gross domestic product (GDP) – Page 6

Lower-than-expected economic growth for the Philippines until 2025

November 26, 2024November 19, 2024carlocarrasco

Based on the recent findings of Citigroup, Inc., the growth domestic product (GDP) of the Philippines will grow at a lower-than-expected rate until 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to expand slower than the government’s target until 2025, Citigroup, Inc. (Citi) said.

Citi cut its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.8% this year but kept its 6% growth forecast for 2025. This is below the government’s 6-7% target this year and 6.5-7.5% goal next year.

“We lowered 2024 GDP growth slightly from 6% to 5.8%, mainly due to a weak third-quarter outturn that had been a result of several temporary, weather-related factors,” Citi economist for Thailand and the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham said in a report.

The Philippine economy slowed to 5.2% in the July-to-September period from 6.4% in the second quarter and 6% a year ago. This was also the weakest growth since the 4.3% expansion in the second quarter of last year.

“Nonetheless, we think it would be misleading to view the weaker third-quarter expansion as the start of a slowdown as several negative factors in the third quarter are one-off events,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

She said the weakness in third-quarter economic growth mainly stemmed from the drop in agriculture production, construction activity and net exports.

Despite the weak third quarter, Citi expects growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter as domestic demand is seen to pick up due to easing inflation and lower rates.

“We expect fourth-quarter 2024 GDP growth to accelerate to 6% year on year. Household consumption is expected to continue improving, supported by lower interest rates and improved consumer sentiment as inflation continues to stabilize.”

In the first nine months, GDP grew by 5.8%. The economy would need to grow by at least 6.5% in the fourth quarter to meet the lower end of the government’s 6-7% target.

“With the storm season passing soon, we also expect infrastructure projects’ progress to proceed at a faster clip in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

Domestic demand will also likely be sustained by improving employment conditions, remittance growth and bank lending.

“The RRR (reserve requirement ratio) cut of 250 basis points (bps), effective on Oct. 25, would also release more liquidity into the banking system and likely continue to support strong credit expansion,” Ms. Chutchotitham added.

The central bank last month reduced the RRR for universal and commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 bps to 7%.

“We also maintain our expectation of 6% growth in 2025 but see some upside risks due to tailwinds from more rate cuts,” Citi said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will likely cut by 25 bps in December and by a total of 75 bps next year, according to Citi.

This year so far, the central bank has reduced interest rates by 50 bps since August. The Monetary Board is set to hold its last rate-setting meeting of the year on Dec. 19.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines still has enough momentum to exceed the 4^th quarter growth targets of economists?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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US President-elect Trump and Philippine President Marcos discuss alliance over the phone

November 23, 2024November 20, 2024carlocarrasco

In recent times, the returning US President Donald Trump and President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., talked with each other on the phone and discussed the US-Philippines alliance, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

For the newcomers reading this, Trump pulled off the greatest American political comeback ever after crushing Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. spoke to United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump over the phone on Tuesday morning, where they discussed the longstanding alliance between their two countries.

In a media interview during his visit to typhoon-hit communities in the province of Catanduanes, Marcos said he expressed to Trump the Philippines’ openness to further deepen relations with its oldest and strongest military ally.

“I expressed to him our continuing desire to strengthen that relationship between our two countries, which is a relationship that is as deep as can possibly be because it has been for a very long time,” he said.

The President said he also expressed his intention to meet with Trump as soon as possible. He added that he told Trump that Filipinos in the US voted “overwhelmingly” in his favor.

Trump is set for his second term as US president after winning the recently held elections.

According to Marcos, it is his mother, Imelda Marcos, who is a close friend of Trump.

“Ang kaibigan niya talaga mother ko. Kilalang-kilala niya ang mother ko. Kinukumusta niya, ‘How’s Imelda?’ Sabi ko binabati ka nga (It is really my mother who is his friend. He knows my mother very well. He asked how she is, ‘How’s Imelda?’ I said she is extending her congratulations),” he said.

Although he said they did not talk about the fears of a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants in the US after Trump’s win, Marcos assured that the government is already working on it to assist affected Filipinos.

“We didn’t talk about that. It was just a congratulatory call. But, of course, our ambassador is already working on that,” he said.

Nonetheless, Marcos said his conversation with Trump was “very productive.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Are you concerned that once Trump takes office again as US President on January 20, 2025, a lot of Filipinos illegally staying in America will get deported along with millions of other illegal aliens? Are you concerned that the dynamics of trade between the United States and the Philippines will be changed drastically? Do you think America under Trump will increase military support for the Philippines facing the bullying presence of China?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines 3rd quarter economic growth settles at 5.2%

November 12, 2024November 8, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently it was announced that the economy of the Philippines expanded by 5.2% in the 3^rd quarter of 2024, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines remains one of the fastest growing economies in the region despite the slowdown in the third quarter of the year, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said on Thursday.

Philippine economic growth settled at 5.2 percent in the third quarter, lower than the 6 percent recorded in the same period last year.

The latest data brought the year-to-date gross domestic product (GDP) expansion to 5.8 percent, slightly under the 6-percent lower end of the government’s growth target for this year.

“Our economy continues to grow steadily; the latest GDP figures indicate continuous expansion. Of the countries that have reported their third-quarter GDP growth rates, we remain one of the fastest-growing Asian economies,” Balisacan said in a briefing at the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) office in Quezon City.

“We follow Vietnam, which posted a 7.4 percent growth rate, and are ahead of Indonesia (with 4.9 percent), China (4.6 percent), and Singapore (4.1 percent), ” he added.

Among the major economic sectors, industry and services grew by 5 percent and 6.3 percent in the third quarter.

National Statistician Dennis Mapa said, however, that agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector contracted by 2.8 percent.

Balisacan explained that the contraction in the agriculture sector was due to the effects of El Niño, seven typhoons, and Habagat. He added the fishing ban in Cavite and Bataan due to the oil spill, and cancellation of fishing trips due to bad weather conditions, also affected fishing and aquaculture.

“Likewise, livestock production decreased due to the recent outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), such as in Batangas last August,” he said.

Balisacan said the successive typhoons also suspended classes and work in government and some private offices, resulting in administrative delays.

Household final consumption expenditure grew by 5.1 percent, which Balisacan attributed to the slower consumer price inflation. Government final consumption expenditure slowed to 5 percent from 6.7 percent.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will grow much faster in the 4^th quarter?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economy of the Philippines to keep growing above 6% in 2024 and 2025

November 1, 2024October 24, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently, an economist predicted that the economy of the Philippines will keep growing above 6% this year and next year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy is expected to remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region, with growth likely settling at above 6 percent for 2024 and 2025.

In his economic and market outlook released on Tuesday, BPI senior vice president and lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. said economic growth will likely hit 6.1 percent this year and further accelerate to 6.3 percent in 2025.

“The Philippine economy has been resilient despite significant headwinds like severe El Niño and devastating typhoons, still managing to grow by 6% in the first half of 2024,” Neri said.

“Looking ahead, the Philippine economy will likely continue to outperform in the region, supported by its strong consumer base,” he added.

Neri expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2 percent in 2024 and further decelerate to 2.8 percent in 2025.

“Inflation is expected to be more manageable in the coming year given the improving prospects of food supply. With El Niño now behind us and the potential increase in production, along with tariff reductions, rice may become more affordable,” he said.

Neri said lower inflation may help boost consumption in the coming year, while election-related spending could also further stimulate economic activity.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to exceed the growth forecasts of the economists for 2024 and beyond? Do you think the Philippines can do a better job on attracting more foreign investors soon?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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AMRO sees Philippine economy growing 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025

October 15, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

In its recent update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) sees the economy of the Philippines achieving growth of 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES will likely post the second-fastest growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus 3 (ASEAN+3) region this year and in 2025, driven by faster government spending and easing interest rates, according to a regional think tank.

In its October update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines at 6.1% this year and 6.3% next year.

“We didn’t change the forecast for the Philippines. As you can see, we expect growth to be at 6.1%, which will be an improvement from last year’s 5.6%,” AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor told a virtual briefing on Thursday.

“This is mainly because we expect government investment spending to be higher this year, together with services exports,” he said.

The AMRO’s projection is within the government’s 6-7% target for 2024. However, its 2025 forecast is below the government’s 6.5-7.5% goal.

Mr. Khor said Philippine economic growth remains one of the strongest in the ASEAN+3 region, which includes members of the ASEAN, China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.

AMRO’s growth forecast for the Philippines is just behind Vietnam (6.2%), and ahead of Cambodia (5.6%), Indonesia (5.1%), China (5%), Malaysia (4.7%), Laos (4.5%), Brunei Darussalam (4%), Hong Kong (3.3%), Thailand (2.8%), South Korea (2.5%), Singapore (2.4%), Myanmar (1.8%) and Japan (0.5%).

Philippine growth is also projected to be above the projected ASEAN+3 average of 4.2% this year. This was slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.4%.

“Growth for the region will be driven by continued recovery in external trade, resilient domestic demand, and a boost in tourism due to relaxed visa policies in some economies,” AMRO said.

For 2025, the ASEAN+3 region’s growth forecast was upgraded to 4.4% from 4.3% previously, in line with expectations of steady global growth.

“The region is on track to achieve steady growth this year and the next and this will be underpinned by resilient domestic demand and the ongoing recovery in exports,” AMRO Principal Economist Allen Ng told the briefing.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation the Philippine economy has enough momentum to grow better in 2025 than what AMRO predicted?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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NEDA sees faster Philippines GDP growth in the 2nd half of 2024

September 17, 2024September 12, 2024carlocarrasco

Citing some factors, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) sees faster gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Philippine economy in the 2^nd half of this year which should result in a full 2024 growth rate of 6% to 7%, according to a BusinessWorld new report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second semester could be faster than the 6% average in the first half amid easing inflation and lower policy rates, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.

“Now, with inflation lower, with policy rates lower, with the labor market continuing to be robust, I think we would see an even better second half than in the first half,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of a Senate hearing on Wednesday.

In the second quarter, GDP expanded by 6.3%, bringing the first-half growth to 6%.

“We are expecting 6-7% (GDP growth) for the full year, and I think that the likelihood that we’ll achieve that is now very high,” Mr. Balisacan said.

However, even as inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.3% in August, Mr. Balisacan noted that the economy remains sensitive to inflationary pressures.

Year to date, inflation averaged 3.6%, settling within the 2-4% target range of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The inflation downtrend has allowed the BSP to begin its easing cycle with its first rate cut in nearly four years last August. The Monetary Board lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% from the over 17-year high of 6.25% previously.

Mr. Balisacan noted the impact of lower policy rates “is not almost instantaneous.”

Despite this, the Philippine and US central banks’ expected easing path should help boost investment activity and support growth, he said.

“Especially now that the expectations everywhere with the Fed expected to decrease (interest rates)… then, there is now greater stimulus for us to continue lowering the policy rates,” he said. “With the business community hearing that, they are likely to rethink their investment plans.”

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier signaled another 25-bp cut in the fourth quarter. The last two Monetary Board meetings for the year are scheduled on Oct. 17 and Dec. 19.

Meanwhile, GDP growth is expected to settle within the government’s target range this year, but may fall short of the growth goals in the next two years, according to the latest forecasts from the BSP’s Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to achieve GDP growth of 7% for 2024?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines 2024 2nd quarter economic growth at 6.3%

August 9, 2024August 8, 2024carlocarrasco

The economy of the Philippines grew at a fast 6.3% in the 2^nd quarter (April to June 2024) according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. The declared quarterly growth rate placed the Philippines ahead of Malaysia, Indonesia and China.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine economic growth accelerated to 6.3 percent in the second quarter of the year from 4.3 percent in the same period last year, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said in a briefing on Thursday.

Mapa said economic growth during the period was also higher than the 5.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth recorded in the first quarter of the year.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the latest economic growth makes the Philippines one of the fastest-growing economies in the region.

“This performance keeps our position as one of Asia’s best-performing major emerging economies. For East Asia’s economies that have released their second quarter 2024 GDP growth, we follow behind Vietnam at 6.9 percent while leading Malaysia at 5.8 percent, Indonesia at 5.0 percent, and China at 4.7 percent,” said Balisacan.

Among major economic sectors, industry and services grew by 7.7 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, however, contracted by 2.3 percent due to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon.

Household final consumption expenditure grew by 4.6 percent while government final consumption expenditure expanded by 10.7 percent.

Balisacan said the increase in government final consumption expenditure was driven by the timely implementation and expanded coverage programs of various social protection, health, and education programs, and preparatory activities for the 2025 national and local elections. Gross capital formation went up by 11.5 percent.

Public construction sustained double-digit growth of 21.8 percent as the government’s infrastructure agencies expedited the rollout of the Marcos Jr. administration’s construction and rehabilitation projects.

Exports of goods and services rose by 4.2 percent while imports of goods and services went up by 5.2 percent.

On track to meet target – “This significant development brings our real GDP growth to 6.0 percent for the first half of the year, keeping us on track to achieve our target growth rate of 6 to 7 percent for 2024,” said Balisacan.

He said the economy would need to grow by at least 6 percent in the second half to attain the lower end of the target for 2024.

Balisacan assured that the government would ensure the benefits of economic growth would be shared equitably.

“President Marcos began his 2024 State of the Nation Address with one of our most urgent priorities: the government will continue its push for food security by managing food inflation with appropriate supply-side measures,” he said.

He said the government was committed to utilizing strategic trade policy to augment insufficient domestic food supplies to meet rising demand.

The government will also expedite the rollout of social protection programs for the poor and vulnerable sectors, including enhancements to the Department of Social Welfare and Development’s Food Stamp Program and the 4Ps Program.

Aside from these, the government will also focus on raising agricultural productivity and improving farmers’ incomes and competitiveness.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to achieve a growth rate of at least 6.5% for the entire year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines achieves 5.7% economic growth in 1st quarter of 2024

May 23, 2024May 9, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently it was confirmed that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.7% in the first quarter of 2024 which is noticeably lower than what was achieved in the same time period a year ago, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy grew by 5.7 percent in the first quarter of the year, surpassing other major economies in the region.

In a briefing on Thursday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said the economic growth during the quarter was higher than the 5.5 percent seen in the last quarter of 2023.

Mapa said, however, it was lower than the 6.4 percent economic growth seen in the first quarter of last year.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan noted that the Philippine economy continues to demonstrate resilience and growth despite the domestic and external headwinds.

“Despite our challenges on both domestic and international fronts, our economy continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and growth. This performance retains the country’s position as a leading force among Asia’s emerging economies,” he said.

Balisacan said the first quarter Philippine gross domestic product growth rate is about the same as Vietnam’s, and surpassed other major economies such as China at 5.3 percent, Indonesia at 5.1 percent, and Malaysia at 3.9 percent.

All major economic indicators which include agriculture, forestry, and fishing; industry; and services posted year-on-year growth in the first quarter at 0.4 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.9 percent.

Household final consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure posted lower growth rates at 4.6 percent and 1.7 percent from a year ago’s 6.4 percent and 6.2 percent.

Balisacan said the slowdown in household spending was due to the elevated prices of major food items and the heat wave.

“Meanwhile, government spending also slowed down, primarily due to the sliding of a large amount of expenditure to April this year, whereas the government made such spending in March last year,” he said.

Gross capital formation also posted a lower growth of 1.3 percent from 12.8 percent last year, while imports of goods and services also slowed to 2.3 percent from 4.2 percent.

Growth of exports of goods and services, however, accelerated to 7.5 percent from 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023. Balisacan said the growth in exports was mainly driven by the recovery in the exports of electronics products.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national economy will be able to grow at least 6% in each of the next three quarters? Is it possible that the intense summer heat will make 2nd quarter economic growth smaller?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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DBCC revises Philippine economic growth targets for 2024 and 2025

April 17, 2024April 7, 2024carlocarrasco

As far as the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is concerned, current domestic and global developments justified their recent revision of economic growth targets for the Philippines in 2024 and 2025, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has adjusted its economic growth targets for 2024 and 2025 due to current domestic and global developments.

The DBCC revised downward its gross domestic product (GDP) outlook for 2024 to 6 to 7 percent from the previous range of 6.5 to 7.5 percent, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said in a Palace press briefing on Thursday.

For 2025, the DBCC narrowed the GDP target to 6.5 to 7.5 percent from the previous 6.5 to 8 percent. Balisacan said the growth projection of 6.5 to 8 percent for 2026 to 2028 was retained.

The revised targets growth targets were initially discussed during the DBCC’s 187th meeting on March 22.

The DBCC took into consideration the latest trade outlook of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) amid global trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. approved the latest GDP outlook when he presided over the 16th full Cabinet meeting at Malacañan Palace in Manila on Wednesday.

Balisacan said the Marcos administration remains steadfast in its commitment to sustaining the robust growth trajectory of the Philippine economy.

“Robust macroeconomic fundamentals will support this growth trajectory. These growth targets will sustain the country’s position as one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region,” Balisacan said.

“The government’s dedication transcends meeting statistical targets or numerical benchmarks. We direct our efforts toward realizing a strategic and compelling vision for our nation’s prosperity even as we navigate a global economic landscape marked by various challenges within and without,” he added.

Balisacan also assured the public that the government is still on track to achieving the upper middle income status by 2025.

Opportunities and risks – Balisacan said the country’s economic team discussed the possible opportunities and risk to growth outlook, adding that it identified several domestic and external challenges that are “on the horizon.”

These include climate change and extreme natural disasters such as El Niño that would “continue to pose risks to food security and the stability of food prices,” he said.

“Additionally, risks related to inflation, such as potential adjustments in transport fares, wages, and service utility fees higher than expected, could dampen household consumption,” he said.

Balisacan also cited that global economic slowdown may weaken external demand, while increasing geopolitical and trade tensions could disrupt supply chains.

He added that general elections in major economies could lead to political shifts that may disrupt trade and investment.

“Despite the anticipated risks, we remain optimistic about the country’s sustained growth momentum as we strive for better development outcomes. We aspire to position the Philippines as a frontrunner within our region and beyond—a beacon of inclusive progress and resilience,” Balisacan said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will end up growing at a lower-than-expected pace?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Fitch sees Philippine economy outpacing Southeast Asian economies this year with 6.4% growth

March 25, 2024March 15, 2024carlocarrasco

Financial firm Fitch Ratings expects the economy of the Philippines to grow the fastest among Southeast Asian economies this year with a growth rate of 6.4%, according to a news article by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES is expected to be the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia this year, according to Fitch Ratings.

Data from Fitch Ratings’ Asia-Pacific Sovereigns Credit Outlook for February showed that the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to expand by 6.4% this year.

This will be the fastest growth in Southeast Asia, ahead of Vietnam (6.3%), Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.2%), Thailand (3.8%) and Singapore (2.3%).

Krisjanis Krustins, Fitch Ratings’ primary sovereign analyst for the Philippines, said Philippine GDP growth would likely remain above 6% in the next few years.

“We forecast real GDP growth of above 6% over the medium term, considerably stronger than the ‘BBB’ median of 3%, supported by large investments in infrastructure and reforms to foster trade and investment, including through public-private partnerships (PPPs),” he said in an earlier commentary.

Fitch Ratings’ forecast is slightly below the government’s 6.5-7.5% target this year.

The Philippine economy grew by 5.6% in 2023, slower than 7.6% in 2022 and fell short of the government’s 6-7% full-year target.

Economic managers have said they might revise growth assumptions and targets to be more “realistic” and account for global economic conditions.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is set to release first-quarter GDP data on May 9.

For 2025, Fitch expects Philippine economic output to expand by 6.5%. This also makes it the fastest-growing economy in the region next year, alongside Vietnam. It will be ahead of Indonesia (5.2%), Malaysia (4.5%), Thailand (3.4%) and Singapore (3%).

In November, Fitch Ratings affirmed the Philippines’ “BBB” investment grade rating and kept its “stable” outlook.

A “BBB” rating indicates low default risk and reflects the economy’s adequate capacity to pay debt. A “stable” outlook on the rating also means it is likely to be maintained over the next 18-24 months.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction about this recent development? Do you think Fitch’s predictions for the Philippine economy will turn out true by the end of 2024?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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