International Monetary Fund (IMF) – Author Carlo Carrasco

IMF Trims Philippines Economic Growth Projections For 2026 And 2027

January 27, 2026January 20, 2026carlocarrasco

As far as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is concerned, issues of corruption and climate disruptions are enough to convince them to project economic growth of the Philippines at a slower pace not just for this year but also for next year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

Washington-based multilateral lender International Monetary Fund (IMF) has tweaked downwards its economic growth projections for the Philippines this year and the next, following its more somber outlook for 2025 amid corruption allegations and climate disruptions.

According to the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook (WEO), Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) is now seen expanding at a slower 5.1 percent, down from its earlier forecast of 5.4 percent—both of which fall short of the country’s already lowered target of at least 5.5 percent.

Despite the cut, the IMF’s forecast remains slightly more optimistic than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) assumption of a 4.6 percent growth rate, which the central bank has attributed to a loss of confidence tied to governance concerns.

For 2026 and 2027, the IMF also trimmed its growth forecasts to 5.6 percent from a previous 5.8 percent, and to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent, respectively. The central bank’s projection of 5.4 percent for 2026 stands lower than the IMF’s forecast, while its 6.2 percent forecast for 2027 is higher.

These projections still fall within the revised targets, based on National Socioeconomic Planner Arsenio M. Baliscan’s lower growth assumptions. Baliscan expects growth to clock in at five to six percent in 2026, and 5.5 to 6.5 percent in 2027—both lowered from the earlier goals of six to seven percent.

According to the IMF, the downward adjustment for 2026 and 2027 “reflects the carryover impact from a downward revision in the IMF’s growth forecast for 2025—from 5.4 to 5.1 percent—and a slower pace of capital accumulation.”

It noted that the slashed GDP growth forecast for 2025 reflects the output slump in the third quarter of 2025 “amid recent corruption allegations and climate shocks impacting economic activity in the second half of the year.”

To recall, the Philippine economy expanded by four percent in the third quarter of 2025—the weakest in four and a half years.

Looking ahead, output expansion could accelerate slower than expected mainly due to the potential “escalation of trade restrictions and prolonged uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections.”

“On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms can boost investment and foreign direct investments (FDI), increase fiscal multipliers and boost potential growth,” the lender said.

What would drive the economy in the medium term is robust private consumption and higher investment, the IMF said, “supported by monetary policy easing and the authorities’ recent policy initiatives to support private investment.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can somehow grow faster than what the IMF projected for 2026 and 2027? Do you think foreign investors have been turned off by the flood control corruption scandals?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Philippines Attracted 5.94 Million Foreign Tourists And 543K Overseas Filipinos In 2025

January 22, 2026January 22, 2026carlocarrasco

Finally, the Department of Tourism (DOT) revealed that 5.94 million foreign tourists and over 543,000 returning overseas Filipinos arrived in the Philippines in 2025 resulting in tourism revenue of P694 billion, according to a news release by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

For insight, the Philippines attracted 5,940,975 foreign visitors in 2025 which is 8,375 less compared with 2024’s foreign visitors. Ultimately, the Philippines is still behind many of its Southeast Asian neighbors on international tourism for 2025.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines recorded 6.4 million foreign visitors and returning overseas Filipinos in 2025, generating an estimated PHP694 billion in tourism receipts, the Department of Tourism (DOT) said Tuesday.

Citing Bureau of Immigration data, the DOT said 5,940,975 were foreign visitors, including cruise passengers and categories not fully captured in eTravel.

Another 543,085 were returning overseas Filipinos, bringing total inbound arrivals to 6,484,060.

The DOT said preliminary international visitor spending was estimated at PHP694 billion.

While arrivals remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2019, the DOT said the outcome was achieved despite global and domestic challenges, including travel alerts from key markets and fiscal constraints.

The agency said tourism performance should not be measured by arrivals alone, citing strong domestic travel, value creation and job generation.

Guided by the National Tourism Development Plan 2023–2028, the DOT said it remains focused on improving connectivity, safety, workforce skills and service standards.

For insight as to why the Philippines is having a lot of trouble attracting visitors from abroad, watch the YouTube videos below.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you agree with the Department of Tourism’s claim that tourism performance should not be measured by arrivals alone while the Philippines keeps on falling behind its Southeast Asian neighbors that attracted a lot more foreign tourists? Do you think the DOT should examine closely how satisfied or dissatisfied foreign tourists really are before they leave the country? Are you tired of seeing the Philippines failing to hit its annual international tourist arrival targets?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

America Eyes Expansion In The Philippines As Demand For Food Intensifies

December 20, 2025December 19, 2025carlocarrasco

Following its aggressive move to export more fresh fruits to the Philippines, the United States under President Donald Trump will ramp up its agricultural exports to the country in connection with strong Filipino demand for food, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

For the newcomers reading this, not even the softened economic growth of the Philippines dampened the Filipinos’ rising demand for food and the young population is a factor behind it. America sees opportunities to export more meat, seafood and other agricultural products to the Philippines.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

The United States (US) is gearing up to increase its agricultural exports to the Philippines, banking on the country’s growing food demand and potential economic growth.

In a Dec. 17 report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said the country was the ninth-largest market for US exporters last year, with agricultural goods valued at $3.5 billion.

The foreign agency expects continued growth in the years to come, especially given the country’s fast-growing economy, which ranked third among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries last year.

While it noted that the Philippine economy “continues to face risks from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties,” the USDA said it will likely remain resilient in the coming year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier lowered its forecast of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 5.4 percent to 5.1 percent this year, before rebounding to 5.6 percent in 2026.

The USDA also cited the easing of inflation and income inequality, driven by a growing population, as fueling demand for more agricultural commodities.

“With its rapid population growth, the Philippines has a young population that increasingly demands imported agricultural products,” it said.

According to the USDA, these market dynamics provide opportunities for US agricultural product exporters to broaden their presence in the country.

The report said products that have the “greatest potential for expansion” include dairy, poultry, ethanol (non-beverage), pork, beef, processed potatoes, confectionery and snack foods, and seafood.

Last year, the US was the top single-country supplier to the Philippines, with a market share of 18 percent, behind ASEAN at 31 percent.

The USDA noted that despite this strong performance, US exporters remain at a disadvantage relative to other exporters due to logistical and tariff challenges.

In this case, members of ASEAN benefit from lower tariffs and cheaper shipping costs, whereas the US is subject to slightly higher taxes under the most-favored nation tariff rates.

On top of this, the USDA said exporters also face higher costs due to government policies such as the sanitary and phytosanitary import clearance (SPSIC)—a document required before shipment of any agricultural product to the Philippines.

“SPSICs are valid for 20 to 90 days, depending on the commodity. The limited validity period adds costs and complicates the timing of exports, among other factors,” the report read.

In this view, the USDA emphasized the need for exporters to keep up to date with market trends to maintain the competitiveness of American products in the local market.

For instance, it noted that young Filipinos are more open to new flavors and experiences, which suppliers could consider when promoting their products.

For the full report of the US Department of Agriculture related to the news story, click here.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Are you looking forward to more American agricultural products plus seafood in the local markets? Do you think exporters of America are on the verge of becoming more competitive globally over the next 24 months?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

IMF Sees Philippine Economy Growing 5.4% This Year And 5.7% Next Year

October 10, 2025October 3, 2025carlocarrasco

By citing factors like weaker-than-expected growth in the first half, the American tariffs on Philippine goods and geopolitical conflicts, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees the economy Philippines growing only 5.4% this year and 5.7% next year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH is expected to moderate this year and in 2026 amid ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions across the globe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

The IMF trimmed its Philippine growth forecast to 5.4% for this year, slightly lower than its 5.5% projection in July.

If realized, gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be at the low end of the National Government’s 5.5-6.5% target band this year.

For 2026, the IMF also cut its growth forecast to 5.7% from 5.9% previously. However, this is below the government’s 6-7% target for next year.

The IMF said the economy is expected to remain resilient, but downside risks warrant “close attention.”

“Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside. The main external risks stem from prolonged global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections,” IMF Mission Head Elif Arbatli Saxegaard said at a briefing after the conclusion of the 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Philippines on Wednesday.

“On the domestic front, more frequent and intense climate shocks would cause notable macroeconomic losses. On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms would support investor confidence and the fiscal multiplier and raise potential growth. Risks around inflation are broadly balanced.”

Ms. Saxegaard said the growth outlook was revised to reflect the weaker-than-expected growth in the first half. For the first half, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Ms. Saxegaard said growth will be affected by the higher tariffs imposed by the US on Philippine goods. The US began imposing a 19% tariff on goods from the Philippines on Aug. 7

“It will weigh on exports and investment,” she said.

