while gross capital formation, a measure of investment, tumbled 10.9 percent.

Wholesale and retail trade, financial activities and public administration remained the primary drivers of growth during the October to December period.

Public administration and defense led the gains with a 7.9 percent increase, followed by financial and insurance activities at 5.6 percent and trade at 4.6 percent.

For the full year, the services sector led the economy with a 5.9-percent expansion, while agriculture, forestry and fishing grew 3.1 percent. The industrial sector recorded a modest 1.5 percent increase for all of 2025.

Consumer spending, which traditionally anchors the Philippine economy, rose 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter and 4.6 percent for the full year. Government spending saw a significant annual jump of 9.1 percent despite the year-end cooling.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to bounce back strongly this year and achieve 5% growth later? Do you think the reforms being implemented by the national government will create positive economic results soon? Are you convinced that the flood control corruption scandal turned off a lot of foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Trump Delivers Largest Tax Refund Season in American History

January 28, 2026January 27, 2026carlocarrasco

While it is true that the economy of the United States is indeed growing, there are still a lot of Americans struggling financially. As such, the promised tax relief by US President Donald J. Trump is crucial for millions as the new tax season has started. The White House officially announced the largest tax refund in the nation’s history and there is professional feedback to support it.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the White House announcement. Some parts in boldface…

As tax season kicks off, millions of Americans are poised to receive significantly larger tax refunds thanks to President Donald J. Trump’s landmark Working Families Tax Cuts Act — which every Democrat in Congress opposed.

The historic legislation is delivering the biggest tax refund season ever, with average refunds projected to rise by $1,000 or more this year due to its transformative policies.

*Reference from the White House announcement.*

Economists and financial experts agree — 2026 will mark an unprecedented year for tax refunds:

USA TODAY: “The average refund in 2025 was $2,939, IRS data showed. This year, refunds could be as much as 30% more due to new provisions from President Donald Trump’s mega tax and spending bill, according to James Knightley, chief international economist at Dutch bank ING.”

CBS News: “Many Americans could see heftier tax refunds next year when they file their 2025 tax returns, largely due to new provisions enacted through the Republicans’ ‘one big, beautiful bill’ act that are retroactive to the start of the current year, according to an analysis from Oxford Economics. Total taxpayer savings could amount to an additional $50 billion through bigger tax refunds or a cut in their 2026 taxes…A $50 billion boost in tax refunds would represent an 18% increase from the $275 billion in refunds the IRS sent this year to nearly 94 million taxpayers who overpaid on their 2024 federal tax returns.”

The Wall Street Journal: “Refunds on average are expected to come in $1,000 higher than usual this year, according to a study by investment firm Piper Sandler.”

Business Insider: “The Tax Foundation estimates that the average tax refund will grow from $3,052 in 2024 to $3,800 for tax year 2025. Depending on your income and circumstances, you might get even more back.”

CNBC: “Tax experts and analysts have agreed that many filers will see bigger refunds… ‘Overall, we’re expecting these changes to increase refunds by 15% to 20% on average,’ Heather Berger, a U.S. economist with Morgan Stanley said…”

President Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts Act provides broad-based tax relief for hardworking Americans, with the average taxpayer expected to see nearly $4,000 in total tax savings in 2026. Key provisions of the bill include No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime, No Tax on Social Security, a deduction for auto loan interest on Made-in-America vehicles, and much more — putting more money back in the pockets of families, workers, and seniors.

For details about the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) and the Working Families Tax Cuts, click here and here.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think this new tax refund season will be very helpful to Americans who are struggling with making ends meet? Have you paid close attention to the details within the Working Families Tax Cuts and the One Big Beautiful Bill already? How many families in your local community have been anticipating the new tax refunds from the Trump administration? Do you think the new tax refunds will be able to boost gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 5% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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IMF Trims Philippines Economic Growth Projections For 2026 And 2027

January 27, 2026January 20, 2026carlocarrasco

As far as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is concerned, issues of corruption and climate disruptions are enough to convince them to project economic growth of the Philippines at a slower pace not just for this year but also for next year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

Washington-based multilateral lender International Monetary Fund (IMF) has tweaked downwards its economic growth projections for the Philippines this year and the next, following its more somber outlook for 2025 amid corruption allegations and climate disruptions.

