tariff – Page 3 – Author Carlo Carrasco

Department of Finance (DOF) says 6% economic growth is quite difficult to achieve this year

July 31, 2025July 23, 2025carlocarrasco

The uncertainty about this year’s economic growth for the Philippines has gotten stronger as the Department of Finance (DOF) admitted that achieving 6% growth is quite difficult, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The DOF pointed to external shocks that are affecting the national economy.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

While the Philippine economy has already been recovering from its deep recession during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, hitting its growth potential of six percent would be challenging given the global uncertainties spilling over domestically, according to the Department of Finance (DOF).

“We do think that the potential of the Philippines is at the minimum six-percent growth. But of course, it’s quite difficult, especially knowing some of the challenges that we’re seeing,” DOF Undersecretary and Chief Economist Domini Velasquez told reporters during the Philippine thrift banks’ annual convention on Tuesday, July 15.

Just before the initial three-month pause on reciprocal tariffs ended on July 9, United States (US) President Donald Trump had stretched it to Aug. 1, but hiked the rates for Philippine exports to 20 percent from 17 percent previously, repeatedly citing the “significant and persistent trade deficit” that the trade giant has with its former colony.

Velasquez noted that the tariff hike was among the uncertainties that the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) had considered in downscaling its growth target for the year, through 2028.

Last month, the economic team slashed its 2025 GDP growth target to between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent from six- to 6.5-percent previously. Cited as factors were heightened external uncertainties, especially the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the imposition of US tariffs.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto told reporters during an informal press chat on Wednesday, July 16, that he expects the economy to accelerate “significantly” in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter.

“In effect, the target is still six percent for the year,” Recto noted, taking off from the recently revised growth goal. “Realistically, it’s probably around 5.7 percent or 5.8 percent for the year. It depends, because there’s a lot of uncertainty—uncertainty with trade policy.”

“But I think the second quarter will definitely be better than the first,” Recto said, noting that the improvement will be driven by both government and household consumption.

The DBCC had also narrowed the growth target range for 2026 to 2028 to six to seven percent, from the previously more ambitious six to eight percent.

“We did recognize those [tariffs]. When we dialed down on our growth target in 2025, it’s really because of the external factors that we were seeing,” Velasquez said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national economy is not strong enough to achieve 6% GDP growth by the end of this year? What do you think the national government should do to strengthen economic growth and make the Philippines more attractive to foreign investors? Do you think the Philippines still has a chance to convince America to lower its planned tariff on Philippine-made goods?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

America sets 19% tariff on Philippine goods after crucial Trump-Marcos meeting

July 24, 2025July 23, 2025carlocarrasco

Months after initial communications were made (click here and here), Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. finally met with US President Donald Trump in the White House and this ultimately resulted in a 19% tariff on Philippine goods by America, according to two related news articles (click here and here) by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

For the newcomers reading this, America initially announced a 17% tariff on products from the Philippines last April and it was recently revised to 20% which surprised many here in the Philippines. Now that the American tariff for Philippine goods has been settled at 19%, President Marcos called the reduction significant. It should be noted that America generated more than $100 billion in new revenue from tariffs under Trump this year.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the first PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine exports to the United States (US) will now be subject to a 19 percent tariff, down from the 20 percent Washington initially planned to impose, US President Donald Trump announced following what he called a “beautiful visit” by President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. at the White House.

Part of the new deal includes granting zero tariffs for American products bound for the Philippines.

*Philippine President Marcos with US President Trump at the White House. (photo source – the White House)*

“It was a beautiful visit, and we concluded our Trade Deal, whereby The Philippines is going OPEN MARKET with the United States, and ZERO Tariffs. The Philippines will pay a 19% Tariff,” Trump posted on his Truth Social account early Wednesday (Manila time).

*Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt tweet of President Trump’s TRUTH Social post about the meeting with President Marcos and new trade deal.*

He also described Marcos as a “very good and tough negotiator.”

Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the US comprised the highest export value amounting to USD1.115 billion, or 15.3 percent of the country’s total exports in May this year.

Posted below is an excerpt from the other PNA news article related to Marcos’ description of the 1% reduction of tariff by America as well as his clarification about Philippines’ zero tariff approach on certain American products coming to the country. Some parts in boldface…

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. defended the Philippines’ new trade arrangement with the United States (US), saying the reduced 19 percent tariff on Philippine exports—down from the proposed 20 percent—is a “significant achievement,” amid questions over its fairness.

“One percent might seem like a very small concession. However, when you put it in real terms, it is a significant achievement,” Marcos said in a press briefing following his meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday (Manila time).

The President acknowledged that the new deal also opens key Philippine markets to American products—particularly vehicles, agricultural goods, and pharmaceuticals—but said the arrangement will benefit Filipinos through lower prices and stronger bilateral trade.

“We will open that market and no longer charge tariffs on that… para makamura naman ‘yung mga – maging mas mura ‘yung gamot natin (so we can lower the cost of medicines),” he said.

Marcos said while the 19 percent tariff on Philippine goods is still substantial, it reflects a step forward in trade engagement with Washington D.C. and lays the groundwork for future negotiations.

For transparency, posted below is the official video from the White House YouTube channel.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you realize that there is a lot more about US and Philippines relations that go beyond the newly agreed trade agreement? Do you think America’s 19% tariff on exports from the Philippines will add challenged to the Philippine economy? What do you think about the Trump-Marcos meeting? Did you pay attention to the planned Subic Bay ammunition manufacturing plant that was mentioned? If you are based in the Philippines, do you look forward to importing American-made vehicles, agricultural products and pharmaceutical products once they enter the country without any tariffs imposed on them? Do you think the newest exchange between Trump and Marcos will make Communist China concerned or worried?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

America sets 20% tariff on Philippine goods and will take effect on August 1, 2025

July 11, 2025July 10, 2025carlocarrasco

Starting August 1, 2025, the United States of America (USA) will impose a 20% tariff on all and any Philippine-made products coming into their shores as stated in US President Donald Trump’s official letter to President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. In response, the Philippines wants to renegotiate with America while there is still time.

For the newcomers reading this, America previously set a 17% tariff on the Philippines when Trump unveiled last April the many tariff rates on many nations. The Philippines was confident about the negotiations they had with their American counterparts.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine government is looking to renegotiate the 20 percent tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Philippine goods, according to Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez.

In a letter dated July 9 addressed to President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., US President Donald Trump announced that beginning Aug. 1, 2025, the US will raise tariffs on Philippine goods to 20 percent—up from the previously announced 17 percent rate.

In a text message to the Philippine News Agency on Thursday morning, Romualdez said Manila would formally request a review of the tariff hike from Washington D.C.

Trump, in his letter, recognized the Philippine-US trade relations and said the latter has “agreed to continue working with the Philippines, despite having a significant trade deficit.”

“Starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge the Philippines a Tariff of only 20 percent on any and all Philippine products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs,” it read.

Trump said there would be “no tariff if the Philippines, or companies within” the country decide to build or manufacture products within the US.

The US, he added, is also open to “reconsider an adjustment” if the country opens its “closed trading markets to the United States,” and eliminates its “tariff, and non-tariff policies and trade barriers.”

“These tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your country,” he said.

Trump, meanwhile, warned Manila against reciprocating the move with a tariff increase.

“If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 20 percent that we charge,” he said.

For transparency, posted below is the 2-page letter of Trump to Marcos regarding tariffs.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines fell short in its recent negotiations with the United States which resulted in a higher tariff at 20%? Do you think the economic managers of the Philippines can convince America to delay, if not lower, the declared tariff? Do you think a 20% tariff rate by America will hurt the economy of the Philippines this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Philippines Lowers Economic Growth Target Amid Global Uncertainty

July 2, 2025June 27, 2025carlocarrasco

As there are more signs of weakness and uncertainty, the economic managers of the Philippines officially lowered their economic growth target this year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Economic managers on Thursday revised the economic growth target for this year amid mounting global uncertainties.

At a briefing after the 191st Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) meeting, Budget Secretary and DBCC Chair Amenah Pangandaman said the economic growth assumption for 2025 was revised downward to 5.5 to 6.5 percent from the previous 6 to 8 percent.

For 2026 to 2028, the Philippine economy is projected to expand by 6 to 7 percent, reflecting a more cautious and resilient economic outlook amid global headwinds.

“The revisions take into account heightened global uncertainties, such as the unforeseen escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the imposition of U.S. tariffs,” Pangandaman said.

She said that despite these challenges, the DBCC remains “vigilant and ready to deploy timely and targeted measures” to mitigate their potential impact on the Philippine economy.

The budget chief said the country continues to be one of the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN driven by robust domestic demand.

To maintain this momentum, she highlighted the administration’s focus on structural reforms, including the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act and the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Code, both designed to enhance the country’s trade and investment competitiveness.

Pangandaman said the government will also pursue the approval and implementation of other reforms recently ratified by Congress, such as the Liberalizing the Lease of Private Lands by Foreign Investors Act, Enhanced Fiscal Regime for Large-Scale Metallic Mining Act, Accelerated and Reformed Right-of-Way (ARROW) Act, and Konektadong Pinoy Act.

The DBCC also revisited the medium-term macroeconomic assumptions to take into consideration recent global and domestic developments.

The inflation assumption for this year was cut to 2 to 3 percent from the previous 2 to 4 percent. For 2026 to 2028, the inflation assumption was retained at 2 to 4 percent.

For 2025 to 2028, crude oil price assumptions were reduced to USD60 to USD70 per barrel from USD60 to 80 per barrel, despite escalating geopolitical tensions.

The foreign exchange rate is assumed to remain stable, averaging at PHP56 to PHP58 per US dollar from 2025 through 2028, supported by lower domestic inflation.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines is lacking momentum to achieve 6% growth this year? Do you think that inflation and unemployment will eventually rise before the year ends? Are you convinced that foreign investors are staying away from the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Philippines manufacturing activity slowed down in May 2025

June 7, 2025June 3, 2025carlocarrasco

In what could be a possible sign of economic slowdown in the Philippines, manufacturing activity for the month of May this year slowed down as demand from foreign markets weakened, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

GROWTH in Philippine manufacturing activity slowed in May due to declining output and weaker demand from foreign markets amid global trade tensions.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures the country’s monthly factory performance, settled at 50.1, slipping from 53 in April. This was the lowest index since the 49.4 contraction in March.

A PMI reading above 50 denotes better operating conditions month on month, while a reading below 50 shows the opposite.

“The promising growth observed at the beginning of the second quarter signaled a notable cooling in May,” Maryam Baluch, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a report on Monday. “While new orders continued to increase, they did so at a slower pace, overshadowed by contractions in other areas.”

S&P Global data on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) showed that only the Philippines expanded in May, while Vietnam (49.8), Myanmar (47.6) and Indonesia (47.4) all declined.

In its report, S&P Global said output declined in May, the second contraction in the past three months.

“Overall, the downturn was marginal, but companies noted softer demand conditions weighed on production,” it said.

Despite continuing to signal a rise in new sales, the rate of expansion in new orders was slight and weaker than in April, it added. This was reflected in the softer rate of increase in input buying activity.

“The situation was further exacerbated by a deteriorating demand from foreign markets, with May witnessing a sharper drop in new export orders,” Ms. Baluch said. “As global trade tensions escalate, the outlook for overseas demand appears increasingly precarious,” US President Donald J. Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs in April for 90 days but continues to apply a 10% baseline tariff rate for most trading partners.

Ms. Baluch said the drop in production requirements was accompanied by a fresh decline in employment and the inventories of both purchases and finished goods.

S&P said employment numbers declined for the first time in four months.

The pace of job shedding was marginal, but the strongest in 11 months, which factories attributed to voluntary resignations and the nonreplacement of those roles.

S&P also cited the limited manpower for a renewed buildup of backlogs across Filipino producers.

“On a brighter note, inflationary pressures remain modest and historically subdued, which could play an important role in supporting demand moving forward,” she said.

However, cost burdens and output charges rose to the highest since January.

“The stability of price pressures may also provide a necessary buffer against the challenges posed by a cooldown in new orders and external market uncertainties,” she added.

S&P Global said manufacturers expect new orders to continue to rise, supported by confidence in the year-ahead outlook for production, but the degree of optimism was the third weakest in the series’ history.

Analysts also said trade tensions and softer demand weighing down the country’s manufacturing activity in May.

The anticipation for higher tariffs likely caused subdued exports, said Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc.

“The persistent trade tensions continue to weigh on global trade, causing exports to drop as higher tariffs may be imposed,” he said in a Viber message.

Philippine exports in the first four months rose 9.5% to $26.87 billion, according to the local statistics agency.

Mr. Erece said domestic demand slowed as the election-spending season ended. Stronger manufacturing activity is expected later this year, as local authorities continue trade talks with the US Trade Representative, he added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines’ manufacturing sector will rebound this month?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

World Bank says Philippines economic growth will be below 6% per year until 2031

June 3, 2025June 3, 2025carlocarrasco

By pointing to several economic factors, the World Bank stated that it expects the economy of the Philippines to grow less than 6% per year until the year 2031, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines’ annual economic growth is expected by the World Bank Group (WBG) to remain below six percent this year until 2031.

Its newest country partnership framework (CPF) for the Philippines, covering fiscal years (FYs) 2026 to 2031, showed that the WBG forecasts Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.3 percent for this year, 5.4 percent for next year, and 5.5 percent for 2027—all below the more ambitious six- to eight-percent target of the Marcos Jr. administration for the second half of its term.

“The average GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2027 is expected at 5.4 percent. Risks are mostly tilted downside and include potential retaliation by main global players that may affect global growth further, probably hitting domestic growth,” the WBG said, referring to the lingering world trade uncertainty caused by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff spree.

“Increased uncertainty could trigger instability in financial markets and capital flight,” it added.

On the flipside, “the Philippines may benefit from improved margins of preference for key export products, and from lower global commodity prices (tied to lower global growth), and absent any external pressures, the prospect of continued monetary policy rate normalization” in the next three years, the WBG said.

This year, its projected 5.3-percent GDP growth rate—poised to be the slowest pace of expansion since the Philippine economy gradually reopened from the most stringent Covid-19 restrictions—was attributed by the WBG to “the direct impacts of the higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainty on demand for exports, the effects of increased global policy uncertainty on investment demand, and the indirect effects on export and investment demand through lower global growth.”

But on the upside, “these negative effects are dampened as the Philippines is mostly integrated in services rather than merchandise value chains (that have been most affected by trade policy barriers), and as public investment and private investment in non-tradables is expected to remain robust,” the WBG added.

Philippine GDP growth is seen picking up gradually to 5.7 percent in 2028, 5.8 percent both in 2029 and 2030, and 5.9 percent in 2031.

The WBG forecasts headline inflation to be in the range of three to 3.2 percent from 2025 to 2031—within the targeted two- to four-percent annual consumer price increases deemed conducive to economic growth.

As the Marcos Jr. administration embarks on fiscal consolidation to narrow the yawning budget deficit and lower the share of public debt to the economy following massive borrowings at the height of the pandemic, the WBG projected the fiscal deficit narrowing gradually from 5.7 percent of GDP in 2024 to 5.4 percent in 2025, 4.9 percent in 2026, 4.4 percent in 2027, 4.1 percent in 2028, 3.9 percent in 2029, 3.7 percent in 2030, and 3.6 percent in 2031.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines currently does not have enough strength to exceed the crucial 6% mark for annual growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Department of Agriculture (DA) recommends retaining 15% tariff on imported rice

June 3, 2025May 29, 2025carlocarrasco

In an attempt to mitigate the effects of inflation on domestic prices, the Department of Agriculture (DA) recommended keeping the 15% tariff on imported rice, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of GMA. Some parts in boldface…

The Department of Agriculture (DA) has recommended retaining the 15% tariff on imported rice to help mitigate the effects of inflation in local prices.

In a public briefing on Wednesday, DA spokesperson Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said that they aim on lowering the effects of inflation throughout the agricultural industry.

