GDP – Author Carlo Carrasco

World Bank Sees Philippine Economy Gradually Recovering In 2026 And 2027

December 11, 2025December 10, 2025carlocarrasco

The World Bank (WB) sees the economy of the Philippines making a gradual recovery in 2026 and 2027 fueled by strong domestic demand, according to a news report by BusinessWorld. The WB also stressed that corruption is unacceptable.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE WORLD BANK (WB) sees a gradual recovery for the Philippines in 2026 and 2027, after growth slowed this year due to weaker investment and sluggish consumption, compounded by a corruption scandal and a string of natural disasters.

In its latest Philippines Economic Update released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender trimmed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5.1% for this year from 5.3% in its June report. For 2026, it lowered its Philippine GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.4% previously.

The World Bank also cut its Philippine GDP growth projection for 2027 to 5.4% from 5.5% previously.

These latest projections are below the government’s 5.5-6.5% growth goal for this year and the 6-7% target for 2026 to 2028.

“To borrow from Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo (Management), it’s a Nike swoosh pattern. He describes the US economy, and I’m describing our forecast for the Philippines as a kind of Nike swoosh. We have a dip in 2025, and then we have a gradual recovery in 2026 to 2027,” World Bank Senior Economist Jaffar Al-Rikabi said during a briefing.

He noted the average growth of the Philippines over 2025 to 2027 will be lower than 2024 when GDP expanded by 5.7%.

“For 2025… the growth is largely weighed down by domestic factors. In particular, lower construction activity and weaker consumption growth,” he said.

The Philippine economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 4% in the third quarter, bringing nine-month growth to 5%, as the pace of household final consumption expenditure and government spending slowed amid a corruption scandal.

Mr. Al-Rikabi also noted the deceleration in fixed investment and private consumption due to higher-than-expected number of natural disasters that hit the Philippines this year.

“But for 2026 to 2027, we think that it’s likely that external factors will weigh more heavily on growth, largely slower export demand,” Mr. Al-Rikabi said.

The US imposed a 19% tariff on most goods from the Philippines starting August, dampening export demand.

The World Bank said the Philippine economy’s growth will pick up in 2026 and 2027, fueled by strong domestic demand.

“Private consumption is projected to strengthen as inflation stays low, employment remains robust, and monetary easing lowers interest rates, making it easier for businesses and households to borrow,” it said in the report.

According to the World Bank, private consumption, which accounts for more than 70% of the economy, is projected to expand by 4.8% this year, slowing from 4.9% in 2024. This is expected to pick up to 5.3% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027.

The World Bank said investment is likely to recover as public infrastructure projects regain momentum, while recent liberalization reforms in telecommunications, transport, logistics and renewable energy improve the business climate.

The multilateral lender also expects headline inflation to average 1.8% this year, describing the pace as “very moderate” and a key source of resilience. This forecast is slightly above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.7% projection for 2025 and the 1.6% average recorded in the first 11 months.

‘CORRUPTION IS UNACCEPTABLE’ – Even as the Philippine economy will see a gradual recovery in the next two years, Mr. Al-Rikabi noted risks are tilted to the downside, with “more prominent” domestic drivers.

“There is a continued challenge of heightened perceptions around governance risks. This could, if it continues, erode investor confidence. It could delay public investment execution, and it could weaken growth,” he said.

The World Bank economist also noted there may be delays in fiscal and structural reforms amid the current domestic environment, “which could slow consolidation and weigh on growth over the medium term.”

A corruption scandal involving anomalous flood control projects has already triggered protests, slowed economic activity, and shaken investor confidence in the country.

“From the World Bank perspective, corruption is unacceptable,” World Bank Country Director for the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei Zafer Mustafaoğlu said during the same briefing.

“The World Bank considers it detrimental to any country and has been fighting against corruption in all the member countries that we operate in,” he added.

Mr. Mustafaoğlu said the Philippine government could take this opportunity to increase transparency and modernize its budget execution system “that could actually support longer-term growth and can increase investment confidence (and) can increase long-term potential growth,” he said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the national economy will recover gradually in 2026 and 2027 as the World Bank predicted? With inflation being low, do you feel confident about spending for your needs and wants in the short term?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Approved Foreign Investment Pledges Fall Down 48.7% In 3rd Quarter

November 21, 2025November 14, 2025carlocarrasco

The flood control corruption scandals connected with the weaker investor sentiment resulted in a 48.7% fall in foreign investment pledges during the 3^rd quarter this year, according a news report by BusinessWorld. It should be noted that Philippines GDP growth for the same quarter slowed down a lot.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

APPROVED foreign investment pledges plunged nearly 50% in the third quarter as investor sentiment soured due to the corruption scandal involving government infrastructure projects, the local statistics agency said.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed the value of foreign commitments approved by investment promotion agencies (IPAs) fell by 48.7% to P73.68 billion in the July-to-September period from P143.74 billion in same period last year.

However, this was the highest amount of investment pledges since the third quarter of 2024.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said the decline in approved investments can be attributed to the weaker investor sentiment.

“Tingin ko. Wala pang nakukulong eh (I think so. No one has been imprisoned yet),” he said in a Viber message, when asked if this sharp slump in approved investments will likely persist in the fourth quarter until 2026.

Quarter on quarter, the approved pledges rose by 9.34% from P67.38 billion in the second quarter.

Singapore was the top source of foreign investment pledges in the third quarter with P20.26 billion (27.5%), followed by Japan with P13.59 billion (18.4%) and Cayman Islands with P13.14 billion (17.8%).

Investment commitments from South Korea stood at P5.57 billion (7.6%), while those from China stood at P4.51 billion (6.1%)

PSA data showed the investment pledges were approved by seven IPAs — the Authority of the Freeport Area of Bataan, Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), Board of Investments (BoI), Clark Development Corp., Clark International Airport Corp., Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), and Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think the government must do to convince foreign investors to become more confident about investing in the Philippines? Do you think the investigation and pace of justice related to the flood control corruption scandal is moving too slowly?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Leechiu Property Consultants See Bright Future Ahead For Philippine Tourism Due To Key Factors

October 28, 2025October 19, 2025carlocarrasco

There is no denying the fact that the Philippines is having trouble attracting foreign tourists this year but for Leechiu Property Consultants there is still a bright future ahead for the nation’s tourism industry due to growth in domestic tourism and a few other factors, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

Although Asian tourist arrivals decline, the Philippine tourism industry is still perceived to be entering “a new era of opportunity” because of the growth in domestic tourism, improved flight connectivity, and the 99-year lease reform.

Leechiu Property Consultants said in its third-quarter media briefing that, as investors refocus on long-duration assets, the country’s hospitality and leisure industries are expected to see renewed capital flows and expanded capacity through 2026.

“With the anticipated growth in domestic and long-haul tourism, along with increased hospitality FDIs (foreign direct investments) driven by the newly-approved 99-year lease to foreign investors, the tourism sector is poised to strengthen its position as a key investment area and a vital pillar of the Philippine economy,” said LPC Director of Hotels, Tourism, and Leisure Alfred Lay.

He said the sector continued its steady recovery in the third quarter of 2025, but “while there are signs of resilience, no significant shifts have yet created real momentum in foreign arrivals. Without a major catalyst, arrivals are unlikely to surpass 2024 levels.”

Traditional leaders, such as South Korea and China, show steep declines, while the USA, Japan, and Australia are emerging as stronger contributors, reflecting changing travel patterns and opportunities to diversify source markets.

While international arrivals remain below pre-pandemic peaks, Lay said “domestic travel is surging toward historic highs, establishing a solid foundation for long-term tourism growth and investment confidence.”

Domestic tourists are projected to reach 58.7 million in 2025, rising further to 62.2 million in 2026, a trajectory supported by the country’s forecast gross domestic product growth by 7.63 percent and 5.8 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Over the past two decades, domestic tourism spending has outpaced GDP, underscoring the sector’s resilience and capacity to drive nationwide economic activity.

Meanwhile, rising travel demand has spurred a wave of hotel developments nationwide, with a total of 5,210 new keys to be added in 2025—over 4,300 of which are expected to open in the fourth quarter.

A majority of these projects are led by domestic operators, reflecting local developers’ agility in capturing demand across destinations such as Metro Manila, Cebu, Boracay, Davao, and Palawan.

Lay said the newly approved 99-year lease law has created a strong foundation for long-term tourism investment as it provides global investors with the security to pursue large-scale resort and mixed-use developments.

Over time, the law is expected to stimulate foreign direct investment in tourism and hospitality, similar to the trends observed in the Maldives, where long-term leases have transformed the sector into a global investment hotspot.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think domestic tourism, improved flight connectivity and the 99-year lease reform will boost Philippine tourism in the short-term? Do you think domestic tourism will keep on growing to life up the nation’s tourism industry as a whole?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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DEPDev Secretary Says Philippines Likely To Hit Low-End Of 2025 GDP Growth Target

October 26, 2025October 17, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently the Secretary of the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) expressed confidence that the economy of the Philippines will hit the low-end target of GDP growth for 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said he is confident Philippine economic growth will hit the lower end of the target this year, despite a slowdown in the third quarter.

“The growth that we are expecting for 2025 is now 5.5 to 6.5% The low-end of the range is still very much achievable,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an event on Oct. 16.

Economic managers will meet next week to assess whether revisions to this year’s growth outlook are needed, he added.

Budget Secretary and Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) Chairperson Amenah F. Pangandaman on Wednesday told BusinessWorld that the gross domestic product (GDP) target for 2025 “remains attainable.”

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto earlier said flagged a slowdown in the third quarter and possibly until early 2026 as corruption probes curb public spending.

Aside from slower public spending, Mr. Balisacan said weather disruptions may have dampened economic activity in the July-September period.

“There may be a bit of a slowdown (in third quarter) because of these supply shocks that we have seen. There are so many typhoons that we have seen during the quarter, many days of work suspension. So economic activity is really affected,” he said.

Asked whether third quarter growth could fall below the 5.5% annual GDP growth in the second quarter, Mr. Balisacan said: “Hopefully not.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Would you be satisfied to see the economy of the Philippines grow by 5.5% this year? Do you think there will still be a lot of challenges and problems in the 4^th quarter that could somehow bring economic growth below 5.5% for the entire year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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World Bank Flags Slowing Philippine Economy As Flood Control Scandal Controversy And Softening Financial Market Go On

October 25, 2025October 16, 2025carlocarrasco

The embarrassment of the ongoing flood control corruption scandals and the slowing economy of the Philippines caught the attention of the World Bank (WB) as it released a detailed assessment of the nation, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The World Bank (WB) has flagged a slowing Philippine economy as investor sentiment weakens, financial markets soften, and manufacturing and exports falter—even as joblessness steadies and inflation stays below target.

“There are signs that economic activity may be decelerating” in the country, the WB said in its Philippines Monthly Economic Developments report for September 2025, published on Oct. 14.

The WB highlighted that investor sentiment toward domestic financial assets weakened in September, with the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) falling 0.9 percent between August and Sept. 18—contrasting with the rising stock markets of regional peers since July.

The WB noted that while interest rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)—which lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75 percent last Oct. 9—and the United States (US) Federal Reserve supported early September gains, negative market developments later limited buying activity in the domestic stock market.

Among these “unfavorable market updates” were “governance issues in flood control projects, an uptrend in inflation and unemployment, and lower foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows,” the report said.

“Amid these developments, foreign investors became net sellers of local shares. This contributed to the slight weakening of the Philippine peso against the US dollar,” the report noted.

“In real effective terms, the Philippine peso depreciated in August against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners” and sustained a slight depreciation last month, it added.

The WB also noted that the Philippines’ merchandise export growth fell to an eight-month low in August, with exports rising just 4.6 percent year-on-year as shipments to the US declined following the introduction of higher tariffs.

This came even as export growth was “driven by sustained demand for semiconductors and electronic data processing equipment, primarily from Hong Kong and Japan,” the report added.

Meanwhile, the WB emphasized that merchandise import values declined by 4.9 percent year-on-year last August, mainly due to lower global prices for coal and petroleum products. The Philippines is a net oil importer. The report also noted that imports of raw materials and intermediate goods fell after robust growth in prior months.

Imports of motor vehicles, however, rose—driven by strong consumer demand. The WB noted that, in all, the goods trade deficit narrowed from $4.4 billion in July to $3.5 billion in August.

The WB also highlighted that high-frequency data indicated a slowdown in manufacturing activity, with output rising just 1.4 percent year-on-year in August, largely supported by growth in the food products sector.

However, the WB said that production of electrical equipment as well as computer, electronic, and optical products decelerated, reflecting the slowdown in export growth.

The WB also noted that the country’s S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for September dropped to 49.9, falling below the neutral threshold for the first time in six months and indicating a contraction in activity.

“Despite modest gains in external demand, output and new orders from the domestic market declined, and business confidence, while positive, remained subdued,” the WB added.

The WB further highlighted that labor market conditions steadied as the effects of weather-related disruptions eased, noting that the unemployment rate held steady year-on-year at 3.9 percent in August, rebounding from a temporary rise in July caused by adverse weather that affected agriculture and fisheries.

The WB said that employment in wholesale and retail trade fell year-on-year, although the reasons behind the decline remain unclear and require careful monitoring.

“The government expects further improvement in labor market conditions as weather-sensitive sectors continue to recover in the near term,” the WB added.

The WB stressed that inflation has increased moderately in recent months but remains below the central bank’s target, with headline inflation reaching a six-month high of 1.7 percent in September due to the delayed effects of weather-related supply disruptions, which pushed up food prices, especially for vegetables and oils.

“Despite this, average inflation remains below the two- to four-percent inflation band set by the BSP and is partly limited by sustained rice disinflation,” the WB said.

Year-on-year drops in rice prices helped ease inflationary pressures on the poorest 30 percent of households, with their consumer price index (CPI) falling by 0.2 percent in September, the report added.

“Favorable inflation dynamics and moderating domestic demand” supported the BSP’s monetary easing, the WB said, adding that the central bank has “space for a more accommodative policy stance in the context of a weaker outlook for economic growth.”

The WB stated that external imbalances widened in the first half of 2025, though foreign reserves remained sufficient, noting that the current account deficit grew to 3.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—up 0.3 percentage point (ppt) year-on-year—driven by strong domestic demand that boosted goods imports.

“Higher spending by Filipino tourists abroad and lower inbound tourism receipts also contributed to a decline in net receipts from services trade,” it added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? What do you think the national government should do to improve the nation’s economic conditions? Do you agree with what the WB reported about the Philippines? If you have been managing a business for at least one year, has 2025 been a rough business year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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S&P Credit Rating Upgrade For Philippines Derailed By Flood Control Scandals

October 23, 2025October 15, 2025carlocarrasco

Here in the Philippines, the flood control corruption scandals are not only keeping many Filipinos very angry but they are also affecting the economy negatively as the nation was prevented from achieving a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE FINANCE CHIEF on Tuesday said the multibillion-peso flood control scandal prevented the Philippines from getting a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings.

“If [only] we did not have the flood control issue,” Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto told reporters on the sidelines of a Senate budget hearing. “We met with S&P, and they were ready to give us a credit rating upgrade this year.”

The controversy, which involves “ghost” projects and fund misuse in government flood control programs, has triggered investigations by Congress, the Commission on Audit, the Ombudsman, and the Independent Commission for Infrastructure.

The Marcos administration is facing increasing scrutiny over flood control projects, where billions of pesos in public funds were diverted through padded contracts and shell companies.

The scandal highlighted spending inefficiencies and governance lapses that credit agencies closely monitor when evaluating institutional credibility and fiscal management.

Asked whether the Philippines can achieve an “A” credit rating in the next two years, Mr. Recto said: “I hope so.”

He said the government wants to maintain its current credit rating, despite the multibillion-peso corruption scandal.

“There is a big chance they will maintain it, but there was a bigger chance for a credit rating upgrade,” he added.

In November 2024, S&P affirmed its “BBB+” long-term credit rating for the Philippines, which is a notch below the “A” level grade targeted by the government.

S&P had also raised its rating outlook to “positive” from “stable.” A positive outlook means the Philippines’ credit rating could be raised over the next two years if improvements are sustained.

Mr. Recto said the government needs to improve its governance and resolve the flood control mess.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? What do you think the national government should do to resolve the flood control mess? Are you convinced that the ongoing flood control corruption scandals are already turning away potential foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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DTI Defers Mandatory Trustmark Due To Backlash From Online Merchants

October 18, 2025October 17, 2025carlocarrasco

In response to backlash from online merchants, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) officially deferred the mandatory Trademark, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. Trustmark will be voluntary until December 31, 2025.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

After facing backlash from online merchants, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) will no longer mandate the E-Commerce Philippine Trustmark, instead making the requirement voluntary until the end of the year.