She also noted growth will be “supported by monetary easing and recent legislative measures to promote private investment.”

Meanwhile, the IMF sees inflation averaging 1.6% this year, before picking up to 2.6% next year.

“The pickup in inflation is expected to be driven by (the) food and transport crisis,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “And that reflects essentially the decline in negative base effects that have been dragging down inflation this year. So, as those base effects recede, we expect a pickup.”

She said core inflation is expected to “remain muted” at 2.5% in 2026.

“The BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) has room for a slightly more accommodative stance to help bring inflation back to the target faster and reduce economic slack amid elevated downside risks to growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “Policy will need to remain data dependent amidst prevailing uncertainties around the output gap and the neutral rate, and two-sided risks to inflation.”

On Aug. 28, the central bank slashed its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) for a third consecutive time to 5%. It has cut the benchmark by a total of 150 bps since August last year.

CORRUPTION – Asked about recent corruption scandals involving some government projects, Ms. Saxegaard said the IMF will continue to monitor the developments.

“It’s not yet clear whether and how these allegations will impact investor and private sector confidence, as well as their perceptions and behavior,” she said.

The IMF welcomed recent reforms to reduce infrastructure gaps and promote foreign direct investment, but effective implementation is key.

“Enhancing fiscal governance and the rule of law and reducing corruption vulnerabilities are critical for inclusive and sustainable growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said.

The IMF urged the Philippine government to continue implementing gradual fiscal consolidation “to replenish fiscal buffers and support external balance.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the IMF’s prediction of weaker economic growth will turn out true? Do you think the flood control projects scandal and government corruption investigation are turning away foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Citigroup sees Philippine economy expanding by about 6% this year

January 28, 2025January 21, 2025carlocarrasco

In the perspective of Citigroup, Inc. (Citi), the economy of the Philippines will grow this year by around 6%, pointing to the growth of the business process outsourcing (BPO), according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld Some parts in boldface…

CITIGROUP, INC. (Citi) expects the Philippine economy to expand by around 6% this year, partly driven by sustained growth in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector.

“We expect the growth in 2025 to stay within the 6% handle,” Citi Asia South Head Amol Gupte said in an online briefing on Monday.

Citi’s forecast would be at the low end of the government’s 6-8% target for the year.

“The Philippines will continue to benefit from [the BPO industry] and will create a lot of jobs. On moving up the value chain on global capability centers, countries like the Philippines will play a very large role along with India,” Mr. Gupte said.

The information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) industry ended 2024 with $38 billion in export revenue, and 1.82 million full-time employees.

Under the Philippine IT-BPM Industry Roadmap, the target is to grow into a $59-billion industry and increase the full-time employee count to 2.5 million by 2028.

“So, I think it’s really important that the Philippines, as it thinks about the BPO industry, moves up the value chain so that it retains and bring more middle-office kinds of jobs beyond the voice jobs that exist in the tens of thousands,” Mr. Gupte said.

However, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could be a risk to the IT-BPM sector in the Philippines.

“There’s also the risk to that in terms of what AI will do to that industry and whether that will reduce jobs,” Mr. Gupte said.

Meanwhile, Citi South Asia Corporate Banking Head K Balasubramanian said sustained economic growth ensures that Philippine banks are well-positioned to continue to generate profits.

“I think the financial profile of the Filipino banks continues to be very strong, and with 6% growth I think they are well capitalized to look at the opportunities ahead,” he said.

As of end-September 2023, the Philippine banking system’s net profit rose by 6.4% to P290 billion as both net interest and non-interest income grew.

“We just saw the upgraded Philippine sovereign rating that happened in the fourth quarter of last year. And if you look at the impact of that on the Republic of Philippines, as well as the state-owned banks of the Philippines, I think that’s going to be crucially positive because we are now up to BBB+,” Mr. Balasubramanian said.

“(This) means that the ability to access international financing is going to be better and even the cost of the access is going to be better than what it was in the past.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Citgroup is correct about its research on the Philippine economy? Do you think the BPO industry will contribute a lot to the economic growth of the nation this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

IMF sees stronger economic growth for the Philippines in 2026 but warns about risks related to external developments

January 28, 2025January 25, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that it expects the economic growth of the Philippines to get stronger in 2026 but it issue a warning that external developments could prevent it from happening, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY will continue to accelerate from this year to 2026 as domestic demand remains robust, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said, but warned risks are tilted to the downside due to possible external shocks.

At the same time, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said that the Philippines likely failed to hit its 6-6.5% growth goal for 2024, amid typhoons.

“If it hits 6% in the fourth quarter, I’ll be happy with that. I don’t think it will hit 6% for 2024, but I think it will surpass 6% in 2025,” Mr. Recto told reporters on Jan. 16.

For the first nine months of 2024, Philippine growth averaged 5.8%, the same as the IMF’s projection for the full year. Preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on Jan. 30.

In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF kept its GDP forecasts for the Philippines at 6.1% this year and 6.3% for 2026, the same as its projections in October.

These would fall within the government’s 6-8% GDP target for 2025 and 2026.

“Growth for 2025-2026 is projected to be primarily driven by domestic demand, namely consumption and investment,” an IMF spokesperson said in an e-mail.

“Consumption growth will be supported by lower food prices and gradual monetary policy easing,” it added.

Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed household consumption, which accounts for over three-fourths of the economy, jumped by 5.1% in the third quarter from 4.7% a quarter ago.

“Investment growth is expected to pick up on the back of a sustained public investment push, gradually declining borrowing costs and acceleration in the implementation of public-private partnership projects and foreign direct investments (FDI), following recent legislative reforms,” the IMF said.

Gross capital formation, the investment component of the economy, expanded by 13.1% in the third quarter, a turnaround from the 0.3% dip a year ago.

However, the IMF said that the balance of risks to the growth outlook is tilted to the downside, citing external risks.

“Some of the main downside risks include recurrent commodity price volatility, and new supply shocks, which may necessitate tighter monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations,” it said.

The IMF also cited shocks such as geopolitical tensions which could disrupt trade and other financial flows.

“Higher for longer policy rates in advanced economies (could cause) capital outflows, and tighter financial conditions,” it added.

The multilateral institution also cited climate shocks and extreme weather events which would lead to economic losses.

“There are also upside risks to the outlook, including from higher-than-expected growth in private investment through public-private partnerships, higher inward FDI following a faster-than-expected global recovery, or stronger reform momentum,” it added.

INFLATION – Meanwhile, the IMF said it expects inflation to remain within the central bank’s 2-4% target range in the near to medium term. It projects headline inflation to average 2.8% this year and 3% in 2026.

“However, risks are tilted to the upside, as rising geopolitical tensions, extreme climate events, and recurrent commodity price volatility continue to pose upside risks to inflation,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the IMF is correct with its current analysis of the details and economic forecast for the Philippines? Do you think the national government should focus more on attracting new foreign investors and bringing inflation down to build up the economic momentum?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) expresses concern over Philippines’ digital tax and regulations

November 6, 2024October 28, 2024carlocarrasco

The Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) – a Washington, DC-based group whose members include several prominent technology companies – expressed concern over the Philippines’ 12% value-added tax (VAT) on foreign digital services plus rules on online transactions, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

US-based tech giants are worried that the 12-percent value-added tax (VAT) to be collected from digital services providers (DSPs), plus more stringent rules on internet transactions under two new Philippine laws, could make it harder for global firms to operate here.

While this law imposing VAT on DSPs does not discriminate between US non-resident DSPs (or other foreign DSPs) and local DSPs, industry is concerned that (its) implementing rules and regulations, which are currently being developed, could impose unworkable requirements on foreign DSPs similar to what has happened for [non-resident] income-tax payers,” the Washington, DC-based Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) told the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) in an Oct. 17 submission for its 2025 National Trade Estimate (NTE) Report on Foreign Trade Barriers, which also covers digital trade.

CCIA is referring to Republic Act (RA) No. 12023 enacted into law by President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. last October, whose implementing guidelines are due before this year ends in order to collect VAT next year.

CCIA’s member-companies include Amazon, Apple, Cloudflare, Coupang, eBay, Google, Intel, Meta, Opera, Pinterest, Rakuten, TSMC, Uber and X (formerly Twitter), among other global tech firms.

Arlington, Virginia-based Consumer Technology Association (CTA) also flagged RA 12023 as a barrier to US electronic commerce in its USTR submission, citing that this new Philippine law encompasses not only digital goods and marketplaces but also cloud services as well as online advertising, media and search engines.

Back in 2021, the Washington-based multilateral lender International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that slapping digital services taxes (DSTs) may “open the door to retaliatory trade measures” from the US, as it did with India’s DST.

CCIA pointed out to the USTR that implementation of the Income Tax Convention of 1976, in which both the Philippines and the US are parties, has been “challenging” due to “complex and burdensome documentation procedures” or so-called request for confirmation (RFC) required by the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) from income taxpayers.

“The BIR has not established standard processing timelines, and businesses are subsequently required to wait indefinitely without any commitment toward a resolution of the filing. These requests are required of all US non-resident service providers operating in the Philippines and, therefore, this policy is not limited to digital services and impacts members of all industries seeking to provide their services and goods to the Philippine market,” CCIA noted.

CCIA added that the BIR revenue memorandum circular (RMC) issued in January of this year “added further confusion to income-tax obligations of non-resident suppliers of cross-border services.”

Referring to RMC No. 5-2024, CCIA said it “appears to depart from established principles of income taxation of cross-border services (using the place where the services are performed to determine if the transaction is income-taxable) and treats the place of receipt of the services as being crucial in determining the taxability of the transaction.”

As such, CCIA called upon the Philippine government and the BIR, in particular, to hold comprehensive industry consultations, “including with US non-resident service providers, to clarify the income-tax position under Philippine law in line with well-recognized and established international practices.”

Like CCIA, the also Washington-based National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC) bewailed in its comment to the USTR that “there is significant ambiguity on how long the BIR will take to review the RFC and there is no guarantee of a positive outcome.”

“Such requests have to be made by each and every income payor (customers) of US non-resident service providers selling to the Philippines,” NFTC lamented.

Also, CCIA expressed concern about the Internet Transactions Act signed by President Marcos Jr. last year.

“Industry is concerned that the [Internet Transactions Law] would introduce obstructive requirements on electronic commerce platforms to have regulatory oversight such as mandatory collection of valid business certificates of merchants and subsequent submission to the government authority,” CCIA explained

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national government should respond to the concerns of the CCIA? Do you think the digital tax and current laws will turn away technology giants?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Economy of the Philippines to keep growing above 6% in 2024 and 2025

November 1, 2024October 24, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently, an economist predicted that the economy of the Philippines will keep growing above 6% this year and next year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy is expected to remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region, with growth likely settling at above 6 percent for 2024 and 2025.

In his economic and market outlook released on Tuesday, BPI senior vice president and lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. said economic growth will likely hit 6.1 percent this year and further accelerate to 6.3 percent in 2025.

“The Philippine economy has been resilient despite significant headwinds like severe El Niño and devastating typhoons, still managing to grow by 6% in the first half of 2024,” Neri said.

“Looking ahead, the Philippine economy will likely continue to outperform in the region, supported by its strong consumer base,” he added.

Neri expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2 percent in 2024 and further decelerate to 2.8 percent in 2025.

“Inflation is expected to be more manageable in the coming year given the improving prospects of food supply. With El Niño now behind us and the potential increase in production, along with tariff reductions, rice may become more affordable,” he said.

Neri said lower inflation may help boost consumption in the coming year, while election-related spending could also further stimulate economic activity.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to exceed the growth forecasts of the economists for 2024 and beyond? Do you think the Philippines can do a better job on attracting more foreign investors soon?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

IMF sees Philippine economy growing by more than 6% in 2025

October 11, 2024October 3, 2024carlocarrasco

Citing key factors in its research, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the economy of the Philippines will expand by more than 6% in 2025, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy successfully navigated multiple external headwinds in recent years and is expected to grow by over 6 percent next year, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said.

In a briefing at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas office in Manila on Wednesday, IMF Mission Chief Eli Arbatli Saxegaard said the Philippines remained among the best performing economies in the region.

An IMF team led by Saxegaard held meetings in Manila from Sept. 18 to Oct. 2 to conduct discussions on the Philippine economy for the 2024 Article IV Consultation.

Saxegaard said the Philippine economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent this year and will further accelerate to 6.1 percent in 2025.

“This pick-up in growth will be supported by more accommodative financial conditions and higher investment,” she said.

The latest projection, however, was lower than the 6 percent and 6.2 percent previous forecast for 2024 and 2025.

“The downward revision from our July forecast reflects our view that private consumption is going to grow slightly with less momentum. So I would like to highlight that the downgrade is very small, 0.2, and reflects the fact that the first half (of the year) private consumption growth was lower than what we had anticipated. And this might be in part driven by the high food prices,” Saxegaard said.

Despite the revision, Saxegaard said the Philippines continues to be one of the highest growing economies in the region.

“I would also like to highlight that the growth forecast for the Philippines remains one of the highest in the region. It’s 6.1 percent growth for 2025, is a very respectable growth rate… So it’s a very small adjustment reflecting the outturns the first half,” she said.

Downside risks to the country’s growth outlook include a slowdown in major economies that could disrupt trade and financial flows; commodity price volatility and supply shocks; and an escalation of geopolitical tensions or regional conflicts.

Easing of global financial conditions, or faster than anticipated private investment linked to public-private-partnerships and larger foreign direct investment inflows, on the other hand, could stimulate higher growth.

The IMF believes that the Philippine economy holds significant potential with its abundant natural resources, untapped blue economy, and a sizable demographic dividend.

Saxegaard, however, said that unlocking the medium-term growth potential will depend on structural reforms and strengthened social protection programs.

She said priority areas include upgrading infrastructure, making significant investments in healthcare and education, addressing land fragmentation and low productivity in agricultural sector, and enhancing governance.

Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to settle within the government’s target for both 2024 and 2025.

“We believe that the decisive monetary tightening and other measures have helped mitigate inflationary pressures in the Philippines, recent tariff cuts on imported rice and other non-monetary measures helped reduce food prices, and should further reduce headline inflation by the year end,” Saxegaard said.

“For this year, our expectation is that for inflation to average 3.3 percent, and for next year, 3 percent. That would be supported by lower food and core inflation remaining well within the target.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines still has momentum to grow better in 2025 than what the IMF predicted?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

IMF raises Philippine economic growth forecast to 6.2% for 2024

April 30, 2024April 17, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2024 growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.2% which is within national government’s growth range for this year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news article. Some parts in boldface…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its Philippine growth forecast to 6.2 percent for 2024 from its previous estimate of six percent announced last January, citing carryover strength from the last quarter of 2023.

The IMF also expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 6.2 percent in 2025, higher than its January forecast of 6.1 percent.

Based on the April IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released Tuesday, April 16 (Washington time), the IMF also projects Philippine inflation will fall to below four percent this year and in 2025. Its projected year-end inflation is 3.6 percent for 2024 and three percent for 2025 which is within the government target of two percent to four percent.

Meanwhile, the 6.2 percent IMF GDP outlook for 2024 is within the Marcos administration’s growth target of six percent to seven percent but the 2025 projection is below the government target of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent.

IMF’s Resident Representative in the Philippines Ragnar Gudmundsson said in an email that real GDP growth for 2024 was revised slightly to 6.2 percent from six percent in the January WEO because of “carryover from a better-than-expected outturn in the last quarter of 2023.” The local economy grew by 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter 2023, bringing the full-year GDP to 5.6 percent.

As to the 2025 growth outlook, Gudmundsson said the 6.2 percent GDP expansion next year will be “supported by an acceleration in domestic demand and investment.”

“Over the medium term, structural reforms to close infrastructure and education gaps, attract greater FDI (foreign direct investments), and harness benefits from the digital economy should help realize a growth potential of about 6-6.5 percent. These reforms should be complemented by strengthening existing social protection schemes and addressing climate change through a more integrated strategy that includes a carbon pricing scheme,” he said.

Gudmundsson said the 6.2 percent GDP forecast for the Philippines “compares with an average growth rate for ASEAN countries in 2024 of 4.6 percent.”

Based on the latest WEO, the IMF forecast the Asian regional economy will grow by 4.5 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 2025.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippine economy has enough momentum to surpass the 6.2% growth forecast of the IMF for 2024? Do you think inflation in the country will slow down more than what the IMF predicts?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

	Instapundit »… on Trump’s America Urges Allies T…
	The H.A.R.D. Corps (… on A Look Back At The H.A.R.D. Co…
	Instapundit »… on A Lot More American Fruits And…
	Instapundit »… on Varied And Impactful Changes R…
	Instapundit »… on Japan And Italy Agree On Strat…

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: