Tag: GDP growth

UA&P Sees Stronger Q3 Economic Growth for the Philippines Despite Trump Tariffs

UA&P Sees Stronger Q3 Economic Growth for the Philippines Despite Trump Tariffs

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As far as the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) is concerned, the economy of the Philippines will still grow stronger in the 3rd quarter by 5.8% despite the 19% Trump tariffs, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth may pick up in the third quarter despite higher US tariffs and “milder” typhoons, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said.

“Despite the Trump tariffs, milder typhoon season will help accelerate GDP expansion in Q3 to 5.8%, given a low base in 2024,” it said in its latest The Market Call released on Friday.

If realized, this would be faster than 5.2% in the third quarter of 2024 and 5.5% print in the second quarter. This forecast is also within the government’s revised 5.5% to 6.5% target this year.

“Consumer spending remains strong, aided by low inflation but limited by new US taxes on OFW (overseas Filipino Worker) remittances,” UA&P said.

Inflation cooled to a near six-year low of 0.9% in July as utilities and food costs continued to ease. This brought the seven-month average to 1.7%, slightly below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target band.

UA&P said government infrastructure spending may also regain momentum in the third quarter. This was after state spending slumped due to the 45-day election ban on public works spending from March 28 to May 12.

UA&P said residential construction will remain subdued due to elevated policy and interest rates.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 125 basis points (bps) since it began its easing cycle in August last year.  The policy rate now stands at 5.25%.

UA&P said the US dollar rate will “move either way” depending on rate cuts by the BSP and the US Federal Reserve.

“The peso-dollar rate has a fundamental depreciation bias although it will depend much on extent and timing of policy rate cuts by BSP and the Fed,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to grow stronger in the 3rd quarter even though the 19% Trump tariffs are already in effect? Do you see any signs of Philippine exports to America slowing down already?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Philippine Economy Grew by 5.5% in 2nd Quarter of 2025

Philippine Economy Grew by 5.5% in 2nd Quarter of 2025

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The economy of the Philippines expanded by 5.5% during the 2nd quarter of 2025, according to a GMA Network news report. Among the factors are strong 2nd quarter gains by the agriculture, forestry, fishing, industry and services sectors.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the GMA News. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy grew marginally quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2025 amid the growth seen in services, agriculture, and industry sectors, and posted a deceleration from the same period last year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of goods and services produced in a period — grew slightly faster by 5.5% in the April to June 2025 compared to the 5.4% growth seen in the January to March 2025 period, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa reported at a press conference in Quezon City on Thursday.

The second quarter GDP growth was the fastest in four quarters, however, it was still slower than the 6.5% growth rate in the same period in 2024.

All major economic sectors posted annual growth during the quarter — agriculture, forestry, and fishing with 7.0%, industry with 2.1%, and services with 6.9%.

The PSA attributed the year-on-year growth to wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles with 5.1%; public administration and defense, and compulsory social security with 12.8%; and financial and insurance activities with 5.6%.

Fixed capital investments climbed 2.6%, led by private construction which grew 11.2%, and investments in durable equipment up 10.6%.

Government spending posted an 8.7% growth rate during the quarter, slower than the 18.7% seen in the first quarter, which Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan attributed to the election spending ban.

“We expect to maintain that momentum in the spending side. I think that the next half, the second half of the year, you should see improvements in the construction, public construction spending,” he said in a briefing.

While the election spending ban hit government spending, officials said the campaigns boosted household spending which grew by 9.5%, faster than the 5.29% in the previous quarter, and the 5.4% in the second quarter of 2024.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to accelerate to achieve 6% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the entire year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Nomura says America’s 19% tariff may cut Philippines GDP growth slightly

Nomura says America’s 19% tariff may cut Philippines GDP growth slightly

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In the middle of mixed reactions towards the United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine exports, Nomura Global Markets Research stated that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be cut by 0.4%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Recently, US President Donald Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., met in the White House which resulted in the new tariff.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE United States’ 19% tariff on Philippine goods could cut the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.4 percentage point (ppt), Nomura Global Markets Research said.

In a report, Nomura said the US tariff of 19% on Philippine goods is “fairly high” and poses downside risks to growth.

“We estimate the direct effects could reduce our baseline GDP growth forecasts by a still-substantial 0.4 ppt in the Philippines.”

Nomura said this projection is “relatively substantial” compared to its baseline growth forecasts of 5.3% and 5.6% for this year and 2026, respectively.

“This is partly because we assigned 10% as the level where the reciprocal tariff rate could settle, on the assumption that the Philippines is a strong ally of the US and is not a third country for transshipments,” Nomura said.

“As it turns out, despite the visit to Washington by President Marcos and both sides reiterating the need for a strong partnership, the tariff was still set at 19%, which is even higher than the ‘Liberation Day’ level of 17%.”

Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. met with US President Donald J. Trump at the White House in Washington, DC. Mr. Trump announced a 19% tariff would be imposed on Philippine goods, which will take effect starting Aug. 1.

“The trade ‘deals’ therefore represent upside surprises in terms of tariff rates, especially for the Philippines,” Nomura said.

“As a result, if implemented and these tariff rates are sustained, these will likely further weigh on growth in both countries relative to our current baseline forecasts.”

The government expects GDP to grow by 5.5-6.5% this year, lower than its previous target of 6-8%.

“While these ballpark estimates make sense to us, uncertainty remains high and these are ‘only’ taking into account the direct effects on these ASEAN countries’ exports to the US,” Nomura said.

These estimates do not account for sectoral tariffs, such as in semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are currently exempted, it added.

“But as our US team highlights, the risk is these could be set higher, though some countries could be exempted, adding to the uncertainty. As mentioned above, the details of the trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines are still limited.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines is in a serious disadvantage with the American tariff of 19% imposed on the nation’s exports? Do you think the Philippine economy still has strong momentum to reach 6% GDP growth by the end of this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco