economic recovery – Page 2 – Author Carlo Carrasco

Citigroup sees Philippine economy expanding by about 6% this year

January 28, 2025January 21, 2025carlocarrasco

In the perspective of Citigroup, Inc. (Citi), the economy of the Philippines will grow this year by around 6%, pointing to the growth of the business process outsourcing (BPO), according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld Some parts in boldface…

CITIGROUP, INC. (Citi) expects the Philippine economy to expand by around 6% this year, partly driven by sustained growth in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector.

“We expect the growth in 2025 to stay within the 6% handle,” Citi Asia South Head Amol Gupte said in an online briefing on Monday.

Citi’s forecast would be at the low end of the government’s 6-8% target for the year.

“The Philippines will continue to benefit from [the BPO industry] and will create a lot of jobs. On moving up the value chain on global capability centers, countries like the Philippines will play a very large role along with India,” Mr. Gupte said.

The information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) industry ended 2024 with $38 billion in export revenue, and 1.82 million full-time employees.

Under the Philippine IT-BPM Industry Roadmap, the target is to grow into a $59-billion industry and increase the full-time employee count to 2.5 million by 2028.

“So, I think it’s really important that the Philippines, as it thinks about the BPO industry, moves up the value chain so that it retains and bring more middle-office kinds of jobs beyond the voice jobs that exist in the tens of thousands,” Mr. Gupte said.

However, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could be a risk to the IT-BPM sector in the Philippines.

“There’s also the risk to that in terms of what AI will do to that industry and whether that will reduce jobs,” Mr. Gupte said.

Meanwhile, Citi South Asia Corporate Banking Head K Balasubramanian said sustained economic growth ensures that Philippine banks are well-positioned to continue to generate profits.

“I think the financial profile of the Filipino banks continues to be very strong, and with 6% growth I think they are well capitalized to look at the opportunities ahead,” he said.

As of end-September 2023, the Philippine banking system’s net profit rose by 6.4% to P290 billion as both net interest and non-interest income grew.

“We just saw the upgraded Philippine sovereign rating that happened in the fourth quarter of last year. And if you look at the impact of that on the Republic of Philippines, as well as the state-owned banks of the Philippines, I think that’s going to be crucially positive because we are now up to BBB+,” Mr. Balasubramanian said.

“(This) means that the ability to access international financing is going to be better and even the cost of the access is going to be better than what it was in the past.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Citgroup is correct about its research on the Philippine economy? Do you think the BPO industry will contribute a lot to the economic growth of the nation this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines attracts less than 6 million foreign tourists in 2024, points to tourism revenue for success

January 16, 2025January 7, 2025carlocarrasco

When it comes to the state of tourism in 2024, the Philippines achieved a mixed record by failing to reach its declared target of 7.7 million international visitors while still managing to achieve a new, all-time record with P760.5 billion in tourism revenue, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine tourism earned an all-time high revenue of PHP760.5 billion in 2024, translating to a 126.75 percent recovery rate from the 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

Revenues from inbound tourism expenditures — representing the total amount spent by non-resident visitors — were 9.04 percent higher compared to the PHP697.46 billion in 2023.

Department of Tourism (DOT) data showed earnings surpassed the estimated PHP600.01 billion in 2019 by an impressive 26.75 percent.

“With these figures, it is clear that the Philippine tourism industry is not only bouncing back but also evolving and expanding, contributing significantly to the nation’s economic stability and growth. In the past year, we have witnessed remarkable growth in tourism revenue, which has surpassed previous records,” Tourism Secretary Christina Frasco said Monday.

“This achievement is not just a statistic. It translates to thousands of jobs created for Filipinos, fostering economic resilience and enabling families to thrive,” she added.

She attributed this growth to the pro-tourism policies of the Marcos administration that prioritized the sustainable development of Philippine tourism resources.

“These policies focus on enhancing infrastructure, promoting heritage conservation and investing in skills development programs for our workforce, among others. We believe that the growth of tourism should be inclusive and equitable, empowering local entrepreneurs and communities,” she said.

Based on the World Travel and Tourism Council data, international tourists spend at least USD2,073 per capita.

From an average of nine nights in 2019, tourists are now staying an average of over 11 nights in the country, while 70 percent are repeat visitors.

Continued collaboration with stakeholders from the private sector also garnered about 63.18 percent repeat visitors in 2023, the DOT said.

Tourist arrivals – While falling short of its original target of 7.7 million, the DOT said the country still recorded growth in the number of foreign visitors last year at 5,949,350, up by 9.15 percent from the 5.45 million foreign guests recorded in 2023.

South Korea maintained its position as the top source of foreign tourists, with arrivals increasing to 1,574,152 from 1,455,977 in 2023, garnering more than 26.46 percent of the total market share.

Frasco cited the country’s “effective strategic marketing initiatives, enhanced air connectivity and strengthened cultural exchanges” for the sustained number of Korean tourists to the Philippines.

“Furthermore, the Philippines’ growing reputation as a prime destination for incentive travel has played a key role in this positive trend, attracting an increasing number of Korean companies hosting their reward trips for their employees in the Philippines’ world-class tourist destinations,” she said.

The United States ranked second, with 1,076,663 visitors in 2024, increasing from 1,041,305 in 2023. Enhanced connectivity, including nonstop flights from San Francisco to Manila by United Airlines and from Seattle to Manila by Philippine Airlines contributed to the growth of the market.

Japan, meanwhile, emerged as a standout market with a 22.84 percent growth in arrivals, reaching 444,528 visitors from its previous year’s 361,862.

The surge was attributed to aggressive tourism campaigns and strategic partnerships with Japanese travel agencies that paved further awareness and interest in the Philippines as a travel destination.

Though significantly lower than the pre-pandemic figures, China showed signs of recovery with 313,856 arrivals compared to 264,922 in the previous year.

This can be attributed, the DOT said, to the increased number of flights from 2023, both commercial and chartered, including the first half of 2024, connecting China directly to Cebu, Bohol, and Davao.

Cruise ships also started to arrive during the second half of 2024, with the new visa waiver program becoming an important factor for the improved numbers.

Other consistent contributors included Australia (299,286) and Canada (269,300). Emerging markets like Taiwan and Singapore demonstrated strong growth momentum, with arrivals reaching 213,833 and 198,471, respectively.

The introduction of direct flights to Kalibo in Aklan and Puerto Princesa in Palawan, as well as the growth of niche markets such as English as Second Language (ESL) learning and diving, contributed greatly to the visits of guests from Taiwan.

The United Kingdom likewise sustained its position among the top contributors with 178,656 visitors, driven by a keen interest in heritage tourism and adventure activities. Meanwhile, Malaysia emerged 10th with 99,881 registered arrivals in 2024.

The DOT said the Middle Eastern market similarly showed promising signs of recovery in 2024.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) posted a remarkable 668.34 percent recovery rate from its 2019 figures, reflecting increased air connectivity and a surge in interest in the Philippines as a leisure destination. Qatar followed closely, with an impressive 832.87 percent recovery rate, and Saudi Arabia with 66.54 percent growth.

Likewise, Oman and Bahrain registered more than 200 percent recovery rates from the 2019 number of arrivals, the DOT said.

Those in the top 25 source markets which have fully recovered as compared with 2019 data included Australia (102.63 percent), Canada (109.26 percent), Hong Kong (106.79 percent), UAE (668.34 percent), Italy (143.02 percent), Spain (111.08 percent), Guam (200.19 percent), New Zealand (100.50 percent) and Switzerland (102.01 percent).

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think it is safe to call 2024 a successful year of tourism for the Philippines with regards to the record-high tourism revenue achieved? Do you think the Philippines will be able to attract at least 6 million foreign tourists this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Maharlika Investment Corp. (MIC) to make first investment this quarter

January 15, 2025January 7, 2025carlocarrasco

The Maharlika Investment Corp. (MIC) – the entity responsible for making investments on behalf of the Philippines – will be making its first investment within the first quarter of 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Take note that it has been over eighteen months since the Maharlika Investment Fund was formally signed into law. The IRR (implementing rules and regulations) has already been finalized.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE MAHARLIKA Investment Corp. (MIC) is expected to make its first investment this quarter, most likely in the energy sector, its top official said.

“Definitely the first quarter. I think we had a year to set up. We had a year to basically put our governance in place. We obtained our formal approval to begin hiring last end of July,” MIC President and Chief Executive Officer Rafael D. Consing, Jr. said in an interview with BusinessWorld on Jan. 2.

The MIC has yet to make any investments since President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed the law creating the country’s first wealth fund in July 2023. The Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF) had initially committed to make its first investments before the end of 2024.

Mr. Consing said sovereign wealth fund is “ready” and backed with funding and the needed workforce, but will not invest “without the benefit of due diligence.”

MIC earned P2.3 billion in interest income in 2024, Mr. Consing said.

Under the law, the Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) and the Land Bank of the Philippines were mandated to contribute P25 billion and P50 billion, respectively, as the initial seed capital for the MIF. The two state lenders have remitted the funds to the Bureau of the Treasury in September 2023.

Mr. Consing said the MIC’s strategic plan will be up for board approval on Jan. 9. This after it made some changes after meeting with the Governance Commission for Government-Owned and -Controlled Corporations (GCG) before the holidays, he added.

The MIC is looking into investing in energy, food security, healthcare, and resource development, particularly mining.

“In the first quarter, that would be the energy sector. Healthcare, if it turns out okay, if our due diligence results turn out okay, first half. I would say early second quarter for the latter two,” Mr. Consing said.

Mr. Consing said he believes that investments in the energy sector, particularly transmission lines, would be “most impactful.”

“That’s why ideally, we’d like to be able to buy into the national grid, if we’re able to. Or number two, we have also separately signed MOUs (memoranda of understanding) with the likes of Mindoro and Palawan, which fall under the SPUGS [small power utilities group] category,” he said.

In 2024, the MIC signed an agreement with Occidental and Oriental Mindoro to support investments in critical energy infrastructure.

“There are about 34 SPUGS in the country. The two biggest are Mindoro and Palawan. And we believe that given the contribution of Palawan when it comes to tourism, and also the population that lives in there, and the potential contribution of Mindoro in respect to the entire electricity sector in the Philippines, we felt that these are two priority areas where we can help, in fact, build transmission lines,” he said.

However, Mr. Consing declined to comment on the MIC’s plan to invest in the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP).

He said the National Power Corp. is currently doing an inventory of all its assets in Mindoro and MIC “will have to sit down and determine which part of those assets it would need as part of the expansion of these lines.”

“Where we are now is we’re procuring the services of the technical consultant and the team that will be putting together the whole feasibility study. Because all of these will require regulatory approval by the Energy Regulatory Commission,” he added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that the MIC will be able to make smart decisions with regards to making the investments? Do you think the Maharlika Investment Fund will make positive impact on the market and encourage others to invest?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Stakeholders and analysts perceive VAT refund limit for tourists just right to ensure small businesses will benefit

January 3, 2025December 27, 2024carlocarrasco

As far as the analysts and tourism stakeholders are concerned, the minimum purchase requirement for non-resident tourists to qualify for the value-added tax refund is just right in relation to benefiting the small businesses, according to a BusinessWorld news report. There is, however, one dissenting opinion.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE P3,000 ($51) minimum purchase requirement for nonresident tourists to qualify for a value-added tax (VAT) refund is “just right” to ensure small businesses benefit, analysts said.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. recently signed into law Republic Act (RA) No. 12079, which allows tourists to claim VAT refunds on purchases worth at least P3,000 from government-accredited stores, in an effort to boost tourism receipts.

“The P3,000 is just right to benefit micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) retailers and local products,” Philippine Retailers Association (PRA) President Roberto S. Claudio said. He said the purchase cap is kept to a minimum to benefit locally made products.

“I think it’s a good entry and good starting point. Some countries are still higher than P3,000 as well. I think we’re above the middle, so I think that’s a good place to be,” Tourism Congress of the Philippines President James M. Montenegro said via phone call.

Under RA 12079, the value of the locally bought goods from accredited stores must reach at least P3,000 per transaction, provided these goods are taken out of the country within 60 days of purchase.

“This law is primarily designed to boost tourist arrivals and expenditure. Hopefully, it will also increase the sales revenue of retailers,” Mr. Claudio said.

Mr. Montenegro said the minimum purchase amount could be adjusted in the future.

The threshold is subject to review and adjustment every three years by the Finance secretary, upon recommendation of the Commissioner of Internal Revenue, considering the inflation data from the statistics agency.

“I think the minimum rate is at par with our ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] neighbors. If you look at the minimum amounts in other countries, it is almost the same,” Eleanor L. Roque, a tax principal at P&A Grant Thornton, told BusinessWorld.

The Philippines has joined other ASEAN countries with a tax refund program for nonresident tourists. The scheme has increased retail activity, particularly in sectors such as fashion, electronics and souvenirs.

In Malaysia, the minimum purchase is 300 ringgit ($67). Singapore allows tourists to spend at least S$100 ($74), while in Indonesia, it starts at 500,000 rupiah ($31).

“It is good to have a minimum amount as it limits the refund claim to valuable expenses. De minimis spendings are normally not considered for VAT refund as it is not administratively practical. In some cases, the cost will be more expensive than the amount being refunded,” Ms. Roque said.

She said the government should tap accredited international firms in the VAT refund processing, adding that the “government should take advantage of the track record and best practices of these known companies.”

Ms. Roque said the government should ensure the goods bought are really brought out of the country.

“Physical inspection of the goods when exiting the country should be strict to ensure that local buyers do not use tourists for availing themselves of the VAT refund,” she added.

However, Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said the P3,000 threshold “may not be enough to significantly encourage higher spending among affluent tourists,” especially compared with ASEAN counterparts.

“A higher or more flexible threshold might align better with international best practices and encourage larger purchases,” he said.

Mr. Rivera also urged the government to simplify the VAT refund process, rather than make it “extra bureaucratic.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you consider the current purchase requirement for the VAT refund for foreign tourists a proper amount? Do you think foreign tourists will be receptive to the current standard for VAT refund of their purchases here in the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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The newest polymer bank notes from the BSP

January 2, 2025January 2, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) unveiled the newest polymer bank notes which were described as crisp and capable of withstanding tough conditions, according to a news feature by the Manila Bulletin.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the article of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

The familiar crinkle of a crisp paper bill, the faded ink from countless transactions, the subtle tear at the edge – these are the hallmarks of the Philippine piso as many know it. But come January, Filipinos will begin to experience a currency revolution.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is ushering in a new era with the first series of polymer banknotes, a move that signifies more than just a change in material. It’s a leap towards a more secure, sustainable, and hygienic future for the nation’s currency.

Imagine pulling out a banknote that feels smoother, almost plastic-like, and noticing intricate details that shimmer under the light. This is the promise of the new polymer piso.

These banknotes, designed to last longer and withstand the rigors of daily use, are imbued with advanced security features that make counterfeiting a near impossibility. Microprinting, tactile elements, and clear windows are just some of the technologies embedded within these notes, providing a robust defense against fraudulent activities and bolstering public confidence in the currency.

“We have the mandate of issuing the currency, and we always try to look for ways to improve our currency,” explains BSP Assistant Governor Mary Anne Lim. “In improving our currency, we consider the needs of our users in utilizing it, and also advances in technology when it comes to printing and using our banknotes.”

The shift to polymer addresses a critical concern in today’s world: hygiene. Paper banknotes, passing through countless hands, can harbor bacteria and viruses. Polymer notes, on the other hand, are less hospitable to these pathogens.

Their non-porous surface makes it harder for microbes to cling and survive, contributing to a healthier and safer transaction experience in a post-pandemic world.

But the BSP’s vision goes beyond practicality. The new banknotes are also an opportunity to celebrate the Philippines’ rich biodiversity and cultural heritage.

Each denomination features a carefully chosen endangered species, a poignant reminder of the country’s unique natural treasures and the need for their conservation.

The 1,000-piso note, already in circulation since April 2022, showcases the majestic Philippine eagle soaring above the Tubbataha Reefs Natural Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

The 500-piso note features the elusive Visayan spotted deer amidst the lush greenery of the Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park.

The 100-piso note highlights the vibrant Palawan peacock-pheasant against the backdrop of the iconic Mayon Volcano, while the 50-piso note presents the playful Visayan leopard cat with the serene Taal Lake in the background.

These visuals are complemented by intricate designs inspired by traditional weaving patterns, showcasing the artistry and craftsmanship of different Filipino communities. The banknotes, therefore, become more than just a medium of exchange; they transform into miniature canvases that tell a story of the Philippines’ natural wonders and cultural heritage.

“The polymer series raises awareness of the country’s threatened species, serves as a symbol of Filipino identity, and fosters national pride,” shares BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr., highlighting the inspiration and symbolism behind the chosen themes

The environmental impact of currency production is another crucial factor considered by the BSP.

Polymer banknotes, with their longer lifespan, reduce the need for frequent replacements. This translates to less paper consumption, lower energy use in production, and a smaller carbon footprint. The BSP’s commitment to sustainability is evident in this conscious choice of material, aligning with the global push towards eco-friendly practices.

The transition to polymer banknotes is a milestone in the Philippines’ journey towards modernization. It’s a testament to the BSP’s proactive approach to currency management, ensuring that the Philippine piso remains secure, resilient, and relevant in a rapidly changing world.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Are you receptive towards the newest polymer bank notes from the BSP? What do you think of the new P500, P100 and P50 bills? Do you have a problem about the new bills not showing historical people of the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Department of Tourism’s (DOT) 2025 plans unveiled

December 31, 2024December 20, 2024carlocarrasco

To keep on strengthening the drive of tourism all over the Philippines, the Department of Tourism (DOT) recently unveiled its plans for 2025, according to a Manila Times news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Times. Some parts in boldface…

The Department of Tourism (DOT) unveiled its plans for 2025 to propel Philippine tourism to new heights and give travelers more reason to love the Philippines.

“Tourism will be a cornerstone of our nation’s recovery. We embraced the challenge—not just to rebuild but to innovate, not just to promote, but to develop, to transform, to lead,” Tourism Secretary Christina Garcia-Frasco said at the DOT’s year-end press briefing on Tuesday.

The DOT has formed a partnership with the Department of Health (DOH) to develop Tourist First Aid Facilities and is in talks with key government agencies to establish tourist courts that will be open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to “resolve tourist-related crimes.”

Tourist First Aid Facilities will be established in tourist-heavy locations such as La Union, Boracay Island in Aklan, Siargao Island in Surigao del Norte, Panglao Island in Bohol, Palawan, and Puerto Galera.

The department will also soon initiate “Layover Tours” as part of the Hop-on Hop-off Bus Tours program, which Frasco said “would make layovers more enjoyable and provide seamless access to our iconic attractions.”

The Philippines Hop-on Hop-off Bus Tours program, which started in 2023, allows solo and group tourists to plan fast, self-guided trips using an advanced bus network and a specific smartphone app.

The DOT also plans to establish the “Golf Experience” initiative, which Frasco described as “geared to enthusiasts motivated to discover the world-class golf destinations.”

It will continue to construct more Tourist Rest Areas across the country, equipped with new features such as rainwater harvesting facilities and solar panels, in addition to basic amenities such as clean and adequate restrooms, a tourism information center, and a pasalubong center.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the DOT’s plans for the new year will create positive results for the nation’s tourism industry? Do you think the DOT should recognize special events like car shows, fashion shows, film festivals and cosplay events so that more local and foreign tourists could join them?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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DTI exceeds 2024 investment approval target

December 30, 2024December 20, 2024carlocarrasco

More than P1.6 trillion in approved investments have been confirmed and this means that the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) exceeded its target for 2024, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said approved investments already surpassed the 2024 target.

In a statement on Thursday, DTI said investments approved by the Board of Investments (BOI) amounted to PHP1.62 trillion, surpassing the PHP1.5 trillion target. It was also higher than the PHP1.26 trillion approved investments in 2023.

In a separate statement, the BOI said energy sector, specifically the renewable energy projects, recorded the biggest surge in approvals, totaling PHP1.38 trillion, up by 40 percent year-on-year.

Other sectors which recorded the biggest increase include air and water transport at PHP121.20 billion; real estate activities (mass housing) at PHP37.26 billion; manufacturing at PHP31.67 billion; water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities at PHP16.28 billion; agriculture, forestry, and fishing at PHP11.02 billion; wholesale and retail at PHP8.25 billion; and information technology-business process management at PHP7.34 billion.

The Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), meanwhile, approved PHP214.17 billion in investments, surpassing the PHP200 billion target for the year.

“We are pleased to report significant progress in attracting investments this year. These investments will fuel job creation, drive innovation, and foster dynamic economic progress. By focusing on international trade, we are laying the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth,” Trade Secretary Cristina Roque said.

“As we approach 2025, we are determined to build on this positive momentum. We will continue to refine and implement forward-looking policies that attract investments in these key industries, ensuring that the Philippines remains a prime destination for innovation and growth.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the P1.62 trillion in approved investments will have a big effect on the national economy in 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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DBCC adjusts Philippines GDP growth targets for 2024 to 2028

December 11, 2024December 3, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) adjusted its economic growth targets for the Philippines covering the next few years in relation to varied factors, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on Monday trimmed the economic growth target for this year to a range of 6-6.5% but widened the target band to 6-8% for 2025 until 2028, due to “evolving domestic and global uncertainties.”

Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman, who chairs the DBCC, said Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) is now projected to grow by 6-6.5% this year, narrower than the previous 6-7% goal.

“Despite domestic challenges, we are optimistic that we can still attain our growth target for the year of 6% to 6.5%. In particular, we expect the Philippine economy to bounce back during the last quarter, given the anticipated increase in holiday spending, continued disaster recovery efforts, low inflation, and a robust labor market,” she said at a briefing after a DBCC meeting on Monday afternoon.

The DBCC’s review of the macroeconomic assumptions came after the Philippine economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 5.2% in the third quarter, which was the slowest since the 4.3% logged in the second quarter of 2023.

In the first nine months, GDP growth averaged 5.8%. To meet the lower end of the government’s revised 6-6.5% target band, the economy would need to grow by 6.5% in the fourth quarter.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said the Philippine economy can still “realistically” grow by 6% for the full year.

“The growth assumptions for 2025 to 2028 have been given a wider band of 6% to 8%, reflecting the anticipated impact of structural reforms and evolving domestic and global uncertainties,” Ms. Pangandaman said.

To achieve the targets, she said the government is committed to “accelerating infrastructure investments, enhancing the ease of doing business, and boosting national competitiveness.”

The DBCC chair said they expect the recently signed Republic Act No. 12066 or Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act to spur faster growth and attract more foreign investments.

FISCAL program – “We have maintained our medium-term fiscal targets for 2025 to 2028. This means that we remain determined to reduce the country’s deficit in a more gradual and realistic manner, while also bolstering long-term investments that create more jobs, increase incomes, and decrease poverty incidence,” Ms. Pangandaman said.

The DBCC said it raised the deficit ceiling for 2024 to -5.7% of GDP from -5.6% previously. It kept the deficit ceiling at -5.3% of GDP for 2025, -4.7% for 2026, -4.1% for 2027 and -3.7% for 2028.

For this year, the DBCC raised the revenue outlook to P4.383 trillion in 2024 from P4.27 trillion previously. Revenue targets were kept at P4.644 trillion for 2025, P5.063 trillion for 2026, P5.627 trillion for 2027, and P6.249 trillion for 2028.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the DBCC is correct with its GDP projections for the Philippines for the next few years?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Lower-than-expected economic growth for the Philippines until 2025

November 26, 2024November 19, 2024carlocarrasco

Based on the recent findings of Citigroup, Inc., the growth domestic product (GDP) of the Philippines will grow at a lower-than-expected rate until 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to expand slower than the government’s target until 2025, Citigroup, Inc. (Citi) said.

Citi cut its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.8% this year but kept its 6% growth forecast for 2025. This is below the government’s 6-7% target this year and 6.5-7.5% goal next year.

“We lowered 2024 GDP growth slightly from 6% to 5.8%, mainly due to a weak third-quarter outturn that had been a result of several temporary, weather-related factors,” Citi economist for Thailand and the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham said in a report.

The Philippine economy slowed to 5.2% in the July-to-September period from 6.4% in the second quarter and 6% a year ago. This was also the weakest growth since the 4.3% expansion in the second quarter of last year.

“Nonetheless, we think it would be misleading to view the weaker third-quarter expansion as the start of a slowdown as several negative factors in the third quarter are one-off events,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

She said the weakness in third-quarter economic growth mainly stemmed from the drop in agriculture production, construction activity and net exports.

Despite the weak third quarter, Citi expects growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter as domestic demand is seen to pick up due to easing inflation and lower rates.

“We expect fourth-quarter 2024 GDP growth to accelerate to 6% year on year. Household consumption is expected to continue improving, supported by lower interest rates and improved consumer sentiment as inflation continues to stabilize.”

In the first nine months, GDP grew by 5.8%. The economy would need to grow by at least 6.5% in the fourth quarter to meet the lower end of the government’s 6-7% target.

“With the storm season passing soon, we also expect infrastructure projects’ progress to proceed at a faster clip in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

Domestic demand will also likely be sustained by improving employment conditions, remittance growth and bank lending.

“The RRR (reserve requirement ratio) cut of 250 basis points (bps), effective on Oct. 25, would also release more liquidity into the banking system and likely continue to support strong credit expansion,” Ms. Chutchotitham added.

The central bank last month reduced the RRR for universal and commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 bps to 7%.

“We also maintain our expectation of 6% growth in 2025 but see some upside risks due to tailwinds from more rate cuts,” Citi said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will likely cut by 25 bps in December and by a total of 75 bps next year, according to Citi.

This year so far, the central bank has reduced interest rates by 50 bps since August. The Monetary Board is set to hold its last rate-setting meeting of the year on Dec. 19.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines still has enough momentum to exceed the 4^th quarter growth targets of economists?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines 3rd quarter economic growth settles at 5.2%

November 12, 2024November 8, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently it was announced that the economy of the Philippines expanded by 5.2% in the 3^rd quarter of 2024, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines remains one of the fastest growing economies in the region despite the slowdown in the third quarter of the year, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said on Thursday.

Philippine economic growth settled at 5.2 percent in the third quarter, lower than the 6 percent recorded in the same period last year.

The latest data brought the year-to-date gross domestic product (GDP) expansion to 5.8 percent, slightly under the 6-percent lower end of the government’s growth target for this year.

“Our economy continues to grow steadily; the latest GDP figures indicate continuous expansion. Of the countries that have reported their third-quarter GDP growth rates, we remain one of the fastest-growing Asian economies,” Balisacan said in a briefing at the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) office in Quezon City.

“We follow Vietnam, which posted a 7.4 percent growth rate, and are ahead of Indonesia (with 4.9 percent), China (4.6 percent), and Singapore (4.1 percent), ” he added.

Among the major economic sectors, industry and services grew by 5 percent and 6.3 percent in the third quarter.

National Statistician Dennis Mapa said, however, that agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector contracted by 2.8 percent.

Balisacan explained that the contraction in the agriculture sector was due to the effects of El Niño, seven typhoons, and Habagat. He added the fishing ban in Cavite and Bataan due to the oil spill, and cancellation of fishing trips due to bad weather conditions, also affected fishing and aquaculture.

“Likewise, livestock production decreased due to the recent outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), such as in Batangas last August,” he said.

Balisacan said the successive typhoons also suspended classes and work in government and some private offices, resulting in administrative delays.

Household final consumption expenditure grew by 5.1 percent, which Balisacan attributed to the slower consumer price inflation. Government final consumption expenditure slowed to 5 percent from 6.7 percent.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will grow much faster in the 4^th quarter?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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