Tag: Nomura Global Markets Research

Nomura Sees 2025 Philippine Economic Growth Slowing Down To 4.7%

Nomura Sees 2025 Philippine Economic Growth Slowing Down To 4.7%

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In its latest economic report, Nomura Global Markets Research sees the economic growth of the Philippines slowing down to 4.7% this and they pointed to an expected decline in government spending, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH may slow to 4.7% this year, as government spending is expected to further decline amid the corruption investigation in infrastructure projects, Nomura Global Markets Research said.

In a report dated Oct. 27, Nomura Chief ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economist Euben Paracuelles and Macroeconomic Research Analyst Yiru Chen said the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast was slashed to 4.7% this year from 5.3% previously as downside risks increased due to the corruption scandal involving flood control projects.

“This pencils in GDP growth slowing to just 4% in the second half from 5.4% in the first half and is based on the assumption that the decline in government expenditures in September will worsen in the next 3-4 months,” they said.

Nomura’s latest forecast is below the government’s 5.5-6.5% GDP growth target for the year and is slower than the 5.7% growth in 2024.

“Taking into account the sharp drop in fiscal spending in September, we think the ‘bad scenario’ on the growth impact of the ongoing corruption scandal is materializing,” they said.

Third-quarter GDP data will be released on Nov. 7.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. had flagged anomalous flood control projects during his State of the Nation Address in late July. This sparked several investigations into alleged corruption involving lawmakers, government officials, and private contractors.

Latest Treasury data showed government expenditures declined by 7.53% in September, worsening from the 0.7% drop in August, mainly due to lower spending by the Department of Public Works and Highways. Nomura also noted that government spending declined by 2.8% in the third quarter, a reversal of 1.6% growth in the second quarter.

“Excluding interest payments and debt servicing, expenditure growth slumped even more to -10.2% y-o-y (year on year) in September from -3.5% in August, the weakest since 2020. This suggests a relatively rapid deterioration in the pace of budget disbursements after President Marcos brought to light the corruption scandal of flood control projects,” they said.

Nomura also noted that the reallocation of funds to other types of capital expenditures such as school buildings has been “challenging” to implement.

“In addition, we incorporate some spillovers into other components of domestic demand, which were also evident in these previous episodes, including household consumption spending. Our forecast continues to take into account the impact of the US tariffs, which, as we have argued before, pose significant headwinds for goods exports,” they said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the GDP growth of the Philippines will end up below 5% for 2025 as a whole? Are you convinced that investigations and embarrassing details from flood control projects are turning away foreign investors already?  

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Nomura says America’s 19% tariff may cut Philippines GDP growth slightly

Nomura says America’s 19% tariff may cut Philippines GDP growth slightly

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In the middle of mixed reactions towards the United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine exports, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be cut by 0.4%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Recently, US President Donald Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., met in the White House which resulted in the new tariff.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine goods could cut the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.4 percentage point (ppt), Nomura Global Markets Research said.

In a report, Nomura said the US tariff of 19% on Philippine goods is “fairly high” and poses downside risks to growth.

“We estimate the direct effects could reduce our baseline GDP growth forecasts by a still-substantial 0.4 ppt in the Philippines.”

Nomura said this projection is “relatively substantial” compared to its baseline growth forecasts of 5.3% and 5.6% for this year and 2026, respectively.

“This is partly because we assigned 10% as the level where the reciprocal tariff rate could settle, on the assumption that the Philippines is a strong ally of the US and is not a third country for transshipments,” Nomura said.

“As it turns out, despite the visit to Washington by President Marcos and both sides reiterating the need for a strong partnership, the tariff was still set at 19%, which is even higher than the ‘Liberation Day’ level of 17%.”

Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. met with US President Donald J. Trump at the White House in Washington, DC. Mr. Trump announced a 19% tariff would be imposed on Philippine goods, which will take effect starting Aug. 1.

“The trade ‘deals’ therefore represent upside surprises in terms of tariff rates, especially for the Philippines,” Nomura said.

“As a result, if implemented and these tariff rates are sustained, these will likely further weigh on growth in both countries relative to our current baseline forecasts.”

The government expects GDP to grow by 5.5-6.5% this year, lower than its previous target of 6-8%.

“While these ballpark estimates make sense to us, uncertainty remains high and these are ‘only’ taking into account the direct effects on these ASEAN countries’ exports to the US,” Nomura said.

These estimates do not account for sectoral tariffs, such as in semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are currently exempted, it added.

“But as our US team highlights, the risk is these could be set higher, though some countries could be exempted, adding to the uncertainty. As mentioned above, the details of the trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines are still limited.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines is in a serious disadvantage with the American tariff of 19% imposed on the nation’s exports? Do you think the Philippine economy still has strong momentum to reach 6% GDP growth by the end of this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Nomura trims Philippine economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

Nomura trims Philippine economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

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As far as the Nomura Global Markets Research is concerned, the economic growth of the Philippines will for 2025 and 2026 will end up weaker than previously expected, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

NOMURA GLOBAL Markets Research has trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and 2026 following the weak first-quarter expansion.

Nomura cut its Philippine economic growth forecast to 5.3% for this year from 5.9% previously, it said in a report dated May 9. It also slashed its 2026 projection to 5.6% from 6.1%.

Both projections are well below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s 6-8% growth target for 2025 until 2028.

“Our 2025-26 GDP forecast revisions take into account the disappointing first-quarter outturn, which only rose slightly to 5.4% year on year from 5.3% in fourth quarter 2024, despite election-related spending,” Nomura analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said in the report.

“Escalating global trade and geopolitical tensions are the main downside risks to growth. A faster rollout of infrastructure projects and lower oil prices are upside risks.”

The Philippine economy expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter, the government reported last week. This was a tad faster than the revised 5.3% in the previous quarter but sharply slower from the 5.9% growth in the same period in 2024.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Group Rosemarie G. Edillon said that GDP would need to grow by 6.2% for the rest of the year to reach the lower end of the 6-8% goal.

Based on its forecasts, Nomura expects the Philippines to post below-6% GDP growth for the rest of the year. Broken down, it sees GDP growth of 5.3% in the second quarter, 5.4% in the third quarter, and just 5% in the fourth quarter.

In 2024, the economy expanded by 6.5% in the second quarter, 5.2% in the third quarter, and 5.3% in the fourth quarter.

“A key source of the downside surprise [in the first quarter] was investment spending growth, which we believe suggests businesses have already turned cautious amid surging global trade uncertainty, even in a less open economy,” Nomura said.

“We expect a moderate pickup in real GDP growth in 2026, led by the government’s strong push for more progress on infrastructure projects.”

It added that it expects the country to post a current account deficit of 4.1% of GDP this year and 4.4% of GDP next year, wider than the 3.8% ratio in 2024, driven by an increase in capital goods imports amid the government’s infrastructure push and weaker exports due to the US’ tariffs.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can still grow stronger than what Nomura predicts in 2025 and 2026? Do you think the national government should make new economic moves to stimulate the national economy while also attracting new foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco