In the middle of mixed reactions towards the United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine exports, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be cut by 0.4%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Recently, US President Donald Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., met in the White House which resulted in the new tariff.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
THE United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine goods could cut the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.4 percentage point (ppt), Nomura Global Markets Research said.
In a report, Nomura said the US tariff of 19% on Philippine goods is “fairly high” and poses downside risks to growth.
“We estimate the direct effects could reduce our baseline GDP growth forecasts by a still-substantial 0.4 ppt in the Philippines.”
Nomura said this projection is “relatively substantial” compared to its baseline growth forecasts of 5.3% and 5.6% for this year and 2026, respectively.
“This is partly because we assigned 10% as the level where the reciprocal tariff rate could settle, on the assumption that the Philippines is a strong ally of the US and is not a third country for transshipments,” Nomura said.
“As it turns out, despite the visit to Washington by President Marcos and both sides reiterating the need for a strong partnership, the tariff was still set at 19%, which is even higher than the ‘Liberation Day’ level of 17%.”
Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. met with US President Donald J. Trump at the White House in Washington, DC. Mr. Trump announced a 19% tariff would be imposed on Philippine goods, which will take effect starting Aug. 1.
“The trade ‘deals’ therefore represent upside surprises in terms of tariff rates, especially for the Philippines,” Nomura said.
“As a result, if implemented and these tariff rates are sustained, these will likely further weigh on growth in both countries relative to our current baseline forecasts.”
The government expects GDP to grow by 5.5-6.5% this year, lower than its previous target of 6-8%.
“While these ballpark estimates make sense to us, uncertainty remains high and these are ‘only’ taking into account the direct effects on these ASEAN countries’ exports to the US,” Nomura said.
These estimates do not account for sectoral tariffs, such as in semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are currently exempted, it added.
“But as our US team highlights, the risk is these could be set higher, though some countries could be exempted, adding to the uncertainty. As mentioned above, the details of the trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines are still limited.”
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines is in a serious disadvantage with the American tariff of 19% imposed on the nation’s exports? Do you think the Philippine economy still has strong momentum to reach 6% GDP growth by the end of this year?
Welcome back fellow geeks, Blu-ray collectors and movie buffs!
When it comes to watching movies – both old and new – the best place for me is still the movie theater. The very large screen, high-tech sound systems and comfortable seats of the cinema all make the theater viewing experience very immersive which streaming apps and the home theater setup could never match. The cinema experience is always better than streaming.
That being said, it is disappointing for me – as a resident of Muntinlupa City here in the Philippines – that local theaters in Alabang had to close down. The original cinemas of Festival Mall, which first opened in 1998 and grew from six to ten screens, are no more. Before they were all closed down, those cinemas had deteriorated over time and I still remember how bad the projection in one of their premium cinemas was when I saw Star Trek Into Darkness in 2013. It was like I was watching a VHS copy of the movie on their screen. It was that bad!
This year, the 4-screen cinemas of Commercenter in Filinvest City had closed down (refer to my past blog posts by clicking here and here) and it is very unfortunate not just for me but also for others who enjoyed watching movies at that mall. In my experience, Commercenter was my favorite local place to watch movies at and the cinema operators were consistent with maintaining each screen, the comfortable chairs and the sound systems. At the same time, it was pretty convenient for me to park the car in the basement parking (really spacious), climb up to the cinemas at the 2nd floor (ticket counter and snacks counter were beside each other), enjoy a movie, and visit a local store or a restaurant within the mall after leaving the cinema.
With the closure of Festival Mall’s original cinemas and Commercenter cinemas, that is a combined loss of ten screens along with the many seats and equipment combined. Along the way, many people who worked directly in those lost cinemas either became unemployed or got re-assigned to a new task within the local establishment. Sadly, not too many people here in the Philippines are talking about the jobs lost with the closure of cinemas.
Cinemas of Commercenter have been closed down since March 15, 2025.
This brings me to my next point – BusinessWorld published an article exploring the current struggle of Philippine cinemas in what is now the post-pandemic era. For the newcomers reading this, the Philippines economy has been growing strongly year-by-year after the COVID-19 period ended but the nation’s cinema industry is still struggling in terms of sales and attracting paying customers. The Filipinos’ love for streaming is huge factor but there are also other reasons why not enough moviegoers are supporting cinemas.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld article. Some parts in boldface…
KAREN LUSTAÑAS, 30, tries to watch a movie in the Philippine capital at least once a month, if the budget allows it.
