economic forecast – Author Carlo Carrasco

Philippines 2025 GDP Growth Lands At 4.4%

January 30, 2026January 29, 2026carlocarrasco

After much anticipation, the full gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the Philippines registered final pace of 4.4% for the whole year of 2025, according to a Manila Standard business news report.

For insight, the 4.4% 2025 GDP growth is even lower than what others anticipated (click here and here). It should be recalled that GDP growth in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters of last year showed clear signs of economic weakness. The said weakness is connected with the flood control corruption scandal that rocked the nation.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of Manila Standard. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy expanded 4.4 percent in 2025 as a sharp slowdown in the final three months of the year dragged down the annual performance, government data showed on Thursday.

The gross domestic product grew 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter, marking the weakest quarterly expansion in five years. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said the industrial sector contracted by 0.9 percent during the period, while gross capital formation, a measure of investment, tumbled 10.9 percent.

Wholesale and retail trade, financial activities and public administration remained the primary drivers of growth during the October to December period.

Public administration and defense led the gains with a 7.9 percent increase, followed by financial and insurance activities at 5.6 percent and trade at 4.6 percent.

For the full year, the services sector led the economy with a 5.9-percent expansion, while agriculture, forestry and fishing grew 3.1 percent. The industrial sector recorded a modest 1.5 percent increase for all of 2025.

Consumer spending, which traditionally anchors the Philippine economy, rose 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter and 4.6 percent for the full year. Government spending saw a significant annual jump of 9.1 percent despite the year-end cooling.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to bounce back strongly this year and achieve 5% growth later? Do you think the reforms being implemented by the national government will create positive economic results soon? Are you convinced that the flood control corruption scandal turned off a lot of foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

IMF Trims Philippines Economic Growth Projections For 2026 And 2027

January 27, 2026January 20, 2026carlocarrasco

As far as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is concerned, issues of corruption and climate disruptions are enough to convince them to project economic growth of the Philippines at a slower pace not just for this year but also for next year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

Washington-based multilateral lender International Monetary Fund (IMF) has tweaked downwards its economic growth projections for the Philippines this year and the next, following its more somber outlook for 2025 amid corruption allegations and climate disruptions.

According to the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook (WEO), Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) is now seen expanding at a slower 5.1 percent, down from its earlier forecast of 5.4 percent—both of which fall short of the country’s already lowered target of at least 5.5 percent.

Despite the cut, the IMF’s forecast remains slightly more optimistic than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) assumption of a 4.6 percent growth rate, which the central bank has attributed to a loss of confidence tied to governance concerns.

For 2026 and 2027, the IMF also trimmed its growth forecasts to 5.6 percent from a previous 5.8 percent, and to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent, respectively. The central bank’s projection of 5.4 percent for 2026 stands lower than the IMF’s forecast, while its 6.2 percent forecast for 2027 is higher.

These projections still fall within the revised targets, based on National Socioeconomic Planner Arsenio M. Baliscan’s lower growth assumptions. Baliscan expects growth to clock in at five to six percent in 2026, and 5.5 to 6.5 percent in 2027—both lowered from the earlier goals of six to seven percent.

According to the IMF, the downward adjustment for 2026 and 2027 “reflects the carryover impact from a downward revision in the IMF’s growth forecast for 2025—from 5.4 to 5.1 percent—and a slower pace of capital accumulation.”

It noted that the slashed GDP growth forecast for 2025 reflects the output slump in the third quarter of 2025 “amid recent corruption allegations and climate shocks impacting economic activity in the second half of the year.”

To recall, the Philippine economy expanded by four percent in the third quarter of 2025—the weakest in four and a half years.

Looking ahead, output expansion could accelerate slower than expected mainly due to the potential “escalation of trade restrictions and prolonged uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections.”

“On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms can boost investment and foreign direct investments (FDI), increase fiscal multipliers and boost potential growth,” the lender said.

What would drive the economy in the medium term is robust private consumption and higher investment, the IMF said, “supported by monetary policy easing and the authorities’ recent policy initiatives to support private investment.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can somehow grow faster than what the IMF projected for 2026 and 2027? Do you think foreign investors have been turned off by the flood control corruption scandals?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Attracted 5.94 Million Foreign Tourists And 543K Overseas Filipinos In 2025

January 22, 2026January 22, 2026carlocarrasco

Finally, the Department of Tourism (DOT) revealed that 5.94 million foreign tourists and over 543,000 returning overseas Filipinos arrived in the Philippines in 2025 resulting in tourism revenue of P694 billion, according to a news release by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

For insight, the Philippines attracted 5,940,975 foreign visitors in 2025 which is 8,375 less compared with 2024’s foreign visitors. Ultimately, the Philippines is still behind many of its Southeast Asian neighbors on international tourism for 2025.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines recorded 6.4 million foreign visitors and returning overseas Filipinos in 2025, generating an estimated PHP694 billion in tourism receipts, the Department of Tourism (DOT) said Tuesday.

Citing Bureau of Immigration data, the DOT said 5,940,975 were foreign visitors, including cruise passengers and categories not fully captured in eTravel.

Another 543,085 were returning overseas Filipinos, bringing total inbound arrivals to 6,484,060.

The DOT said preliminary international visitor spending was estimated at PHP694 billion.

While arrivals remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2019, the DOT said the outcome was achieved despite global and domestic challenges, including travel alerts from key markets and fiscal constraints.

The agency said tourism performance should not be measured by arrivals alone, citing strong domestic travel, value creation and job generation.

Guided by the National Tourism Development Plan 2023–2028, the DOT said it remains focused on improving connectivity, safety, workforce skills and service standards.

For insight as to why the Philippines is having a lot of trouble attracting visitors from abroad, watch the YouTube videos below.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you agree with the Department of Tourism’s claim that tourism performance should not be measured by arrivals alone while the Philippines keeps on falling behind its Southeast Asian neighbors that attracted a lot more foreign tourists? Do you think the DOT should examine closely how satisfied or dissatisfied foreign tourists really are before they leave the country? Are you tired of seeing the Philippines failing to hit its annual international tourist arrival targets?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nomura Says Philippine Economic Growth May Fall Below 4% In The Near Term

January 15, 2026January 9, 2026carlocarrasco

By pointing to the effects of the flood control corruption scandal as well as other factors, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the economic growth of the Philippines may fall below 4% in the near term, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from business report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth may fall below 4% in the near term as the billion‑peso flood control scandal drags on, affecting government spending and dampening consumption and sentiment, Nomura Global Markets Research said.

“I think going forward, these spillover effects (from the graft scandal) will also expand,” Nomura Chief Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economist Euben Paracuelles told Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News on Thursday.

The scandal, which curbed state spending last year, is expected to dampen household consumption and business investment amid weaker sentiment, he added.

“If the drag is now sort of becoming more broad-based, not just the drop in government spending, you’ll see growth coming potentially below 4%, at least in the near term,” he said.

Nomura now expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 5.3% in 2026 from 5.6% previously. This is still within the government’s recently revised 5-6% target this year.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said growth targets were lowered through 2027, after GDP growth likely slowed to 4.8-5% in 2025 amid the flood control controversy.

The government cut its 2026 projection to 5-6% and to 5.5-6.5% for 2027 from the earlier 6-7% range. The 2028 target was retained at 6-7%.

Mr. Paracuelles anticipates that the government will roll out catch-up spending plans, possibly in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, the Philippines may earn a credit rating upgrade if the government manages to resolve the flood control corruption issue within a year, Mr. Paracuelles said.

“The key for me is 12 months from here, when they need to decide on whether they need to upgrade the Philippines, I think it’s still quite uncertain,” he said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economic growth of the Philippines is indeed slowing down right now? Would you be surprised to see the nation’s economic growth reach less than 4%? Do you think the officials of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) is working sufficiently to restore its credibility?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Attracted Only 5.235 Million International Tourist Arrivals In January-November 2025 Period

December 23, 2025December 17, 2025carlocarrasco

Even though there already is a foreign tourism boom in Southeast Asia, the Philippines has literally been left behind by its neighbors as it attracted only 5.235 million international tourist arrivals for the period of January to November 2025, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

For the newcomers reading this, the Philippines has been struggling throughout the year when it comes to attracting foreign visitors. In 2024, the Philippines attracted 5,949,350 foreign visitors which is way off the declared target of 7,700,000. A real estate advisory firm pointed to domestic travel as the key for the recovery of the nation’s tourism industry. Read my previous blog post by clicking here.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

VISITOR ARRIVALS in the Philippines fell by 2.16% in the first 11 months, amid a decline in tourists from South Korea and China, Tourism department data showed.

Data from the Department of Tourism (DoT) showed international tourist arrivals dropped to 5.235 million in the January-to-November period from 5.35 million in the same period in 2024.

Of the tourist arrivals, the bulk or 4.918 million were foreign tourists, while the rest were overseas Filipinos.

South Korea remained the biggest source of tourists in the first 11 months, accounting for 21.66% of the total. While 1.134 million South Koreans visited the Philippines as of November, this was a 21% decline from the 1.436 million Korean tourists a year ago.

The US was the second-biggest source of tourists, at 894,835 or 17.09% of the total as of end-November. This was 6.57% higher than last year’s 839,635 tourist arrivals from the US.

Japan was the third-biggest source of tourists, accounting for 406,794 or 7.77% of the total, 15.36% up from 352,630 a year ago.

Tourist arrivals from Australia increased by 16.17% to 268,892 in the 11-month period. Meanwhile, tourists from China fell by 16.55% to 248,339 as of end-November.

The other top markets were Canada, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Malaysia, which cumulatively accounted for 793,750 of the total arrivals.

“The weaker South Korean won amid a volatile political and economic situation over the past year and slower economic growth in China, which is the world’s second-biggest economy, on top of territorial disputes partly weighed on foreign tourism numbers,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Mr. Ricafort noted that the government should improve infrastructure to make it more convenient for tourists to travel around the country.

“Challenges include the need to further expand and develop tourism-related infrastructure such as airports, seaports, accommodation facilities, and train systems, including the Metro Manila subway and toll roads,” he added.

Despite the decline in the first 11 months, Mr. Ricafort said that it is still possible for the country to surpass the tourist arrivals last year, which reached 5.949 million.

“It is still possible, considering some seasonal increase in foreign tourists during the Christmas holiday season, especially overseas Filipino workers and balikbayans, to spend the most festive time of the year, while others escape winter,” he said.

“A higher US dollar-peso exchange rate would make it cheaper for foreign tourists to come to the Philippines,” he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Ricafort noted the growth in tourist arrivals from India and other countries, which helped “offset the decline in major traditional sources such as South Korea and China.”

India was the 11th biggest source of tourist arrivals in the January-to-November period, accounting for 85,885 or 1.64% of the total. Tourists from India increased by 17.06% from 73,369 arrivals in the same period in the previous year.

Earlier this year, the Philippines and India signed the Implementation Program on Tourism Cooperation for the years 2025 to 2028.

For his part, Colliers Research Director Joey Roi H. Bondoc said that with only 5.235 million as of end-November, it will be difficult for the country to even surpass last year’s arrivals.

“I think it will be very difficult… We may not be able to beat that or even meet that, but of course we want to end the year stronger,” he said in a phone interview.

“We see a lot of foreign tourists still in December because of the holiday season. Definitely that optimism should spill over to next year,” he added.

As for the drop in arrivals from South Korea, Mr. Bondoc attributed this to the economic downturn and political crisis in the country.

“If you look at some integrated casinos, they were initially targeting Koreans… so they are experiencing the pinch of slower arrivals from South Korea,” he said.

Mr. Bondoc said the Philippines should try to attract tourists from other markets.

For further insight about the tourism industry problem of the Philippines, watch the CNA Insider video below.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the Philippines can still beat its 2024 record of international visitor arrivals and generate huge revenues for the economy? Do you think the current administration will be able to improve the nation’s infrastructure and make travel more efficient and convenient for all tourists? Do you think the Philippines is too expensive when it comes to air travel?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Fitch Ratings Says Flood Control Corruption Scandal Imperils Philippines’ Credit Rating

December 23, 2025December 16, 2025carlocarrasco

It has been months since the flood control corruption scandal rocked the entire Philippines and the economic situation has turned for the worse along the way (click here, here and here). In the view of Fitch Ratings, the scandal puts the nation’s credit rating at risk, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE Philippine economy continues to bear the brunt of the ongoing flood control corruption scandal, Fitch Ratings said, noting that further unrest could spill over to the country’s credit rating.

Fitch Ratings Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereigns Thomas Rookmaaker said the controversy surrounding the anomalous government flood control projects threatens the country’s political stability, fiscal policy implementation, as well as business and consumer confidence.

“We believe that the flood control corruption scandal in the Philippines poses an ongoing risk to political stability, fiscal policy execution, and business and consumer confidence,” Mr. Rookmaaker told BusinessWorld in an e-mail.

Government officials, lawmakers and contractors have been accused of getting billions of pesos in kickbacks from substandard or nonexistent flood control projects. This has triggered widespread protests, slowed government spending, and hurt investor and consumer sentiment.

“The overall impact the scandal will have on the Philippines’ public finances is still uncertain,” Mr. Rookmaaker said.

“Public investment spending is likely to remain weak for quite some time, but continued social unrest could simultaneously lead to spending pressures to head off public discontent.”

In October, government spending fell for a third straight month to P430.6 billion, down 7.76% from P466.8 billion a year ago. Revenues likewise slipped by 6.64% to P441.7 billion from P473.1 billion last year.

Mr. Rookmaaker noted that the immediate impact of the scandal was reflected in the sharp economic slowdown in the third quarter.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by an over four-year low of 4% in the third quarter, as household final consumption expenditure and government spending slowed amid the corruption mess.

For the first nine months, GDP growth averaged 5%, well-below the government’s 5.5-6.5% full-year target. Public investments likewise took a hit from the corruption issues, he added.

In the third quarter, foreign investment pledges approved by investment promotion agencies plunged by 48.7% to P73.68 billion, Philippine Statistics Authority data showed.

“Persisting social tensions could become more of a drag on growth if confidence among foreign and domestic investors suffers,” the Fitch analyst said. “Tensions could also serve as a distraction for policymakers, impeding the passage of reforms that have the potential to enhance economic productivity and competitiveness.”

Mr. Rookmaaker said implementing reforms to enhance accountability and governance could bolster private investments and promote growth in the medium term.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think Fitch Ratings is correct with its economic analysis of the Philippines and the flood control corruption scandal? Do you think foreign investors have been turned off by the scandals and social unrest?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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World Bank Sees Philippine Economy Gradually Recovering In 2026 And 2027

December 11, 2025December 10, 2025carlocarrasco

The World Bank (WB) sees the economy of the Philippines making a gradual recovery in 2026 and 2027 fueled by strong domestic demand, according to a news report by BusinessWorld. The WB also stressed that corruption is unacceptable.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE WORLD BANK (WB) sees a gradual recovery for the Philippines in 2026 and 2027, after growth slowed this year due to weaker investment and sluggish consumption, compounded by a corruption scandal and a string of natural disasters.

In its latest Philippines Economic Update released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender trimmed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5.1% for this year from 5.3% in its June report. For 2026, it lowered its Philippine GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.4% previously.

The World Bank also cut its Philippine GDP growth projection for 2027 to 5.4% from 5.5% previously.

These latest projections are below the government’s 5.5-6.5% growth goal for this year and the 6-7% target for 2026 to 2028.

“To borrow from Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo (Management), it’s a Nike swoosh pattern. He describes the US economy, and I’m describing our forecast for the Philippines as a kind of Nike swoosh. We have a dip in 2025, and then we have a gradual recovery in 2026 to 2027,” World Bank Senior Economist Jaffar Al-Rikabi said during a briefing.

He noted the average growth of the Philippines over 2025 to 2027 will be lower than 2024 when GDP expanded by 5.7%.

“For 2025… the growth is largely weighed down by domestic factors. In particular, lower construction activity and weaker consumption growth,” he said.

The Philippine economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 4% in the third quarter, bringing nine-month growth to 5%, as the pace of household final consumption expenditure and government spending slowed amid a corruption scandal.

Mr. Al-Rikabi also noted the deceleration in fixed investment and private consumption due to higher-than-expected number of natural disasters that hit the Philippines this year.

“But for 2026 to 2027, we think that it’s likely that external factors will weigh more heavily on growth, largely slower export demand,” Mr. Al-Rikabi said.

The US imposed a 19% tariff on most goods from the Philippines starting August, dampening export demand.

The World Bank said the Philippine economy’s growth will pick up in 2026 and 2027, fueled by strong domestic demand.

“Private consumption is projected to strengthen as inflation stays low, employment remains robust, and monetary easing lowers interest rates, making it easier for businesses and households to borrow,” it said in the report.

According to the World Bank, private consumption, which accounts for more than 70% of the economy, is projected to expand by 4.8% this year, slowing from 4.9% in 2024. This is expected to pick up to 5.3% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027.

The World Bank said investment is likely to recover as public infrastructure projects regain momentum, while recent liberalization reforms in telecommunications, transport, logistics and renewable energy improve the business climate.

The multilateral lender also expects headline inflation to average 1.8% this year, describing the pace as “very moderate” and a key source of resilience. This forecast is slightly above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.7% projection for 2025 and the 1.6% average recorded in the first 11 months.

‘CORRUPTION IS UNACCEPTABLE’ – Even as the Philippine economy will see a gradual recovery in the next two years, Mr. Al-Rikabi noted risks are tilted to the downside, with “more prominent” domestic drivers.

“There is a continued challenge of heightened perceptions around governance risks. This could, if it continues, erode investor confidence. It could delay public investment execution, and it could weaken growth,” he said.

The World Bank economist also noted there may be delays in fiscal and structural reforms amid the current domestic environment, “which could slow consolidation and weigh on growth over the medium term.”

A corruption scandal involving anomalous flood control projects has already triggered protests, slowed economic activity, and shaken investor confidence in the country.

“From the World Bank perspective, corruption is unacceptable,” World Bank Country Director for the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei Zafer Mustafaoğlu said during the same briefing.

“The World Bank considers it detrimental to any country and has been fighting against corruption in all the member countries that we operate in,” he added.

Mr. Mustafaoğlu said the Philippine government could take this opportunity to increase transparency and modernize its budget execution system “that could actually support longer-term growth and can increase investment confidence (and) can increase long-term potential growth,” he said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the national economy will recover gradually in 2026 and 2027 as the World Bank predicted? With inflation being low, do you feel confident about spending for your needs and wants in the short term?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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AI Eyed For Integration Into Philippine Government Operations

November 9, 2025November 2, 2025carlocarrasco

During the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) recently held in South Korea, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., stated that his administration is pursuing artificial intelligence (AI) and integrate it across the agencies of the Philippine government sooner than later, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

President Marcos said his administration is determined to adopt artificial intelligence (AI) across government agencies “as much as we can, as soon as we can,” warning that waiting too long would mean missing out on opportunities for innovation and efficiency.

“You’re missing a chance if you wait,” Marcos told reporters here on Saturday evening, Nov. 1.

“AI is going to come. Parang alon ‘yan, eh. Kahit anong gawin mo, mababasa ka (AI is like a wave — no matter what you do, you’ll get wet),” he added.

The President said the Philippines must quickly learn how to use AI “in the best, secure, and benevolent way” to serve the public, warning that failure to adapt could leave the country behind.

“If you do not learn how to swim, if you do not learn how to use AI properly, may iwanan ka talaga (You’ll be left behind),” he said.

According to Marcos, AI’s rapid evolution makes it necessary for governments to study and apply the technology carefully.

“What AI can do one month ago is different from what AI will be able to do one month from now. That’s why people can’t quite understand it — it learns,” he said.

He described AI as “such a powerful tool” that could transform governance, public service, and economic competitiveness.

“You must take advantage of it as quickly as possible. You have to learn how to use it as quickly as possible,” the President said.

He added that other world leaders in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) share the same sense of urgency.

“That’s one of my big takeaways from APEC. All the other leaders as well — they recognize how quickly AI will overwhelm us if we do not learn how to handle it properly,” he said.

Not a one-size-fits-all approach – Asked whether he plans to issue a directive guiding agencies on AI adoption, Marcos said it was too early to impose a blanket policy.

“It’s not yet clear what AI you use for government,” he said.

“Each department has a slightly different AI. We have to learn — we’re still studying,” he added.

The President said the government intends to consult both local and international experts to identify which applications of AI are most useful and which areas require caution.

“We have to talk to the experts — the whole world — and find out what does it do well, what doesn’t it do well,” he said.

Still, Marcos emphasized that AI adoption must be people-centered, helping Filipinos rather than replacing them.

In my opinion, using AI for governance and public service still looks uncertain. Considering how powerful or sophisticated AI has gotten today, it can be prone to abuse by the government. Worse, there is no guarantee right now how to protect human users from getting overwhelmed in the event that AI becomes self-aware and turns rogue against humanity. Just two years ago, GMA Network came up with fake sportscasters (both generated by AI) which caused some controversy here in the Philippines and only reminded people that AI has no soul and no humanity. Apart from being harmful to human workers in the business world, lots of AI applications made errors that affected users in varying ways. AI is currently not so effective in Japan in relation to finding solutions to their rice production problems. Watch and learn from the videos below.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think AI will really be helpful with regards to governance and public service? Do you think Congress should first make a new law and a series of rules covering AI? What safety measures should be taken to protect people in case rogue AI happens? Do you think the AI move is a convenient strategy of the administration to keep people’s attention away from the flood control corruption scandals and the weakening economic growth of the country?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BMI Sees Philippines GDP Growth Slowing Down To 5.2% In 2026

November 3, 2025October 25, 2025carlocarrasco

BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, officially lowered its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) for the Philippines at 5.2% pointing a series of factors such as remittances slowdown, weaker investor sentiment, US tariffs on Philippine goods and the effects of the flood control corruption scandals, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

Fitch Solutions’ unit BMI has sharply lowered its 2026 Philippine growth forecast to well below the government’s six- to seven-percent target, citing an expected slowdown in remittances, a weaker trade balance, muted investment sentiment, and downside risks to government spending stemming from the flood control fiasco.

“We expect remittance growth to slow due to tighter US [United States] immigration policy and a one-percent remittance tax on transfers from the US starting in 2026,” BMI said in a commentary published on Thursday, Oct. 23.

“A slowdown in remittances will weigh on domestic consumption, which will have an outsized impact on growth given the domestically driven economy,” BMI explained.

Against this backdrop, BMI has slashed its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.2 percent, one-percentage-point (ppt) lower than the 6.2 percent it projected previously.

If realized, this would also fall below this year’s growth goal of 5.5 to 6.5 percent, and 2024’s actual pace of 5.7 percent.

Another policy by US President Donald Trump that could drag down the local economy is the 19-percent tariff on Philippine exports, but zero tariffs imposed on select American imports.

This US-Philippines trade setup, according to BMI, “will weigh on the trade balance in 2026.”

Goods exports growth in August was the slowest in 2025 as US tariffs took effect and exporters’ front-loading of outbound shipments ended.

The latest Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data showed that goods exports grew by 4.6 percent year-on-year in August, marking the slowest increase since the 1.9-percent decline in December 2024

BMI also believes investor sentiment will “likely” remain muted next year as “erratic US trade policies will weigh on global investor sentiment and limit foreign direct investment inflows [FDIs].”

Domestically, government spending could bear the impact of a scenario where the ongoing flood control probe leads to the unearthing of more corruption cases tied to infrastructure projects beyond flood control.

“It could lead to even tighter scrutiny on government spending and reduce spending substantially below fiscally programmed levels,” BMI said. Capital outlays had dropped by 10 percent to ₱112.9 billion as of August, according to the Department of Budget and Management (DBM).

Infrastructure spending is expected to hit ₱1.51 trillion in 2025, ₱1.56 trillion in 2026, ₱1.69 trillion in 2027, ₱1.9 trillion in 2028, ₱2.03 trillion in 2029, and ₱2.2 trillion in 2030.

Meanwhile, BMI retained its 5.4-percent Philippine growth forecast for this year, still below the lowered full-year target.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Are you convinced that due to several internal and external factors, economic growth of the Philippines will be slower this year and next year? Do you agree with BMI’s findings about the Philippine economy?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nomura Sees 2025 Philippine Economic Growth Slowing Down To 4.7%

October 30, 2025October 29, 2025carlocarrasco

In its latest economic report, Nomura Global Markets Research sees the economic growth of the Philippines slowing down to 4.7% this and they pointed to an expected decline in government spending, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH may slow to 4.7% this year, as government spending is expected to further decline amid the corruption investigation in infrastructure projects, Nomura Global Markets Research said.

In a report dated Oct. 27, Nomura Chief ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economist Euben Paracuelles and Macroeconomic Research Analyst Yiru Chen said the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast was slashed to 4.7% this year from 5.3% previously as downside risks increased due to the corruption scandal involving flood control projects.

“This pencils in GDP growth slowing to just 4% in the second half from 5.4% in the first half and is based on the assumption that the decline in government expenditures in September will worsen in the next 3-4 months,” they said.

Nomura’s latest forecast is below the government’s 5.5-6.5% GDP growth target for the year and is slower than the 5.7% growth in 2024.

“Taking into account the sharp drop in fiscal spending in September, we think the ‘bad scenario’ on the growth impact of the ongoing corruption scandal is materializing,” they said.

Third-quarter GDP data will be released on Nov. 7.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. had flagged anomalous flood control projects during his State of the Nation Address in late July. This sparked several investigations into alleged corruption involving lawmakers, government officials, and private contractors.

Latest Treasury data showed government expenditures declined by 7.53% in September, worsening from the 0.7% drop in August, mainly due to lower spending by the Department of Public Works and Highways. Nomura also noted that government spending declined by 2.8% in the third quarter, a reversal of 1.6% growth in the second quarter.

“Excluding interest payments and debt servicing, expenditure growth slumped even more to -10.2% y-o-y (year on year) in September from -3.5% in August, the weakest since 2020. This suggests a relatively rapid deterioration in the pace of budget disbursements after President Marcos brought to light the corruption scandal of flood control projects,” they said.

Nomura also noted that the reallocation of funds to other types of capital expenditures such as school buildings has been “challenging” to implement.

“In addition, we incorporate some spillovers into other components of domestic demand, which were also evident in these previous episodes, including household consumption spending. Our forecast continues to take into account the impact of the US tariffs, which, as we have argued before, pose significant headwinds for goods exports,” they said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the GDP growth of the Philippines will end up below 5% for 2025 as a whole? Are you convinced that investigations and embarrassing details from flood control projects are turning away foreign investors already?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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