Tag: World Bank (WB)

BSP sees 6-7% economic growth in 2023 for Philippines

BSP sees 6-7% economic growth in 2023 for Philippines

carlocarrasco

As far as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is concerned, the Philippine economy will grow between 6% to 7% this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld. By comparison, HSBC and the World Bank forecast growth rates of 4.4% and 5.4% respectively.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

THE “CONTINUED NORMALIZATION” of post-pandemic mobility will help the Philippine economy expand within the government’s 6-7% target this year, but slower growth is likely in 2024, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

“GDP (gross domestic product) growth is projected to settle within the DBCC’s (Development Budget Coordination Committee) target of 6-7% for 2023, but economic headwinds could result in slower GDP growth in 2024,” the BSP said in its latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR).  

“The full-year growth forecast for 2023 was adjusted upward from the previous MPR. Meanwhile, the growth forecast for 2024 is lower compared to previous round, reflecting weaker global prospects and the impact of cumulative policy rate adjustments of the BSP,” it added.  

While the central bank does not give its exact growth forecasts, the DBCC targets 6.5-8% GDP growth in 2024.

According to the central bank, the economy will be “driven by growth in the industry sector as manufacturers signal increased production plans as the economy reopens further.”  

Based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the service sector expanded by 9.8% in the fourth quarter last year, while the industry sector grew by 4.8%. Annually, services jumped by 9.2%, and industry expanded by 6.7%.

Better labor market conditions, higher demand for tourism, and greater economic activity due to the resumption of face-to-face classes are seen to boost growth in the services sector, the BSP said.  

“Moreover, the implementation of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) Law, Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer (FIST) Act, and the second tranche of the reduction in personal income taxes could help further bolster the domestic outlook in 2023-2024,” it added.

Meanwhile, the overall balance of supply and demand conditions, as reflected by the output gap, is expected to “remain broadly neutral” in the near term.  

“Estimates from the BSP’s Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh) indicate that the output gap is estimated to be slightly positive in early 2023, reflecting the sustained economic expansion in 2022,” the central bank said.  

The economy grew by 7.6% in 2022, exceeding the government’s 6.5-7.5% target, and the fastest growth since 1975.

“Thereafter, the output gap is seen to remain in broadly neutral territory as the impact of policy interest rate adjustments takes hold on the economy. A projected slowdown in global growth owing in part to tightening monetary conditions across countries could likewise dampen aggregate demand,” the BSP said.  

The Monetary Board last week increased the benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 6%, the highest in nearly 16 years. Rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also increased to 5.5% and 6.5%, respectively.

According to analysts, higher interest rates could drag economic growth slower this year.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines can achieve economic growth beyond 6% this year? Do you think the government should do more with post-pandemic living and economics in mind?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Philippine government sees economy growing around 6.5% for 2023

Philippine government sees economy growing around 6.5% for 2023

carlocarrasco

Even though HSBC and the World Bank revealed their own 2023 economic growth forecasts for the Philippines to be below 6%, the national government still sees the economy growing around 6.5% this year, according to a recent Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine government expects a strong full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2022, most likely much faster than its growth target of 6.5 to 7.5 percent, Department of Finance (DOF) Secretary Benjamin Diokno said here on Jan. 16 (Switzerland time).

Diokno said this during a Monday luncheon hosted for President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Philippine chief executive officers (CEOs) in Davos, Switzerland.

In addition, Diokno said the Philippine economy is seen to “grow by around 6.5 percent this year” due to the expected slowdown of the global economy.

“And that’s still one of the highest, if not the highest, growth projection in the Asia-Pacific Region,” he said.

According to Diokno, the country’s bustling manufacturing sector, record-low unemployment, and stable and resilient banking system can alleviate buffers against external headwinds, all indicating a resilient economy.

Further, opening economic sectors to foreign equity, improving the ease of doing business, and allowing modern transformative industries to take root and grow will sustain the economy.

At the same time, the Finance chief said the Marcos government has created a more competitive and enabling environment through public-private partnership (PPP) to expand further the Build, Better, More infrastructure agenda of the administration.

Diokno said this would further boost investments on top of the government’s goal to spend at least five to six percent of GDP on infrastructure, stressing all these form the backbone for the rapid and sustained growth of the Philippines.

But because of the current challenges, he said the Philippines is taking the first steps toward launching the Maharlika Investment Fund, the country’s first-ever sovereign wealth fund that will support the goals set by the administration in the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this new development? Do you believe that the Philippines’ economic fundamentals are strong enough to keep the economy growing around 6.5% this year? Do you think that the tourism industry alone will be a major driving force of economic growth and earning foreign currency? Apart from the announced Maharlika Investment Fund (sovereign wealth fund) new economic initiatives do you want to see from President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr.?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below and also please consider sharing this article to others. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. If you want to support my website, please consider making a donation. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco/.

For more South Metro Manila community news and developments, come back here soon. Also say NO to fake news, NO to irresponsible journalism, NO to misinformation, NO to plagiarists, NO to reckless publishers and NO to sinister propaganda when it comes to news and developments. For South Metro Manila community developments, member engagements, commerce and other relevant updates, join the growing South Metro Manila Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/342183059992673

World Bank sees 5.4% economic growth for the Philippines in 2023

World Bank sees 5.4% economic growth for the Philippines in 2023

carlocarrasco

As it continues to make predictions about different nations’ economies around the world, the World Bank (WB) revealed that it sees the Philippines achieving 5.4% economic growth in 2023, according to a BusinessWorld news report. The said forecast goes against the more optimistic 2023 target of the Philippine government.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth would probably slow to 5.4% this year, from an estimated 7.2% in 2022, amid a looming global recession, the World Bank (WB) said.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, it trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines from its 5.6% projection in June.

The World Bank’s latest GDP forecast is below the government’s 6-7% growth target for the year.

“After the strong rebound in 2022, growth in Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam is expected to moderate as the growth of exports to major markets slows,” it said.

In December, the World Bank upgraded its forecast for the Philippines to 7.2% for 2022 from 6.5%, amid a surge in private consumption and robust export growth.

The Philippine economy expanded by 7.6% in the third quarter, bringing the nine-month average to 7.7%. The strong third-quarter data prompted economic managers to say that full-year GDP growth would settle above the 6.5-7.5% target.

“The recovery from the pandemic-induced recession has been uneven across the region. Output surpassed pre-pandemic levels last year in Cambodia, the Philippines and Thailand,” the World Bank said.

However, a “sharp, long-lasting” slowdown in the global economy this year is expected to affect nearly all regions, particularly developing countries, World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement.

“Global growth is expected to decelerate sharply to 1.7% in 2023 — the third weakest pace of growth in nearly three decades, overshadowed only by the global recessions caused by the pandemic and the global financial crisis,” the multilateral lender said in the report, noting this is 1.3 percentage points below previous forecasts.

The World Bank said the latest estimate reflects “synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

It said urgent global efforts are needed to mitigate the risks of a global recession and debt distress in emerging market and developing economies.

By the end of 2024, GDP levels in these markets will be about 6% below pre-pandemic levels, according to the report.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this new development? Do you agree with the WB’s analysis about slower economic growth for the Philippines this year? What do you think will help the Philippines achieve the more optimistic targets set by the national government?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below and also please consider sharing this article to others. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. If you want to support my website, please consider making a donation. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco/.

For more South Metro Manila community news and developments, come back here soon. Also say NO to fake news, NO to irresponsible journalism, NO to misinformation, NO to plagiarists, NO to reckless publishers and NO to sinister propaganda when it comes to news and developments. For South Metro Manila community developments, member engagements, commerce and other relevant updates, join the growing South Metro Manila Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/342183059992673