Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) – Page 2

Asian Development Bank Sees Philippine Economy Growing Less Than 6% This Year

October 9, 2025September 30, 2025carlocarrasco

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicted that the economy of the Philippines will achieve growth of less than 6% this year, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA News report. Some parts in boldface…

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its economic growth outlook for the Philippines this year on the back of sustained domestic demand despite global trade uncertainties.

In the September 2025 edition of its flagship Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the ADB said it forecasts the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at 5.6% for 2025, maintained from the ADO July edition’s outlook.

The multilateral lender said that “robust domestic demand amid subdued inflation will support Philippine economic growth this year and the next.”

“The Philippines’ growth outlook remains resilient amid a global environment of shifting trade and investment policies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties,” said ADB country director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries.

“Though these uncertainties pose increased risk, we see strong domestic demand anchoring growth, with sustained investments and an accommodative monetary policy supporting the economy’s expansion,” said Jeffries.

For 2026, the ADB said it sees the Philippine economy to grow at 5.7% — the same level as the country’s actual growth rate in 2024.

Nonetheless, the bank said the country is expected to remain a bright spot in Southeast Asia, “with the second highest GDP expansion in the region.”

Moreover, the ADB said it forecasts inflation to ease at 1.8% this year, before rising to 3% in 2026 to return to the government’s target range of 2% to 4%. The latest 2025 inflation forecast is lower from July’s 2.2%.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the economy of the Philippine does not have any more momentum to grow at least 6% this year? Are you concerned that the flood control projects scandal and government corruption here in the Philippines will turn away foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Weaker Business Sentiment In The Philippines

October 7, 2025September 30, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) conduct its own survey which revealed that business sentiment in the Philippines became less optimistic during the 3^rd quarter, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine businesses turned less optimistic about the economy in the third quarter amid bad weather and sluggish demand during “ghost month,” a survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Based on its latest Business Expectations Survey, the overall confidence index (CI) for businesses fell to 23.2% in the third quarter, down from the 28.8% in the second quarter and the 32.9% in the same quarter last year.

A positive CI indicates that more respondents are optimistic than pessimistic. However, this was the lowest CI seen since the 23.9% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. The business confidence index has been on a decline for three consecutive quarters.

“Philippine businesses were less optimistic about the economy in the third quarter of the year,” the BSP said in a statement. “Their dampened confidence was primarily attributed to the slack in demand during the ‘ghost month’ and the onset of the rainy and typhoon season.”

This year, “ghost month,” the seventh month in the Chinese lunar calendar, ran from Aug. 23 to Sept. 21. Some investors avoid making big investments or decisions during this period.

The country also experienced heavy rains and flooding brought by several tropical storms and the southwest monsoon from late July to early August.

“Global headwinds, such as higher US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and weaker foreign demand, also weighed on business confidence,” the BSP said. The US began imposing a 19% tariff on goods from the Philippines on Aug. 7.

At the same time, business confidence for the fourth quarter improved to 49.5% from 39.3% previously, as a surge in consumer spending is usually seen ahead of the holidays. The overall business outlook for the next 12 months eased to 48.1% from 51% the previous quarter.

“Despite the lower year-ahead CI, it remained positive, reflecting businesses’ continued optimism about near-term economic prospects,” the BSP said.

Businesses surveyed also see the peso appreciating against the US dollar in the fourth quarter and over the next 12 months but expect inflation to accelerate further.

“Firms also expect inflation over the next 12 months to remain within the National Government’s target range, indicating firmly anchored business inflation expectations. Within-target inflation supports investments and job creation,” the BSP said.

Businesses expect inflation to have settled at 2.1% in the third quarter, and picking up to 2.3% next quarter, and 2.4% in the next 12 months.

The central bank surveyed 1,523 firms nationwide, 580 of which are in the National Capital Region (NCR) and 943 in areas outside NCR, from July 4 to Aug. 17.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will somehow slow down in the 4^th quarter?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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S&P Global Ratings Says Philippine Economy Will Grow Only 5.6% This Year

October 3, 2025September 24, 2025carlocarrasco

2025 continues to look rough for the Philippines. A lot of people are angry over government corruption and the flood control projects scandal investigation is only adding fuel to the fire. When it comes to economic growth, S&P Global Ratings says the economy of the Philippines will grow by only 5.6% this year, according to a Philippine Star news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Philippine Star news report. Some parts in boldface…

S&P Global Ratings has trimmed its growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.6 percent this year from its earlier 5.9 percent estimate, citing subdued private consumption and investment alongside persistent global uncertainties.

The downgrade reflects weaker-than-expected momentum in the first half, when Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4 percent. This was faster than many economies in Asia, but still below trend and short of expectations.

“Private consumption growth, investment and household confidence are still relatively subdued,” S&P economist Vince Conti told The STAR.

“We expect that both global and domestic uncertainty would continue to weigh on investment growth in the near term,” Conti said.

S&P’s latest projections show the country’s GDP growth will hit the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent target for 2025.

The credit watcher also sees growth picking up to 5.8 percent in 2026, though this remains below the government’s more ambitious six to seven percent goal for next year.

Conti noted, however, that the country’s reliance on external demand comes more from services rather than goods trade, which provides a degree of resilience against heightened global trade frictions.

“This will partially mitigate the impact of the elevated trade tensions,” he said. “On the positive side, with inflation low and likely to remain under control in the next few years, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has room to continue its easing path to support growth.”

S&P expects Philippine inflation to average 1.8 percent in 2025, sharply down from 3.2 percent last year, before rising moderately to three percent in 2026 and 3.3 percent in 2027.

The credit watcher is penciling in around 100 basis points of further policy rate cuts by the BSP between now and end-2026, which could help shore up domestic activity.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines does not have enough momentum to achieve 6% growth this year? Do you think that any rise of inflation will hamper economic growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines Has The Highest Debt Risk In Asia According To New Economic Study

September 27, 2025September 18, 2025carlocarrasco

With its recent economic study, Oxford Economics declared that the Philippines has the highest debt risk among its Asian neighbors and the biggest contributor to the risk is the nation’s limited internal policy space, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

Constrained fiscal and monetary policy space, along with increasing reliance on foreign debt, has placed the Philippines at the highest sovereign risk, or the greatest risk of failing to meet its debt obligations, among its Asian peers.

According to a Sept. 10 report by the think tank Oxford Economics, the Philippines recorded the highest sovereign risk score among 12 Asian economies, at 4.5 out of 10. The biggest contributor to this risk is limited internal policy space, referring to the country’s relatively narrow fiscal and monetary flexibility compared with its peers.

The second-largest factors are external imbalances—measured by current account and trade deficits—along with the size of the economy, and institutional risks. Other contributors include political risks, the business environment, vulnerabilities in the banking sector, and corporate debt.

India ranked second in sovereign risk, followed by China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Meanwhile, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were assessed to have the lowest risk levels.

Sovereign risk refers to the possibility that a government may default on its debt by failing to meet interest or principal payments.

“On the fiscal front, the stubborn bias towards fiscal conservatism is likely to persist, following the broad unwinding of pandemic-era discretionary support,” Oxford Economics lead economist Alexandra Hermann said.

However, given that “around half of the region’s economies are likely to fall short of their official growth estimates this year, and the remainder only just meeting stated targets, the political economy of growth underperformance could tilt authorities towards further incremental easing going into 2026.”

For the Philippines, the government is targeting a growth rate of 5.5 to 6.5 percent for 2025—a downscaled version of the more ambitious goal of six to eight percent previously.

While governments in Asia, including the Philippines, could implement measures to soften the impact of weaker exports, the think tank noted that economic growth would still be slower than normal. Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5.4 percent in the first half of the year.

“On the monetary side, most central banks have room to cut further as real rates are still elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms, despite pre-emptive cuts this year particularly in emerging Asia,” Hermann said.

To recall, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) aggressively hiked lending rates to as high as 6.5 percent in 2024 to tame raging increases in consumer prices brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Hermann expects the Philippine central bank alongside other Southeast Asian central banks to further reduce key borrowing costs by as much as three quarters of a point by early next year, similar to what they did previously during economic slowdowns.

“We anticipate an additional 25-75 bps [basis points] of rate reductions across India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, completing an easing cycle by early 2026 that is broadly consistent in scale with prior non-recessionary slowdowns,” Hermann said.

Should the BSP reduce the key policy rate by up to 75 bps though the first half of 2026, the current five percent could be brought down to 4.25 percent. For this year alone, the BSP has so far lowered rates by a cumulative 75 bps, citing still subdued inflation and risks to slower growth.

In another Sept. 10 report of the think tank, the BSP and other central banks are seen to be “hawkish despite low inflation.” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. earlier signaled a still accommodative stance but now less dovish.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to the recent developments? Do you think the Philippines will be able to reduce its sovereign risk? What do you think should be done about the debt risk the country has? Do you think the high debt risk could turn off foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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UA&P Sees Stronger Q3 Economic Growth for the Philippines Despite Trump Tariffs

September 1, 2025August 25, 2025carlocarrasco

As far as the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) is concerned, the economy of the Philippines will still grow stronger in the 3^rd quarter by 5.8% despite the 19% Trump tariffs, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE economic growth may pick up in the third quarter despite higher US tariffs and “milder” typhoons, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said.

“Despite the Trump tariffs, milder typhoon season will help accelerate GDP expansion in Q3 to 5.8%, given a low base in 2024,” it said in its latest The Market Call released on Friday.

If realized, this would be faster than 5.2% in the third quarter of 2024 and 5.5% print in the second quarter. This forecast is also within the government’s revised 5.5% to 6.5% target this year.

“Consumer spending remains strong, aided by low inflation but limited by new US taxes on OFW (overseas Filipino Worker) remittances,” UA&P said.

Inflation cooled to a near six-year low of 0.9% in July as utilities and food costs continued to ease. This brought the seven-month average to 1.7%, slightly below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target band.

UA&P said government infrastructure spending may also regain momentum in the third quarter. This was after state spending slumped due to the 45-day election ban on public works spending from March 28 to May 12.

UA&P said residential construction will remain subdued due to elevated policy and interest rates.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 125 basis points (bps) since it began its easing cycle in August last year. The policy rate now stands at 5.25%.

UA&P said the US dollar rate will “move either way” depending on rate cuts by the BSP and the US Federal Reserve.

“The peso-dollar rate has a fundamental depreciation bias although it will depend much on extent and timing of policy rate cuts by BSP and the Fed,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to grow stronger in the 3^rd quarter even though the 19% Trump tariffs are already in effect? Do you see any signs of Philippine exports to America slowing down already?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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57% of retail payments in the Philippines are digital

July 15, 2025July 8, 2025carlocarrasco

There is no denying that consumers here in the Philippines prefer to use digital methods of paying over cash as more than 57% of retail transactions by volume are digital, according to a business news report by Malay Business Insight. The details were revealed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from Malaya Business Insight’s news report. Some parts in boldface…

More Filipinos are going cashless and transacting in e-money or digital cash as the most preferred payment for retail accounts, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said in a report on Monday.

Based on the latest BSP status report, digital payments now account for 57.4 percent of retail transactions by volume as of end-2024, up from 52.8 percent in 2023. In terms of value, e-money’s share also increased to 59 percent from 55.3 percent.

The figures surpassed the government’s target range of between 52 and 54 percent as set under the Philippine Development Plan 2023–2028.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said the steady year-on-year growth “reinforces the momentum built after surpassing the 2023 digitalization target of 50 percent for volume.”

He also said the upward trajectory “reflects the long-term impact of market developments, policy initiatives, and the growing trust and familiarity of Filipinos with digital payment options.”

Remolona said the BSP will continue to harness technology and finance to connect markets and ensure that “every Filipino becomes part of the formal financial system.”

They will do this by empowering banks, non-banks and the fintech sector to leverage innovation in designing financial products that are not only accessible but also more responsive to the needs of consumers.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? When it comes to retail transactions, do you prefer to pay with cash or with a digital payment method? Do you have any e-wallets (electronic wallets) right now?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BSP Calls for Anti-Counterfeiting Campaigns in Malls, Supermarkets and Wet Markets

July 1, 2025June 26, 2025carlocarrasco

Counterfeiting of money is a hot issue right now in the Philippines as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) called for targeted anti-counterfeiting campaigns in specific places of trade and commerce, according to a business news report by the Manila Bulletin.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is calling for targeted anti-counterfeiting campaigns in shopping malls, supermarkets, and wet markets after these locations emerged as the main sources of fake banknotes and coins recovered last year.

Data from the 2024 BSP annual report published in June showed that counterfeits were “frequently recovered in areas with high foot traffic, such as shopping malls (27.2 percent), supermarkets (25.9 percent), and wet markets (20.9 percent).”

“This highlights the need for targeted anti-counterfeiting campaigns in these areas,” the report said.

According to the central bank report, the ₱1,000 paper banknote was the most counterfeited bill, accounting for 59.9 percent or the majority of documented counterfeits last year. The ₱500 paper banknote was the second-most counterfeited bill at 19.3 percent.

Notably, there were a very low number of cases of counterfeit ₱1,000 polymer banknotes. Recording only three “low-quality” counterfeits in 2024, the BSP noted that the three-year-old ₱1,000 polymer banknote has shown “resilience” against counterfeiting.

“These counterfeit polymer banknotes were printed on paper, with the transparent portions cut out and substituted with substandard plastic, making them easily detectable by the public,” the BSP said.

Fake coins also dropped significantly by 87.8 percent last year, noting that there were fewer than one fake coin for every one million real coins in circulation. Most counterfeit coins were leftovers from previous years, mostly five-peso coins from the BSP coin series.

The BSP attributed this substantial decline in counterfeited banknotes and coins to the “enhanced security features of the New Generation Currency (NGC), including the micro-printed details and laser-engraved designs.”

These added features made it more challenging for fraudsters to copy and reproduce the currencies, the BSP said.

Most counterfeiting involved inkjet printing, accounting for 79.7 percent of the recorded cases. Laser printing was next at 12.6 percent, while tampered security threads accounted for 7.6 percent.

When it comes to location, most fake currencies were found in Metro Manila, at 52.2 percent, followed by the provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon (collectively known as CALABARZON), at 12.2 percent.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think counterfeiting in the Philippines will get worse over the next twelve months? Do you think the local supermarket, wet market or shopping mall are hot spots of fake banknotes and coins? Who do you think is responsible for the rise of counterfeit money? Do you think the BSP’s research about counterfeiting is accurate?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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DILG urges LGUs to adopt cashless payments for government transactions

May 21, 2025May 17, 2025carlocarrasco

By emphasizing transparence, efficiency and public conveniences as key factors, the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) urged local government units (LGUs) nationwide to adopt cashless payments for government transactions, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The DILG clarified, however, that the traditional modes of payments must still be accepted by LGUs.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

The Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) called on the local government units (LGUs) on Saturday, May 17, to promote electronic payment and collection systems as an alternative to the traditional mode of payment in government transactions.

The DILG memorandum circular encourages the LGUs to implement EPCS for collecting local taxes, fees, and other charges, in accordance with Executive Order No. 170, series of 2022 on the use of digital payments for government transactions.

Further, the DILG asserted that digital payments improve transparency, efficiency and public convenience with the LGUs being encouraged to offer secure, accessible digital options, ensure payment channels are user-friendly, and partner with authorized providers, including government servicing banks.

“All efforts must align with the National Retail Payment System Framework and the Data Privacy Act,’’ the DILG emphasized.

“LGUs are also expected to define clear procedures for issuing electronic invoices and billing notices, consistent with guidelines from the Commission on Audit and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas,’’ it added.

While promoting digitalization, the DILG clarified that the LGUs must still accept cash and other traditional modes of payment to ensure accessibility for all.

To support its full implementation, the DILG prodded the LGUs to pass enabling ordinances and issue local policies.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? When it comes to doing transactions with your local government, do you prefer to pay in cash or use digital methods such as e-wallets? Is your local government already accepting payments in electronic form?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BSP to temporarily suspend coin deposit machines project starting June 17, 2025

May 20, 2025May 20, 2025carlocarrasco

By citing their intention to review how to re-circulate idle coins, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) announced that its coin deposit machines project will be temporarily suspended in certain shopping malls starting June 17, 2025, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will temporarily suspend the operation of coin deposit machines (CoDMs) to review how to re-circulate idle coins.

In an advisory Friday, the BSP said the CoDMs currently installed in select malls in Greater Manila area would be suspended starting June 17.

“The BSP is implementing the temporary suspension to conduct a thorough review of how to re-circulate idle coins and serve Filipinos’ coin exchange needs even better,” the BSP said.

Following the review, the BSP will relaunch the coin deposit machines as part of its commitment to enhancing its coin recirculation program.

Since June 2013, CoDMs processed almost PHP1.5 billion worth of coins. The BSP said the public may deposit fit coins in banks where they have an account.

Persons with no bank accounts may exchange fit, unfit, and mutilated coins in banks and other financial institutions that have agreed to serve as currency exchange centers under the BSP Piso Caravan program.

The BSP said unfit coins may be presented for exchange at any bank as part of their duties to promptly remove unfit currency from circulation.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Were you able to deposit your loose change at any BSP coin deposit machine over the past six months? Do you hope that the coin deposit machine project suspension will not last more than 30 days?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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More than P1.37 billion in coins deposited through BSP’s machines

April 2, 2025March 25, 2025carlocarrasco

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) revealed online recently that the overall collection of its coin deposit machines (CoDMs) has surpassed P1.37 billion The latest statistics are accurate of as March 17, 2025.

Based on the latest statistics, a total of P1,372,622,853.22 (4.92% higher than the previous count of P1,308,208,203.18)in coins got deposited into BSP machines on 311,858 transactions from customers. In terms of physical quantity, 339,846,868 coins were deposited.

Doing the math on the latest statistics, customers averaged P4,401.4354 per transaction at the machines (compared to the March 15, 2025 average of P4,368.6012 per transaction). As for the grand total Peso amount divided by the number of coins deposited, the average is P4.0389 per coin deposited (previous average was P4.011 per coin deposited)

When it comes to the number of coins involved with each transaction, 339,846,868 coins divided by 311,858 transactions resulted in an average of 1,089.7488 coins per transaction (a slight increase compared to the previous average was 1,089.2659 coins per transaction).

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Whenever you deposited your coins, do you transfer the value to GCash or Maya, or convert the value into shopping vouchers? How many BSP coin deposit machines are located in your city right now?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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