economic confidence – Page 2 – Author Carlo Carrasco

BSP Eyes Late-2026 Relaunch Of Coin Deposit Machines

July 14, 2026July 7, 2026carlocarrasco

Remember the many coin deposit machines (CoDMs) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) installed in key locations in the Philippines? The BSP is aiming to relaunch the coin deposit machines program before the end of this year, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

It is recalled that almost P1.5 billion worth of coins were deposited before the BSP suspended their program in June of 2025.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA article. Some parts in boldface…

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is aiming to relaunch the operation of coin deposit machines (CoDMs) in Metro Manila before the end of the year.

In a recent media luncheon, BSP Deputy Governor Bernadette Romulo-Puyat told reporters the BSP is targeting the initial relaunch of the existing 25 CoDMs for the last week of October to early November 2026.

“This timeline takes into account the required software enhancements, modifications to the enclosure and hardware components, as well as the calibration, accuracy testing, and end-to-end testing of the existing CoDM units prior to deployment,” Romulo-Puyat said.

CoDMs allow customers to conveniently deposit legal tender coins and directly credit the equivalent amount to their GCash electronic wallets.

To recall, the BSP temporarily suspended the operation of CoDMs last year to review how to re-circulate idle coins.

Following the review, the BSP will relaunch the coin deposit machines as part of its commitment to enhancing its coin recirculation program.

Romulo-Puyat said the BSP partnered with SM to lower the operational costs of the CoDMs.

“The coin retrieval was so expensive, so we found ways for the private sector to be able to bear the cost,” she said.

Aside from the 25 CoDMs earlier deployed in Metro Manila, another 25 will be deployed in other areas next year.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you agree with the Supreme Court’s decision on the law about VAT refund for foreign tourists? Apart from the VAT refund for foreign tourists, what problems that plagued the Philippine tourism industry should the government solve this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Supreme Court Upholds Law Granting VAT Refund To Foreign Tourists

July 12, 2026July 6, 2026carlocarrasco

Remember the law granting value-added tax refund (VAT refund) to foreign tourists signed a few years ago? That law was challenged and recently the Supreme Court of the Philippines upheld the constitutionality of Republic Act 12079 (the act creating a VAT refund mechanism for non-resident tourists), according to a news report by GMA News.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of GMA News. Some parts in boldface…

The Supreme Court (SC) has upheld the constitutionality of a law that grants value-added tax (VAT) refunds on select local purchases by non-resident foreign tourists.

In a 30-page decision, the SC En Banc dismissed a petition challenging the validity of Republic Act 12079, or an act creating a VAT refund mechanism for non-resident tourists, adding Section 112-A to the National Internal Revenue Code.

“Granting VAT refund to foreign tourists was not arbitrarily done. It is a policy decision based on legitimate state interests, i.e. the need to remain competitive as a global tourist destination,” the SC said.

“In fine, foreign tourists may be granted privileges and benefits that are not extended to Filipino citizens, so as long as these distinctions are based on reasonable and justifiable classifications, as in here,” it added.

According to the SC, the VAT refund applies to goods brought from duly accredited stores and taken out of the country within 60 days from purchase. The goods must be priced at least P3,000 per transaction.

Meanwhile, the SC said Section 5 of the law’s implementing rules and regulations limit the refund to retail and tangible goods, including clothing, apparel, electronics, gadgets, jewelry, accessories, souvenirs, food or non-food consumables, and other items intended for personal use.

The petitioner, however, argued that the law violates the constitutional guarantee of equal protection as it excludes Filipino citizens.

For its part, the SC said equal protection does not require identical treatment for all persons.

It said the act also distinguishes foreign tourists from Filipino citizens.

According to the SC, the VAT refund system follows the basic rule of VAT that goods are taxed where they are consumed. If the goods are consumed in the Philippines, they remain subject to Philippine VAT.

Meanwhile, the SC added that VAT refund for foreign tourists is a well-established international practice.

“The Philippines is among the last few countries in Asia to adopt such a system. Our Asian neighbors, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China, and Japan have long implemented this VAT refund mechanism for foreign tourists,” it said.

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BPI Customers Can Withdraw And Deposit Cash At Grocery, Convenience Stores And Other Commercial Joints

July 7, 2026July 2, 2026carlocarrasco

Customers of Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) are able to withdraw and deposit cash at grocery, convenience stores and other commercial joints thanks to the a newly launched campaign between the bank and over a thousand partner stores, according to a news report by GMA News.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of GMA News. Some parts in boldface…

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) on Wednesday launched its “Himala” campaign, allowing customers to withdraw and deposit cash at 1,369 partner stores, including grocery and convenience stores.

The service effectively turns participating outlets into “mini BPI branches,” enabling customers to complete cash transactions without visiting a physical bank branch.

The partner network includes Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc. (RRHI) stores such as Robinsons Easymart, Robinsons Supermarket, Shopwise, The Marketplace, Robinsons Department Store, Toys “R” Us, and Uncle John’s.

The service is also available at non-RRHI outlets, including Amesco, Fitmart GenSan, CVM Pawnshop, Falcor Marketing, Prince Retail, Prince Warehouse, Rodamel Drugstore, Savers Depot, Tacurong Fit Mart Inc., and Tambunting Pawnshop.

Customers can generate a barcode through the BPI app for cash deposits and withdrawals, then present it at any participating store for processing. They may also send the barcode to another person, who can use it to deposit or withdraw cash at a partner outlet.

Customers may deposit or withdraw a minimum of P100 through the partner network. Deposits are limited to P10,000 per barcode and P50,000 per day, while withdrawals are capped at P10,000.

Select services, including account opening and applications for BPI products, are also available through the bank’s network of 8,000 retail partners, which includes pharmacies and gas stations nationwide.

According to BPI Agency Banking head Rally Jereza, the Ayala-led lender is in talks to onboard more partner stores, with the goal of expanding the network to 10,000 outlets within the year.

“For now, I’m satisfied with 8,000 because we want to encourage people to use [the service]. But in terms of expanding, with existing BPI clients, corporate clients… it’s easy to expand. Right now, we just want to be able to maximize all of those footprints,” he said.

Jereza said the initiative also supports BPI’s “May BPI Dito” campaign, which aims to make the bank’s services available in as many locations as possible.

“What began in 2023 as product application points has evolved into a fully integrated banking ecosystem. Every phase—from enabling transactions on tablets to barcode withdrawals and now barcode deposits—was built to ensure safety, simplicity, and trust,” he said.

“This is not just expansion; it is a redefinition of what a bank can be in the digital age,” he added.

BPI said it has onboarded more than one million new-to-bank customers through its agency banking network and aims to increase the figure to 10 million.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? If you are a BPI customer, have you experience the convenience of doing important transactions at the grocery or at the convenience store lately?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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New Philippines Domestic Tourism Program Launched With Over 3,000 Travel Deals

July 4, 2026July 2, 2026carlocarrasco

In what is clearly a serious attempt by the Department of Tourism (DOT) to boost domestic tourism a lot, the new program Discover More To Love was recently launched with more than three thousand travel deals from varied hotels, tour operators and airlines, according to a news report by the Manila Standard.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of the Manila Standard. Some parts in boldface…

The Department of Tourism (DOT) launched a new campaign offering more than 3,000 travel deals from hotels, tour operators, and airlines to boost domestic travel during off-peak months and support local businesses.

The campaign, named “Discover More to Love,” runs from July to November 2026 to stimulate year-round travel, sustain bookings, preserve jobs, and strengthen local economies during the industry’s traditional lean period.

The initiative serves as an extension of the country’s official tourism brand, “Love the Philippines,” rather than a replacement.

Travelers can access discounts of up to 70 percent from more than 70 hotels and resorts through the Hotels Sales and Marketing Association. The campaign also features more than 250 nationwide travel packages alongside discounted fares from carriers Philippine Airlines, Cebu Pacific, AirAsia Philippines, and Sunlight Air.

Online platforms AirAsia MOVE and Klook are providing exclusive deals, while Mastercard offers special payment privileges for cardholders. Travelers can access the promotional room packages, staycation deals, dining credits, and flexible booking options directly through the department’s enhanced website at http://www.tourism.gov.ph.

Tourism Secretary Dita Angara-Mathay said the agency wants to evolve the initiative through feedback from travelers and industry partners.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you support the DOT’s renewed focus on domestic tourism?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines At Risk Of Losing Ground In Global Supply Chain

July 4, 2026June 29, 2026carlocarrasco

If the Philippines fails to address the high costs of energy and the ongoing corruption connected with infrastructure projects, it could lose ground in global supply chains, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES risks losing ground in global supply chains unless it addresses high energy costs and unresolved corruption issues surrounding infrastructure projects, which continue to weigh on investor sentiment, according to UK-based risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.

“The Philippines’ biggest infrastructure challenge is its relatively high cost of energy, which has been exacerbated by the Hormuz crisis,” Laura Schwartz, a senior Asia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in an e-mailed reply to BusinessWorld.

“Following the onset of the crisis, there was some movement in fast-tracking renewable energy projects, but more will be needed,” she added.

The Philippines, which sources at least 90% of its oil supply from the Middle East, has been one of the most affected by the global oil crisis.

Ms. Schwartz also said last year’s corruption scandal — which linked state officials and contractors in substandard or nonexistent flood control projects — may deter companies that are seeking to diversify their supply chains from investing in the Philippines.

“High-profile governance issues, particularly the widespread public works corruption allegations and political jockeying, are one of the top factors leading to investor hesitation in the near term,” she said.

In its 2026 Supply Chain Risk Outlook, Verisk Maplecroft identified the Philippines, Thailand, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay as “rising stars” in the global supply chain.

“Relative to the established hubs, these ‘rising stars’ offer different mixes of sector capability, market openness, regulatory strengths, and labor-risk trajectories for organizations looking to realign their supply chains,” it said in the report released on June 23.

“The businesses that move first — screening these markets now, building supplier relationships before demand spikes, and stress-testing entry strategies against external risk data — will find themselves better positioned to act when faced with disruptive geopolitical realignment, trade restrictions, or conflict outbreaks,” Verisk Maplecroft said.

A third of the world’s busiest ports and airports are vulnerable to disruption amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts, environmental challenges, and domestic security threats, the firm noted.

The closing of the Strait of Hormuz has created near-term headwinds for the Philippines and Thailand, Verisk Maplecroft said.

Despite this, “procurement teams willing to take a longer-term view will find these markets worth their attention,” the company added.

The report cited the Philippines’ strong potential in the global supply chain due to improvements in its market openness, its competitive labor costs, and its young, English-fluent workforce.

“The Philippines performs second-best across the Southeast Asian economies analyzed due to significant improvement in our market openness pillar,” it said.

“Despite lower infrastructure quality and governance challenges, including recent corruption scandals, the Philippines shows notable opportunities in sectors like electronics, auto parts, and food manufacturing,” Verisk Maplecroft said.

Other Southeast Asian economies assessed in the report were Singapore, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Myanmar.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the government of the Philippines has the will to resolve high energy costs and the ongoing corruption on infrastructure projects? Do you think the Philippines could get more affordable oil from places other than the Middle East?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economy Of The Philippines Expected To Rebound In 2nd Half Of 2026

June 1, 2026May 28, 2026carlocarrasco

While the economists of a particular university predict slower economic growth for the Philippines this year, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) see the national economy growing stronger in the 2^nd half of this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY could grow by around 5% in the second half of the year, driven by base effects and an expected acceleration in government infrastructure spending, according to the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P).

“Growth could recover to around 5% in the second half on base effects and a ramp-up in National Government infrastructure spending,” UA&P said in its The Market Call report this month.

Government officials earlier signaled a pickup in disbursements and project implementation as agencies roll out catch-up programs.

UA&P cautioned, however, that growth will remain subdued in the first half amid unresolved issues surrounding last year’s flood control scandal and elevated oil prices.

“Weak gross domestic product growth and faster inflation will weigh on the economy in the first half amid the unresolved flood control scandal and high oil prices from the Middle East conflict,” it said.

“Flip-flopping US-Iran talks may keep fuel prices elevated, hitting the Philippines harder than its ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) peers,” it added.

The Philippine economy expanded by a slower-than-expected 2.8% in the first quarter. This was below the government’s target range of 5-6% for the year.

For the entire year of 2026, UA&P said growth will be slow “but pose some resilience in the face of near-term global and local headwinds that will likely moderate activity in the first half of the year.”

“While cautious business sentiment and lingering geopolitical uncertainties may weigh on household and investment spending, the domestic economy continues to benefit from strong structural drivers such as steady household consumption, a healthy labor market, and sustained remittance inflows,” it added.

Meanwhile, UA&P said that it expects inflation to accelerate further amid second-round effects from the oil shock, “but likely not to (reach) double digits year on year.”

Inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April, marking the second consecutive month that it settled above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2%-4% target. It also breached the BSP’s 5.6%-6.4% forecast for the month.

“The BSP took on a more hawkish tone because of above-estimate inflation, raising rates and its inflation forecast to 6.3% for 2026,” it said.

“We likewise see above-target inflation for the rest of 2026, with the possibility of double-digit inflation rates due to base and second-round effects creeping into succeeding readings,” it added.

As inflation is expected to settle above the target for the rest of the year, UA&P expects the BSP to further tighten.

“Our outlook pencils in 75 basis points (bps) more of rate hikes for this year, bringing the policy rate to 5.25%, especially as the April inflation reading trumped even the BSP’s upper inflation bound,” it said.

The central bank last month raised rates for the first time in nearly two years by 25 bps to 4.5%, with BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. saying the Monetary Board remains open to extending the tightening cycle to anchor inflation expectations.

NO STAGFLATION – Despite weaker growth and high inflation, UA&P said the country is not experiencing stagflation.

“Despite inflation negative commentary from some analysts, the Philippine economy is not in stagflation mode,” it said.

“Inflation, while elevated, will continually trek downwards after a peace deal gets signed, and growth will return when infrastructure spending resumes along with consumer and business confidence,” it added.

Meanwhile, the peso remains under pressure as crude oil prices surge.

“The peso-dollar rate remained under pressure amid the rebound in crude oil prices (i.e., close to $100/barrel for West Texas Intermediate, and $110/barrel for Brent) in April,” it said.

On Tuesday, the local currency closed P61.56 versus the greenback, weakening by 9.5 centavos from its P61.465 finish on Monday.

UA&P said it expects bonds with longer tenors to deliver higher returns amid elevated interest rates, after investors cautiously returned to the local bond market in April.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will truly rebound in the 2^nd half of this year? What do you think will help boost the national economy apart from foreign investments?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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America’s Pax Silica Prompts P7 Billion Power Expansion In New Clark City

May 28, 2026May 25, 2026carlocarrasco

Pax Silica – the United States’ Pax Silica flagship effort on artificial intelligence (AI) and supply chain security that includes the Philippines – prompted the P7 billion investment of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) to ensure a stable power supply for New Clark City in Tarlac province, according to a news report by the Manila Bulletin.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) plans to invest nearly ₱7 billion in a dedicated substation to guarantee a stable power supply for New Clark City in Capas, Tarlac, anticipating a surge in demand from a planned artificial intelligence (AI) industrial hub.

Joshua Bingcang, president and chief executive officer of the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), said the investment promotion agency is currently in talks with NGCP to finalize the project’s details. The grid operator is drafting the alignment plan for the substation, which Bingcang noted should be finalized “soon.”

“Our target with them is by [the] end of 2028, the dedicated power connection should be already installed in New Clark City,” he told reporters last week.

Bingcang added that the BCDA initially offered to fund the project to jump-start construction, with NGCP reimbursing the agency later. However, NGCP declined the offer because the substation is already integrated into its capital expenditures.

Under its Transmission Development Plan 2024 to 2050, NGCP outlined plans to construct the Capas 230-kilovolt (kV) substation to meet the growing power needs of the emerging metropolis. According to the plan, NGCP will allocate ₱6.95 billion to develop the facility.

To facilitate the project, Bingcang said the BCDA is offering land along the Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway (SCTEX) to ensure an unimpeded route for the transmission line into New Clark City. Once operational, the substation is expected to give locators in the AI hub the confidence to manufacture high-value inputs without risking operational pauses due to power shortages.

The AI hub will span more than 1,600 hectares within New Clark City as part of the United States-led Pax Silica partnership, which aims to encourage investment among member countries to bolster the global AI supply chain.

To meet the site’s massive energy requirements, Bingcang said the BCDA expects a foreign investor to build a solar energy project capable of generating up to 500 megawatts. Furthermore, the agency is drafting plans for an embedded power plant to secure baseload power and enhance the hub’s overall energy reliability.

In a separate interview with Business 360, Bingcang disclosed that the BCDA is also negotiating with US investors to construct a dedicated pipeline to transport jet fuel from Subic Bay to Clark International Airport, supporting the logistics needs of companies within the AI hub. The agency is also exploring a separate pipeline along SCTEX to deliver fuel or liquefied natural gas.

Additionally, the BCDA is advancing a public-private partnership (PPP) project for New Clark City’s information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure. According to a bid bulletin published by the PPP Center, the agency aims to conclude the procurement process for a joint venture partner to lay fiber-optic cables across the city by August.

Bingcang noted that all of these infrastructure projects were requested by the US during preliminary talks for the AI hub. Following a visit to the 1,600-hectare site last week, the US will send engineering personnel next month to conduct a site assessment and design a concept plan for the industrial zone.

“Parallel to these technical studies, we will also finalize the commercial arrangement and contractual framework for the project. Within the year, we will be announcing a definitive contract arrangement [with the US],” Bingcang said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Pax Silica will prompt further infrastructure and energy developments related with New Clark City as the initiative develops further? Do you think there is room for nuclear power to considered in the years to come?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economic Warning Signs In The Philippines Grow

May 26, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

With weak economic growth and high inflation already happening, the future is looking dark for the economy of the Philippines and there are warning signs growing, according to a news report by Malaya Business Insight.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Malaya Business Insight report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines is not yet in stagflation, economists said, but slowing growth, high inflation, weak public spending, and the Middle East oil shock are pushing parts of the economy closer to danger.

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said some weaker sectors may already be feeling near-stagflation conditions.

“Near stagflation conditions for some vulnerable, already weak industries. But stronger ones are more insulated,” Ricafort said.

His comment followed President Marcos Jr.’s statement that potential stagflation is among the concerns keeping the government “awake at night” as officials try to contain prices of basic goods and keep the economy running.

Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the country is still not in stagflation, although the risks are rising.

“There are potential stagflation risks, but we’re not yet there,” Ravelas said at the weekly Pandesal Forum in Quezon City on Wednesday.

He said unemployment remains below its long-term average, while the economy continues to post positive growth despite the slowdown.

“If we talk about the average unemployment rate in the Philippines since the 1960s, it’s 7.5 percent. Right now, our numbers are between 5 percent and 5.3 percent,” Ravelas said.

Inflation, however, remains a major threat. Ravelas said consumer prices could climb to 8 percent to 9 percent toward the end of the year, with households likely to feel the sharpest impact from higher fuel, food, and transport costs.

He said the stagflation concern recalls the oil shocks of the 1970s, when energy disruptions pushed prices sharply higher while economic activity weakened.

Ravelas said the more immediate challenge is reviving spending, particularly government spending, to keep growth from losing further momentum.

He said the economy is still feeling the effects of last year’s flood-control scandal, which disrupted public works and slowed disbursements, while the inflationary impact of the US-Iran conflict has added pressure.

Restraining spending now, he said, would be like “shooting ourselves on our foot” because it would further weaken recovery.

“We need to be able to work on improving consumption,” Ravelas said.

He also said the government must convince the public that it is acting decisively to stabilize prices.

“When it comes to fighting inflation, we need to show our countrymen, from a government perspective, that prices are stable. That would be a good opportunity so that they will believe the government is doing something,” he said.

Ravelas noted the country should also invest in upskilling workers to improve employment prospects.

Given the inflation pressure, he said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is likely to take a defensive policy stance and raise interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points, although it must balance inflation control with the need to support growth.

A separate report from the De La Salle University Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics said inflation is being driven mainly by fuel, as higher energy costs feed into transport, logistics, and production.

“Fuel costs have more than doubled since the war began, pushing inflation sharply higher from May through August 2026. We expect inflation to peak at around 8 percent in August,” economists Jesus Felipe, Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, political scientist Susan Kurdli, and research assistant Seth Paolo Paden said in the school’s May economic report.

They said the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has also cut off roughly a third of global fertilizer supply, keeping inflation elevated through the end of 2026.

By early 2027, the report said, energy and fertilizer pressures are expected to ease, with inflation likely to return to the BSP’s 2 percent to 4 percent target band by April 2027 and settle at around 2.8 percent in 2028.

The DLSU economists said the current inflation surge is a supply shock caused by war-related disruptions in global energy and food markets, making interest rate increases an imperfect response.

“Higher interest rates will neither bring oil prices down nor reopen the Strait of Hormuz. What they will do is make borrowing more expensive, slow investment, and constrict household spending,” they said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will eventually fall into a state of stagflation this year? How are you dealing with the higher costs of living nowadays?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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University Economists Say Philippine Economic Growth Could Slow Down To 3.1% This Year

May 23, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

Could the economy of the Philippines be weakening a lot right now? As far as the economists of De La Salle University (DLSU) are concerned, economic growth will be 3.1% this year and they pointed to the effects of the Middle East conflict, rising inflation and other factors, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

De La Salle University (DLSU) economists slashed their 2026 Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.11 percent from 3.79 percent previously, warning that the economy is facing mounting pressure from the Middle East conflict, elevated inflation, and lingering domestic vulnerabilities.

If realized, the revised forecast would mark the country’s weakest annual economic growth post-pandemic, worse than the 4.4 percent recorded in 2025 in the aftermath of the flood-control corruption scandal and below the government’s downscaled five- to six-percent target.

In their report on the Philippine economy for May 2026, published on Monday, May 18, DLSU economists Jesus Felipe, Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, and Seth Paolo Paden, together with political science professor Susan Kurdli, said the downgrade reflected “three converging pressures on the economy.”

These include the Middle East conflict disrupting oil supply and pushing energy prices higher, the risk of tighter monetary policy should inflation persist, and the emerging pass-through of higher fertilizer costs to food prices.

“The combination of all three explains why the growth outlook has deteriorated more sharply than previously expected,” the report read.

The economists noted that the economy had already slowed sharply to 2.81 percent in the first quarter, which they described as “the last reading to reflect pre-shock normalcy” before the full impact of the Middle East conflict filtered through fuel prices, inflation, and fertilizer supply disruptions.

DLSU expects growth to slow further to 2.8 percent in the second quarter and 2.3 percent in the third quarter before recovering to 4.53 percent in the fourth quarter on the back of government catch-up spending, overseas Filipino workers’ (OFWs) remittances, and an eventual recovery in investments should geopolitical pressures ease.

The report warned that the war had exposed the Philippines’ structural vulnerabilities, particularly its heavy dependence on imported petroleum, fertilizer-sensitive food production, and a fragile investment environment already weighed down by domestic political issues even before the external shock emerged.

Medium-term growth is projected to recover to 3.93 percent in 2027 and 5.71 percent in 2028, driven by easing energy prices, the expected shift toward monetary accommodation, election-related spending, and the ramp-up of the Pax Silica semiconductor industrial hub. Still, both projections remain below the government’s downgraded growth targets.

For 2026, DLSU expects private consumption growth at 4.93 percent, government expenditure at 4.89 percent, exports at 4.51 percent, and imports at 5.62 percent. Gross fixed capital formation, however, is forecast to contract by 1.99 percent, reflecting weak investor confidence, slowing bank lending, and elevated geopolitical risks.

On the supply side, agriculture, forestry, and fishing are projected to grow just 0.2 percent this year, while industry is expected to expand 1.24 percent and services 4.38 percent.

The economists also warned that inflation would remain “elevated through the end of 2026” as higher fuel costs spill over into transport, logistics, and food prices. The report expects inflation to peak at around eight percent by August before easing back within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) two- to four-percent target band by April 2027.

DLSU also expects the peso to weaken further this year, projecting the currency to hit around ₱63.5 against the United States (US) dollar by August due to rising oil import costs and negative real interest rates before recovering in succeeding years.

The economists argued that peso depreciation may provide limited support to the economy because most Philippine exports and imports are priced in US dollars under the dominant currency pricing system.

“The short-run effect of depreciation tends to be: stronger on import prices; weaker on export volumes; more inflationary; [and] less expansionary for net exports than the textbook case,” the report said.

The report explained that because Philippine exports—particularly electronics and global value chain-related products—contain substantial imported inputs, peso depreciation could raise production costs while delivering only limited gains to export volumes.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has no room left to find ways to boost economic growth this year? What do you think the national government should do to stimulate the economy?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Counting On Stronger Cooperation With Japan On Investment And Energy Security

May 23, 2026May 21, 2026carlocarrasco

As it is already struggling with weak economic growth and high inflation, the Philippines is looking forward to Japan for stronger cooperation on investment and energy security, according to a news report by Malaya Business Insight.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Malaya Business Insight report. Some parts in boldface…

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the Philippines is counting on stronger cooperation with Japan on investment, energy security, and defense as his administration seeks to keep the economy moving despite high inflation, slower growth, and pressure from the Middle East crisis.

Speaking to Japanese media in Malacañang ahead of his May 26 to 29 state visit to Japan, Marcos said the government remains confident the economy can recover from the recent slowdown, citing continued investor interest and policy measures meant to cushion consumers and businesses.

The economy grew 2.8 percent in the first quarter, slower than 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, while inflation surged to 7.2 percent in April from 4.1 percent in March.

Marcos said the government was trying to keep the “economic machine running” despite “elements of fear” arising from global uncertainty.

“Luckily, I suppose, or at least as I said, we are still continuing to see marked interest in investment in the Philippines,” Marcos said.

“And perhaps this is why. This is because of the policies that we adopted, the incentives that we put out for investors. And so slowly we can see the way through this. Where we will recover through this,” he added.

Marcos said the risk of stagflation, or weak economic growth combined with rising inflation, remains a major concern.

He said the government has rolled out fuel subsidies, cash aid for the transport sector, a price cap on imported rice, and the P20-per-kilo rice program to help contain inflation and ease the burden on consumers.

“We want to keep the system, the economic system, continuing to function. We have done all these measures to keep inflation down,” Marcos said.

The President said his talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi are expected to focus on energy security and defense cooperation, including tensions in the South China Sea and East China Sea.

Marcos said both countries have faced coercive actions and “gray zone” tactics, making adherence to international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea central to the discussions.

He said he would also push for the full implementation of the Reciprocal Access Agreement signed in July 2024 and the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement signed in January.

Marcos said Japan’s participation in this year’s Balikatan exercises marked a significant step in strengthening interoperability among allied forces.

He also said the Philippines expects to benefit from Japan’s easing of restrictions on defense exports, including support for radar systems, aircraft, vessels, information technology sharing, and personnel training.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines cannot grow stronger without the involvement of Japan and its investors? Do you think the Philippines will proceed to acquire anti-ship missile systems from Japan to enhance national defense?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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