economic dynamism – Page 13 – Author Carlo Carrasco

IMF raises Philippine economic growth forecast to 6.2% for 2024

April 30, 2024April 17, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2024 growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.2% which is within national government’s growth range for this year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news article. Some parts in boldface…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its Philippine growth forecast to 6.2 percent for 2024 from its previous estimate of six percent announced last January, citing carryover strength from the last quarter of 2023.

The IMF also expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 6.2 percent in 2025, higher than its January forecast of 6.1 percent.

Based on the April IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released Tuesday, April 16 (Washington time), the IMF also projects Philippine inflation will fall to below four percent this year and in 2025. Its projected year-end inflation is 3.6 percent for 2024 and three percent for 2025 which is within the government target of two percent to four percent.

Meanwhile, the 6.2 percent IMF GDP outlook for 2024 is within the Marcos administration’s growth target of six percent to seven percent but the 2025 projection is below the government target of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent.

IMF’s Resident Representative in the Philippines Ragnar Gudmundsson said in an email that real GDP growth for 2024 was revised slightly to 6.2 percent from six percent in the January WEO because of “carryover from a better-than-expected outturn in the last quarter of 2023.” The local economy grew by 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter 2023, bringing the full-year GDP to 5.6 percent.

As to the 2025 growth outlook, Gudmundsson said the 6.2 percent GDP expansion next year will be “supported by an acceleration in domestic demand and investment.”

“Over the medium term, structural reforms to close infrastructure and education gaps, attract greater FDI (foreign direct investments), and harness benefits from the digital economy should help realize a growth potential of about 6-6.5 percent. These reforms should be complemented by strengthening existing social protection schemes and addressing climate change through a more integrated strategy that includes a carbon pricing scheme,” he said.

Gudmundsson said the 6.2 percent GDP forecast for the Philippines “compares with an average growth rate for ASEAN countries in 2024 of 4.6 percent.”

Based on the latest WEO, the IMF forecast the Asian regional economy will grow by 4.5 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 2025.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippine economy has enough momentum to surpass the 6.2% growth forecast of the IMF for 2024? Do you think inflation in the country will slow down more than what the IMF predicts?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BIR extends deadline for online businesses to transition to new withholding tax system to July 14, 2024

April 29, 2024April 16, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) announced that July 14, 2024, is the new deadline for online businesses to transition to the new withholding tax system, according to a GMA Network news report. Previously the deadline was April 15, 2024 and online businesses with annual earnings of over P500,000 were to be covered by the 1% withholding tax.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) announced Tuesday that it has extended the deadline for online merchants to transition to the new withholding tax system by 90 days.

According to the agency, Revenue Memorandum Circular No. 55-2024 extended the transitory period for compliance with Revenue Regulations (RR) No. 16-2023 until July 14 after considering the private sector’s request on the implementation.

“This 90-day extension of the transitory period under RR No. 16-2023 shows the BIR’s commitment in listening to the voice of the private sector,” BIR Commissioner Jun Lumagui said in a statement.

“This is part of my administration’s thrust on Excellent Taxpayer Service. We hear the thoughts of the private sector, and if the same is reasonable, then we make policy adjustments for the benefit of the Filipino people,” added Lumagui.

Under RR No. 16-2023, one-half of the gross remittances of e-marketplace operations and digital financial services providers to the sellers or merchants for goods or services paid through their platform shall be subject to a 1% creditable withholding tax.

The BIR said that the online transactions industry has experienced growth during and after the coronavirus pandemic but it appeared that many online sellers were not paying their share in taxes.

RR No. 16-2023 was signed by Lumagui and Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno in December 2023.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that the new deadline will give all online businesses here in the Philippines enough time to transition into the new withholding tax system?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Foreign direct investments (FDI) inflows jump almost 90% in February 2024

April 23, 2024April 10, 2024carlocarrasco

The data released by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) confirmed that foreign direct investments (FDI) net inflow went up by almost ninety percent in February 2024, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. In terms of Dollar amount, the estimate was over $900 million.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Foreign direct investments (FDI) net inflow went up by 89.9 percent in February this year.

Data released by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Wednesday showed that FDI net inflows during the month amounted to USD907 million, up from the USD478 million recorded in January 2023.

FDIs include investment by a non-resident direct investor in a resident enterprise, whose equity capital in the latter is at least 10 percent, and investment made by a non-resident subsidiary or associate in its resident direct investor.

The BSP said an FDI can be in the form of equity capital, reinvestment of earnings, and borrowings.

“The increase in FDI was supported mainly by the 173.2 percent expansion in non-residents’ net investments in debt instruments to USD820 million from USD300 million in January 2023,” said the BSP.

Reinvestment of earnings also increased by 16.4 percent to USD99 million from USD85 million. The BSP said top sources of FDIs during the month include Japan and the United States.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think there is enough momentum for FDI net inflow to exceed the $1 billion mark by the first few months of 2025? Do you think the government is doing a good job attracting foreign investments?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines unemployment rate falls down to 3.5% in February 2024

April 23, 2024April 11, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) confirmed that the unemployment rate of the nation fell down to 3.5% in February 2024, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in February this year from 4.5 percent in January, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday.

In a briefing, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said based on the time series, the unemployment rate during the month was the second lowest on record since the 3.1 percent in December 2023. Unemployment rate in February last year was 4.8 percent.

Mapa said the number of unemployed Filipinos went down to 1.80 million from 2.47 million and 2.15 million unemployed persons in February 2023 and January 2024.

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), meanwhile, was at 64.8 percent or about 50.75 million Filipinos aged 15 years and above who were either employed or unemployed.

This is lower than the 66.6 percent LFPR seen in February last year with young people (-669,000) and women (-404,000) withdrawing from the labor force. 

“The needs of vulnerable groups, including women, youth, older people, and those with disabilities, remain our priority to encourage workforce participation. We will improve access to quality childcare, finance, and entrepreneurship opportunities to support women’s entry and retention in the labor market,” National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said in a separate statement.

Balisacan said the government will revisit the existing policy governing alternative work modes, such as the Telecommuting Act, and adapt it to the evolving work landscape to address the growing preference for remote work.

“The government will explore enhancing the potential of part-time work to help promote lifelong learning. A framework for part-time work and similar set-ups can allow workers to retool or upskill without leaving the workforce,” Balisacan said.

The country’s employment rate, meanwhile, went up to 96.5 percent in February from 95.5 percent in January and 95.2 percent in February this year.

The number of employed persons was registered at 48.95 million, higher than the recorded number of employed persons in February 2023 at 48.80 million and in January 2024 at 45.94 million.

Major industries with the largest increase in employment include construction (470,000), transportation and storage (444,000), administrative and support service activities (344,000), manufacturing (313,000), and accommodation and food service activities (210,000).

Underemployed persons – or those who expressed the desire to have additional hours of work in their current job or to have an additional job or to have a new job with longer hours of work – reached 6.08 million, down from last year’s 6.29 million.

The NEDA said the Marcos administration will continue to prioritize people-centered policies and attract job-creating investments to support the continued improvement of the Philippine labor market and enable Filipinos to earn higher wages from better jobs.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the nation’s economy and employers still have enough momentum to move forward and create more new jobs over the next twelve months?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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DBCC revises Philippine economic growth targets for 2024 and 2025

April 17, 2024April 7, 2024carlocarrasco

As far as the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is concerned, current domestic and global developments justified their recent revision of economic growth targets for the Philippines in 2024 and 2025, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has adjusted its economic growth targets for 2024 and 2025 due to current domestic and global developments.

The DBCC revised downward its gross domestic product (GDP) outlook for 2024 to 6 to 7 percent from the previous range of 6.5 to 7.5 percent, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said in a Palace press briefing on Thursday.

For 2025, the DBCC narrowed the GDP target to 6.5 to 7.5 percent from the previous 6.5 to 8 percent. Balisacan said the growth projection of 6.5 to 8 percent for 2026 to 2028 was retained.

The revised targets growth targets were initially discussed during the DBCC’s 187th meeting on March 22.

The DBCC took into consideration the latest trade outlook of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) amid global trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. approved the latest GDP outlook when he presided over the 16th full Cabinet meeting at Malacañan Palace in Manila on Wednesday.

Balisacan said the Marcos administration remains steadfast in its commitment to sustaining the robust growth trajectory of the Philippine economy.

“Robust macroeconomic fundamentals will support this growth trajectory. These growth targets will sustain the country’s position as one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region,” Balisacan said.

“The government’s dedication transcends meeting statistical targets or numerical benchmarks. We direct our efforts toward realizing a strategic and compelling vision for our nation’s prosperity even as we navigate a global economic landscape marked by various challenges within and without,” he added.

Balisacan also assured the public that the government is still on track to achieving the upper middle income status by 2025.

Opportunities and risks – Balisacan said the country’s economic team discussed the possible opportunities and risk to growth outlook, adding that it identified several domestic and external challenges that are “on the horizon.”

These include climate change and extreme natural disasters such as El Niño that would “continue to pose risks to food security and the stability of food prices,” he said.

“Additionally, risks related to inflation, such as potential adjustments in transport fares, wages, and service utility fees higher than expected, could dampen household consumption,” he said.

Balisacan also cited that global economic slowdown may weaken external demand, while increasing geopolitical and trade tensions could disrupt supply chains.

He added that general elections in major economies could lead to political shifts that may disrupt trade and investment.

“Despite the anticipated risks, we remain optimistic about the country’s sustained growth momentum as we strive for better development outcomes. We aspire to position the Philippines as a frontrunner within our region and beyond—a beacon of inclusive progress and resilience,” Balisacan said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will end up growing at a lower-than-expected pace?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Moody’s Ratings sees the Philippines becoming the 2nd fastest growing Southeast Asian economy this year and in 2025

April 15, 2024April 3, 2024carlocarrasco

For this year and 2025, Moody’s Ratings projects the Philippines will end up as the 2^nd fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES is projected to be the second-fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia this year and in 2025 as domestic demand is expected to remain resilient, according to Moody’s Ratings.

“We have kept unchanged our 2024 and 2025 forecasts for the Philippines and Malaysia and also expect sequentially higher growth in both countries. Domestic demand remains the primary economic growth engine for the Philippines,” it said in a report.

Moody’s Ratings kept its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Philippines at 5.9% this year and 6% in 2025.

However, these projections fall short of the government’s growth targets of 6.5-7.5% for this year and 6.5-8% for next year.

At 5.9%, the Philippines has the second-fastest projected growth in Southeast Asia for 2024, after Vietnam (6%). It is ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.5%) and Thailand (2.8%).

For 2025, the Philippines is again expected to post the second-fastest growth behind Vietnam (6.5%) but ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.8%), and Thailand (3%).

Moody’s Ratings said that growth in domestic demand-driven countries like the Philippines is “increasing more than we previously expected.”

The economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 5.6% in 2023, slower than the 7.6% expansion in 2022 and short of the 6-7% government goal.

Household consumption typically accounts for three-fourths of the Philippine economy. Last year, household spending expanded by 5.6%, much slower than 8.3% in 2022.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Ratings sees inflation averaging 3.8% this year, higher than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 3.6% full-year forecast but within the 2-4% target.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that strong household consumption alone can help the Philippine economy grow stronger than what Moody’s Ratings projected for 2024 and 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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World Bank sees stronger Philippine economic growth in 2025

April 11, 2024April 2, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the World Bank (WB) revealed its forecast of stronger economic growth for the Philippines in the year 2025 although still below the projections of the government, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE WORLD BANK (WB) maintained its economic growth forecast for the Philippines this year but raised its 2025 growth projection, amid expectations of higher consumer spending and foreign investments.

In its latest East Asia and Pacific (EAP) Economic Update, the World Bank said it expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.8% this year, the fastest in Southeast Asia along with Cambodia.

The Philippines and Cambodia are seen to expand faster than Vietnam (5.5%), Indonesia (4.9%), Malaysia (4.3%), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (4.0%), Timor-Leste (3.6%), Thailand (2.8%) and Myanmar (1.3%).

For 2025, the World Bank raised its GDP forecast for the Philippines to 5.9% from 5.8%.

However, the World Bank’s growth forecasts for the Philippines are lower than the government’s target of 6.5-7.5% for 2024 and 6.5-8% for 2025 to 2028.

“What has sustained growth in the Philippines, like much of the region, has been consumption and the recovery in services,” WB East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Aaditya Mattoo said at a virtual briefing on Monday.

He noted foreign investment flows into the Philippines might increase after the government implemented significant reforms such as Republic Act No. 11659 or the Public Service Act, which allows full foreign ownership in key sectors such as telecommunications and airlines.

“(The reforms) should begin to pay off in terms of greater foreign investment, which though in the short run… the flows have been less strong than we would have expected,” Mr. Mattoo said.

Climate and geopolitical shocks, as well as elevated inflation and high interest rates are risks to the growth outlook.

“If there is a resurgence in inflation, for example in the United States, which might well see interest rates even higher for longer, that would certainly affect growth throughout the region as we have estimated,” he said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippine economy can grow stronger than the forecast of the World Bank for 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine exports of goods and services surpassed $100 billion in 2023

April 11, 2024April 2, 2024carlocarrasco

For the year 2023, Philippine exports of good and services reached over $100 billion based on the balance of payments (BOP) from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA). By comparison, less than $100 billion was achieved in 2022.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Despite global trade challenges, Philippine exports surpassed the USD100-billion mark in 2023, an all-time high revenue for the country’s outbound trade.

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said in a statement Monday that based on the balance of payments (BOP) from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), exports of goods and services reached USD103.6 billion. This is higher by 4.8 percent from the total exports of USD98.8 billion in 2022.

DTI Secretary Alfredo Pascual said this is the first time the Philippines breached the USD100-billion mark in export revenues.

Pascual said the strong exports last year was driven by services, especially the information technology and business process management (ITBPM) and tourism services.

Services exports rose 17.4 percent in 2023 to USD48.29 billion from USD41.12 billion in 2022.

According to the Information Technology and Business Process Association of the Philippines, ITBPM revenues last year stood at USD35.5 billion, while government data showed that travel services reached USD9.1 billion last year.

On the other hand, exports of goods last year declined by 4.1 percent to USD55.32 billion from USD57.71 billion in 2022.

The country’s top goods export alone, electronics, decreased by 3.4 percent or USD955 million in 2023 compared to its previous year.

“This decline highlights the importance of diversifying export portfolios and enhancing competitiveness in key sectors,” the DTI said.

“The path to global excellence and export growth requires shared ambition, where the government and the private sector must intensify and sustain collaborations. Our guideline is the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) 2023-2028, which aims to address constraints to production, diversify and improve access to markets, and develop a strong and innovative export ecosystem,” Pascual said.

However, export revenues last year were USD23.2 billion away from the PEDP target of USD126.8 billion for 2023.

“We recognize the ongoing challenges in both the domestic and global trading environments and hope to address the binding constraints to Philippine export competitiveness as we continue to implement the PEDP for 2023 to 2028,” the DTI chief added.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines can achieve at least $100 billion worth of export revenue this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Fitch sees Philippine economy outpacing Southeast Asian economies this year with 6.4% growth

March 25, 2024March 15, 2024carlocarrasco

Financial firm Fitch Ratings expects the economy of the Philippines to grow the fastest among Southeast Asian economies this year with a growth rate of 6.4%, according to a news article by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES is expected to be the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia this year, according to Fitch Ratings.

Data from Fitch Ratings’ Asia-Pacific Sovereigns Credit Outlook for February showed that the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to expand by 6.4% this year.

This will be the fastest growth in Southeast Asia, ahead of Vietnam (6.3%), Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.2%), Thailand (3.8%) and Singapore (2.3%).

Krisjanis Krustins, Fitch Ratings’ primary sovereign analyst for the Philippines, said Philippine GDP growth would likely remain above 6% in the next few years.

“We forecast real GDP growth of above 6% over the medium term, considerably stronger than the ‘BBB’ median of 3%, supported by large investments in infrastructure and reforms to foster trade and investment, including through public-private partnerships (PPPs),” he said in an earlier commentary.

Fitch Ratings’ forecast is slightly below the government’s 6.5-7.5% target this year.

The Philippine economy grew by 5.6% in 2023, slower than 7.6% in 2022 and fell short of the government’s 6-7% full-year target.

Economic managers have said they might revise growth assumptions and targets to be more “realistic” and account for global economic conditions.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is set to release first-quarter GDP data on May 9.

For 2025, Fitch expects Philippine economic output to expand by 6.5%. This also makes it the fastest-growing economy in the region next year, alongside Vietnam. It will be ahead of Indonesia (5.2%), Malaysia (4.5%), Thailand (3.4%) and Singapore (3%).

In November, Fitch Ratings affirmed the Philippines’ “BBB” investment grade rating and kept its “stable” outlook.

A “BBB” rating indicates low default risk and reflects the economy’s adequate capacity to pay debt. A “stable” outlook on the rating also means it is likely to be maintained over the next 18-24 months.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction about this recent development? Do you think Fitch’s predictions for the Philippine economy will turn out true by the end of 2024?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines secures at least $4 billion worth of investments from Germany

March 22, 2024March 13, 2024carlocarrasco

The Philippines has been on a roll lately when it comes to attracting investors and sealing agreements. Following the success of attracting investment from Australia, the Philippines secured from Germany investments worth at least $4 billion (over P220 billion) as President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos and his team went there recently, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). The said amount is more than double than what the nation secured from Australia.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines has secured at least USD4 billion (PHP222 billion) worth of investments in various sectors during President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s working visit in Germany.

“We have secured business deals worth USD4 billion in Germany, the EU’s economic powerhouse!” he said in a Facebook post Wednesday morning.

“Last year’s significant investments from Germany underscore their confidence in us as a key partner in the Asia-Pacific. We eagerly welcome further collaborations in climate action and energy transition.”

On Tuesday night (Manila time), Marcos became the first Philippine president to address German business leaders in 10 years, coinciding with the 70th anniversary of Philippine-Germany diplomatic relations.

The Philippines and Germany established their diplomatic relations on Oct. 8, 1954.

Marcos also witnessed during the business forum the presentation and exchange of various memoranda of agreement or understanding and letters of intent with different German businesses.

Marcos, in his speech, said Germany is one of the countries that the Philippines is looking forward to further fostering strong business partnerships and collaboration, being one of the biggest economies in the European Union.

He said Germany has the biggest economy both in Gross Domestic Product and population, and a global force in technology and innovation.

“Last year was a testament to the continuing confidence of Germany in the Philippines as a partner in the Asia-Pacific and the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region by leading among the countries in terms of investments,” Marcos said.

The President also touted the policy reforms and key legislations made by his government to make the Philippines a reliable partner for foreign investors.

In 2022, Germany was the Philippines’ 12th largest trading partner, 10th export market, and 15th import supplier.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction about this recent development? Do you think that the confirmed investments from Germany will translate into new jobs and new opportunities for social and economic prosperity?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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