According to the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook (WEO), Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) is now seen expanding at a slower 5.1 percent, down from its earlier forecast of 5.4 percent—both of which fall short of the country’s already lowered target of at least 5.5 percent.

Despite the cut, the IMF’s forecast remains slightly more optimistic than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) assumption of a 4.6 percent growth rate, which the central bank has attributed to a loss of confidence tied to governance concerns.

For 2026 and 2027, the IMF also trimmed its growth forecasts to 5.6 percent from a previous 5.8 percent, and to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent, respectively. The central bank’s projection of 5.4 percent for 2026 stands lower than the IMF’s forecast, while its 6.2 percent forecast for 2027 is higher.

These projections still fall within the revised targets, based on National Socioeconomic Planner Arsenio M. Baliscan’s lower growth assumptions. Baliscan expects growth to clock in at five to six percent in 2026, and 5.5 to 6.5 percent in 2027—both lowered from the earlier goals of six to seven percent.

According to the IMF, the downward adjustment for 2026 and 2027 “reflects the carryover impact from a downward revision in the IMF’s growth forecast for 2025—from 5.4 to 5.1 percent—and a slower pace of capital accumulation.”

It noted that the slashed GDP growth forecast for 2025 reflects the output slump in the third quarter of 2025 “amid recent corruption allegations and climate shocks impacting economic activity in the second half of the year.”

To recall, the Philippine economy expanded by four percent in the third quarter of 2025—the weakest in four and a half years.

Looking ahead, output expansion could accelerate slower than expected mainly due to the potential “escalation of trade restrictions and prolonged uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections.”

“On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms can boost investment and foreign direct investments (FDI), increase fiscal multipliers and boost potential growth,” the lender said.

What would drive the economy in the medium term is robust private consumption and higher investment, the IMF said, “supported by monetary policy easing and the authorities’ recent policy initiatives to support private investment.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can somehow grow faster than what the IMF projected for 2026 and 2027? Do you think foreign investors have been turned off by the flood control corruption scandals?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Trump’s America Urges Allies To Increase Defense Spending To 5% Of GDP

January 25, 2026January 24, 2026carlocarrasco

Under the leadership of US President Donald J. Trump, America’s new defense strategy urged its allies and partner to increase their defense spending to 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP), according to a news report by Kyodo News. This latest development could result in a chain of events in which American allies will not only spend more but also act more responsibly when it comes to securing their respective nations.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Kyodo News report. Some parts in boldface…

A new U.S. defense strategy released Friday urges all American allies and partners to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic product and be more responsible for their own national security.

Highlighting President Donald Trump’s “America First” and “peace through strength” agenda, the Pentagon’s policy document says they have a bigger role to play, but not as “the dependencies of the last generation,” as the United States needs to prioritize defending its homeland and its interests throughout the Western Hemisphere.

“We will advocate that our allies and partners meet this standard around the world, not just in Europe,” says the first National Defense Strategy since Trump’s return to the office a year ago, referring to the 5 percent defense target.

“As our allies do so, together with the United States, they will be able to field the forces required to deter or defeat potential adversaries in every key region of the world, even in the face of simultaneous aggression,” it says.

NATO members have already pledged to meet Trump’s demand to increase defense spending from 2 percent to 5 percent of GDP by 2035. The new NATO target is composed of 3.5 percent for core military spending and an additional 1.5 percent for security-related spending.

As the document praises Europe and South Korea for committing to raising their defense expenditures since Trump’s return to office, it appears inevitable that other major U.S. allies, including Japan, will face increased pressure from his administration to follow suit.

On par with the National Security Strategy, released by the White House in December, the key defense document touches on China and its fast-paced military buildup.

But the tone is softer compared to previous versions.

It says the second Trump administration’s approach is to deter China in the Indo-Pacific region through strength, “not confrontation.”

In the 34-page document, there is also no mention of Taiwan, the self-ruled island that China regards as its own territory and around which it has been stepping up military pressure.

“President Trump seeks a stable peace, fair trade and respectful relations with China, and he has shown that he is willing to engage (Chinese) President Xi Jinping directly to achieve those goals,” the document says, adding that Washington’s goal is not to dominate China.

“Rather, our goal is simple: To prevent anyone, including China, from being able to dominate us or our allies,” it says.

As part of efforts to meet that end, the U.S. military will erect a “strong denial defense” along the first island chain in line with the security strategy, according to the defense blueprint.

The island chain runs from the Japanese archipelago, through Taiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, encircling China’s coastal waters.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the new American strategy will create a huge impact on how the allies will defend their respective nations? Do you think this will lead to the containment of Communist China’s aggression on the Indo-Pacific? Do you think the new strategy could lead to more stability in both Asia and Europe?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Attracted 5.94 Million Foreign Tourists And 543K Overseas Filipinos In 2025

January 22, 2026January 22, 2026carlocarrasco

Finally, the Department of Tourism (DOT) revealed that 5.94 million foreign tourists and over 543,000 returning overseas Filipinos arrived in the Philippines in 2025 resulting in tourism revenue of P694 billion, according to a news release by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

For insight, the Philippines attracted 5,940,975 foreign visitors in 2025 which is 8,375 less compared with 2024’s foreign visitors. Ultimately, the Philippines is still behind many of its Southeast Asian neighbors on international tourism for 2025.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines recorded 6.4 million foreign visitors and returning overseas Filipinos in 2025, generating an estimated PHP694 billion in tourism receipts, the Department of Tourism (DOT) said Tuesday.

Citing Bureau of Immigration data, the DOT said 5,940,975 were foreign visitors, including cruise passengers and categories not fully captured in eTravel.

Another 543,085 were returning overseas Filipinos, bringing total inbound arrivals to 6,484,060.

The DOT said preliminary international visitor spending was estimated at PHP694 billion.

While arrivals remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2019, the DOT said the outcome was achieved despite global and domestic challenges, including travel alerts from key markets and fiscal constraints.

The agency said tourism performance should not be measured by arrivals alone, citing strong domestic travel, value creation and job generation.

Guided by the National Tourism Development Plan 2023–2028, the DOT said it remains focused on improving connectivity, safety, workforce skills and service standards.

For insight as to why the Philippines is having a lot of trouble attracting visitors from abroad, watch the YouTube videos below.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you agree with the Department of Tourism’s claim that tourism performance should not be measured by arrivals alone while the Philippines keeps on falling behind its Southeast Asian neighbors that attracted a lot more foreign tourists? Do you think the DOT should examine closely how satisfied or dissatisfied foreign tourists really are before they leave the country? Are you tired of seeing the Philippines failing to hit its annual international tourist arrival targets?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nomura Says Philippine Economic Growth May Fall Below 4% In The Near Term

January 15, 2026January 9, 2026carlocarrasco

By pointing to the effects of the flood control corruption scandal as well as other factors, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the economic growth of the Philippines may fall below 4% in the near term, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from business report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth may fall below 4% in the near term as the billion‑peso flood control scandal drags on, affecting government spending and dampening consumption and sentiment, Nomura Global Markets Research said.

“I think going forward, these spillover effects (from the graft scandal) will also expand,” Nomura Chief Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economist Euben Paracuelles told Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News on Thursday.

The scandal, which curbed state spending last year, is expected to dampen household consumption and business investment amid weaker sentiment, he added.

“If the drag is now sort of becoming more broad-based, not just the drop in government spending, you’ll see growth coming potentially below 4%, at least in the near term,” he said.

Nomura now expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 5.3% in 2026 from 5.6% previously. This is still within the government’s recently revised 5-6% target this year.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said growth targets were lowered through 2027, after GDP growth likely slowed to 4.8-5% in 2025 amid the flood control controversy.

The government cut its 2026 projection to 5-6% and to 5.5-6.5% for 2027 from the earlier 6-7% range. The 2028 target was retained at 6-7%.

Mr. Paracuelles anticipates that the government will roll out catch-up spending plans, possibly in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, the Philippines may earn a credit rating upgrade if the government manages to resolve the flood control corruption issue within a year, Mr. Paracuelles said.

“The key for me is 12 months from here, when they need to decide on whether they need to upgrade the Philippines, I think it’s still quite uncertain,” he said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economic growth of the Philippines is indeed slowing down right now? Would you be surprised to see the nation’s economic growth reach less than 4%? Do you think the officials of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) is working sufficiently to restore its credibility?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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