World Bank sees 5.4% economic growth for the Philippines in 2023

As it continues to make predictions about different nations’ economies around the world, the World Bank (WB) revealed that it sees the Philippines achieving 5.4% economic growth in 2023, according to a BusinessWorld news report. The said forecast goes against the more optimistic 2023 target of the Philippine government.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth would probably slow to 5.4% this year, from an estimated 7.2% in 2022, amid a looming global recession, the World Bank (WB) said.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, it trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines from its 5.6% projection in June.

The World Bank’s latest GDP forecast is below the government’s 6-7% growth target for the year.

“After the strong rebound in 2022, growth in Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam is expected to moderate as the growth of exports to major markets slows,” it said.

In December, the World Bank upgraded its forecast for the Philippines to 7.2% for 2022 from 6.5%, amid a surge in private consumption and robust export growth.

The Philippine economy expanded by 7.6% in the third quarter, bringing the nine-month average to 7.7%. The strong third-quarter data prompted economic managers to say that full-year GDP growth would settle above the 6.5-7.5% target.

“The recovery from the pandemic-induced recession has been uneven across the region. Output surpassed pre-pandemic levels last year in Cambodia, the Philippines and Thailand,” the World Bank said.

However, a “sharp, long-lasting” slowdown in the global economy this year is expected to affect nearly all regions, particularly developing countries, World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement.

Global growth is expected to decelerate sharply to 1.7% in 2023 — the third weakest pace of growth in nearly three decades, overshadowed only by the global recessions caused by the pandemic and the global financial crisis,” the multilateral lender said in the report, noting this is 1.3 percentage points below previous forecasts.

The World Bank said the latest estimate reflects “synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

It said urgent global efforts are needed to mitigate the risks of a global recession and debt distress in emerging market and developing economies.

By the end of 2024, GDP levels in these markets will be about 6% below pre-pandemic levels, according to the report.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this new development? Do you agree with the WB’s analysis about slower economic growth for the Philippines this year? What do you think will help the Philippines achieve the more optimistic targets set by the national government?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.


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