The 3rd quarter growth of only 4% the Philippines achieved has been on people’s minds a lot lately. As such, the country is at risk of falling behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia in terms of economic growth and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
The Philippine economy is at risk of further falling behind its Southeast Asian neighbors, an economist said, noting it may take two years to catch up with Vietnam and up to 70 years to catch up with Singapore.
“(T)he Philippines could find itself lagging behind if alleged public spending issues continue to divert attention and resources away from the structural reforms needed to accelerate economic development,” Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said in a commentary on Wednesday.
In the third quarter, Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4%, its slowest pace in over four years amid slower household and public infrastructure spending as the flood control scandal dampened investor and con-sumer sentiment.
In the nine months to September, GDP growth averaged 5%, putting the government’s 5.5%-6.5% full-year growth target further out of reach.
“The Philippine economy is growing, but not enough to close the economic gap with other countries,” Mr. Neri said.
He noted the Philippine GDP per capita is lower compared with other economies in the region. Citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, he said the Philippines’ GDP per capita stood at $4,078 in 2024.
“At the current growth rate, it would take the Philippines two years to catch up with the GDP per capita of Vietnam, 4 years with Indonesia, 14 years with Thailand, 26 years with Malaysia, and 70 years with Singapore, assuming their incomes remain stagnant. In reality, their GDP per capita continues to grow, which means the gap could persist or even widen,” Mr. Neri said.
The Philippines lagged behind Singapore which had a GDP per capita of $90,674 in 2024, followed by South Korea ($36,128), Japan ($32,498), China ($13,312), Malaysia ($12,540), Thailand ($7,491), Indonesia ($4,958) and Vietnam ($4,535).
“Before the pandemic, the Philippines had a higher GDP per capita than Vietnam, but has since been overtaken. At current trends, it would take the Philippines two years to catch up with Vietnam, but that gap could increase to 13 years by 2044,” Mr. Neri said.
The BPI economist said the Philippines needs structural reforms to accelerate growth in order to close the widening gap with its neighbors.
“The current economic model of the country is not enough, as shown by the country’s inability to grow faster than 6% in recent years,” he said.
Mr. Neri said the economy has been “too reliant” on consumer spending, driven by overseas Filipino worker (OFW) remittances and the business process outsourcing industry.
“There is a need to diversify its sources of growth. The economy must improve in terms of production, especially in agriculture and manufacturing, as they will allow the economy to be more self-sufficient and to reach foreign markets. These industries have been critical to Vietnam’s success and could play a similar role for the Philippines,” he said.
However, Mr. Neri said implementing these reforms will be hard if the government lacks focus.
“Public spending issues divert fiscal resources and policymaking focus away from long-term development priorities. Efforts to strengthen safeguards against potential issues in government spending are essential, enabling the country to work on structural reforms that could improve the economy,” he said.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think should the government do to accelerate economic growth?
You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.
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