“I try to save time and money for films that I really want to see,” she told BusinessWorld in a Facebook Messenger chat. “I can barely afford it, but if I’m a fan of the director or actors, I really have to watch it.”
“Otherwise, I’ll just watch it on a streaming platform,” she added.
As good as the movie industry is in imagining alternate realities, it didn’t see this one coming. Five years after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) decimated the box office here and all over the world, movies are still struggling to come back.
Philippine gross movie ticket sales fell 3.7% year on year to $45.5 million (P2.5 billion) last year, a far cry from the $144.5 million posted in 2019, before the pandemic hit, according to US-based box office revenue tracker Box Office Mojo. In 2020, gross sales plunged 95% to $7.7 million.
Global cinema ticket sales fell 8.8% last year to €28 billion (P1.8 trillion) from 2023, the first annual drop since COVID-19, the European Audiovisual Observatory (EAO) said last month.
Regular movie ticket prices cost P300 to P400 in Metro Manila, or about half the daily minimum wage. On the other hand, the basic monthly subscription to streaming platforms like Netflix, Max (HBO) and Disney+ costs P150 to P250, and the titles are virtually endless.
“If you think about it, it’s really worth it and more practical to go with Netflix,” Ms. Lustañas, a freelancer, said.
The annual Metro Manila Film Festival (MMFF) grossed P800 million last year, hitting the target but failing to top 2023’s record P1 billion despite a week-long extension.
The pandemic forced people to watch movies at home, aiding streaming services like Netflix, whose revenue grew 14% annually to more than $39 billion last year from 2019, according to computations by BusinessWorld using data from the company’s website. Netflix subscribers also doubled to about 300 million over the five-year period.
Since 2020, local box office hits have been few and far between. The latest was Star Cinema’s My Love Will Make You Disappear starring Kim Chiu and Paulo Avelino, grossing P12 million on its opening day in March.
“Today, going to the cinema is a more intentional experience, rooted not just in the movie being shown but in the overall ambiance that brings the film to life,” Hamm E. Katipunan, Ayala Malls’ Asset Management head, said in an e-mailed reply to questions.
“It’s not just about waiting for blockbusters to hit streaming sites; Filipinos appreciate the good feeling of watching movies that are truly worth experiencing on the big screen,” he added.
While cinemas run by Ayala Malls, SM Supermalls and other mall chains have diversified their offerings, a pattern has emerged in the top-grossing Filipino films that have drawn people to cinemas.
GMA Pictures and Star Cinema’s co-production Hello, Love, Again starring Alden Richards and Kathryn Bernardo set the record for the highest opening day gross for a local film with P85 million in November, surpassing the P75-million gross from The Super Parental Guardians in 2016.
‘FORMULAIC STORIES’ – It shows that Filipinos watch a movie mainly because of its main cast, Film Development Council of the Philippines (FDCP) Chairman Jose Javier Reyes told a news briefing in March, citing a council-funded study involving 800 respondents.
“They can’t afford to go regularly to the movies anymore,” he said. “The biggest blow is that people don’t repeat screenings. They just wait for it to go on streaming platforms.”
The study, done in 2024 in collaboration with De La Salle University to explore the evolving habits, preferences and challenges shaping the local film industry, found that Filipinos from the A, B, and a small part of the C socioeconomic classes regularly watch movies.
The study, which will be released in July as part of the launch of FDCP’s Philippine Film Industry Roadmap, also found that streaming services have become the primary platform for 67% of Filipinos.
Only 21% still frequent cinemas, with many complaining about repetitive movie themes and high ticket prices.
Though stars are still the main movie drawer, the study also found that Filipinos are “sick of formulaic stories,” Mr. Reyes said. He added that the roadmap, mandated by the government, would shed light on how to better support the industry.
In October last year, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. placed the Film Academy of the Philippines under the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) to boost Filipino film development.
Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque earlier said the budget for the film industry would increase next year as part of the roadmap. She noted that other countries have been using movies and the creative industry to boost tourism and trade.
Mr. Reyes said movie outfits should improve the quality of their films to boost their success overseas. “In the Philippines, star power is important, but the moment you cross borders, there’s a market for people who are more interested in the material itself,” he pointed out.
Rico V. Gonzales, head of distribution at Warner Bros. Pictures Philippines, said the company supports the local industry by distributing two to three Filipino movies yearly, along with the usual foreign releases from Warner Bros. and Universal Pictures.
“It’s part of the goodwill of the company to help local producers who don’t have a distribution arm, compared with the likes of Star Cinema and GMA Pictures, which have the power to do it themselves,” he said.
The current state of the cinema industry of the Philippines is disappointing and the future looks uncertain as of this writing. While a lot of my fellow Filipinos chose streaming to watch movies in the comfort of their home, I prefer watching movies on Blu-ray and 4K Blu-ray disc format. The most phenomenal 4K Blu-ray experiences I had was Top Gun: Maverick and that movie never failed to amaze me each time I saw it using my 4K Blu-ray disc player. I also enjoyed watching my 4K Blu-ray copies of Casablanca, Interstellar, Total Recall (1990), and Star Trek: First Contact.
Going back to the state of cinema here in the Philippines, I did not watch a single movie in the cinema in 2024. In fact, the last time I saw a movie on the big screen locally was Sound of Freedom in 2023 (read my review by clicking here). This is because the new movies that were released in 2024 did not interest me at all and the fact that a lot of new Hollywood movies had woke garbage in them turned me off. Not only that, there were times when news movies from overseas were not even released in Philippine cinemas at all such as Jesus Revolution (note: I had to buy the movie on Blu-ray just to watch it).
I saw The Batman at Commercenter’s cinema on March 2022.
As of this writing, the direction of the entire cinema industry of the Philippines remains uncertain and so far there were no real breakthroughs that happened. That being said, I still remember when in 2015, there were long lines of moviegoers at Commercenter waiting to enter the cinemas to watch Jurassic World. Such a memory won’t be repeated here in Alabang and without its cinemas, Commercenter’s value as a place for fun has gone way down.
Even though there are emerging rivals that each have distinctive attractions for businesses and residents, the Filinvest group remains confident and optimistic with its 244-hectare Filinvest City in Alabang, Muntinlupa, according to a business article by BusinessWorld. This is about the current state of corporate cities or central business districts (CBDs) which are contributing a lot to the economy of the Philippines in terms of financial value, jobs, properties and new residential communities.
For the newcomers reading this, Filinvest City is located within the Alabang area of Muntinlupa City, and it is connected with both the South Luzon Expressway (SLEX) and the Metro Manila Skyway (which itself is connected to the NAIA Expressway and the North Luzon Expressway) which makes travel connectivity convenient.
To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the business article of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
THE FILINVEST group is banking on unsold inventory and infrastructure readiness at its 244-hectare Filinvest City in Alabang, Muntinlupa to support growth in its township portfolio, as new large-scale developments emerge in Metro Manila and nearby provinces.
Catherine A. Ilagan, president and chief executive officer of Filinvest Alabang, Inc. (FAI), said Filinvest City continues to attract interest from businesses and residents, even as estates such as the 3,500-hectare Villar City, the 700-hectare Vermosa in Cavite, and the 74-hectare Arca South in Taguig expand their footprints.
“We’re the most developed. We have the essentials to back it up. We have the infrastructure and all of the utilities. All of that are already in place. Accessibility is also key. We also have access to talent,” Ms. Ilagan said in an interview with BusinessWorld.
“It takes a long time to develop into a real central business district (CBD),” she added.
FAI is the real estate arm of the Filinvest group, overseeing townships and high-end residential developments.
“In terms of densifying, there’s still a lot of potential for Filinvest City. The outlook for Filinvest City is really positive,” Ms. Ilagan said.
“The release of inventory is very deliberate,” she added.
According to a regulatory filing by the Filinvest group’s listed conglomerate, Filinvest Development Corp. (FDC), FAI beneficially owns 76.4 hectares of unsold lots in Filinvest City as of end-2024, indicating further growth capacity.
Launched in 1995, Filinvest City is a mixed-use township that integrates a CBD, residential communities, leisure destinations, educational institutions, and medical and wellness centers.
It is the country’s only CBD to hold both Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) and Building for Ecologically Responsive Design Excellence (BERDE) certifications.
“The LEED and BERDE certifications are testaments to Filinvest City being a green development,” Ms. Ilagan said.
Filinvest City’s sustainability features include a district cooling system that reduces energy use and emissions by servicing multiple buildings, an integrated electric-powered transport system known as the 360 Eco-Loop, and dedicated green spaces and sustainable buildings in Northgate Cyberzone.
Under Ms. Ilagan’s leadership, FAI is replicating the Filinvest City model in other areas as it grows its portfolio of master-planned, sustainable townships and premium real estate developments under the Filigree brand.
Ms. Ilagan brings more than 30 years of experience in real estate and urban development.
“Filinvest City is a ten-minute city. Everything can be reached in ten minutes. This is the DNA that we want to replicate in the other townships,” Ms. Ilagan said.
“We’ve always subscribed to the idea of a balanced live-work-play. That’s the DNA of all of our townships, a well-rounded and balanced development,” she added.
Other FAI-led townships include the 58-hectare City di Mare in Cebu, the 201-hectare Filinvest Mimosa Plus in Clark, Pampanga, the 288-hectare Filinvest New Clark City in Tarlac, and the 677-hectare Timberland Heights in Rizal.
“Whether it’s a small development, a bigger development, a high development, or a denser development, there should always be that balance of live-work-play components. As a real estate developer, that is the sustainable way to do things. Now, we want everything to be walkable,” Ms. Ilagan said.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think that Villar City, Arca South and Vermosa don’t have when compared with Filinvest City? If you are developing properties, do you find Filinvest City advantageous and attractive for your business needs?
For more South Metro Manila community news and developments, come back here soon. Also say NO to fake news, NO to irresponsible journalism, NO to misinformation, NO to plagiarists, NO to reckless publishers and NO to sinister propaganda when it comes to news and developments. For South Metro Manila community developments, member engagements, commerce and other relevant updates, join the growing South Metro Manila Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/342183059992673
The tourism of the industry of the Philippines accounted for a share of 8.9% of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the year 2024, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
THE SHARE of the tourism industry in the Philippine economy rose to a five-year high of 8.9% in 2024, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Thursday.
Tourism direct gross value added (TDGVA) — an indicator of the economic contribution from tourism-related activities — jumped by 11.2% year on year to P2.35 trillion last year, preliminary data from the PSA showed.
However, TDGVA growth was slower than the 49.9% surge logged in 2023 and the slowest annual growth since the 10.3% expansion in 2020.
Despite the slower growth, the share of TDGVA to the economy rose to 8.9% in 2024, the highest share since the 12.9% recorded in 2019.
By industry, country-specific tourism characteristics goods – shopping accounted for 21.8% of the total with P512.68 billion. It was followed by miscellaneous services (20.2% share or P476.23 billion) and accommodation services for visitors (18.4% share or P432.9 billion).
Domestic tourism expenditure, which includes resident visitors’ spending within the country on a domestic trip or as part of an international trip, grew by 16.4% to P3.16 trillion last year.
Outbound tourism spending reached P345.68 billion in 2024, rising by 37.5% from P251.35 billion in 2023.
Inbound tourism expenditure, meanwhile, inched up by 0.4% annually to P699.99 billion. Total employment in the tourism sector grew by 6.1% to 6.75 million in 2024. Tourism accounted for 13.8% of the total jobs in the country in 2024.
The majority of the tourism-related jobs were centered on miscellaneous activities. The health and wellness sector employed 1.83 million, accounting for a 27.1% share.
The accommodation and food and beverage sector had 1.69 million workers (25% share), while passenger transport had 1.67 million workers (24.7%).
Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomiya Advisory and Research, Inc. said easing inflation helped boost tourism spending last year.
“Lower inflation relative to 2023 and better economic conditions in the country may have encouraged tourists due to better prices,” he said in an e-mail. Inflation averaged 3.2% in 2024, cooling from the 15-year high of 6% in 2023.
Last year, the Department of Tourism recorded 5.95 million visitor arrivals, falling short of its 7.7 million target.
“While Philippine tourism has made substantial progress — particularly in revenue generation — it hasn’t achieved full recovery in terms of visitor numbers, and the pace of recovery appears to be slowing in early 2025,” Leonardo A. Lanzona, Jr., an economics professor in Ateneo de Manila University, said in an e-mail.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Philippine tourism will end up being weaker as an economic sector this year? Do you think the weakening Philippine Peso will convince foreigners to visit the Philippines very soon?
In what could be a possible sign of economic slowdown in the Philippines, manufacturing activity for the month of May this year slowed down as demand from foreign markets weakened, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
GROWTH in Philippine manufacturing activity slowed in May due to declining output and weaker demand from foreign markets amid global trade tensions.
The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures the country’s monthly factory performance, settled at 50.1, slipping from 53 in April. This was the lowest index since the 49.4 contraction in March.
A PMI reading above 50 denotes better operating conditions month on month, while a reading below 50 shows the opposite.
“The promising growth observed at the beginning of the second quarter signaled a notable cooling in May,” Maryam Baluch, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a report on Monday. “While new orders continued to increase, they did so at a slower pace, overshadowed by contractions in other areas.”
S&P Global data on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) showed that only the Philippines expanded in May, while Vietnam (49.8), Myanmar (47.6) and Indonesia (47.4) all declined.
In its report, S&P Global said output declined in May, the second contraction in the past three months.
“Overall, the downturn was marginal, but companies noted softer demand conditions weighed on production,” it said.
Despite continuing to signal a rise in new sales, the rate of expansion in new orders was slight and weaker than in April, it added. This was reflected in the softer rate of increase in input buying activity.
“The situation was further exacerbated by a deteriorating demand from foreign markets, with May witnessing a sharper drop in new export orders,” Ms. Baluch said. “As global trade tensions escalate, the outlook for overseas demand appears increasingly precarious,” US President Donald J. Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs in April for 90 days but continues to apply a 10% baseline tariff rate for most trading partners.
Ms. Baluch said the drop in production requirements was accompanied by a fresh decline in employment and the inventories of both purchases and finished goods.
S&P said employment numbers declined for the first time in four months.
The pace of job shedding was marginal, but the strongest in 11 months, which factories attributed to voluntary resignations and the nonreplacement of those roles.
S&P also cited the limited manpower for a renewed buildup of backlogs across Filipino producers.
“On a brighter note, inflationary pressures remain modest and historically subdued, which could play an important role in supporting demand moving forward,” she said.
However, cost burdens and output charges rose to the highest since January.
“The stability of price pressures may also provide a necessary buffer against the challenges posed by a cooldown in new orders and external market uncertainties,” she added.
S&P Global said manufacturers expect new orders to continue to rise, supported by confidence in the year-ahead outlook for production, but the degree of optimism was the third weakest in the series’ history.
Analysts also said trade tensions and softer demand weighing down the country’s manufacturing activity in May.
The anticipation for higher tariffs likely caused subdued exports, said Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc.
“The persistent trade tensions continue to weigh on global trade, causing exports to drop as higher tariffs may be imposed,” he said in a Viber message.
Philippine exports in the first four months rose 9.5% to $26.87 billion, according to the local statistics agency.
Mr. Erece said domestic demand slowed as the election-spending season ended. Stronger manufacturing activity is expected later this year, as local authorities continue trade talks with the US Trade Representative, he added.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines’ manufacturing sector will rebound this month?
As far as the Nomura Global Markets Research is concerned, the economic growth of the Philippines will for 2025 and 2026 will end up weaker than previously expected, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
NOMURA GLOBAL Markets Research has trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and 2026 following the weak first-quarter expansion.
Nomura cut its Philippine economic growth forecast to 5.3% for this year from 5.9% previously, it said in a report dated May 9. It also slashed its 2026 projection to 5.6% from 6.1%.
Both projections are well below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s 6-8% growth target for 2025 until 2028.
“Our 2025-26 GDP forecast revisions take into account the disappointing first-quarter outturn, which only rose slightly to 5.4% year on year from 5.3% in fourth quarter 2024, despite election-related spending,” Nomura analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said in the report.
“Escalating global trade and geopolitical tensions are the main downside risks to growth. A faster rollout of infrastructure projects and lower oil prices are upside risks.”
The Philippine economy expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter, the government reported last week. This was a tad faster than the revised 5.3% in the previous quarter but sharply slower from the 5.9% growth in the same period in 2024.
Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Group Rosemarie G. Edillon said that GDP would need to grow by 6.2% for the rest of the year to reach the lower end of the 6-8% goal.
Based on its forecasts, Nomura expects the Philippines to post below-6% GDP growth for the rest of the year. Broken down, it sees GDP growth of 5.3% in the second quarter, 5.4% in the third quarter, and just 5% in the fourth quarter.
In 2024, the economy expanded by 6.5% in the second quarter, 5.2% in the third quarter, and 5.3% in the fourth quarter.
“A key source of the downside surprise [in the first quarter] was investment spending growth, which we believe suggests businesses have already turned cautious amid surging global trade uncertainty, even in a less open economy,” Nomura said.
“We expect a moderate pickup in real GDP growth in 2026, led by the government’s strong push for more progress on infrastructure projects.”
It added that it expects the country to post a current account deficit of 4.1% of GDP this year and 4.4% of GDP next year, wider than the 3.8% ratio in 2024, driven by an increase in capital goods imports amid the government’s infrastructure push and weaker exports due to the US’ tariffs.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can still grow stronger than what Nomura predicts in 2025 and 2026? Do you think the national government should make new economic moves to stimulate the national economy while also attracting new foreign investors?
By pointing to the trade policies of the United States and weak private spending, ANZ Research says that the economic growth of the Philippines for 2025 could slow down to 5%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. ANZ also downgraded its growth forecasts for many other Asian economies.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
PHILIPPINE economic growth is expected to slow to 5% this year due to the fallout from the Trump administration’s trade policy and weak private spending, ANZ Research said.
In its latest Asia Insight report, ANZ cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the Philippines to 5% this year from 5.7% previously. It also lowered its 2026 GDP projection to 5.5% from 6% previously.
Both forecasts would fall short of the 6-8% growth target set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee from this year to the next.
“Our new forecasts incorporate our expectations of direct and indirect impact of tariffs, bilateral trade agreements between the US and individual economies, revised growth estimates for mainland China and the US and potential policy response,” ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur said.
The downward revisions constitute a “durable shock to regional growth as US tariffs imply a long-term reduction in global trade,” he added.
President Donald J. Trump slapped reciprocal tariffs on most of its trading partners earlier this month but suspended these higher tariffs for 90 days. Only the baseline 10% tariff remains in effect.
The Philippines was hit with a 17% reciprocal tariff, though this was the second lowest in Southeast Asia, just after Singapore.
“It is likely that some Asian economies will negotiate down or even do away with the April 2 reciprocal tariffs owing to the potential damage to US growth,” Mr. Mathur said. “Even so, the uncertainty around US trade policies will constrain business activity, including hiring and investment.”
ANZ slashed its growth projection for Asia, excluding China and India, to 2.9% this year from 3.4% previously. It also trimmed its 2026 forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% previously.
ANZ also downgraded its GDP projections for all countries it covers, namely India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Vietnam.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines will be able to negotiate with the United States on tariff and trade matters soon?
By pointing to the VAT refund for foreign tourists (click here and here), the Department of Tourism (DOT) is looking forward to growth in tourism revenue this year, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the report of the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
THE Department of Tourism (DoT) said tourism revenue is expected to rise this year, aided by the new tax refund for tourists.
“2024 was a banner year for Philippine tourism, with international spending reaching around P760 billion, a 126% recovery rate (from pre-pandemic levels). Our goal was always to exceed that, which we achieved the previous year,” Tourism Secretary Ma. Esperanza Christina G. Frasco said on Monday.
She said that the value-added tax (VAT) refund for foreign tourists and DoT’s collaboration with the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) will encourage more visitor spending.
She added such measures will allow the country “to exceed its international visitor receipts as well as domestic tourism receipts from the year before.”
On Monday, the DTI and DoT signed a memorandum of agreement (MoA) to strengthen coordination in promoting tourism-related industries, participate in joint trade and tourism missions, develop sustainable tourism-related enterprises, and encourage the growth of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
“Through this MoA, we will give our tourism MSMEs the platform to avail of the programs of the DTI, especially in supporting the expansion of their livelihood and businesses,” Ms. Frasco said.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the VAT refund for tourists will actually result in an increase of tourism revenue in the Philippines this year?
Festival Mall – the popular shopping mall in Filinvest City in Alabang – is now fully owned by Filinvest REIT Corp. (FILRT) as the deed of exchange with Filinvest Land, Inc. (FLI) has been formally signed recently, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Previously it was reported that the value of the transfer of ownership was worth over P6 billion.
To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
FILINVEST REIT CORP. (FILRT) has executed a deed of exchange with its parent company and sponsor, Filinvest Land, Inc. (FLI), for the transfer of ownership of Festival Mall in Alabang, Muntinlupa City.
The two companies executed the memorandum of agreement and the deed of exchange on March 5 as part of a P6.26-billion property-for-share swap transaction, FILRT said in a regulatory filing on Thursday.
Under the transaction, FILRT will issue 1.63 billion shares at P3.85 each to FLI in exchange for the ownership of the 121,862-square-meter (sq.m.) main mall of Festival Mall. The addition of Festival Mall will increase FILRT’s total gross leasable area by 37% to 452,310 sq.m.
The deal expands FILRT’s portfolio into the retail mall segment. Previously, its portfolio consisted of 17 office buildings and 2.9 hectares of land leased to the owner and operator of Crimson Resort & Spa Boracay.
Following the addition of Festival Mall, FILRT’s portfolio mix will comprise 67% offices, 6% hospitality, and 27% retail.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you hope to see improvements or expansion projects at Festival Mall now that it has a new owner? Do you think FILRT will come up with new office buildings in close proximity to Festival Mall within the next ten years?
For more South Metro Manila community news and developments, come back here soon. Also say NO to fake news, NO to irresponsible journalism, NO to misinformation, NO to plagiarists, NO to reckless publishers and NO to sinister propaganda when it comes to news and developments. For South Metro Manila community developments, member engagements, commerce and other relevant updates, join the growing South Metro Manila Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/342183059992673
In its monetary report recently released, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) stated that inflation could exceed the 2% to 4% target in the 2nd of half of this year mainly pointing to base effects from easing commodity price pressures, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…
THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) said inflation could overshoot the 2-4% target range in the second half of this year amid base effects.
In its latest Monetary Policy report, the central bank said annual inflation is likely to settle within the 2-4% target band from this year to 2026 amid declining rice prices.
“However, inflation could exceed the target range in the latter part of 2025, primarily due to base effects from easing commodity price pressures in the corresponding period of 2024,” it said.
“Inflation is then projected to move closer to the midpoint of the target range in 2026, supported by an expected moderation in global commodity prices,” it added.
The BSP’s baseline forecasts for inflation are at 3.5% for 2025 to 2026. Accounting for risks, inflation could reach 3.7% in 2026.
In February, the consumer price index (CPI) sharply slowed to 2.1%, bringing headline inflation to 2.5% in the first two months.
For this year, inflationary pressures could come from “higher global oil and non-oil prices, peso depreciation, and recent above-expectation inflation readings,” the BSP said.
However, inflation could breach the 2-4% target range if crude oil prices rise, it said.
BSP estimates show that if crude oil prices average above $100 per barrel, inflation could hit 4.1% this year and 4.8% next year.
Based on the latest Development Budget Coordination Committee macroeconomic assumptions, Dubai crude oil is seen to range from $60 to $80 per barrel this year.
However, the BSP reiterated that risks to the inflation outlook have remained “broadly balanced.”
“Upside risks include potential increases in electricity rates, transport charges, and pork prices,” it said.
According to the BSP’s risk matrix, there is a high probability for a rise in pork prices and a low probability for elevated transport and electricity costs.
“Conversely, the main downside risk stems from the spillover effects of lower tariffs on imported rice to domestic rice prices.”
Rice inflation further decreased to 4.9% in February from the 2.3% drop in January. This was the lowest rice inflation print since the 5.7% contraction in April 2020.
Rice prices are seen to decline further after the Agriculture department declared a food security emergency on rice, as well as lowered the maximum suggested retail price of 5% broken imported rice.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the inflation in the Philippines will accelerate in the 2nd half of this year? If you are running a business, how far can you go when it comes to maintaining the current prices of your good and services when inflation kicks in?
Author Carlo Carrasco 