“Napakaimportante yan sa buong ekonomiya ng ating bansa, at masigurado din natin na maging tuloy-tuloy ang mga programa natin na mas mababang presyo ng bilihin di lamang ng bigas kundi iba pang agricultural commodities,” said de Mesa.

(It is very important to the economy of the entire country, and we should ensure that our programs to lower the prices of commodities will continue, not just rice but other agricultural commodities.)

He further said that the majority of every P100 that poor Filipino families spend were used to purchase rice.

“Mga 25% kasi ng bigas na kino-consume natin ay imported. So, kung mapapanatili natin na mababa ang taripa at 15%, mas masisigurado natin na yung pangkalahatang presyo ng bigas ay mas magiging matatag at hindi makakaapekto sa price spikes kung magkakaroon man. Yung inflation overall natin, mapapanatili nating mababa kung mananatiling mababa presyo ng bigas,” he added.

(About 25% of the rice we consume is imported. So, if we keep the tariff low at 15%, we can better ensure that the overall price of rice will remain stable and won’t affect any price spikes. We can keep or overall inflation lower if we keep the price of rice low.)

DA said that they consider the price of rice in international markets, exchange rates, logistics costs from the port of origin, and productivity in the country when considering rice tariffs.

“Napakaimportante lalo na sa panahon ng lean months, ay masigurado natin na yung imported na bigas ay maganda ang presyuhan para di maapektuhan din yung presyo ng local na supply natin. Yung timing is really important to make sure natin na mapapanatili natin na matatag ang presyuhan ng bigas,” he said.

(It is very important, especially in the lean months, that we ensure that the price of important rice will not affect the price of our local supply. The timing is really important to make sure that we keep rice pricing stable.)

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think 15% tariff on imported rice is just right?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

ANZ Research says Philippine economic growth for 2025 could slow down to 5%

May 2, 2025April 28, 2025carlocarrasco

By pointing to the trade policies of the United States and weak private spending, ANZ Research says that the economic growth of the Philippines for 2025 could slow down to 5%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. ANZ also downgraded its growth forecasts for many other Asian economies.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth is expected to slow to 5% this year due to the fallout from the Trump administration’s trade policy and weak private spending, ANZ Research said.

In its latest Asia Insight report, ANZ cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the Philippines to 5% this year from 5.7% previously. It also lowered its 2026 GDP projection to 5.5% from 6% previously.

Both forecasts would fall short of the 6-8% growth target set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee from this year to the next.

“Our new forecasts incorporate our expectations of direct and indirect impact of tariffs, bilateral trade agreements between the US and individual economies, revised growth estimates for mainland China and the US and potential policy response,” ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur said.

The downward revisions constitute a “durable shock to regional growth as US tariffs imply a long-term reduction in global trade,” he added.

President Donald J. Trump slapped reciprocal tariffs on most of its trading partners earlier this month but suspended these higher tariffs for 90 days. Only the baseline 10% tariff remains in effect.

The Philippines was hit with a 17% reciprocal tariff, though this was the second lowest in Southeast Asia, just after Singapore.

“It is likely that some Asian economies will negotiate down or even do away with the April 2 reciprocal tariffs owing to the potential damage to US growth,” Mr. Mathur said. “Even so, the uncertainty around US trade policies will constrain business activity, including hiring and investment.”

ANZ slashed its growth projection for Asia, excluding China and India, to 2.9% this year from 3.4% previously. It also trimmed its 2026 forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% previously.

ANZ also downgraded its GDP projections for all countries it covers, namely India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Vietnam.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines will be able to negotiate with the United States on tariff and trade matters soon?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

UBS Investment Bank Global Research economist sees Philippine economy growing by 5.9% this year

March 5, 2025February 26, 2025carlocarrasco

A senior economist of the UBS Investment Bank Global Research stated that the economy of the Philippines will grow better this year by 5.9%, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. In 2024, the economy grew by 5.6%.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine economic growth is expected to accelerate this year on the back of higher investments and consumption, an economist of UBS Investment Bank Global Research said.

In a virtual briefing on Wednesday, UBS Investment Bank Global Research Senior ASEAN and Asia Economist Grace Lim said the Philippine economy is projected to grow by 5.9 percent this year from 5.6 percent in 2024.

“We see an improving growth outlook for the Philippines,” Lim said. “The underlying positive growth delta is driven by domestic demand as both investment and consumption accelerate in 2025.“

She said private investments would recover gradually as financial conditions become less restrictive and consumer sentiment gradually picks up. Solid labor income growth and the easing of food inflation will also help boost consumption growth.

“Consumption, as well, is likely to be positive amidst the improving fundamentals and the resilient labor market, which, I should add, is one of the most significant support for Philippines demand,” she said.

Lim said government spending and the continued growth in services exports would also support economic growth.

“What is also often underappreciated is the bright spot of services exports, especially in the BPO sector,” she said.

Lim said she expects the country’s BPO sector to remain resilient this year.

Higher tariffs – Asked about the impact of tariff trade escalation on the Philippine economy, Lim said the Philippines is in a “rather defensive market in the event of potential trade tariff escalation.”

“That’s because the Philippines is primarily domestic-oriented with investment as a percentage of GDP 23 percent, consumption over 70 percent. So not very trade-exposed,” she said.

She pointed out that in the case of trade tariff escalation, the Philippine peso could also be a relative outperformer in the region.

“That said, we do think that if tariffs are universal, then obviously there could be weaker prospects for currencies in general, but even in that scenario, it would not be a very big depreciation,” she said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippine economy has what it takes to grow by at least 5.9% this year? Do you think that the national economy can withstand the effects of new tariffs?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

DTI executive says Philippines is unlikely to be hit by Trump’s planned tariff hikes

December 13, 2024December 3, 2024carlocarrasco

Based on available details and key factors, an executive of the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) stated that the Philippines is unlikely to be hit by the planned tariff hikes of the returning United States President Donald Trump whose administration will formally start on January 20, 2025, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Undersecretary Ceferino Rodolfo said Monday that the Philippines is unlikely to be targeted by the planned tariff hikes under the incoming administration of United States President-elect Donald Trump, citing the balanced and healthy trade relationship between the two countries.

Rodolfo noted that the Philippines’ trade deficit with the US stood at USD4 billion in 2023, far smaller than the deficits the US faces with other Asian countries, including China (USD300 billion), Vietnam (USD109 billion), Japan (USD75 billion), South Korea (USD55 billion), India (USD47 billion), and Thailand (USD43 billion).

“We believe that countries with which the US has a huge trade deficit—particularly those which worsened during the past four years—will be likely targets of additional US tariffs,” he said.

He added that this puts the Philippines in a strong position as the US looks to address trade imbalances.

“With the Trump administration’s focus on reducing trade deficit, the Philippines can leverage the balanced and healthy Philippines-US trade, indicating a mutually beneficial trade relationship,” the DTI official added.

Strengthening ties – Rodolfo said DTI Secretary Cristina Roque and Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Secretary Frederick Go are working closely with the US government to ensure “even closer economic relations” with the long-time ally in preparation for Trump’s assumption into office.

He also pointed out that Trump’s pick for Department of State Secretary, Senator Marco Rubio, has been a strong proponent of closer economic and strategic ties between the US and the Philippines.

Rubio filed Senate Bill 4703, or the Philippines-US Strategic Partnership Act, which aims to enhance economic relations between the two countries.

The bill, filed on July 11, 2024, proposes to negotiate a critical minerals agreement with the Philippines; to prioritize support from the US International Development Finance Corporation for projects involving critical minerals and fossil fuels in the Philippines; and to identify additional US agencies that could invest in the Philippines, including the Department of Defense’s Office of Strategic Capital.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines won’t be hit by Trump’s planned tariff hikes? Are you hoping that under a Trump presidency, the Philippines and America will be able to have a free trade agreement?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

	ICYMI (ADN) on Seizing Uranium Of Terrorist S…
	kev on Seizing Uranium Of Terrorist S…
	kev on Seizing Uranium Of Terrorist S…
	Instapundit »… on Hezbollah Terrorist Who Worked…
	☆.♪°.ＣＬＡＲＡ♪・°☆.♪ on I Visited The Western Wall…

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: