gross domestic product (GDP) – Page 5

UA&P Sees Stronger Q3 Economic Growth for the Philippines Despite Trump Tariffs

September 1, 2025August 25, 2025carlocarrasco

As far as the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) is concerned, the economy of the Philippines will still grow stronger in the 3^rd quarter by 5.8% despite the 19% Trump tariffs, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth may pick up in the third quarter despite higher US tariffs and “milder” typhoons, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said.

“Despite the Trump tariffs, milder typhoon season will help accelerate GDP expansion in Q3 to 5.8%, given a low base in 2024,” it said in its latest The Market Call released on Friday.

If realized, this would be faster than 5.2% in the third quarter of 2024 and 5.5% print in the second quarter. This forecast is also within the government’s revised 5.5% to 6.5% target this year.

“Consumer spending remains strong, aided by low inflation but limited by new US taxes on OFW (overseas Filipino Worker) remittances,” UA&P said.

Inflation cooled to a near six-year low of 0.9% in July as utilities and food costs continued to ease. This brought the seven-month average to 1.7%, slightly below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target band.

UA&P said government infrastructure spending may also regain momentum in the third quarter. This was after state spending slumped due to the 45-day election ban on public works spending from March 28 to May 12.

UA&P said residential construction will remain subdued due to elevated policy and interest rates.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 125 basis points (bps) since it began its easing cycle in August last year. The policy rate now stands at 5.25%.

UA&P said the US dollar rate will “move either way” depending on rate cuts by the BSP and the US Federal Reserve.

“The peso-dollar rate has a fundamental depreciation bias although it will depend much on extent and timing of policy rate cuts by BSP and the Fed,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to grow stronger in the 3^rd quarter even though the 19% Trump tariffs are already in effect? Do you see any signs of Philippine exports to America slowing down already?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine Economy Grew by 5.5% in 2nd Quarter of 2025

August 9, 2025August 7, 2025carlocarrasco

The economy of the Philippines expanded by 5.5% during the 2^nd quarter of 2025, according to a GMA Network news report. Among the factors are strong 2^nd quarter gains by the agriculture, forestry, fishing, industry and services sectors.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the GMA News. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy grew marginally quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2025 amid the growth seen in services, agriculture, and industry sectors, and posted a deceleration from the same period last year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of goods and services produced in a period — grew slightly faster by 5.5% in the April to June 2025 compared to the 5.4% growth seen in the January to March 2025 period, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa reported at a press conference in Quezon City on Thursday.

The second quarter GDP growth was the fastest in four quarters, however, it was still slower than the 6.5% growth rate in the same period in 2024.

All major economic sectors posted annual growth during the quarter — agriculture, forestry, and fishing with 7.0%, industry with 2.1%, and services with 6.9%.

The PSA attributed the year-on-year growth to wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles with 5.1%; public administration and defense, and compulsory social security with 12.8%; and financial and insurance activities with 5.6%.

Fixed capital investments climbed 2.6%, led by private construction which grew 11.2%, and investments in durable equipment up 10.6%.

Government spending posted an 8.7% growth rate during the quarter, slower than the 18.7% seen in the first quarter, which Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan attributed to the election spending ban.

“We expect to maintain that momentum in the spending side. I think that the next half, the second half of the year, you should see improvements in the construction, public construction spending,” he said in a briefing.

While the election spending ban hit government spending, officials said the campaigns boosted household spending which grew by 9.5%, faster than the 5.29% in the previous quarter, and the 5.4% in the second quarter of 2024.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to accelerate to achieve 6% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the entire year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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ADB sees Philippine economy growing by 5.6% this year

August 1, 2025July 24, 2025carlocarrasco

By pointing to a variety of factors, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently announced that the economy of the Philippines will grow by 5.6% this year, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). The ADB recently released its latest economy report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the first PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines is expected to post the second highest economic growth in Southeast Asia this year despite the downgrade in growth outlook due to external headwinds, a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) showed.

In its Asian Development Outlook July 2025 report released on Wednesday, the ADB said Philippine economic growth is expected to settle at 5.6 percent this year.

The growth outlook for the Philippines is the second highest in Southeast Asia, next to Vietnam’s 6.3 percent. Indonesia is projected to grow by 5 percent, Malaysia by 4.3 percent, Singapore by 1.6 percent, and Thailand by 1.8 percent.

For 2026, growth is expected to slightly pick up to 5.8 percent.

The ADB’s latest projection, however, was lower than its 6 percent for 2024 and 6.1 percent for 2025 economic growth forecast amid external headwinds. The Philippine economy grew by 5.4 percent in the first quarter of the year.

“Domestic demand grew 6.7 percent, supported by easing inflation and monetary policy. However, net exports dragged on growth as brisk imports outpaced exports,” the ADB said. It added that manufacturing index (PMI) recovered slightly to 50.7 in June from 50.1 in May.

“Consumer sentiment was positive in the near term. Unemployment was low at 3.9 percent in May, and remittance growth of 3.0 percent helped sustain household spending,” it said.

The ADB, however, said that business confidence softened amid heightened global policy uncertainties.

According to the ADB, economic forecasts for most countries in Southeast Asia have been downgraded for 2025 and 2026 due to the continuing global growth slowdown and increased trade uncertainty.

“Weaker external conditions have hurt business and consumer sentiment and threaten to disrupt investment in the subregion,” it said.

“Except for Indonesia, the largest economy in the subregion, all Southeast Asian economies are expected to post weaker growth in the next two years.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think it is still possible for the economy of the Philippines reach 6% GDP growth by the end of 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Department of Finance (DOF) says 6% economic growth is quite difficult to achieve this year

July 31, 2025July 23, 2025carlocarrasco

The uncertainty about this year’s economic growth for the Philippines has gotten stronger as the Department of Finance (DOF) admitted that achieving 6% growth is quite difficult, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The DOF pointed to external shocks that are affecting the national economy.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

While the Philippine economy has already been recovering from its deep recession during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, hitting its growth potential of six percent would be challenging given the global uncertainties spilling over domestically, according to the Department of Finance (DOF).

“We do think that the potential of the Philippines is at the minimum six-percent growth. But of course, it’s quite difficult, especially knowing some of the challenges that we’re seeing,” DOF Undersecretary and Chief Economist Domini Velasquez told reporters during the Philippine thrift banks’ annual convention on Tuesday, July 15.

Just before the initial three-month pause on reciprocal tariffs ended on July 9, United States (US) President Donald Trump had stretched it to Aug. 1, but hiked the rates for Philippine exports to 20 percent from 17 percent previously, repeatedly citing the “significant and persistent trade deficit” that the trade giant has with its former colony.

Velasquez noted that the tariff hike was among the uncertainties that the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) had considered in downscaling its growth target for the year, through 2028.

Last month, the economic team slashed its 2025 GDP growth target to between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent from six- to 6.5-percent previously. Cited as factors were heightened external uncertainties, especially the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the imposition of US tariffs.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto told reporters during an informal press chat on Wednesday, July 16, that he expects the economy to accelerate “significantly” in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter.

“In effect, the target is still six percent for the year,” Recto noted, taking off from the recently revised growth goal. “Realistically, it’s probably around 5.7 percent or 5.8 percent for the year. It depends, because there’s a lot of uncertainty—uncertainty with trade policy.”

“But I think the second quarter will definitely be better than the first,” Recto said, noting that the improvement will be driven by both government and household consumption.

The DBCC had also narrowed the growth target range for 2026 to 2028 to six to seven percent, from the previously more ambitious six to eight percent.

“We did recognize those [tariffs]. When we dialed down on our growth target in 2025, it’s really because of the external factors that we were seeing,” Velasquez said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national economy is not strong enough to achieve 6% GDP growth by the end of this year? What do you think the national government should do to strengthen economic growth and make the Philippines more attractive to foreign investors? Do you think the Philippines still has a chance to convince America to lower its planned tariff on Philippine-made goods?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Domestic travel leading recovery of Philippine tourism industry

July 15, 2025July 11, 2025carlocarrasco

While it is a fact that the Philippines is failing on attracting visitors from overseas, the real estate advisory firm Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC) pointed to domestic travel as the key to the industry’s recovery, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Domestic travel continues to lead the recovery of the Philippine tourism industry, with its receipts able to make up for the “shortfall” in international arrivals, real estate advisory firm Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC) said Thursday.

“Domestic travel is so big. It’s so big and strong that it can make up for, now in the short term, the shortfall of international arrivals,” Alfred Lay, LPC director for Hotels, Tourism, and Leisure, said during the presentation of the LPC Q2 2025 Philippine Property Market Report in Makati City.

“It can do that for a long time, and the long-term goal for domestic tourism would probably to double (its) size within the next five to 10 years.”

Lay noted that domestic tourism expenditure in 2024 reached PHP3.16 trillion, surpassing the pre-pandemic level of PHP3.14 trillion in 2019. Tourism contributed 8.9 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) last year.

International tourism expenditures, on the other hand, stood at PHP699 billion, up from PHP600 billion pre-pandemic levels, despite missing the 2024 targets.

In an interview, Lay said he expects inbound arrivals this year to reach at least six million.

He noted that the arrival of South Korean visitors, the Philippines’ top market, has seen a decline in the past five months, likely due to the “negative media coverage” in South Korea over security issues in the country, but long-haul tourists are increasing and have offset the decline.

According to the LPC report, Korean arrivals in the first five months of 2025 dipped 19 percent to 552,000 from 682,000 in the same period last year, while inbound arrivals from the United States, Japan, Australia, and Canada surged between 9 percent and 19.4 percent.

Additional routes and flight frequencies, he said, are likewise expected to sustain this upward momentum.

Meanwhile, Lay addressed news coverage about the affordability of travel to the Philippines, stating that the country only ranks in the “middle of the pack” in terms of hotel average daily rates (ADR) compared to Southeast Asian neighbors and competitors.

The LPC report showed that the Philippines ranks fourth in hotel ADR at PHP6,048, with Thailand (PHP8,171), Cambodia (PHP6,591), and Vietnam (PHP6,359) in the top three places.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the tourism industry of the Philippines will do better this year with domestic travel as the main factor? Do you think it is still possible for the Philippines to attract at least six million foreign tourists by the end of this year? Do you think both the national government and private sector should work together to improve local infrastructure so that the cost of travel will go down?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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World Bank says Philippines economic growth will be below 6% per year until 2031

June 3, 2025June 3, 2025carlocarrasco

By pointing to several economic factors, the World Bank stated that it expects the economy of the Philippines to grow less than 6% per year until the year 2031, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines’ annual economic growth is expected by the World Bank Group (WBG) to remain below six percent this year until 2031.

Its newest country partnership framework (CPF) for the Philippines, covering fiscal years (FYs) 2026 to 2031, showed that the WBG forecasts Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.3 percent for this year, 5.4 percent for next year, and 5.5 percent for 2027—all below the more ambitious six- to eight-percent target of the Marcos Jr. administration for the second half of its term.

“The average GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2027 is expected at 5.4 percent. Risks are mostly tilted downside and include potential retaliation by main global players that may affect global growth further, probably hitting domestic growth,” the WBG said, referring to the lingering world trade uncertainty caused by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff spree.

“Increased uncertainty could trigger instability in financial markets and capital flight,” it added.

On the flipside, “the Philippines may benefit from improved margins of preference for key export products, and from lower global commodity prices (tied to lower global growth), and absent any external pressures, the prospect of continued monetary policy rate normalization” in the next three years, the WBG said.

This year, its projected 5.3-percent GDP growth rate—poised to be the slowest pace of expansion since the Philippine economy gradually reopened from the most stringent Covid-19 restrictions—was attributed by the WBG to “the direct impacts of the higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainty on demand for exports, the effects of increased global policy uncertainty on investment demand, and the indirect effects on export and investment demand through lower global growth.”

But on the upside, “these negative effects are dampened as the Philippines is mostly integrated in services rather than merchandise value chains (that have been most affected by trade policy barriers), and as public investment and private investment in non-tradables is expected to remain robust,” the WBG added.

Philippine GDP growth is seen picking up gradually to 5.7 percent in 2028, 5.8 percent both in 2029 and 2030, and 5.9 percent in 2031.

The WBG forecasts headline inflation to be in the range of three to 3.2 percent from 2025 to 2031—within the targeted two- to four-percent annual consumer price increases deemed conducive to economic growth.

As the Marcos Jr. administration embarks on fiscal consolidation to narrow the yawning budget deficit and lower the share of public debt to the economy following massive borrowings at the height of the pandemic, the WBG projected the fiscal deficit narrowing gradually from 5.7 percent of GDP in 2024 to 5.4 percent in 2025, 4.9 percent in 2026, 4.4 percent in 2027, 4.1 percent in 2028, 3.9 percent in 2029, 3.7 percent in 2030, and 3.6 percent in 2031.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines currently does not have enough strength to exceed the crucial 6% mark for annual growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nomura trims Philippine economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

May 16, 2025May 14, 2025carlocarrasco

As far as the Nomura Global Markets Research is concerned, the economic growth of the Philippines will for 2025 and 2026 will end up weaker than previously expected, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

NOMURA GLOBAL Markets Research has trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and 2026 following the weak first-quarter expansion.

Nomura cut its Philippine economic growth forecast to 5.3% for this year from 5.9% previously, it said in a report dated May 9. It also slashed its 2026 projection to 5.6% from 6.1%.

Both projections are well below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s 6-8% growth target for 2025 until 2028.

“Our 2025-26 GDP forecast revisions take into account the disappointing first-quarter outturn, which only rose slightly to 5.4% year on year from 5.3% in fourth quarter 2024, despite election-related spending,” Nomura analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said in the report.

“Escalating global trade and geopolitical tensions are the main downside risks to growth. A faster rollout of infrastructure projects and lower oil prices are upside risks.”

The Philippine economy expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter, the government reported last week. This was a tad faster than the revised 5.3% in the previous quarter but sharply slower from the 5.9% growth in the same period in 2024.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Group Rosemarie G. Edillon said that GDP would need to grow by 6.2% for the rest of the year to reach the lower end of the 6-8% goal.

Based on its forecasts, Nomura expects the Philippines to post below-6% GDP growth for the rest of the year. Broken down, it sees GDP growth of 5.3% in the second quarter, 5.4% in the third quarter, and just 5% in the fourth quarter.

In 2024, the economy expanded by 6.5% in the second quarter, 5.2% in the third quarter, and 5.3% in the fourth quarter.

“A key source of the downside surprise [in the first quarter] was investment spending growth, which we believe suggests businesses have already turned cautious amid surging global trade uncertainty, even in a less open economy,” Nomura said.

“We expect a moderate pickup in real GDP growth in 2026, led by the government’s strong push for more progress on infrastructure projects.”

It added that it expects the country to post a current account deficit of 4.1% of GDP this year and 4.4% of GDP next year, wider than the 3.8% ratio in 2024, driven by an increase in capital goods imports amid the government’s infrastructure push and weaker exports due to the US’ tariffs.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can still grow stronger than what Nomura predicts in 2025 and 2026? Do you think the national government should make new economic moves to stimulate the national economy while also attracting new foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine economy grew by 5.4% in 1st quarter of 2025

May 12, 2025May 8, 2025carlocarrasco

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.4% in the first quarter of this year, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of GMA Network. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy expanded faster in the first three months of 2025 amid the growth seen in services, industry, and agriculture sectors, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) —the value of goods and services produced in a period— grew faster by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, higher than the upwardly revised growth rate of 5.3% in the last quarter of 2024, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa reported at a press conference in Quezon City on Thursday.

This was also the fastest GDP growth rate seen since the third quarter of 2024, albeit slower than the 5.9% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2024.

At constant prices, the economy reached a value of P5.477 trillion during the period, up 5.4% from P5.196-trillion GDP seen in the same quarter last year.

Department of Economy, Planning and Development Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon said the country’s GDP needs to increase by 6.2% in the remaining quarters of 2025 to hit at least the lower-end of the. government’s growth target of 6% to 7% for the year.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can still grow by 6% by the end of the year? Do you think election spending will add a lot to economic growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Proposed measure to increase tax on capital gains withdrawn by DOF

May 5, 2025April 30, 2025carlocarrasco

In recent times, the Department of Finance (DOF) has withdrawn the proposed measure on increasing taxes on capital gains pointing to certain economic factors according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of GMA News. Some parts in boldface…

The proposed measure increasing taxes on capital gains, donor’s, and estate to 10% from 6% has been withdrawn as the Department of Finance (DOF) determined that there would be “no need” for additional revenue measures, citing the government’s robust fiscal position.

In a statement, Albay 2nd District Representative and House Ways and Means chairman Joey Sarte Salceda disclosed that the DOF pulled out the Government Revenues Optimization through the Wealth Tax Harmonization (GROWTH) Bill, which proposed a hike in tax rate for capital gains, donor taxes, and estate taxes.

The bill is the Marcos administration’s tweaked version of the Passive Income and Financial Intermediary Taxation Act (PIFITA), proposed by the Duterte administration as Package 4 of its Comprehensive Tax Reform Program (CTRP).

Citing a letter from the DOF, dated April 29, Salceda said the Finance Department is withdrawing the proposed measure, citing “stronger-than-expected revenue collections, a double-digit growth rate in tax collections, and steady progress toward the government’s fiscal consolidation goals.”

In a separate statement, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said that “given our current strong fiscal performance, these are not needed at this time.”

“The government is properly managing its finances, ensuring that public needs are met without burdening the citizenry with new taxes,” he added.

‘More than sufficient’ – In particular, the Finance chief cited the 13.55% growth in total tax collections to P931.5 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

Broken down, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) posted P690.4 billion in collections, up 16.67% year-on-year; while the Bureau of Customs saw a 5.72% growth in collection to P231.4 billion during the same period.

“At this point, current revenues are more than sufficient to support our expenditure requirements. We are meeting our obligations, funding key programs, and growing the economy without having to impose new taxes on our kababayan,” Recto said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think it was just right for the DOF to withdraw the measure? Do you thinking hiking capital gains tax, donor taxes and estate taxes are needed to ensure economic growth for the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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ANZ Research says Philippine economic growth for 2025 could slow down to 5%

May 2, 2025April 28, 2025carlocarrasco

By pointing to the trade policies of the United States and weak private spending, ANZ Research says that the economic growth of the Philippines for 2025 could slow down to 5%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. ANZ also downgraded its growth forecasts for many other Asian economies.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth is expected to slow to 5% this year due to the fallout from the Trump administration’s trade policy and weak private spending, ANZ Research said.

In its latest Asia Insight report, ANZ cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the Philippines to 5% this year from 5.7% previously. It also lowered its 2026 GDP projection to 5.5% from 6% previously.

Both forecasts would fall short of the 6-8% growth target set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee from this year to the next.

“Our new forecasts incorporate our expectations of direct and indirect impact of tariffs, bilateral trade agreements between the US and individual economies, revised growth estimates for mainland China and the US and potential policy response,” ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur said.

The downward revisions constitute a “durable shock to regional growth as US tariffs imply a long-term reduction in global trade,” he added.

President Donald J. Trump slapped reciprocal tariffs on most of its trading partners earlier this month but suspended these higher tariffs for 90 days. Only the baseline 10% tariff remains in effect.

The Philippines was hit with a 17% reciprocal tariff, though this was the second lowest in Southeast Asia, just after Singapore.

“It is likely that some Asian economies will negotiate down or even do away with the April 2 reciprocal tariffs owing to the potential damage to US growth,” Mr. Mathur said. “Even so, the uncertainty around US trade policies will constrain business activity, including hiring and investment.”

ANZ slashed its growth projection for Asia, excluding China and India, to 2.9% this year from 3.4% previously. It also trimmed its 2026 forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% previously.

ANZ also downgraded its GDP projections for all countries it covers, namely India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Vietnam.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines will be able to negotiate with the United States on tariff and trade matters soon?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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