Tag: World Bank (WB)

World Bank Predicts Philippine Economic Growth Will Be 3.7% This Year

World Bank Predicts Philippine Economic Growth Will Be 3.7% This Year

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Recently the World Bank (WB) revised its 2026 economy growth for the Philippines forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) growth of only 3.7%, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE WORLD BANK slashed its growth forecast for the Philippines to 3.7% this year, well below the government’s target, as the war in the Middle East weighs on economic activity.

The World Bank on Wednesday said it sees Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 3.7% for 2026, significantly slower than the previous projection of 5.3%

If realized, it will also be slower than the post-pandemic low of 4.4% in 2025 and below the Philippine government’s 5-6% GDP target range for 2026.

“Our main projection is that overall growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is going to decline in 2026,” Aaditya Mattoo, director of research of the World Bank Group, said in an online briefing on the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update.

“Most countries in the region are going to see slower growth in 2026 than they have in 2025. That is our projection,” he added, citing the impact of the conflict in the Middle East as well as trade disruptions.

“The good news is we are likely to see a bounce back in 2027,” Mr. Mattoo said.

The World Bank raised its GDP growth projection for the Philippines to 5.6% in 2027 from 5.4% previously. It is within the government’s 5.5-6.5% target for 2027.

However, Mr. Mattoo said the Middle East war will have an impact on remittances in the East Asia and Pacific region, particularly the Philippines.

“Countries like the Philippines, which depend strongly on remittances, will see remittances from the Gulf… diminish,” he said.

Ergys Islamaj, a senior economist at the World Bank, said the Philippine economy is mainly exposed to the Middle East conflict through remittances as well as energy and fertilizer imports.

“Eighteen percent of remittances to the Philippines in 2025 came from the Gulf. Longer conflict will hurt the economy further,” he said.

In 2025, cash remittances soared to an all-time high of $35.634 billion, accounting for 7.3% of the country’s GDP. Remittances from Saudi Arabia accounted for 6.6% of the total, while the United Arab Emirates made up 4.6% and Qatar made up 2.9%.

The Philippines is a net importer of crude oil and sources most of its supply from the Middle East, making the country vulnerable to global crude price swings.

Mr. Mattoo said that global oil prices are expected to be as much as $20 higher even a year from now compared to the prices before the war broke out.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will grow slower this year? Do you think the Philippines is highly vulnerable as it depends on the Middle East for a great majority of its oil imports? Do you think the Philippines will eventually make new deals with Communist China and the Islamic terrorist regime of Iran for economic needs?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

World Bank Sees Philippine Economy Growing 4.6% This Year And 5.3% In 2027

World Bank Sees Philippine Economy Growing 4.6% This Year And 5.3% In 2027

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With the ongoing war in the Middle East, the hiked prices of fuel and other problems happening already, the World Bank (WB) sees the economy of the Philippines achieving gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.6% this year and 5.3% next year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine economic growth would likely remain below its potential of at least six percent until the end of the Marcos Jr. administration, according to the latest forecasts by the World Bank.

Documents on the latest $800-million Philippines Growth and Jobs Development Policy Loan (DPL) 1, approved by the Washington-based multilateral lender last week, showed a projected 4.6- percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the country in 2026, inching up from the post-pandemic-low of 4.4 percent in 2025. This forecast is below the government’s downgraded five- to six-percent growth target for the year.

For 2027, the World Bank expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.3 percent, which would also be lower than next year’s downscaled 5.5- to 6.5-percent goal.

By the time President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. steps down and turns over to a new administration in 2028, World Bank projections showed 5.5-percent GDP growth, still below the six- to seven-percent target.

“The growth outlook remains moderate over the near term, with activity expected to remain subdued in 2026 before gradually strengthening… The impact of the government’s anti-corruption efforts and a significantly lower infrastructure budget in 2026 is expected to weigh on public investment,” the World Bank said.

The lender added that a smaller statistical carry-over into 2026 signals weaker initial momentum, with growth projected to average 5.2 percent in 2026 to 2028, driven by recovering private domestic demand amid easing inflation and financing conditions.

“Private consumption is expected to benefit from stable labor income and improved confidence, while private investment gradually strengthens alongside improved credit conditions and a normalization of public capital spending. External demand, particularly for electronics and artificial intelligence (AI)-related exports, is projected to remain supportive, although global trade uncertainty presents downside risks,” the document said.

This World Bank report was prepared in mid-February before it was disclosed last week, which means that the impact of the war in the Middle East was not yet taken into consideration by the lender in its GDP growth forecasts.

At that time, the World Bank projected headline inflation to stay within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) two- to four-percent target range, averaging about 2.8 percent in 2026 to 2028.

Before the domestic price pressures wrought by the Middle East conflict that sent global oil prices soaring, the World Bank believed that the BSP would likely keep a neutral-to-supportive policy stance while balancing the still-negative output gap against risks from exchange-rate volatility and food inflation. A negative output gap refers to the economy expanding below its potential, which, for the Philippines, is estimated at about six percent annually.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economic growth predictions of the World Bank for the Philippines will turn out to be true in the near future? Do you think there is any hope left for the economy of the Philippines to achieve annual GDP growth of 6%? Do you think more foreign investors will be convinced to invest in the Philippines this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

World Bank Sees Philippine Economy Gradually Recovering In 2026 And 2027

World Bank Sees Philippine Economy Gradually Recovering In 2026 And 2027

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The World Bank (WB) sees the economy of the Philippines making a gradual recovery in 2026 and 2027 fueled by strong domestic demand, according to a news report by BusinessWorld. The WB also stressed that corruption is unacceptable.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE WORLD BANK (WB) sees a gradual recovery for the Philippines in 2026 and 2027, after growth slowed this year due to weaker investment and sluggish consumption, compounded by a corruption scandal and a string of natural disasters.

In its latest Philippines Economic Update released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender trimmed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5.1% for this year from 5.3% in its June report. For 2026, it lowered its Philippine GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.4% previously.

The World Bank also cut its Philippine GDP growth projection for 2027 to 5.4% from 5.5% previously.

These latest projections are below the government’s 5.5-6.5% growth goal for this year and the 6-7% target for 2026 to 2028.

“To borrow from Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo (Management), it’s a Nike swoosh pattern. He describes the US economy, and I’m describing our forecast for the Philippines as a kind of Nike swoosh. We have a dip in 2025, and then we have a gradual recovery in 2026 to 2027,” World Bank Senior Economist Jaffar Al-Rikabi said during a briefing.

He noted the average growth of the Philippines over 2025 to 2027 will be lower than 2024 when GDP expanded by 5.7%.

“For 2025… the growth is largely weighed down by domestic factors. In particular, lower construction activity and weaker consumption growth,” he said.

The Philippine economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 4% in the third quarter, bringing nine-month growth to 5%, as the pace of household final consumption expenditure and government spending slowed amid a corruption scandal.

Mr. Al-Rikabi also noted the deceleration in fixed investment and private consumption due to higher-than-expected number of natural disasters that hit the Philippines this year.

“But for 2026 to 2027, we think that it’s likely that external factors will weigh more heavily on growth, largely slower export demand,” Mr. Al-Rikabi said.

The US imposed a 19% tariff on most goods from the Philippines starting August, dampening export demand.

The World Bank said the Philippine economy’s growth will pick up in 2026 and 2027, fueled by strong domestic demand.

“Private consumption is projected to strengthen as inflation stays low, employment remains robust, and monetary easing lowers interest rates, making it easier for businesses and households to borrow,” it said in the report.

According to the World Bank, private consumption, which accounts for more than 70% of the economy, is projected to expand by 4.8% this year, slowing from 4.9% in 2024. This is expected to pick up to 5.3% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027.

The World Bank said investment is likely to recover as public infrastructure projects regain momentum, while recent liberalization reforms in telecommunications, transport, logistics and renewable energy improve the business climate.

The multilateral lender also expects headline inflation to average 1.8% this year, describing the pace as “very moderate” and a key source of resilience. This forecast is slightly above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.7% projection for 2025 and the 1.6% average recorded in the first 11 months.

‘CORRUPTION IS UNACCEPTABLE’ – Even as the Philippine economy will see a gradual recovery in the next two years, Mr. Al-Rikabi noted risks are tilted to the downside, with “more prominent” domestic drivers.

“There is a continued challenge of heightened perceptions around governance risks. This could, if it continues, erode investor confidence. It could delay public investment execution, and it could weaken growth,” he said.

The World Bank economist also noted there may be delays in fiscal and structural reforms amid the current domestic environment, “which could slow consolidation and weigh on growth over the medium term.”

A corruption scandal involving anomalous flood control projects has already triggered protests, slowed economic activity, and shaken investor confidence in the country.

“From the World Bank perspective, corruption is unacceptable,” World Bank Country Director for the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei Zafer Mustafaoğlu said during the same briefing.

“The World Bank considers it detrimental to any country and has been fighting against corruption in all the member countries that we operate in,” he added.

Mr. Mustafaoğlu said the Philippine government could take this opportunity to increase transparency and modernize its budget execution system “that could actually support longer-term growth and can increase investment confidence (and) can increase long-term potential growth,” he said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the national economy will recover gradually in 2026 and 2027 as the World Bank predicted? With inflation being low, do you feel confident about spending for your needs and wants in the short term?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

World Bank Flags Slowing Philippine Economy As Flood Control Scandal Controversy And Softening Financial Market Go On

World Bank Flags Slowing Philippine Economy As Flood Control Scandal Controversy And Softening Financial Market Go On

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The embarrassment of the ongoing flood control corruption scandals and the slowing economy of the Philippines caught the attention of the World Bank (WB) as it released a detailed assessment of the nation, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The World Bank (WB) has flagged a slowing Philippine economy as investor sentiment weakens, financial markets soften, and manufacturing and exports falter—even as joblessness steadies and inflation stays below target.

“There are signs that economic activity may be decelerating” in the country, the WB said in its Philippines Monthly Economic Developments report for September 2025, published on Oct. 14.

The WB highlighted that investor sentiment toward domestic financial assets weakened in September, with the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) falling 0.9 percent between August and Sept. 18—contrasting with the rising stock markets of regional peers since July.

The WB noted that while interest rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)—which lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75 percent last Oct. 9—and the United States (US) Federal Reserve supported early September gains, negative market developments later limited buying activity in the domestic stock market.

Among these “unfavorable market updates” were “governance issues in flood control projects, an uptrend in inflation and unemployment, and lower foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows,” the report said.

“Amid these developments, foreign investors became net sellers of local shares. This contributed to the slight weakening of the Philippine peso against the US dollar,” the report noted.

“In real effective terms, the Philippine peso depreciated in August against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners” and sustained a slight depreciation last month, it added.

The WB also noted that the Philippines’ merchandise export growth fell to an eight-month low in August, with exports rising just 4.6 percent year-on-year as shipments to the US declined following the introduction of higher tariffs.

This came even as export growth was “driven by sustained demand for semiconductors and electronic data processing equipment, primarily from Hong Kong and Japan,” the report added.

Meanwhile, the WB emphasized that merchandise import values declined by 4.9 percent year-on-year last August, mainly due to lower global prices for coal and petroleum products. The Philippines is a net oil importer. The report also noted that imports of raw materials and intermediate goods fell after robust growth in prior months.

Imports of motor vehicles, however, rose—driven by strong consumer demand. The WB noted that, in all, the goods trade deficit narrowed from $4.4 billion in July to $3.5 billion in August.

The WB also highlighted that high-frequency data indicated a slowdown in manufacturing activity, with output rising just 1.4 percent year-on-year in August, largely supported by growth in the food products sector.

However, the WB said that production of electrical equipment as well as computer, electronic, and optical products decelerated, reflecting the slowdown in export growth.

The WB also noted that the country’s S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for September dropped to 49.9, falling below the neutral threshold for the first time in six months and indicating a contraction in activity.

“Despite modest gains in external demand, output and new orders from the domestic market declined, and business confidence, while positive, remained subdued,” the WB added.

The WB further highlighted that labor market conditions steadied as the effects of weather-related disruptions eased, noting that the unemployment rate held steady year-on-year at 3.9 percent in August, rebounding from a temporary rise in July caused by adverse weather that affected agriculture and fisheries.

The WB said that employment in wholesale and retail trade fell year-on-year, although the reasons behind the decline remain unclear and require careful monitoring.

“The government expects further improvement in labor market conditions as weather-sensitive sectors continue to recover in the near term,” the WB added.

The WB stressed that inflation has increased moderately in recent months but remains below the central bank’s target, with headline inflation reaching a six-month high of 1.7 percent in September due to the delayed effects of weather-related supply disruptions, which pushed up food prices, especially for vegetables and oils.

“Despite this, average inflation remains below the two- to four-percent inflation band set by the BSP and is partly limited by sustained rice disinflation,” the WB said.

Year-on-year drops in rice prices helped ease inflationary pressures on the poorest 30 percent of households, with their consumer price index (CPI) falling by 0.2 percent in September, the report added.

“Favorable inflation dynamics and moderating domestic demand” supported the BSP’s monetary easing, the WB said, adding that the central bank has “space for a more accommodative policy stance in the context of a weaker outlook for economic growth.”

The WB stated that external imbalances widened in the first half of 2025, though foreign reserves remained sufficient, noting that the current account deficit grew to 3.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—up 0.3 percentage point (ppt) year-on-year—driven by strong domestic demand that boosted goods imports.

“Higher spending by Filipino tourists abroad and lower inbound tourism receipts also contributed to a decline in net receipts from services trade,” it added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? What do you think the national government should do to improve the nation’s economic conditions? Do you agree with what the WB reported about the Philippines? If you have been managing a business for at least one year, has 2025 been a rough business year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

World Bank (WB) sees strong Philippine economic growth in 2024 and 2025

World Bank (WB) sees strong Philippine economic growth in 2024 and 2025

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By citing positive factors in its latest report, the World Bank (WB) raised its Philippine economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE World Bank (WB) has raised its economic growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and in 2025, driven by improved service exports and public investments.

But weak consumption and investment will keep the country’s growth below pre-pandemic levels, it said.

In its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, the Washington-based multilateral lender now expects the Philippine economy to grow by 6% this year from 5.8%.

The Philippines could become the second-fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia, behind Vietnam (6.1%) and ahead of Cambodia (5.3%), Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.9%), Laos (4.1%), Timor-Leste (3%), Thailand (2.4%) and Myanmar (1%).

“Among the larger countries, only Indonesia is expected to grow in 2024 and 2025 above pre-pandemic levels, while growth in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam is expected to be below those levels,” the World Bank said.

For 2025, it forecasts Philippine economic output to expand by 6.1% from 5.9% in its April forecast.

The lender’s growth forecasts for the Philippines are at the low end of the government’s target of 6-7% for 2024 and below the 6.5-7.5% goal for next year.

The Philippine economy grew by 6.3% in the second quarter, faster than 5.8% in the previous quarter and 4.3% a year ago. In the first half, growth averaged 6%.

The World Bank said service exports and public investment have supported Philippine economic growth, but consumption and private investment remain weak.

From 2024 to 2026, the lender expects the Philippine economy to grow by an average of 6%, it said in a separate report.

This will be supported by remittances, jobs, slower inflation and external demand. However, weaker growth in China, global economic slowdown and weather disruptions are risks to the outlook.

It also projects the government’s budget deficit to fall to 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2026 due to improved state spending. This is slightly below the 4.73% target for the year.

Better revenue collection will be supported by key tax measures, improved tax administration and higher dividends from state-owned corporations, the World Bank said.

The lender also raised this year’s growth forecast for the East Asia-Pacific region to 4.8% from 4.5% in April.

“Most East Asia-Pacific economies are expected to experience robust growth in 2024, supported by private consumption and a positive external environment,” according to the report. In 2025, the region is expected to grow by 4.4% from its previous forecast of 4.3%.

However, domestic demand is expected to moderate in the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, while private investment growth remains weak across the region.

“Investment growth has been declining across most countries in the region over the past two decades, with particularly sharp drops in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and more recently, the Philippines.”

It also noted that the Philippines and Malaysia have kept a conservative fiscal stance due to their higher structural deficit this year.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines has enough momentum to exceed the WB’s economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

World Bank says that Philippines inflation will likely slow down this year

World Bank says that Philippines inflation will likely slow down this year

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The World Bank (WB) recently announced that it sees inflation in the Philippines likely to go down this year and fall within the target range set by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE INFLATION is likely to slow this year to fall within the central bank’s target range, but higher transport charges and domestic rice production pose upside risks, the World Bank said.

In its latest monthly update, the World Bank said that the entry of more rice imports under lower tariffs should help keep inflation within the government’s 2-4% target.

“Inflation resumed its downward trend in August and is on track to fall within target this year,” the Washington-based lender said.

The consumer price index (CPI) eased to 3.3% in August from 4.4% in July. Inflation averaged 3.6% in the first seven months.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects inflation to average 3.4% this year.

“The balance of risks to the outlook has shifted toward the downside given expected reductions in rice prices as more imports arrive under the reduced tariff regime,” the World Bank said.

An executive order cutting tariffs on rice to 15% from 35% took effect in July. This helped rice inflation ease to 14.7% in August from 20.9% in July.

However, the World Bank said higher transport and electricity charges, as well as possible global oil and food price shocks still provide upside risks to the inflation outlook.

“Domestic rice production and prices also remain vulnerable with the La Niña weather phenomenon expected to bring more rainfall and intense typhoons in the remaining months of the year,” World Bank said.

Meanwhile, the World Bank said recent external and domestic developments have given the BSP more space for policy easing.

“Peso appreciation, driven by a wider US interest rate differential, supports domestic disinflation. This gives more room for further normalization of domestic monetary policy,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation in the Philippines will continue to slow down as the end of 2024 approaches?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

World Bank sees Philippine economy growing at 5.8% this year

World Bank sees Philippine economy growing at 5.8% this year

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While local economic managers predict the Philippine economy growing between 6.5% to 7.5% this year, the World Bank (WB) itself forecasts a 5.8% growth for 2024, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE WORLD BANK (WB) expects the Philippines to be among the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia this year.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects, the multilateral lender projected Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 5.8% in 2024, same as its forecast in December.

The Philippine growth projection is the fastest among Southeast Asian economies, tied with Cambodia (5.8%), and ahead of Vietnam (5.5%), Indonesia (4.9%), Malaysia (4.3%), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (4.1%), Timor-Leste (3.5%), Thailand (3.2%) and Myanmar (2%).

However, this is below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) 6.5-7.5% growth target for 2024.

The World Bank’s growth forecast for the Philippines is also higher than its 4.5% projection for East Asia and the Pacific.

The multilateral lender sees slower growth in the region due to the “anticipated deceleration in economic activity in China.”

Other risks to the growth outlook include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could lead to higher oil prices, dampened global trade, tightening financial conditions and climate-related disasters, it said.

“Extreme weather events, the frequency of which has increased in recent decades as a result of climate change, also pose a downside risk to the regional outlook,” it added.

In the Philippines, the government is preparing for the potential impact of the El Niño weather event this year.

The latest bulletin from the state weather bureau showed that El Niño will likely persist from March to May, when dry season crops are often harvested.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said El Niño would likely affect the agriculture sector and drive food prices higher, which could threaten the inflation downtrend.

On the other hand, the multilateral lender said resilient domestic demand could spur growth drivers in the East Asia and Pacific region.

“Modest inflation, and in many cases robust labor markets supported by buoyant service activity, are anticipated to sustain household spending,” it said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will grow better this year than the WB’s prediction of 5.8%?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

World Bank sees strong economic growth for the Philippines this year and in 2024

World Bank sees strong economic growth for the Philippines this year and in 2024

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Recently the World Bank announced that the economy of the Philippines will continue to grow strongly this year and next year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The World Bank on Tuesday said the Philippine economy is expected to continue to post strong growth but fully implementing key reforms to boost investments is crucial to sustain growth.

“We anticipate that the Philippine economy will continue to exhibit strong performance in the next few years,” World Bank country director for Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand Ndiame Diop said in briefing for the presentation of the Philippines Economic Update (PEU) December 2023 edition.

“This growth will be propelled by a healthy labor market and declining inflation, which will stimulate robust household consumption,” he said.

For this year, the World Bank expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.6 percent and edge up to 5.8 percent in 2024.

The services sector is anticipated to be the main growth driver supported by the ongoing recovery of the tourism sector and the consistent performance of the information technology and business process outsourcing industry.

“We expect that the full implementation of several investment reforms will enhance the country’s competitiveness to attract foreign investment, strengthening the country’s global growth prospects,” said Diop.

The Philippine economy grew by 5.9 percent in the third quarter of the year, bringing the year-to-date economic expansion to 5.5 percent.

“Despite the challenging global environment that resulted in a slowdown for many countries in the region, the Philippines stands out as among the top performers,” Diop added.

He said this can be attributed to the country’s resilient domestic demand which helped mitigate the impact of external headwinds.

Inflation, meanwhile, is forecast to settle at 5.9 percent this year and ease to 3.6 percent in 2024.

Policy recommendations – Diop pointed out that moving forward, full implementation of key forms is needed to mitigate the impact of high inflation amid volatility in global commodity prices and high cost of borrowings to stimulate private investment, promote job creation and reduce poverty.

These include the amendments to the Public Services Act, Retail Trade Liberalization Act, the Foreign Investment Act and amendments to the implementing rules and regulations of the Renewable Energy Act allowing foreign ownership of renewable energy projects.

World Bank senior economist Ralph Van Doorn said that in the short term, domestic policy priorities include containing elevated inflation and providing assistance to vulnerable sectors.

Van Doorn said enhancing forecasting and planning to help stabilize food prices, reducing market volatility and ensuring a consistent and reliable food supply remains fundamental to reducing inflation in the short term.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the World Bank is correct with its findings about the economy of the Philippines?  

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

World Bank raises forecast on Philippine economy growth for 2023

World Bank raises forecast on Philippine economy growth for 2023

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With the year 2023 nearing the half-way point, the World Bank revised its forecast on the Philippine economy seeing a 6% growth (versus the previous 5.4% growth forecast), according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news article. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY is likely to grow by 6% this year amid strong domestic demand and despite elevated inflation, the World Bank said, raising its forecast from 5.4% in January.

A recovery in jobs, improved consumer sentiment and strong remittances from Filipinos overseas would drive local consumption, the multilateral lender said in its Global Economic Prospects report on Wednesday.

“Despite external challenges, high domestic inflation and tight monetary conditions, domestic demand has once again remained resilient, fueling growth,” World Bank Country Director for the Philippines Ndiame Diop separately told a virtual news briefing.

The latest growth forecast is the lower end of the government’s 6-7% growth target this year. The Philippine economy grew by 6.4% in the first quarter, slower than 8% a year ago and 7.1%  a quarter earlier.

“Despite weak global conditions, our upward revision reflects this continued strength in domestic demand,” World Bank Philippines Senior Economist Ralph van Doorn said.

But the potential global slowdown could still affect growth. “Although the global economy displayed remarkable resilience in early 2023, economic conditions will remain subdued for the rest of 2023,” Mr. Diop said.

He said global growth is expected to wane due to “persistent inflation, slowdown of global trade and the effect of recent monetary tightening.”

The World Bank expects global growth to slow to 2.1% this year, though this is higher than its earlier 1.7% projection. It also sees global growth reaching 2.4% next year and 3% in 2025.

“Risks remain tilted to the downside,” Mr. Diop said. “Recent episodes of market instability have raised concerns of a potential spillover. The possibility of further monetary tightening amid sticky core inflation could raise the cost of global financing and lead to a more pronounced and prolonged global slowdown.”

Persistent inflation remained a cause for concern, the World Bank said.

“Although our baseline forecast (shows) inflation will decelerate, it is still the main challenge,” Mr. van Doorn said.

The World Bank expects Philippine inflation to average 5.7% this year, higher than its earlier 4.2% forecast.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you agree with the World Bank’s analysis about economic growth for the Philippines this year? Do you think the Philippine economy can do better than expected by the end of 2023?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

BSP sees 6-7% economic growth in 2023 for Philippines

BSP sees 6-7% economic growth in 2023 for Philippines

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As far as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is concerned, the Philippine economy will grow between 6% to 7% this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld. By comparison, HSBC and the World Bank forecast growth rates of 4.4% and 5.4% respectively.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

THE “CONTINUED NORMALIZATION” of post-pandemic mobility will help the Philippine economy expand within the government’s 6-7% target this year, but slower growth is likely in 2024, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

“GDP (gross domestic product) growth is projected to settle within the DBCC’s (Development Budget Coordination Committee) target of 6-7% for 2023, but economic headwinds could result in slower GDP growth in 2024,” the BSP said in its latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR).  

“The full-year growth forecast for 2023 was adjusted upward from the previous MPR. Meanwhile, the growth forecast for 2024 is lower compared to previous round, reflecting weaker global prospects and the impact of cumulative policy rate adjustments of the BSP,” it added.  

While the central bank does not give its exact growth forecasts, the DBCC targets 6.5-8% GDP growth in 2024.

According to the central bank, the economy will be “driven by growth in the industry sector as manufacturers signal increased production plans as the economy reopens further.”  

Based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the service sector expanded by 9.8% in the fourth quarter last year, while the industry sector grew by 4.8%. Annually, services jumped by 9.2%, and industry expanded by 6.7%.

Better labor market conditions, higher demand for tourism, and greater economic activity due to the resumption of face-to-face classes are seen to boost growth in the services sector, the BSP said.  

“Moreover, the implementation of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) Law, Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer (FIST) Act, and the second tranche of the reduction in personal income taxes could help further bolster the domestic outlook in 2023-2024,” it added.

Meanwhile, the overall balance of supply and demand conditions, as reflected by the output gap, is expected to “remain broadly neutral” in the near term.  

“Estimates from the BSP’s Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh) indicate that the output gap is estimated to be slightly positive in early 2023, reflecting the sustained economic expansion in 2022,” the central bank said.  

The economy grew by 7.6% in 2022, exceeding the government’s 6.5-7.5% target, and the fastest growth since 1975.

“Thereafter, the output gap is seen to remain in broadly neutral territory as the impact of policy interest rate adjustments takes hold on the economy. A projected slowdown in global growth owing in part to tightening monetary conditions across countries could likewise dampen aggregate demand,” the BSP said.  

The Monetary Board last week increased the benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 6%, the highest in nearly 16 years. Rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also increased to 5.5% and 6.5%, respectively.

According to analysts, higher interest rates could drag economic growth slower this year.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines can achieve economic growth beyond 6% this year? Do you think the government should do more with post-pandemic living and economics in mind?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco