BusinessWorld – Page 5 – Author Carlo Carrasco

World Bank (WB) sees strong Philippine economic growth in 2024 and 2025

October 22, 2024October 11, 2024carlocarrasco

By citing positive factors in its latest report, the World Bank (WB) raised its Philippine economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE World Bank (WB) has raised its economic growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and in 2025, driven by improved service exports and public investments.

But weak consumption and investment will keep the country’s growth below pre-pandemic levels, it said.

In its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, the Washington-based multilateral lender now expects the Philippine economy to grow by 6% this year from 5.8%.

The Philippines could become the second-fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia, behind Vietnam (6.1%) and ahead of Cambodia (5.3%), Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.9%), Laos (4.1%), Timor-Leste (3%), Thailand (2.4%) and Myanmar (1%).

“Among the larger countries, only Indonesia is expected to grow in 2024 and 2025 above pre-pandemic levels, while growth in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam is expected to be below those levels,” the World Bank said.

For 2025, it forecasts Philippine economic output to expand by 6.1% from 5.9% in its April forecast.

The lender’s growth forecasts for the Philippines are at the low end of the government’s target of 6-7% for 2024 and below the 6.5-7.5% goal for next year.

The Philippine economy grew by 6.3% in the second quarter, faster than 5.8% in the previous quarter and 4.3% a year ago. In the first half, growth averaged 6%.

The World Bank said service exports and public investment have supported Philippine economic growth, but consumption and private investment remain weak.

From 2024 to 2026, the lender expects the Philippine economy to grow by an average of 6%, it said in a separate report.

This will be supported by remittances, jobs, slower inflation and external demand. However, weaker growth in China, global economic slowdown and weather disruptions are risks to the outlook.

It also projects the government’s budget deficit to fall to 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2026 due to improved state spending. This is slightly below the 4.73% target for the year.

Better revenue collection will be supported by key tax measures, improved tax administration and higher dividends from state-owned corporations, the World Bank said.

The lender also raised this year’s growth forecast for the East Asia-Pacific region to 4.8% from 4.5% in April.

“Most East Asia-Pacific economies are expected to experience robust growth in 2024, supported by private consumption and a positive external environment,” according to the report. In 2025, the region is expected to grow by 4.4% from its previous forecast of 4.3%.

However, domestic demand is expected to moderate in the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, while private investment growth remains weak across the region.

“Investment growth has been declining across most countries in the region over the past two decades, with particularly sharp drops in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and more recently, the Philippines.”

It also noted that the Philippines and Malaysia have kept a conservative fiscal stance due to their higher structural deficit this year.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines has enough momentum to exceed the WB’s economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Further rate cuts by BSP could boost demand for condominium units and new residential projects in Metro Manila

October 18, 2024October 10, 2024carlocarrasco

Here in Metro Manila, there is currently an oversupply of condominium units. Further rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could boost demand for existing condominium units and also new residential projects within the metropolis, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

FURTHER RATE CUTS by the Philippine central bank could help spur new residential project launches and drive take-up of existing condominiums in Metro Manila, a property consultant said.

In its third-quarter property market report, Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC) said the inventory level of condominium units in Metro Manila has reached 67,600 units across 510 buildings — “the highest since the pandemic.”

“It’s an oversupply of the buildings in the market at 29 months’ supply. (Developers) have been slowly launching new projects,” LPC Research Director Roy Amado Golez said at a briefing on Oct. 8.

Quezon City and Ortigas (plus fringe areas) have the most number of unsold condominium units at 18,000 and 13,500, respectively.

High interest rates may have dampened demand for residential condominiums in Metro Manila. LPC said 6,885 units were sold in the July-to-September period, “close to the 7,000 level for the third straight quarter.”

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) had kept its policy rate at an over 17-year high of 6.5% from October 2023 to mid-August 2024. It reduced the benchmark rate to 6.25% at its Aug. 15 meeting.

“The interest rate levels today are still at elevated levels, at 6.25%. However, we’ll be likely seeing rate cuts in October as well as December. Hopefully, those rate cuts will boost… the residential market,” Mr. Golez said.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier signaled the Monetary Board could deliver two 25-basis-point (bp) rate cuts at each of its two remaining meetings this year.

LPC said rate cuts would help ease lending conditions for both developers and homebuyers, as well as encourage developers to launch new projects.

Muted demand may have prompted developers to defer new residential projects. New project launches plunged by 39% to 2,145 units in the quarter ending September, which LPC said was the lowest since the pandemic.

“What developers are most likely doing now is reselling or re-launching or reintroducing marketing programs for their current inventory,” Mr. Golez said, adding that lower interest rates may provide a lift to sales in the next few quarters.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the BSP should reduce the rates soon so that the residential market of Metro Manila will be reinvigorated? Are there any families in your local community who intend to buy a condominium unit and live in it?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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AMRO sees Philippine economy growing 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025

October 15, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

In its recent update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) sees the economy of the Philippines achieving growth of 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES will likely post the second-fastest growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus 3 (ASEAN+3) region this year and in 2025, driven by faster government spending and easing interest rates, according to a regional think tank.

In its October update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines at 6.1% this year and 6.3% next year.

“We didn’t change the forecast for the Philippines. As you can see, we expect growth to be at 6.1%, which will be an improvement from last year’s 5.6%,” AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor told a virtual briefing on Thursday.

“This is mainly because we expect government investment spending to be higher this year, together with services exports,” he said.

The AMRO’s projection is within the government’s 6-7% target for 2024. However, its 2025 forecast is below the government’s 6.5-7.5% goal.

Mr. Khor said Philippine economic growth remains one of the strongest in the ASEAN+3 region, which includes members of the ASEAN, China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.

AMRO’s growth forecast for the Philippines is just behind Vietnam (6.2%), and ahead of Cambodia (5.6%), Indonesia (5.1%), China (5%), Malaysia (4.7%), Laos (4.5%), Brunei Darussalam (4%), Hong Kong (3.3%), Thailand (2.8%), South Korea (2.5%), Singapore (2.4%), Myanmar (1.8%) and Japan (0.5%).

Philippine growth is also projected to be above the projected ASEAN+3 average of 4.2% this year. This was slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.4%.

“Growth for the region will be driven by continued recovery in external trade, resilient domestic demand, and a boost in tourism due to relaxed visa policies in some economies,” AMRO said.

For 2025, the ASEAN+3 region’s growth forecast was upgraded to 4.4% from 4.3% previously, in line with expectations of steady global growth.

“The region is on track to achieve steady growth this year and the next and this will be underpinned by resilient domestic demand and the ongoing recovery in exports,” AMRO Principal Economist Allen Ng told the briefing.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation the Philippine economy has enough momentum to grow better in 2025 than what AMRO predicted?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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At least 4 more airports expected to be privatized in 2025

October 14, 2024October 9, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the Department of Transportation (DOTr) announced that at least four more airports are expected to be privatized in 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Clearly the recent privatization of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) sparked a wave of change with regards to air travel and the need to modernize airports.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

AT LEAST four more Philippine airports in the countryside are expected to be privatized in 2025, the Department of Transportation (DoTr) said last week.

“For next year, we have Iloilo, Puerto Princesa and Kalibo [airports],” Transportation Undersecretary Roberto C.O. Lim told reporters on the sidelines of an aviation forum. “We have ongoing negotiations with the proponents.”

The agency also expects to launch the competitive tender for the Davao International Airport under a public-private partnership (PPP) program.

Villar-led Prime Asset Ventures, Inc. holds the original proponent status for both P14.7-billion Iloilo International Airport and P10.24-billion Puerto Princesa International Airport, according to the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center website.

Meanwhile, Mega7 Construction Corp. has submitted an unsolicited proposal to operate, upgrade and maintain the P3.62-billion Kalibo International Airport.

Mr. Lim said the government expects to award the contract for the operations and maintenance of New Bohol-Panglao International Airport this year. The contract is undergoing a Swiss challenge, which allows other companies to submit alternative proposals that the original proponent can match.

In September, the infrastructure arm of the Aboitiz Group got the contract for the operations and maintenance of the P12.75-billion Laguindingan International Airport in Northern Mindanao.

Aboitiz InfraCapital, Inc. is expected to sign the contract this month, the Transportation department said, adding that the new private operator would take over operations by next year.

The same company also holds the original proponent status for the operations and maintenance of the P4.5-billion Bohol airport.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you approve of having more airports nationwide to get privatized? Do you have any concerns about the private entities mentioned in the report that want to privatize the other airports?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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World Bank says that Philippines inflation will likely slow down this year

October 6, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

The World Bank (WB) recently announced that it sees inflation in the Philippines likely to go down this year and fall within the target range set by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE INFLATION is likely to slow this year to fall within the central bank’s target range, but higher transport charges and domestic rice production pose upside risks, the World Bank said.

In its latest monthly update, the World Bank said that the entry of more rice imports under lower tariffs should help keep inflation within the government’s 2-4% target.

“Inflation resumed its downward trend in August and is on track to fall within target this year,” the Washington-based lender said.

The consumer price index (CPI) eased to 3.3% in August from 4.4% in July. Inflation averaged 3.6% in the first seven months.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects inflation to average 3.4% this year.

“The balance of risks to the outlook has shifted toward the downside given expected reductions in rice prices as more imports arrive under the reduced tariff regime,” the World Bank said.

An executive order cutting tariffs on rice to 15% from 35% took effect in July. This helped rice inflation ease to 14.7% in August from 20.9% in July.

However, the World Bank said higher transport and electricity charges, as well as possible global oil and food price shocks still provide upside risks to the inflation outlook.

“Domestic rice production and prices also remain vulnerable with the La Niña weather phenomenon expected to bring more rainfall and intense typhoons in the remaining months of the year,” World Bank said.

Meanwhile, the World Bank said recent external and domestic developments have given the BSP more space for policy easing.

“Peso appreciation, driven by a wider US interest rate differential, supports domestic disinflation. This gives more room for further normalization of domestic monetary policy,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation in the Philippines will continue to slow down as the end of 2024 approaches?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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NEDA sees faster Philippines GDP growth in the 2nd half of 2024

September 17, 2024September 12, 2024carlocarrasco

Citing some factors, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) sees faster gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Philippine economy in the 2^nd half of this year which should result in a full 2024 growth rate of 6% to 7%, according to a BusinessWorld new report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second semester could be faster than the 6% average in the first half amid easing inflation and lower policy rates, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.

“Now, with inflation lower, with policy rates lower, with the labor market continuing to be robust, I think we would see an even better second half than in the first half,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of a Senate hearing on Wednesday.

In the second quarter, GDP expanded by 6.3%, bringing the first-half growth to 6%.

“We are expecting 6-7% (GDP growth) for the full year, and I think that the likelihood that we’ll achieve that is now very high,” Mr. Balisacan said.

However, even as inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.3% in August, Mr. Balisacan noted that the economy remains sensitive to inflationary pressures.

Year to date, inflation averaged 3.6%, settling within the 2-4% target range of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The inflation downtrend has allowed the BSP to begin its easing cycle with its first rate cut in nearly four years last August. The Monetary Board lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% from the over 17-year high of 6.25% previously.

Mr. Balisacan noted the impact of lower policy rates “is not almost instantaneous.”

Despite this, the Philippine and US central banks’ expected easing path should help boost investment activity and support growth, he said.

“Especially now that the expectations everywhere with the Fed expected to decrease (interest rates)… then, there is now greater stimulus for us to continue lowering the policy rates,” he said. “With the business community hearing that, they are likely to rethink their investment plans.”

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier signaled another 25-bp cut in the fourth quarter. The last two Monetary Board meetings for the year are scheduled on Oct. 17 and Dec. 19.

Meanwhile, GDP growth is expected to settle within the government’s target range this year, but may fall short of the growth goals in the next two years, according to the latest forecasts from the BSP’s Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to achieve GDP growth of 7% for 2024?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Improving foreign investment outlook for Philippines seen

September 12, 2024September 4, 2024carlocarrasco

As far as analysts are concerned, the foreign investment outlook for the Philippines is improving and should result in more investments, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

LOWER INTEREST RATES will help drive the entry of more foreign direct and portfolio investments into the Philippines, analysts said.

“The outlook for foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in the Philippines appears promising, with current trends suggesting the country could meet or potentially exceed the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) targets,” Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in a Viber message.

The BSP expects to record FDI net inflows of $9.5 billion this year. For foreign portfolio investments, it forecasts $3.1 billion in net inflows by yearend.

“The BSP’s forecast for the year sounds reasonable, as it wouldn’t be too far a stretch, with that sort of level of annual FDI coming into the Philippines almost consistently over this period, barring the coronavirus-hit year in 2020,” Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said in an e-mail.

In the January-to-May period, FDI net inflows jumped by 15.8% year on year to $4.024 billion, data from the BSP showed.

Meanwhile, short-term foreign investments yielded a net inflow of $1.46 billion in the January-July period, surging from the $157.3-million net inflows in the same period a year ago.

FDIs are considered long-term investments, while portfolio investments or “hot money” are seen as more fickle due to the ease by which these funds enter and leave the economy.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said the BSP’s investment targets are doable amid easing interest rates.

“Offering attractive rates will be the key. All around will be declining key rates, thus, offering sensible investments now will lock in gains for prospective investors. I would like to believe that there is time,” he added.

Mr. Roces said the further reduction in policy rates this year and next year “should stimulate investment activity, particularly for FDI, by making borrowing more attractive.”

At its August meeting, the Monetary Board cut rates for the first time in nearly four years or since November 2020. It reduced borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps), bringing the benchmark rate to 6.25% from the previous over 17-year high of 6.5%.

The central bank could also deliver another 25-bp rate hike in the fourth quarter, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said earlier.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you agree with the findings of the economic analysts pointing to improving foreign investment outlook for the nation?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Filinvest Hospitality Corp. makes big bet on Philippine tourism

September 6, 2024September 1, 2024carlocarrasco

Filinvest Hospitality Corp. (FHC) announced that it is betting big on Philippine tourism with its newest move to add a few thousand more new rooms over the next five years to accommodate tourists, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

GOTIANUN-LED Filinvest Hospitality Corp. (FHC) is aiming to add close to 2,000 new rooms in the next five years, a company official said.

“We’re looking at adding close to 2,000 keys. It’s more about the quality of the keys and the spread as opposed to the number,” FHC First Senior Vice-President Francis Nathaniel C. Gotianun told reporters on the sidelines of the Shareholders’ Association of the Philippines’ third general membership meeting in Makati City on Tuesday.

“We’re focusing on key tourist destinations across the country. We’re working on a collection of the top spots so when we go out into the international market or even the domestic market, we can sell all the good destinations, whether that be Boracay, Palawan, Bohol, Baguio, or Cebu. We’re trying to catch them all,” he added.

FHC’s hospitality portfolio has about 1,800 keys across seven hotels, ranging from high-end five-star properties under the Crimson brand to Quest hotels and Timberland, which serve the mid-priced leisure markets.

“We’re really focusing on creating a collection of hotels in the right locations so that when we go out into the market, we can sell all the best of the Philippines,” Mr. Gotianun said.

Mr. Gotianun said that FHC is very bullish on the prospects of the country’s tourism sector. He added that the company has a couple of projects to be announced by the end of the year.

“We can really see the tourism numbers starting to come back up, very strong domestic while international is still a little bit below, but we think we’ll catch up,” Mr. Gotianun said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think FHC’s addition of about two thousand new rooms will help the nation’s tourism industry a lot in the years ahead? Do you think our nation still lacks rooms for domestic and foreign tourists?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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DOTr postpones news rules and imposition of fines for motorists with no RFID to October 1, 2024

September 4, 2024August 28, 2024carlocarrasco

This is for motorists who have been traveling along the highways without radio frequency identification (RFID) tags or with insufficient load. The Department of Transportation (DOTr) recently announced that it has officially postponed to October 1, 2024 the implementation of new tollway guidelines and fines, according to a BusinessWorld news report. The implementation was supposed to have happened on August 31.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE Department of Transportation (DoTr) postponed the implementation of new tollway guidelines, which impose fines on motorists with no radio frequency identification (RFID) tags or insufficient funds on their accounts, to Oct. 1.

“We hope the concerned agencies and tollway operators would use the 30-day deferment to fine-tune expressway operations and further intensify the public information campaign to enable tollway users to comply with the new guidelines,” Transportation Secretary Jaime J. Bautista said in a statement on Tuesday.

The new rules, under Joint Memorandum Circular No. 2024-001, were supposed to be enforced starting Aug. 31.

Under the rules, all motorists passing through expressways without RFID tags or having insufficient balance on their accounts will face penalties starting Aug. 31.

“These revised guidelines should significantly improve traffic along expressways through cashless or contactless toll plazas,” Mr. Bautista said.

The Toll Regulatory Board (TRB) said motorists entering an access highway without RFID tags or electronic toll collection (ETC) device will incur a fine of P1,000 for the first offense, P2,000 for the second offense, and P5,000 for subsequent offenses.

Motorists exiting toll expressways with insufficient account balance will be fined P500 for the first offense, P1,000 for the second offense, and P2,500 for subsequent offenses.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Have you been driving regularly on the highways without an RFID tag on your vehicle?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Major property developers unfazed by national ban on POGOs

August 21, 2024August 13, 2024carlocarrasco

As far as the major property developers are concerned, the national ban on Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGOs) will not have a significant effect on their and residential businesses, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

LOCAL PROPERTY DEVELOPERS are unfazed by the government’s ban on Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGO), saying that it has minimum or no effect on their office and residential businesses.

“Our direct exposure to POGO is rather limited. Only 1% of our office portfolio is occupied by POGOs,” she said.

“We were never a big POGO locator. It has even gone down over the years. Now, we’re down to 1%. In terms of our sales, we have very little sales to Chinese buyers in general, whether POGO or not,” she added.

Ms. Dy said that ALI conducted checks across its residential buildings following the announcement of the ban and found that only less than 5% are occupied by POGOs or probable POGO employees.

“Our products are not that exposed to the POGO market, either directly in the office or indirectly as tenants for our residential buildings,” she said.

Sy-led conglomerate SM Investments Corp. (SMIC) said the POGO ban also has no impact on their property business. SM Prime Holdings, Inc. develops residential and commercial properties through SM Development Corp.

“Fortunately, (the POGO ban) has no impact to us,” SMIC President and Chief Executive Officer Frederic C. DyBuncio said in a mobile phone message after being asked for comment.

In a recent disclosure, Gotianun-led Filinvest REIT Corp. (FILRT) said that it is not affected by the POGO ban. The company is the real estate investment trust (REIT) of Filinvest Land, Inc.

“FILRT has no POGO exposure and has been free of POGOs since the second quarter of 2022,” it said.

“The company has been deliberately diversifying its tenant mix, with the addition of traditional tenants and coworking locators,” it added.

Luxury property developer Shang Properties, Inc. recently said that the POGO ban will have no effect on the company’s residential business.

“The profile of our buyers is mostly Filipinos. We have a healthy mix of foreign buyers which are not China-based, so we’re not as affected,” Shang Properties Executive Vice-President for Commercial Maria Rochelle S. Diaz said at a recent media briefing.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that the nationwide ban on POGOs will not harm the office and residential businesses of all property developers?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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