economic dynamism – Page 7 – Author Carlo Carrasco

Philippines Lowers Economic Growth Target Amid Global Uncertainty

July 2, 2025June 27, 2025carlocarrasco

As there are more signs of weakness and uncertainty, the economic managers of the Philippines officially lowered their economic growth target this year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Economic managers on Thursday revised the economic growth target for this year amid mounting global uncertainties.

At a briefing after the 191st Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) meeting, Budget Secretary and DBCC Chair Amenah Pangandaman said the economic growth assumption for 2025 was revised downward to 5.5 to 6.5 percent from the previous 6 to 8 percent.

For 2026 to 2028, the Philippine economy is projected to expand by 6 to 7 percent, reflecting a more cautious and resilient economic outlook amid global headwinds.

“The revisions take into account heightened global uncertainties, such as the unforeseen escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the imposition of U.S. tariffs,” Pangandaman said.

She said that despite these challenges, the DBCC remains “vigilant and ready to deploy timely and targeted measures” to mitigate their potential impact on the Philippine economy.

The budget chief said the country continues to be one of the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN driven by robust domestic demand.

To maintain this momentum, she highlighted the administration’s focus on structural reforms, including the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act and the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Code, both designed to enhance the country’s trade and investment competitiveness.

Pangandaman said the government will also pursue the approval and implementation of other reforms recently ratified by Congress, such as the Liberalizing the Lease of Private Lands by Foreign Investors Act, Enhanced Fiscal Regime for Large-Scale Metallic Mining Act, Accelerated and Reformed Right-of-Way (ARROW) Act, and Konektadong Pinoy Act.

The DBCC also revisited the medium-term macroeconomic assumptions to take into consideration recent global and domestic developments.

The inflation assumption for this year was cut to 2 to 3 percent from the previous 2 to 4 percent. For 2026 to 2028, the inflation assumption was retained at 2 to 4 percent.

For 2025 to 2028, crude oil price assumptions were reduced to USD60 to USD70 per barrel from USD60 to 80 per barrel, despite escalating geopolitical tensions.

The foreign exchange rate is assumed to remain stable, averaging at PHP56 to PHP58 per US dollar from 2025 through 2028, supported by lower domestic inflation.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines is lacking momentum to achieve 6% growth this year? Do you think that inflation and unemployment will eventually rise before the year ends? Are you convinced that foreign investors are staying away from the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Do you miss Fukuya Japanese Restaurant?

May 21, 2025May 15, 2025carlocarrasco

On April 30, 2025, Fukuya Japanese Restaurant inside Festival Mall closed down after having its final day of operations which saddened a lot of loyal customers. At 8:41 in morning of that same day, the restaurant announced via social media that they were going to close down which went as follows:

It is with a heavy heart that we are announcing our last day of operations today. We would like to thank our valued customers whom we consider a part of the Fukuya family for your patronage and support since we opened our doors in 1995. We truly cherish the memories we have of you and it is our pleasure to have served you. To our generations of patrons, thank you for your kind words and loyalty to Fukuya. You have made our journey all the more fulfilling. May God bless you all!

*I took this picture on May 1, 2025. This very spot Fukuya previously occupied has since been covered up.*

For the newcomers reading this, Fukuya Japanese Restaurant first opened at SM Southmall in Las Piñas City in the mid-1990s and my first time ever to eat at their place was in 1997. They eventually opened in Festival Mall in Alabang, Muntinlupa some years later and lasted there until April 30 this year. Be aware that a change of ownership of Festival Mall took place months ago which might be related to Fukuya’s closure.

Being fond of Japanese food, I can say that the demise of Fukuya Japanese Restaurant is very unfortunate. To be clear, the number of Japanese restaurants and other businesses selling certain types of Japanese food at Festival Mall has increased over the past several years. In fact, there are certain Japanese restaurants there that sold meals at notably higher prices when compared to similar offerings from Fukuya Japanese Restaurant. Clearly Fukuya had a lot of competitors at Festival Mall alone.

More on Fukuya, there are best known for the Hiroshima-style Okonomiyaki (read my old article by clicking here) which was always served freshly cooked, very flavorful and filling. I had their Okonomiyaki many times and always had a great taste backed with satisfaction. I also tried Okonomiyaki at other Japanese restaurants at Festival Mall but none of them ever came close to what Fukuya had.

Fukuya also served Futo Maki/Futomaki, Yakisoba, ramen, Bento meals, Tempura, sushi, sashimi, Teppanyaki, Udon, Soba and a lot more. They also had value meals to accommodate customers with limited funds.

*Fukuya Japanese Restaurant’s most famous meal is the Hiroshima-style Okonomiyaki.*

While the pandemic is over and the Philippine economy is growing, there are still a lot of internal and external economic forces that make operating businesses challenging. As for the rental fees of Festival Mall under the new owner, I heard allegations that the rates went up. Apart from Fukuya, I noticed a local printing and photocopying business there closed down recently, and I used to have documents photocopied there.

Now that Fukuya Japanese Restaurant is gone, customers who are looking for Japanese meals that are affordable will have to look elsewhere. As of this writing, Fukuya has not updated their Facebook page since April 30, 2025. While their FB page is still active, I can only wonder if the business owners could be planning a revival of Fukuya someday. You can visit their FB page by clicking https://www.facebook.com/FukuyaJapaneseRestaurantFestivalMall

*Do you miss this view from inside Fukuya at Festival Mall?*

For those of you reading this, let me ask you – were you fond of eating at Fukuya Japanese Restaurant? Did you enjoy their Hiroshima-style Okonomiyaki? How was the quality of the food they served you the last time you ate there? What do you think is the main reason behind the closure of Fukuya Japanese Restaurant?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nomura trims Philippine economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

May 16, 2025May 14, 2025carlocarrasco

As far as the Nomura Global Markets Research is concerned, the economic growth of the Philippines will for 2025 and 2026 will end up weaker than previously expected, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

NOMURA GLOBAL Markets Research has trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and 2026 following the weak first-quarter expansion.

Nomura cut its Philippine economic growth forecast to 5.3% for this year from 5.9% previously, it said in a report dated May 9. It also slashed its 2026 projection to 5.6% from 6.1%.

Both projections are well below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s 6-8% growth target for 2025 until 2028.

“Our 2025-26 GDP forecast revisions take into account the disappointing first-quarter outturn, which only rose slightly to 5.4% year on year from 5.3% in fourth quarter 2024, despite election-related spending,” Nomura analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said in the report.

“Escalating global trade and geopolitical tensions are the main downside risks to growth. A faster rollout of infrastructure projects and lower oil prices are upside risks.”

The Philippine economy expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter, the government reported last week. This was a tad faster than the revised 5.3% in the previous quarter but sharply slower from the 5.9% growth in the same period in 2024.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Group Rosemarie G. Edillon said that GDP would need to grow by 6.2% for the rest of the year to reach the lower end of the 6-8% goal.

Based on its forecasts, Nomura expects the Philippines to post below-6% GDP growth for the rest of the year. Broken down, it sees GDP growth of 5.3% in the second quarter, 5.4% in the third quarter, and just 5% in the fourth quarter.

In 2024, the economy expanded by 6.5% in the second quarter, 5.2% in the third quarter, and 5.3% in the fourth quarter.

“A key source of the downside surprise [in the first quarter] was investment spending growth, which we believe suggests businesses have already turned cautious amid surging global trade uncertainty, even in a less open economy,” Nomura said.

“We expect a moderate pickup in real GDP growth in 2026, led by the government’s strong push for more progress on infrastructure projects.”

It added that it expects the country to post a current account deficit of 4.1% of GDP this year and 4.4% of GDP next year, wider than the 3.8% ratio in 2024, driven by an increase in capital goods imports amid the government’s infrastructure push and weaker exports due to the US’ tariffs.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can still grow stronger than what Nomura predicts in 2025 and 2026? Do you think the national government should make new economic moves to stimulate the national economy while also attracting new foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine economy grew by 5.4% in 1st quarter of 2025

May 12, 2025May 8, 2025carlocarrasco

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.4% in the first quarter of this year, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of GMA Network. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy expanded faster in the first three months of 2025 amid the growth seen in services, industry, and agriculture sectors, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) —the value of goods and services produced in a period— grew faster by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, higher than the upwardly revised growth rate of 5.3% in the last quarter of 2024, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa reported at a press conference in Quezon City on Thursday.

This was also the fastest GDP growth rate seen since the third quarter of 2024, albeit slower than the 5.9% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2024.

At constant prices, the economy reached a value of P5.477 trillion during the period, up 5.4% from P5.196-trillion GDP seen in the same quarter last year.

Department of Economy, Planning and Development Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon said the country’s GDP needs to increase by 6.2% in the remaining quarters of 2025 to hit at least the lower-end of the. government’s growth target of 6% to 7% for the year.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can still grow by 6% by the end of the year? Do you think election spending will add a lot to economic growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Proposed measure to increase tax on capital gains withdrawn by DOF

May 5, 2025April 30, 2025carlocarrasco

In recent times, the Department of Finance (DOF) has withdrawn the proposed measure on increasing taxes on capital gains pointing to certain economic factors according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of GMA News. Some parts in boldface…

The proposed measure increasing taxes on capital gains, donor’s, and estate to 10% from 6% has been withdrawn as the Department of Finance (DOF) determined that there would be “no need” for additional revenue measures, citing the government’s robust fiscal position.

In a statement, Albay 2nd District Representative and House Ways and Means chairman Joey Sarte Salceda disclosed that the DOF pulled out the Government Revenues Optimization through the Wealth Tax Harmonization (GROWTH) Bill, which proposed a hike in tax rate for capital gains, donor taxes, and estate taxes.

The bill is the Marcos administration’s tweaked version of the Passive Income and Financial Intermediary Taxation Act (PIFITA), proposed by the Duterte administration as Package 4 of its Comprehensive Tax Reform Program (CTRP).

Citing a letter from the DOF, dated April 29, Salceda said the Finance Department is withdrawing the proposed measure, citing “stronger-than-expected revenue collections, a double-digit growth rate in tax collections, and steady progress toward the government’s fiscal consolidation goals.”

In a separate statement, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said that “given our current strong fiscal performance, these are not needed at this time.”

“The government is properly managing its finances, ensuring that public needs are met without burdening the citizenry with new taxes,” he added.

‘More than sufficient’ – In particular, the Finance chief cited the 13.55% growth in total tax collections to P931.5 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

Broken down, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) posted P690.4 billion in collections, up 16.67% year-on-year; while the Bureau of Customs saw a 5.72% growth in collection to P231.4 billion during the same period.

“At this point, current revenues are more than sufficient to support our expenditure requirements. We are meeting our obligations, funding key programs, and growing the economy without having to impose new taxes on our kababayan,” Recto said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think it was just right for the DOF to withdraw the measure? Do you thinking hiking capital gains tax, donor taxes and estate taxes are needed to ensure economic growth for the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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ANZ Research says Philippine economic growth for 2025 could slow down to 5%

May 2, 2025April 28, 2025carlocarrasco

By pointing to the trade policies of the United States and weak private spending, ANZ Research says that the economic growth of the Philippines for 2025 could slow down to 5%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. ANZ also downgraded its growth forecasts for many other Asian economies.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth is expected to slow to 5% this year due to the fallout from the Trump administration’s trade policy and weak private spending, ANZ Research said.

In its latest Asia Insight report, ANZ cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the Philippines to 5% this year from 5.7% previously. It also lowered its 2026 GDP projection to 5.5% from 6% previously.

Both forecasts would fall short of the 6-8% growth target set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee from this year to the next.

“Our new forecasts incorporate our expectations of direct and indirect impact of tariffs, bilateral trade agreements between the US and individual economies, revised growth estimates for mainland China and the US and potential policy response,” ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur said.

The downward revisions constitute a “durable shock to regional growth as US tariffs imply a long-term reduction in global trade,” he added.

President Donald J. Trump slapped reciprocal tariffs on most of its trading partners earlier this month but suspended these higher tariffs for 90 days. Only the baseline 10% tariff remains in effect.

The Philippines was hit with a 17% reciprocal tariff, though this was the second lowest in Southeast Asia, just after Singapore.

“It is likely that some Asian economies will negotiate down or even do away with the April 2 reciprocal tariffs owing to the potential damage to US growth,” Mr. Mathur said. “Even so, the uncertainty around US trade policies will constrain business activity, including hiring and investment.”

ANZ slashed its growth projection for Asia, excluding China and India, to 2.9% this year from 3.4% previously. It also trimmed its 2026 forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% previously.

ANZ also downgraded its GDP projections for all countries it covers, namely India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Vietnam.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines will be able to negotiate with the United States on tariff and trade matters soon?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines unemployment rate down in February 2025

April 14, 2025April 9, 2025carlocarrasco

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) revealed recently that the unemployment rate of the Philippines fell down to 3.8% this past February from 4.3% the previous month, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The country’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in three months, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed.

In a briefing on Tuesday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said preliminary results of the latest Labor Force Survey showed that the unemployment rate further declined to 3.8 percent in February this year from 4.3 percent the previous month. It was the lowest rate since the 3.1 percent recorded in December last year.

Mapa said the number of unemployed Filipinos declined to 1.94 million from 2.16 million in January this year.

Employment rate on the other hand, rose to 96.2 percent in February this year from 95.7 percent the previous month.

Mapa said the number of employed Filipinos went up to 49.15 million, higher than the 48.49 million and 48.95 million recorded in January this year and in February 2024, respectively.

Industries which recorded the largest increase in employment include accommodation and food service (+377,000), fishing and aquaculture (+365,000), public administration and defense (+330,000), construction (+258,000), and other service activities (+232,000).

Mapa said preparations for the midterm elections and summer holidays helped increase employment in accommodation and food service and other service activities.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think there will be more than enough job opportunities for the unemployed throughout the year? Do you think the Philippine economy will grow strongly to sustain new job creation until the end of 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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PEZA investment pledges jump 249% in January-March 2025

April 8, 2025April 2, 2025carlocarrasco

The Philippines is enjoying a surge of investment pledges in the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) with a 249% jump in the first quarter of 2025, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. The surge is expected to create many new jobs.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Investment pledges in the Philippine Economic Zone Authority from January to March 2025 hit PHP58.95 billion, 249 percent higher than the PHP13.95 billion project registrations in the same period in 2024.

PEZA reported Wednesday that the pledges came from 66 projects that registered with the investment promotion agency (IPA) in the first quarter of the year.

These new and expansion projects are expected to generate 15,815 direct jobs and contribute an additional USD497.46 million to export revenues.

“PEZA’s continued upward trajectory reflects our strong commitment towards investment promotion and facilitation, coupled with our most generous fiscal incentives under the CREATE MORE, and the other advantages placing the Philippines in a sweet spot for economic growth and development,” PEZA Director General Tereso Panga said.

“PEZA continues to play a vital role in advancing the country’s economic resilience through sustained job creation, increased exports, and enhanced investment attraction,” he added.

Twenty-four projects that were registered with PEZA in Q1 2025 are manufacturing activities and another 24 are in information technology and business process management.

Ecozone development and domestic enterprises got seven projects each, while utilities and facilities activities registered two projects each.

A big chunk of PEZA-approved investment in Q1 2025 are for Calabarzon (32 projects), followed by National Capital Region (12), Central Luzon (eight), Central Visayas (eight), Davao Region (two), Ilocos Region (two), Northern Mindanao (one), and Western Visayas (one).

To date, PEZA approved PHP49.81 billion worth of big-ticket projects, or those with investments exceeding PHP1 billion.

For March alone, the PEZA board approved 27 projects with total investments of PHP6.01 billion.

Two big-ticket projects were also approved last month with aggregate pledges of PHP2.62 billion for a water treatment facility in Batangas and a coconut milk manufacturing facility in Misamis Oriental.

“We are bullish that we will sustain this upward trajectory coming into the 2nd quarter of the year as we intensify our investment promotion initiatives partnered with the CREATE MORE incentives, the most generous fiscal incentives among ASEAN to date,” Panga said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the strong surge of investments in PEZA will continue to last throughout the year? Do you think the Philippine economy will grow beyond 6% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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IRR of Value-Added Tax (VAT) refund for foreign tourists signed

April 1, 2025March 25, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently the Philippines officially became a VAT-free destination for foreign tourists as the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of Republic Act 12079 (Value-Added Tax Refund for Non-Resident Tourists) has been signed, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. It should be noted that the Republic Act was signed into law last December.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Government officials signed on Monday the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of Republic Act (RA) 12079 or the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Refund for Non-Resident Tourists.

In a statement, the Department of Finance (DOF) said the IRR was signed by Secretary Ralph Recto, Bureau of Customs Commissioner Bienvenido Rubio and Bureau of Internal Revenue Deputy Commissioner Marissa Cabreros.

It was witnessed by Department of Tourism Secretary Christina Garcia-Frasco and Office of the Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Secretary Frederick Go.

RA 12079 aims to boost tourism and encourage more foreign tourists to shop and spend more in the Philippines, thereby bolstering economic growth.

Under the IRR, non-resident tourists or foreign passport holders may apply for a VAT refund for locally purchased goods from accredited stores that are equivalent to at least PHP3,000.

The goods must be physically taken out of the Philippines by the tourist as accompanied baggage within 60 days from the date of purchase.

The VAT refund applies only to retail and tangible goods, such as clothing, apparel, electronics, gadgets, jewelry, accessories, souvenirs, food or non-food consumables, and other goods intended for personal use.

“With a multiplier effect of 1.97, every 100 pesos spent by a tourist generates 197 pesos in economic output. Imagine that. Halos doble ang balik sa ekonomiya (The return to the economy is almost double),” Recto said.

“And more money spent by foreign tourists means more businesses created, more Filipino workers hired, more jobs provided, higher incomes for our people and more revenues for the government to collect. That’s the simple formula for growth,” he added.

Recto cited the importance of effective executive to unlock the law’s full potential.

He said the country must establish a fully functional VAT refund system and a surge in inbound tourism.

“We want more tourists to come — and we want them to stay longer, spend bigger, and transact with convenience,” he said.

Heeding President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s call, Recto vowed to ensure that the VAT refund process is simple, accessible and culturally inclusive.

“From our end at the Department of Finance, we aim to deliver a VAT refund system that is world-class, modern, and built on the principles of transparency, efficiency and ease,” he said.

The IRR mandates the DOF to engage the services of reputable and internationally recognized VAT refund operators to provide end-to-end solutions to the government. Such refunds may be made electronically or in cash to enhance the ease of doing business.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Now the IRR of the VAT refund for foreign tourists has officially been signed, do you expect positive impact on Philippine tourism to happen this year? Do you think a lot of tourists overseas have been waiting for the Philippines to establish the VAT refund for foreign tourists?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BSP says inflation could accelerate in the 2nd half of 2025

March 27, 2025March 18, 2025carlocarrasco

In its monetary report recently released, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) stated that inflation could exceed the 2% to 4% target in the 2^nd of half of this year mainly pointing to base effects from easing commodity price pressures, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) said inflation could overshoot the 2-4% target range in the second half of this year amid base effects.

In its latest Monetary Policy report, the central bank said annual inflation is likely to settle within the 2-4% target band from this year to 2026 amid declining rice prices.

“However, inflation could exceed the target range in the latter part of 2025, primarily due to base effects from easing commodity price pressures in the corresponding period of 2024,” it said.

“Inflation is then projected to move closer to the midpoint of the target range in 2026, supported by an expected moderation in global commodity prices,” it added.

The BSP’s baseline forecasts for inflation are at 3.5% for 2025 to 2026. Accounting for risks, inflation could reach 3.7% in 2026.

In February, the consumer price index (CPI) sharply slowed to 2.1%, bringing headline inflation to 2.5% in the first two months.

For this year, inflationary pressures could come from “higher global oil and non-oil prices, peso depreciation, and recent above-expectation inflation readings,” the BSP said.

However, inflation could breach the 2-4% target range if crude oil prices rise, it said.

BSP estimates show that if crude oil prices average above $100 per barrel, inflation could hit 4.1% this year and 4.8% next year.

Based on the latest Development Budget Coordination Committee macroeconomic assumptions, Dubai crude oil is seen to range from $60 to $80 per barrel this year.

However, the BSP reiterated that risks to the inflation outlook have remained “broadly balanced.”

“Upside risks include potential increases in electricity rates, transport charges, and pork prices,” it said.

According to the BSP’s risk matrix, there is a high probability for a rise in pork prices and a low probability for elevated transport and electricity costs.

“Conversely, the main downside risk stems from the spillover effects of lower tariffs on imported rice to domestic rice prices.”

Rice inflation further decreased to 4.9% in February from the 2.3% drop in January. This was the lowest rice inflation print since the 5.7% contraction in April 2020.

Rice prices are seen to decline further after the Agriculture department declared a food security emergency on rice, as well as lowered the maximum suggested retail price of 5% broken imported rice.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the inflation in the Philippines will accelerate in the 2^nd half of this year? If you are running a business, how far can you go when it comes to maintaining the current prices of your good and services when inflation kicks in?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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