In a statement, the DTI said the move was announced by Trade Secretary Cristina Roque during a town hall meeting about the trustmark’s implementation on Wednesday, Oct. 15.

Roque said that hearing directly from stakeholders made the agency want to improve the trustmark to make it more “useful, fair, and helpful for both businesses and consumers.”

“After all, our shared goal is to make e-commerce in the Philippines safer and more trustworthy for everyone,” she said.

The secretary—and the DTI as a whole—has been on the receiving end of outrage among online merchants, who have been labeling the trustmark as an additional burden.

The DTI even disabled the comment feature on its Facebook page after being bombarded with criticism on every post, even those unrelated to the trustmark.

The trustmark, aligned with the Internet Transactions Act, serves as a digital badge to ensure that online platforms and merchants are compliant with fair e-commerce practices. It is designed to help consumers identify legitimate businesses, protecting them against unfair trade practices, scams, and other fraudulent activities.

Under the new policy, the DTI said that the trustmark will be voluntary until Dec. 31. So far, the DTI is still finalizing supplemental guidelines for this policy, including fees that depend on the size or type of business, among other details.

By early 2026, the department is expected to evaluate whether the trustmark registration will remain voluntary.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? What do you think the Trustmark of DTI is more of a hassle than a benefit for online sellers? Do you think the Trustmark should be scrapped entirely? What do you think should be done to help consumers find legitimate online merchants?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines September 2025 Inflation Reaches 1.7%

October 14, 2025October 7, 2025carlocarrasco

The annual inflation rate of the Philippines reached 1.7% this past September led by higher food prices, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Take note that August inflation was at 1.5% and business sentiment in the Philippines has weakened.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine annual inflation quickened for a second month, but it was still below the central bank’s 2% to 4% comfort range for the year, reinforcing expectations that a policy decision this week will be a close call between cutting rates and pausing.

The consumer price index rose 1.7% in September led by higher food prices, up from August’s 1.5%, the statistics agency said on Tuesday. It was below the 2.0% median forecast in a Reuters poll, and brought year-to-date average inflation to 1.7%.

The September rate, the fastest since March, comes just days before the central bank’s penultimate policy meeting of the year on Thursday.

“For the upcoming policy meeting, the Monetary Board will review newly available information and reassess the impact of prior monetary actions in light of evolving economic conditions and their implications for inflation and growth,” the Philippine central bank said in a statement.

At its August policy meeting, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) signalled another reduction was still possible this year before it concludes its easing cycle.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the inflation rate of the Philippines will reach as high as 3% by the end of 2025? Do you consider inflation as a major factor behind the modest economic growth of the country this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Trade Chief Points To Trump Tariffs As Country Braces For Dumping Of Products From Asian Neighbors

October 13, 2025October 12, 2025carlocarrasco

Here we go again with the perceived challenges related to the tariffs of Trump-led America. This time around the secretary of the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) pointed to the Trump tariffs which she said raised the risk of products from Asian neighbors getting dumped into the Philippines and potentially harm local industries, according to news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

For the newcomers reading this, the Trump administration had set a series of tariff rates for different nations in Asia. American tariff on Philippines-made products was set at 19% after the big meeting between US President Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr.

It is a known fact that many nations in Asia export their products to the United States but with the new tariffs in effect and the fact that the Philippines has a population of more than one hundred million people, the latter is anticipated to become the dumping ground of Asian products. This development is happening just as the economy of the Philippines will grow by less than 6% this year (click here, here and here). Recently, the US State Department published a report about pervasive corruption being a barrier to investment in the Philippines.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The recent increase in the United States’ tariff rates heightened the risk of Asian goods being dumped into the Philippine market, raising the need for more stringent measures to protect local industries, Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Secretary Cristina Roque said Wednesday.

Roque, in an interview on the sidelines of the Federation of Philippine Industries Inc. Business Summit in Makati City, said they expect increased entry of steel, cement, and garments, among others.

She traced this to the attractiveness of the Philippines as a market, given the country’s large population of over 100 million. She said DTI will work closely with the Bureau of Customs (BOC) to ensure that only registered and properly taxed goods enter the country.

The DTI will also coordinate with local industries to prevent the continued spread of unregistered products in the market.

On Tuesday, personnel from DTI’s Fair Trade Enforcement Bureau seized around PHP2 million worth of substandard construction materials from 24 retailers in Central Luzon as it strengthened its drive against uncertified and unsafe products in the market.

“We need to protect the manufacturing industry of the Philippines. So us, being in government, and us making sure we protect the jobs of the people,” she said.

Roque also noted that although investments continue to pour in, the volume is not what they had expected, thus, the need to boost local industries.

“So, we try to help them resolve whatever issues they have. And then we also at least help them strengthen or level up their businesses,” she explained.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think it is only a matter of time before a massive amount of Asian products (originally made for export to America) will arrive in the markets of the Philippines very soon? Did you notice any unregistered or sub-par quality products from overseas already being sold locally? What do you think can the DTI do to protect the local industries and livelihood of many Filipinos?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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IMF Sees Philippine Economy Growing 5.4% This Year And 5.7% Next Year

October 10, 2025October 3, 2025carlocarrasco

By citing factors like weaker-than-expected growth in the first half, the American tariffs on Philippine goods and geopolitical conflicts, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees the economy Philippines growing only 5.4% this year and 5.7% next year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH is expected to moderate this year and in 2026 amid ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions across the globe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

The IMF trimmed its Philippine growth forecast to 5.4% for this year, slightly lower than its 5.5% projection in July.

If realized, gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be at the low end of the National Government’s 5.5-6.5% target band this year.

For 2026, the IMF also cut its growth forecast to 5.7% from 5.9% previously. However, this is below the government’s 6-7% target for next year.

The IMF said the economy is expected to remain resilient, but downside risks warrant “close attention.”

“Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside. The main external risks stem from prolonged global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections,” IMF Mission Head Elif Arbatli Saxegaard said at a briefing after the conclusion of the 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Philippines on Wednesday.

“On the domestic front, more frequent and intense climate shocks would cause notable macroeconomic losses. On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms would support investor confidence and the fiscal multiplier and raise potential growth. Risks around inflation are broadly balanced.”

Ms. Saxegaard said the growth outlook was revised to reflect the weaker-than-expected growth in the first half. For the first half, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Ms. Saxegaard said growth will be affected by the higher tariffs imposed by the US on Philippine goods. The US began imposing a 19% tariff on goods from the Philippines on Aug. 7

“It will weigh on exports and investment,” she said.

She also noted growth will be “supported by monetary easing and recent legislative measures to promote private investment.”

Meanwhile, the IMF sees inflation averaging 1.6% this year, before picking up to 2.6% next year.

“The pickup in inflation is expected to be driven by (the) food and transport crisis,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “And that reflects essentially the decline in negative base effects that have been dragging down inflation this year. So, as those base effects recede, we expect a pickup.”

She said core inflation is expected to “remain muted” at 2.5% in 2026.

“The BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) has room for a slightly more accommodative stance to help bring inflation back to the target faster and reduce economic slack amid elevated downside risks to growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “Policy will need to remain data dependent amidst prevailing uncertainties around the output gap and the neutral rate, and two-sided risks to inflation.”

On Aug. 28, the central bank slashed its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) for a third consecutive time to 5%. It has cut the benchmark by a total of 150 bps since August last year.

CORRUPTION – Asked about recent corruption scandals involving some government projects, Ms. Saxegaard said the IMF will continue to monitor the developments.

“It’s not yet clear whether and how these allegations will impact investor and private sector confidence, as well as their perceptions and behavior,” she said.

The IMF welcomed recent reforms to reduce infrastructure gaps and promote foreign direct investment, but effective implementation is key.

“Enhancing fiscal governance and the rule of law and reducing corruption vulnerabilities are critical for inclusive and sustainable growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said.

The IMF urged the Philippine government to continue implementing gradual fiscal consolidation “to replenish fiscal buffers and support external balance.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the IMF’s prediction of weaker economic growth will turn out true? Do you think the flood control projects scandal and government corruption investigation are turning away foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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