economic confidence – Author Carlo Carrasco

November 2025 Philippines Inflation Lands At 1.5%

December 16, 2025December 8, 2025carlocarrasco

The inflation rate of the Philippines eased further this past November landing at 1.5%, according to a business news report by GMA News.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the business news report of the GMA News. Some parts in boldface…

The country’s inflation rate slowed down in November 2025 on the back of slower increase in food costs during the period, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Friday.

At a press conference, PSA Deputy National Statistician Divina Gracia del Prado said the overall inflation —which measures the rate of increase in the prices of goods and services— clocked in at 1.5%. This was slower than the 1.7% rate seen in October 2025.

November’s inflation rate brought the year-to-date national average to 1.6%, well within the government’s comfortable ceiling of 2% to 4%.

“Ang pangunahing dahilan ng mas mababang antas ng inflation nitong Nobyembre 2025 kaysa noong Oktubre 2025 ay ang mas mabagal na pagtaas ng presyo ng Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages na may 0.1% inflation rate,” del Prado said.

(The main reason for the lower inflation rate in November 2025 versus October 2025 was the slower increase in the prices of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages with an inflation rate of 0.1%.)

The inflation rate for the heavily weighted index clocked in at 0.5% in October 2025.

The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages index contributed 85.3% to the country’s overall inflation print.

Meanwhile, food inflation —which tracks the price movements of food items in a “basket” commonly purchased by households— registered a negative rate of 0.3% from 0.2% in the prior month due to slower increase in vegetable prices at 4% from 16.4% month-on-month as well as the slowdown in the growth of meat prices at 4.2% from 5.2%.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the nation’s inflation could slow down even more to as low as 1% by the end of December?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Business Groups Reaffirm Commitment To National Economy

November 25, 2025November 18, 2025carlocarrasco

With the weakening economic growth and growing socio-economic uncertainty affecting the entire Philippines, prominent business groups reaffirmed their commitment to invest and create jobs in the country, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

Six prominent groups representing the business sector reaffirmed their commitment to invest and create jobs in the Philippines amid weakening sentiment in the economy, which is fueled by what they described as a “political turmoil” stemming from the ongoing corruption scandal.

In a rare joint statement sent to the media moments after a pivotal reshuffle in the administration’s economic team, the business groups emphasized that they remain committed to supporting the Philippine economy.

“While the current political turmoil raises understandable concerns, we stress that the country’s long-term fundamentals remain strong; anchored by a well-regulated financial system, a stable banking sector, and companies that continue to invest in and believe in the Philippines,” the groups said on Monday, Nov. 17.

The statement was signed by Makati Business Club (MBC), Management Association of the Philippines (MAP), Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines (FINEX), Philippine Finance Association, and Institute of Corporate Directors (ICD).

In a statement that essentially serves as a pitch to potential investors, the six business groups said that the institutions safeguarding local markets “continue to operate independently and rigorously.”

The groups cited the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as among the most reliable government partners when it comes to businesses.

Both the BSP and the SEC uphold regulatory frameworks aligned with global standards, ultimately ensuring market integrity, prudent risk management, and strong investor protection, they said.

“The Philippines continues to meet international benchmarks on capital adequacy, disclosure requirements, and corporate governance,” the groups said.

The business groups also took note of the corporate earnings of publicly listed companies, which reflect the economy’s underlying strength.

They noted that even during periods of global instability, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, companies continued to demonstrate resilience with growing revenues and stable margins.

Further, the groups said that investment sentiment in the country remains robust, with gross fixed capital formation ranging between 22 percent and 27 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the last 10 years.

“This ongoing level of capital spending, mainly driven by business growth, clearly indicates that Philippine companies continue to build capacity, expand operations, and invest in the country’s long-term prospects,” the statement read.

While upholding optimism, the six business groups stressed that investor confidence is influenced not only by economic fundamentals but also by governance.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Does the joint statement of the prominent business group boost your confidence about the future of the country? Do you think the Philippine economy will be able to bounce back strongly next year? Does the continuing media coverage of the flood control corruption scandals and investigations continue to bother you?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Approved Foreign Investment Pledges Fall Down 48.7% In 3rd Quarter

November 21, 2025November 14, 2025carlocarrasco

The flood control corruption scandals connected with the weaker investor sentiment resulted in a 48.7% fall in foreign investment pledges during the 3^rd quarter this year, according a news report by BusinessWorld. It should be noted that Philippines GDP growth for the same quarter slowed down a lot.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

APPROVED foreign investment pledges plunged nearly 50% in the third quarter as investor sentiment soured due to the corruption scandal involving government infrastructure projects, the local statistics agency said.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed the value of foreign commitments approved by investment promotion agencies (IPAs) fell by 48.7% to P73.68 billion in the July-to-September period from P143.74 billion in same period last year.

However, this was the highest amount of investment pledges since the third quarter of 2024.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said the decline in approved investments can be attributed to the weaker investor sentiment.

“Tingin ko. Wala pang nakukulong eh (I think so. No one has been imprisoned yet),” he said in a Viber message, when asked if this sharp slump in approved investments will likely persist in the fourth quarter until 2026.

Quarter on quarter, the approved pledges rose by 9.34% from P67.38 billion in the second quarter.

Singapore was the top source of foreign investment pledges in the third quarter with P20.26 billion (27.5%), followed by Japan with P13.59 billion (18.4%) and Cayman Islands with P13.14 billion (17.8%).

Investment commitments from South Korea stood at P5.57 billion (7.6%), while those from China stood at P4.51 billion (6.1%)

PSA data showed the investment pledges were approved by seven IPAs — the Authority of the Freeport Area of Bataan, Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), Board of Investments (BoI), Clark Development Corp., Clark International Airport Corp., Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), and Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think the government must do to convince foreign investors to become more confident about investing in the Philippines? Do you think the investigation and pace of justice related to the flood control corruption scandal is moving too slowly?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BMI Sees Philippines GDP Growth Slowing Down To 5.2% In 2026

November 3, 2025October 25, 2025carlocarrasco

BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, officially lowered its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) for the Philippines at 5.2% pointing a series of factors such as remittances slowdown, weaker investor sentiment, US tariffs on Philippine goods and the effects of the flood control corruption scandals, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

Fitch Solutions’ unit BMI has sharply lowered its 2026 Philippine growth forecast to well below the government’s six- to seven-percent target, citing an expected slowdown in remittances, a weaker trade balance, muted investment sentiment, and downside risks to government spending stemming from the flood control fiasco.

“We expect remittance growth to slow due to tighter US [United States] immigration policy and a one-percent remittance tax on transfers from the US starting in 2026,” BMI said in a commentary published on Thursday, Oct. 23.

“A slowdown in remittances will weigh on domestic consumption, which will have an outsized impact on growth given the domestically driven economy,” BMI explained.

Against this backdrop, BMI has slashed its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.2 percent, one-percentage-point (ppt) lower than the 6.2 percent it projected previously.

If realized, this would also fall below this year’s growth goal of 5.5 to 6.5 percent, and 2024’s actual pace of 5.7 percent.

Another policy by US President Donald Trump that could drag down the local economy is the 19-percent tariff on Philippine exports, but zero tariffs imposed on select American imports.

This US-Philippines trade setup, according to BMI, “will weigh on the trade balance in 2026.”

Goods exports growth in August was the slowest in 2025 as US tariffs took effect and exporters’ front-loading of outbound shipments ended.

The latest Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data showed that goods exports grew by 4.6 percent year-on-year in August, marking the slowest increase since the 1.9-percent decline in December 2024

BMI also believes investor sentiment will “likely” remain muted next year as “erratic US trade policies will weigh on global investor sentiment and limit foreign direct investment inflows [FDIs].”

Domestically, government spending could bear the impact of a scenario where the ongoing flood control probe leads to the unearthing of more corruption cases tied to infrastructure projects beyond flood control.

“It could lead to even tighter scrutiny on government spending and reduce spending substantially below fiscally programmed levels,” BMI said. Capital outlays had dropped by 10 percent to ₱112.9 billion as of August, according to the Department of Budget and Management (DBM).

Infrastructure spending is expected to hit ₱1.51 trillion in 2025, ₱1.56 trillion in 2026, ₱1.69 trillion in 2027, ₱1.9 trillion in 2028, ₱2.03 trillion in 2029, and ₱2.2 trillion in 2030.

Meanwhile, BMI retained its 5.4-percent Philippine growth forecast for this year, still below the lowered full-year target.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Are you convinced that due to several internal and external factors, economic growth of the Philippines will be slower this year and next year? Do you agree with BMI’s findings about the Philippine economy?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Japan’s Nambu Will Invest P4 Billion For Retirement Facilities In The Philippines

October 6, 2025September 29, 2025carlocarrasco

As different forms of economic uncertainty and controversies regarding flood control projects continue to dominate the news, the Philippines got a much-needed economic boost as Japanese firm Nambu Co. Ltd. confirmed it will be investing P4 billion to build several retirement facilities in different parts of the country, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

A Japanese wellness company will invest PHP4-billion to build 10 retirement facilities in various parts of the Philippines.

The initial facility to be established by Nambu Co. Ltd will be in Lapu-Lapu City in Cebu province, according to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) on Friday.

The investment is supported by the CREATE MORE (Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises – Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy) Act and involves training Filipino caregivers to meet Japanese standards.

CREATE MORE broadens incentives to help boost economic recovery, support enterprises and attract foreign investment.

Details of the investment plan were discussed during a meeting between Philippine officials and members of the wellness company in Osaka, Japan on Thursday, the DTI said in a press release on Friday.

“This initiative aims to leverage the country’s skilled workforce to meet Japan’s labor needs while simultaneously boosting local employment,” it said.

Trade Secretary Cristina Roque said the investment supports the government’s bid to increase high-value industries, drive job creation, and strengthen the country’s position as a premier retirement and wellness destination in the region.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to the recent developments? Do you think Nambu’s multi-billion Peso investment will make a long-lasting positive impact in the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nomura says America’s 19% tariff may cut Philippines GDP growth slightly

August 5, 2025July 28, 2025carlocarrasco

In the middle of mixed reactions towards the United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine exports, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be cut by 0.4%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Recently, US President Donald Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., met in the White House which resulted in the new tariff.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine goods could cut the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.4 percentage point (ppt), Nomura Global Markets Research said.

In a report, Nomura said the US tariff of 19% on Philippine goods is “fairly high” and poses downside risks to growth.

“We estimate the direct effects could reduce our baseline GDP growth forecasts by a still-substantial 0.4 ppt in the Philippines.”

Nomura said this projection is “relatively substantial” compared to its baseline growth forecasts of 5.3% and 5.6% for this year and 2026, respectively.

“This is partly because we assigned 10% as the level where the reciprocal tariff rate could settle, on the assumption that the Philippines is a strong ally of the US and is not a third country for transshipments,” Nomura said.

“As it turns out, despite the visit to Washington by President Marcos and both sides reiterating the need for a strong partnership, the tariff was still set at 19%, which is even higher than the ‘Liberation Day’ level of 17%.”

Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. met with US President Donald J. Trump at the White House in Washington, DC. Mr. Trump announced a 19% tariff would be imposed on Philippine goods, which will take effect starting Aug. 1.

“The trade ‘deals’ therefore represent upside surprises in terms of tariff rates, especially for the Philippines,” Nomura said.

“As a result, if implemented and these tariff rates are sustained, these will likely further weigh on growth in both countries relative to our current baseline forecasts.”

The government expects GDP to grow by 5.5-6.5% this year, lower than its previous target of 6-8%.

“While these ballpark estimates make sense to us, uncertainty remains high and these are ‘only’ taking into account the direct effects on these ASEAN countries’ exports to the US,” Nomura said.

These estimates do not account for sectoral tariffs, such as in semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are currently exempted, it added.

“But as our US team highlights, the risk is these could be set higher, though some countries could be exempted, adding to the uncertainty. As mentioned above, the details of the trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines are still limited.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines is in a serious disadvantage with the American tariff of 19% imposed on the nation’s exports? Do you think the Philippine economy still has strong momentum to reach 6% GDP growth by the end of this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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ADB sees Philippine economy growing by 5.6% this year

August 1, 2025July 24, 2025carlocarrasco

By pointing to a variety of factors, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently announced that the economy of the Philippines will grow by 5.6% this year, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). The ADB recently released its latest economy report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the first PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines is expected to post the second highest economic growth in Southeast Asia this year despite the downgrade in growth outlook due to external headwinds, a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) showed.

In its Asian Development Outlook July 2025 report released on Wednesday, the ADB said Philippine economic growth is expected to settle at 5.6 percent this year.

The growth outlook for the Philippines is the second highest in Southeast Asia, next to Vietnam’s 6.3 percent. Indonesia is projected to grow by 5 percent, Malaysia by 4.3 percent, Singapore by 1.6 percent, and Thailand by 1.8 percent.

For 2026, growth is expected to slightly pick up to 5.8 percent.

The ADB’s latest projection, however, was lower than its 6 percent for 2024 and 6.1 percent for 2025 economic growth forecast amid external headwinds. The Philippine economy grew by 5.4 percent in the first quarter of the year.

“Domestic demand grew 6.7 percent, supported by easing inflation and monetary policy. However, net exports dragged on growth as brisk imports outpaced exports,” the ADB said. It added that manufacturing index (PMI) recovered slightly to 50.7 in June from 50.1 in May.

“Consumer sentiment was positive in the near term. Unemployment was low at 3.9 percent in May, and remittance growth of 3.0 percent helped sustain household spending,” it said.

The ADB, however, said that business confidence softened amid heightened global policy uncertainties.

According to the ADB, economic forecasts for most countries in Southeast Asia have been downgraded for 2025 and 2026 due to the continuing global growth slowdown and increased trade uncertainty.

“Weaker external conditions have hurt business and consumer sentiment and threaten to disrupt investment in the subregion,” it said.

“Except for Indonesia, the largest economy in the subregion, all Southeast Asian economies are expected to post weaker growth in the next two years.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think it is still possible for the economy of the Philippines reach 6% GDP growth by the end of 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Department of Finance (DOF) says 6% economic growth is quite difficult to achieve this year

July 31, 2025July 23, 2025carlocarrasco

The uncertainty about this year’s economic growth for the Philippines has gotten stronger as the Department of Finance (DOF) admitted that achieving 6% growth is quite difficult, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The DOF pointed to external shocks that are affecting the national economy.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

While the Philippine economy has already been recovering from its deep recession during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, hitting its growth potential of six percent would be challenging given the global uncertainties spilling over domestically, according to the Department of Finance (DOF).

“We do think that the potential of the Philippines is at the minimum six-percent growth. But of course, it’s quite difficult, especially knowing some of the challenges that we’re seeing,” DOF Undersecretary and Chief Economist Domini Velasquez told reporters during the Philippine thrift banks’ annual convention on Tuesday, July 15.

Just before the initial three-month pause on reciprocal tariffs ended on July 9, United States (US) President Donald Trump had stretched it to Aug. 1, but hiked the rates for Philippine exports to 20 percent from 17 percent previously, repeatedly citing the “significant and persistent trade deficit” that the trade giant has with its former colony.

Velasquez noted that the tariff hike was among the uncertainties that the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) had considered in downscaling its growth target for the year, through 2028.

Last month, the economic team slashed its 2025 GDP growth target to between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent from six- to 6.5-percent previously. Cited as factors were heightened external uncertainties, especially the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the imposition of US tariffs.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto told reporters during an informal press chat on Wednesday, July 16, that he expects the economy to accelerate “significantly” in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter.

“In effect, the target is still six percent for the year,” Recto noted, taking off from the recently revised growth goal. “Realistically, it’s probably around 5.7 percent or 5.8 percent for the year. It depends, because there’s a lot of uncertainty—uncertainty with trade policy.”

“But I think the second quarter will definitely be better than the first,” Recto said, noting that the improvement will be driven by both government and household consumption.

The DBCC had also narrowed the growth target range for 2026 to 2028 to six to seven percent, from the previously more ambitious six to eight percent.

“We did recognize those [tariffs]. When we dialed down on our growth target in 2025, it’s really because of the external factors that we were seeing,” Velasquez said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national economy is not strong enough to achieve 6% GDP growth by the end of this year? What do you think the national government should do to strengthen economic growth and make the Philippines more attractive to foreign investors? Do you think the Philippines still has a chance to convince America to lower its planned tariff on Philippine-made goods?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine economy grew by 5.4% in 1st quarter of 2025

May 12, 2025May 8, 2025carlocarrasco

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.4% in the first quarter of this year, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of GMA Network. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy expanded faster in the first three months of 2025 amid the growth seen in services, industry, and agriculture sectors, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) —the value of goods and services produced in a period— grew faster by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, higher than the upwardly revised growth rate of 5.3% in the last quarter of 2024, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa reported at a press conference in Quezon City on Thursday.

This was also the fastest GDP growth rate seen since the third quarter of 2024, albeit slower than the 5.9% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2024.

At constant prices, the economy reached a value of P5.477 trillion during the period, up 5.4% from P5.196-trillion GDP seen in the same quarter last year.

Department of Economy, Planning and Development Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon said the country’s GDP needs to increase by 6.2% in the remaining quarters of 2025 to hit at least the lower-end of the. government’s growth target of 6% to 7% for the year.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can still grow by 6% by the end of the year? Do you think election spending will add a lot to economic growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Proposed measure to increase tax on capital gains withdrawn by DOF

May 5, 2025April 30, 2025carlocarrasco

In recent times, the Department of Finance (DOF) has withdrawn the proposed measure on increasing taxes on capital gains pointing to certain economic factors according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of GMA News. Some parts in boldface…

The proposed measure increasing taxes on capital gains, donor’s, and estate to 10% from 6% has been withdrawn as the Department of Finance (DOF) determined that there would be “no need” for additional revenue measures, citing the government’s robust fiscal position.

In a statement, Albay 2nd District Representative and House Ways and Means chairman Joey Sarte Salceda disclosed that the DOF pulled out the Government Revenues Optimization through the Wealth Tax Harmonization (GROWTH) Bill, which proposed a hike in tax rate for capital gains, donor taxes, and estate taxes.

The bill is the Marcos administration’s tweaked version of the Passive Income and Financial Intermediary Taxation Act (PIFITA), proposed by the Duterte administration as Package 4 of its Comprehensive Tax Reform Program (CTRP).

Citing a letter from the DOF, dated April 29, Salceda said the Finance Department is withdrawing the proposed measure, citing “stronger-than-expected revenue collections, a double-digit growth rate in tax collections, and steady progress toward the government’s fiscal consolidation goals.”

In a separate statement, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said that “given our current strong fiscal performance, these are not needed at this time.”

“The government is properly managing its finances, ensuring that public needs are met without burdening the citizenry with new taxes,” he added.

‘More than sufficient’ – In particular, the Finance chief cited the 13.55% growth in total tax collections to P931.5 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

Broken down, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) posted P690.4 billion in collections, up 16.67% year-on-year; while the Bureau of Customs saw a 5.72% growth in collection to P231.4 billion during the same period.

“At this point, current revenues are more than sufficient to support our expenditure requirements. We are meeting our obligations, funding key programs, and growing the economy without having to impose new taxes on our kababayan,” Recto said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think it was just right for the DOF to withdraw the measure? Do you thinking hiking capital gains tax, donor taxes and estate taxes are needed to ensure economic growth for the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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