growth – Author Carlo Carrasco

Nomura says America’s 19% tariff may cut Philippines GDP growth slightly

August 5, 2025July 28, 2025carlocarrasco

In the middle of mixed reactions towards the United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine exports, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be cut by 0.4%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Recently, US President Donald Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., met in the White House which resulted in the new tariff.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine goods could cut the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.4 percentage point (ppt), Nomura Global Markets Research said.

In a report, Nomura said the US tariff of 19% on Philippine goods is “fairly high” and poses downside risks to growth.

“We estimate the direct effects could reduce our baseline GDP growth forecasts by a still-substantial 0.4 ppt in the Philippines.”

Nomura said this projection is “relatively substantial” compared to its baseline growth forecasts of 5.3% and 5.6% for this year and 2026, respectively.

“This is partly because we assigned 10% as the level where the reciprocal tariff rate could settle, on the assumption that the Philippines is a strong ally of the US and is not a third country for transshipments,” Nomura said.

“As it turns out, despite the visit to Washington by President Marcos and both sides reiterating the need for a strong partnership, the tariff was still set at 19%, which is even higher than the ‘Liberation Day’ level of 17%.”

Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. met with US President Donald J. Trump at the White House in Washington, DC. Mr. Trump announced a 19% tariff would be imposed on Philippine goods, which will take effect starting Aug. 1.

“The trade ‘deals’ therefore represent upside surprises in terms of tariff rates, especially for the Philippines,” Nomura said.

“As a result, if implemented and these tariff rates are sustained, these will likely further weigh on growth in both countries relative to our current baseline forecasts.”

The government expects GDP to grow by 5.5-6.5% this year, lower than its previous target of 6-8%.

“While these ballpark estimates make sense to us, uncertainty remains high and these are ‘only’ taking into account the direct effects on these ASEAN countries’ exports to the US,” Nomura said.

These estimates do not account for sectoral tariffs, such as in semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are currently exempted, it added.

“But as our US team highlights, the risk is these could be set higher, though some countries could be exempted, adding to the uncertainty. As mentioned above, the details of the trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines are still limited.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines is in a serious disadvantage with the American tariff of 19% imposed on the nation’s exports? Do you think the Philippine economy still has strong momentum to reach 6% GDP growth by the end of this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

ADB sees Philippine economy growing by 5.6% this year

August 1, 2025July 24, 2025carlocarrasco

By pointing to a variety of factors, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently announced that the economy of the Philippines will grow by 5.6% this year, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). The ADB recently released its latest economy report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the first PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines is expected to post the second highest economic growth in Southeast Asia this year despite the downgrade in growth outlook due to external headwinds, a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) showed.

In its Asian Development Outlook July 2025 report released on Wednesday, the ADB said Philippine economic growth is expected to settle at 5.6 percent this year.

The growth outlook for the Philippines is the second highest in Southeast Asia, next to Vietnam’s 6.3 percent. Indonesia is projected to grow by 5 percent, Malaysia by 4.3 percent, Singapore by 1.6 percent, and Thailand by 1.8 percent.

For 2026, growth is expected to slightly pick up to 5.8 percent.

The ADB’s latest projection, however, was lower than its 6 percent for 2024 and 6.1 percent for 2025 economic growth forecast amid external headwinds. The Philippine economy grew by 5.4 percent in the first quarter of the year.

“Domestic demand grew 6.7 percent, supported by easing inflation and monetary policy. However, net exports dragged on growth as brisk imports outpaced exports,” the ADB said. It added that manufacturing index (PMI) recovered slightly to 50.7 in June from 50.1 in May.

“Consumer sentiment was positive in the near term. Unemployment was low at 3.9 percent in May, and remittance growth of 3.0 percent helped sustain household spending,” it said.

The ADB, however, said that business confidence softened amid heightened global policy uncertainties.

According to the ADB, economic forecasts for most countries in Southeast Asia have been downgraded for 2025 and 2026 due to the continuing global growth slowdown and increased trade uncertainty.

“Weaker external conditions have hurt business and consumer sentiment and threaten to disrupt investment in the subregion,” it said.

“Except for Indonesia, the largest economy in the subregion, all Southeast Asian economies are expected to post weaker growth in the next two years.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think it is still possible for the economy of the Philippines reach 6% GDP growth by the end of 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Department of Finance (DOF) says 6% economic growth is quite difficult to achieve this year

July 31, 2025July 23, 2025carlocarrasco

The uncertainty about this year’s economic growth for the Philippines has gotten stronger as the Department of Finance (DOF) admitted that achieving 6% growth is quite difficult, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The DOF pointed to external shocks that are affecting the national economy.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

While the Philippine economy has already been recovering from its deep recession during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, hitting its growth potential of six percent would be challenging given the global uncertainties spilling over domestically, according to the Department of Finance (DOF).

“We do think that the potential of the Philippines is at the minimum six-percent growth. But of course, it’s quite difficult, especially knowing some of the challenges that we’re seeing,” DOF Undersecretary and Chief Economist Domini Velasquez told reporters during the Philippine thrift banks’ annual convention on Tuesday, July 15.

Just before the initial three-month pause on reciprocal tariffs ended on July 9, United States (US) President Donald Trump had stretched it to Aug. 1, but hiked the rates for Philippine exports to 20 percent from 17 percent previously, repeatedly citing the “significant and persistent trade deficit” that the trade giant has with its former colony.

Velasquez noted that the tariff hike was among the uncertainties that the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) had considered in downscaling its growth target for the year, through 2028.

Last month, the economic team slashed its 2025 GDP growth target to between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent from six- to 6.5-percent previously. Cited as factors were heightened external uncertainties, especially the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the imposition of US tariffs.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto told reporters during an informal press chat on Wednesday, July 16, that he expects the economy to accelerate “significantly” in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter.

“In effect, the target is still six percent for the year,” Recto noted, taking off from the recently revised growth goal. “Realistically, it’s probably around 5.7 percent or 5.8 percent for the year. It depends, because there’s a lot of uncertainty—uncertainty with trade policy.”

“But I think the second quarter will definitely be better than the first,” Recto said, noting that the improvement will be driven by both government and household consumption.

The DBCC had also narrowed the growth target range for 2026 to 2028 to six to seven percent, from the previously more ambitious six to eight percent.

“We did recognize those [tariffs]. When we dialed down on our growth target in 2025, it’s really because of the external factors that we were seeing,” Velasquez said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national economy is not strong enough to achieve 6% GDP growth by the end of this year? What do you think the national government should do to strengthen economic growth and make the Philippines more attractive to foreign investors? Do you think the Philippines still has a chance to convince America to lower its planned tariff on Philippine-made goods?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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57% of retail payments in the Philippines are digital

July 15, 2025July 8, 2025carlocarrasco

There is no denying that consumers here in the Philippines prefer to use digital methods of paying over cash as more than 57% of retail transactions by volume are digital, according to a business news report by Malay Business Insight. The details were revealed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from Malaya Business Insight’s news report. Some parts in boldface…

More Filipinos are going cashless and transacting in e-money or digital cash as the most preferred payment for retail accounts, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said in a report on Monday.

Based on the latest BSP status report, digital payments now account for 57.4 percent of retail transactions by volume as of end-2024, up from 52.8 percent in 2023. In terms of value, e-money’s share also increased to 59 percent from 55.3 percent.

The figures surpassed the government’s target range of between 52 and 54 percent as set under the Philippine Development Plan 2023–2028.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said the steady year-on-year growth “reinforces the momentum built after surpassing the 2023 digitalization target of 50 percent for volume.”

He also said the upward trajectory “reflects the long-term impact of market developments, policy initiatives, and the growing trust and familiarity of Filipinos with digital payment options.”

Remolona said the BSP will continue to harness technology and finance to connect markets and ensure that “every Filipino becomes part of the formal financial system.”

They will do this by empowering banks, non-banks and the fintech sector to leverage innovation in designing financial products that are not only accessible but also more responsive to the needs of consumers.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? When it comes to retail transactions, do you prefer to pay with cash or with a digital payment method? Do you have any e-wallets (electronic wallets) right now?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines tourism industry failing to attract many foreign visitors this year

July 10, 2025July 14, 2025carlocarrasco

Based on the latest international tourism statistics and analysis for 2025, the Philippines is clearly failing to attract foreign tourists when compared to its Southeast Asian neighbors, according to a news article by VnExpress.

For the newcomers reading this, the Philippines attracted 5.95 million foreign tourists in 2024 and generated more than P760 billion in tourism revenue. The entire Philippine tourism industry registered an 8.9% share of the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024. The nation’s tourism industry had a strong start of over P65 billion in revenue for January 2025.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the VnExpress news article. Some parts in boldface…

An online debate has erupted on social media as users wonder why the Philippines, with its rich nature, culture, and cuisine, is being overlooked by foreign tourists in favor of destinations like Vietnam and Thailand.

Thea Tan, a Filipino, posted on her X account in May expressing frustration over the Philippines’ underwhelming tourism numbers despite offering what other countries dream of: breathtaking beaches, vibrant culture, incredible food, and the warmest locals.

“So, why are tourists still choosing Thailand, Vietnam, and Bali over us?” she asked.

The post quickly went viral, accumulating over 9,000 likes and hundreds of comments.

In the first quarter of the year, Malaysia topped the list of most-visited Southeast Asian countries, with 10.1 million arrivals, followed by Thailand (9.55 million), Vietnam (6 million), and Singapore (4.3 million). By April, the Philippines had only welcomed 2.1 million visitors.

In 2024, the country saw 5.9 million foreign tourists, falling short of the government’s target of 7.7 million and far behind its regional neighbors including Cambodia, which had 6.7 million visitors.

Many online users, like Tan, argue that the Philippines is not considered a top priority destination in ASEAN.

“We are tiring out tourists with poor infrastructure and complicated transportation,” Tan noted.

Even locals find domestic travel expensive and difficult, let alone for foreign visitors, according to comments on the post.

“The Philippines has beautiful beaches, delicious food, and friendly people, but it lacks roads, reliable airports, and public transportation. Most importantly, the prices here are too high,” one local shared.

Another netizen pointed out, “In all the countries you’ve mentioned, their capitals are also tourist destinations. Manila, on the other hand, is boring for tourists. We don’t have decent museums or historical tours, and moving around in Manila is not easy either.”

A netizen added, “The government isn’t investing in quality tourist facilities and infrastructure like our neighboring countries. That’s where we’re lagging behind.“

Recently, the Philippines was ranked as the most dangerous destination by U.K. financial comparison site HelloSafe in a survey dismissed by the Philippines’ tourism experts as biased and misleading.

Victor Lim, president of the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, emphasized that the Philippines must improve its infrastructure and enhance safety measures to establish itself as a leading tourist destination in Southeast Asia, Philstar reported.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Department of Tourism and its strategic partners should get together and come up with hard adjustments to make the Philippines more attractive to foreigners? What do you think are the five biggest problems of the tourism industry of the country? Do you consider tourism-related awards crucial to the Philippines’ ability to attract visitors from around the world?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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For more South Metro Manila community news and developments, come back here soon. Also say NO to fake news, NO to irresponsible journalism, NO to misinformation, NO to plagiarists, NO to reckless publishers and NO to sinister propaganda when it comes to news and developments. For South Metro Manila community developments, member engagement, commerce and other relevant updates, join the growing South Metro Manila Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/342183059992673

Philippines Inflation Rate Rises to 1.4% in June 2025

July 10, 2025July 4, 2025carlocarrasco

After back-to-back months of shrinking, the headline inflation of the Philippines inched up to 1.4% for the month of June 2025, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). By comparison, May 2025 inflation rate was 1.3%.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Headline inflation continued to remain below the lower end of the government’s target range in June, despite a slight uptick due to a faster increase in non-food prices.

In a briefing on Friday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said headline inflation settled at 1.4 percent in June from 1.3 percent in May.

This brings the year-to-date average inflation to 1.8 percent, well within the government’s target range of 2 percent to 4 percent for the year.

Mapa said the slight uptick in headline inflation was driven by higher non-food inflation (1.9 percent from 1.5 percent), with faster price increases observed in electricity (7.4 percent from 2.8 percent) and education (5.4 percent from 4.2 percent). Food inflation, however, eased to 0.1 percent during the month from 0.7 percent in May.

Mapa said the deceleration of food inflation in June was mainly due to the annual decrease in the prices of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses at 2.8 percent from an annual increase of 3.4 percent in the previous month. Rice deflation also hit a record low of 14.3 percent in June.

Mapa said the rollout of the government’s PHP20 per kg. rice program also contributed to the decline, especially in regular-milled rice prices.

In a separate statement, the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) said government measures to stabilize food supply, boost agriculture, and improve logistics helped ease food inflation during the month.

“The sharp decline in food inflation over the past year underscores the continued progress in our coordinated efforts to boost local production, improve logistics, and implement calibrated trade and biosecurity measures,” DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said.

“We will sustain these interventions and complement them with targeted initiatives to ensure a continuous, stable supply and shield consumers from future price pressures.”

To further strengthen food supply chains, DEPDev said the Department of Agriculture (DA) would intensify the implementation of industry recovery and expansion programs, such as the Swine Industry Recovery Project and Livestock Economic Enterprise Development, to accelerate the rehabilitation of the hog industry and restore the pre-African Swine Fever hog population levels.

The DA will also establish the country’s first Onion Research and Extension Center in Bongabon, Nueva Ecija for the development of effective methods to combat pests and diseases, enhance seed quality, and increase farm yields.

The Department of Energy, meanwhile, has partnered with private oil companies to offer fuel discounts to motorists affected by oil price fluctuations amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation rate of the Philippines will be able to settle below 2% per month until the end of the year? If you are managing a local business, how much of an impact did inflation have on your business?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nineteen More Medicines VAT-Exempt in the Philippines

July 5, 2025July 4, 2025carlocarrasco

Following the recent announcement of several medicines declared exempted from the value-added tax (VAT), nineteen more medicines became VAT-exempt as a result of the recommendation of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Nineteen maintenance and lifesaving medicines have been included in the list of those exempted from value added tax (VAT), benefiting more people.

Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) Commissioner Romeo Lumagui Jr., during the Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon briefing on Thursday, said nine medicines were included under Revenue Memorandum Circular (RMC) 59-2025 issued on June 11, 2025 while the other 10 are covered by RMC 62-2025.

He said the inclusion of the medications for VAT exemption was based on the recommendation of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Of the total, seven of these medicines are for cancer treatment; three each for diabetes, hypertension and mental illness; one each for high cholesterol, kidney disease, and tuberculosis.

“Ang mga ito ay mga maintenance at lifesaving medicines na ngayon ay hindi na papatawan ng VAT. Isang kongkretong hakbang para mas mapagaan ang gastuhin ng mga pasyente (These are maintenance and lifesaving medicines that will now be exempt from VAT. This move is a concrete step to lower patients’ expenses),” Lumagui said.

The BIR chief said both the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) law and the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law provide VAT exemptions on certain health products.

He said BIR coordinates with the FDA and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) among others to monitor compliance among pharmaceutical companies and drugstores regarding this price changes.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Were you surprised that a lot more medicines were declared VAT-exempt?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Lowers Economic Growth Target Amid Global Uncertainty

July 2, 2025June 27, 2025carlocarrasco

As there are more signs of weakness and uncertainty, the economic managers of the Philippines officially lowered their economic growth target this year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Economic managers on Thursday revised the economic growth target for this year amid mounting global uncertainties.

At a briefing after the 191st Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) meeting, Budget Secretary and DBCC Chair Amenah Pangandaman said the economic growth assumption for 2025 was revised downward to 5.5 to 6.5 percent from the previous 6 to 8 percent.

For 2026 to 2028, the Philippine economy is projected to expand by 6 to 7 percent, reflecting a more cautious and resilient economic outlook amid global headwinds.

“The revisions take into account heightened global uncertainties, such as the unforeseen escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the imposition of U.S. tariffs,” Pangandaman said.

She said that despite these challenges, the DBCC remains “vigilant and ready to deploy timely and targeted measures” to mitigate their potential impact on the Philippine economy.

The budget chief said the country continues to be one of the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN driven by robust domestic demand.

To maintain this momentum, she highlighted the administration’s focus on structural reforms, including the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act and the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Code, both designed to enhance the country’s trade and investment competitiveness.

Pangandaman said the government will also pursue the approval and implementation of other reforms recently ratified by Congress, such as the Liberalizing the Lease of Private Lands by Foreign Investors Act, Enhanced Fiscal Regime for Large-Scale Metallic Mining Act, Accelerated and Reformed Right-of-Way (ARROW) Act, and Konektadong Pinoy Act.

The DBCC also revisited the medium-term macroeconomic assumptions to take into consideration recent global and domestic developments.

The inflation assumption for this year was cut to 2 to 3 percent from the previous 2 to 4 percent. For 2026 to 2028, the inflation assumption was retained at 2 to 4 percent.

For 2025 to 2028, crude oil price assumptions were reduced to USD60 to USD70 per barrel from USD60 to 80 per barrel, despite escalating geopolitical tensions.

The foreign exchange rate is assumed to remain stable, averaging at PHP56 to PHP58 per US dollar from 2025 through 2028, supported by lower domestic inflation.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines is lacking momentum to achieve 6% growth this year? Do you think that inflation and unemployment will eventually rise before the year ends? Are you convinced that foreign investors are staying away from the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BPI lead economist says Philippine economy will accelerate this year

January 30, 2025January 22, 2025carlocarrasco

For the lead economist of Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), the economy of the Philippines will accelerate this year in connection to rising household consumption as well as other factors, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

Growth of the Philippine economy is expected to accelerate this year, driven by the continued expansion of household consumption, an economist from the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) said.

“We expect the Philippine economy to expand by 6.3% in 2025, outpacing the previous year’s performance, with household consumption remaining its biggest driver,” BPI lead economist Jun Neri said in a commentary released late Wednesday.

Neri earlier forecast a 6.1 percent economic growth for 2024.

Neri said factors sustaining household consumption growth such as remittance inflows, remained in place despite the economic slowdown in major economies.

“With aging populations abroad driving the demand for labor, the impact of headwinds on remittances like trade barriers and anti-immigration sentiment will likely be limited. Remittances also have a strong track record of stability and growth even in times of crisis, as seen during the pandemic,” he said.

Neri said the country’s low unemployment rate is also expected to support consumption.

“This should continue to drive the growth of household income and the expansion of the middle class,” he said.

Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the unemployment rate further went down to 3.2 percent in November last year from 3.6 percent in November 2023.

Consumer spending, meanwhile, is expected to grow at a faster pace this year as inflation remains at a manageable level.

“This improvement will likely be most apparent in discretionary spending after a period of slower growth caused by high inflation, as consumers focused more on essentials,” said Neri.

Inflation will likely settle at 3.5 percent this year, well within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target, Neri said.

Meanwhile, he said the recent reduction in interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), will also help boost economic growth.

To recall, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reduced policy rates for a total of 75 basis points this year.

The BSP also reduced the RRR of universal and commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 basis points.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to grow by at least 6.3% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Lower-than-expected economic growth for the Philippines until 2025

November 26, 2024November 19, 2024carlocarrasco

Based on the recent findings of Citigroup, Inc., the growth domestic product (GDP) of the Philippines will grow at a lower-than-expected rate until 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to expand slower than the government’s target until 2025, Citigroup, Inc. (Citi) said.

Citi cut its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.8% this year but kept its 6% growth forecast for 2025. This is below the government’s 6-7% target this year and 6.5-7.5% goal next year.

“We lowered 2024 GDP growth slightly from 6% to 5.8%, mainly due to a weak third-quarter outturn that had been a result of several temporary, weather-related factors,” Citi economist for Thailand and the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham said in a report.

The Philippine economy slowed to 5.2% in the July-to-September period from 6.4% in the second quarter and 6% a year ago. This was also the weakest growth since the 4.3% expansion in the second quarter of last year.

“Nonetheless, we think it would be misleading to view the weaker third-quarter expansion as the start of a slowdown as several negative factors in the third quarter are one-off events,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

She said the weakness in third-quarter economic growth mainly stemmed from the drop in agriculture production, construction activity and net exports.

Despite the weak third quarter, Citi expects growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter as domestic demand is seen to pick up due to easing inflation and lower rates.

“We expect fourth-quarter 2024 GDP growth to accelerate to 6% year on year. Household consumption is expected to continue improving, supported by lower interest rates and improved consumer sentiment as inflation continues to stabilize.”

In the first nine months, GDP grew by 5.8%. The economy would need to grow by at least 6.5% in the fourth quarter to meet the lower end of the government’s 6-7% target.

“With the storm season passing soon, we also expect infrastructure projects’ progress to proceed at a faster clip in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

Domestic demand will also likely be sustained by improving employment conditions, remittance growth and bank lending.

“The RRR (reserve requirement ratio) cut of 250 basis points (bps), effective on Oct. 25, would also release more liquidity into the banking system and likely continue to support strong credit expansion,” Ms. Chutchotitham added.

The central bank last month reduced the RRR for universal and commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 bps to 7%.

“We also maintain our expectation of 6% growth in 2025 but see some upside risks due to tailwinds from more rate cuts,” Citi said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will likely cut by 25 bps in December and by a total of 75 bps next year, according to Citi.

This year so far, the central bank has reduced interest rates by 50 bps since August. The Monetary Board is set to hold its last rate-setting meeting of the year on Dec. 19.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines still has enough momentum to exceed the 4^th quarter growth targets of economists?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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