The World Bank (WB) recently announced that it sees inflation in the Philippines likely to go down this year and fall within the target range set by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…
PHILIPPINE INFLATION is likely to slow this year to fall within the central bank’s target range, but higher transport charges and domestic rice production pose upside risks, the World Bank said.
In its latest monthly update, the World Bank said that the entry of more rice imports under lower tariffs should help keep inflation within the government’s 2-4% target.
“Inflation resumed its downward trend in August and is on track to fall within target this year,” the Washington-based lender said.
The consumer price index (CPI) eased to 3.3% in August from 4.4% in July. Inflation averaged 3.6% in the first seven months.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects inflation to average 3.4% this year.
“The balance of risks to the outlook has shifted toward the downside given expected reductions in rice prices as more imports arrive under the reduced tariff regime,” the World Bank said.
An executive order cutting tariffs on rice to 15% from 35% took effect in July. This helped rice inflation ease to 14.7% in August from 20.9% in July.
However, the World Bank said higher transport and electricity charges, as well as possible global oil and food price shocks still provide upside risks to the inflation outlook.
“Domestic rice production and prices also remain vulnerable with the La Niña weather phenomenon expected to bring more rainfall and intense typhoons in the remaining months of the year,” World Bank said.
Meanwhile, the World Bank said recent external and domestic developments have given the BSP more space for policy easing.
“Peso appreciation, driven by a wider US interest rate differential, supports domestic disinflation. This gives more room for further normalization of domestic monetary policy,” it said.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation in the Philippines will continue to slow down as the end of 2024 approaches?
Citing some factors, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) sees faster gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Philippine economy in the 2nd half of this year which should result in a full 2024 growth rate of 6% to 7%, according to a BusinessWorld new report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
PHILIPPINE gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second semester could be faster than the 6% average in the first half amid easing inflation and lower policy rates, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.
“Now, with inflation lower, with policy rates lower, with the labor market continuing to be robust, I think we would see an even better second half than in the first half,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of a Senate hearing on Wednesday.
In the second quarter, GDP expanded by 6.3%, bringing the first-half growth to 6%.
“We are expecting 6-7% (GDP growth) for the full year, and I think that the likelihood that we’ll achieve that is now very high,” Mr. Balisacan said.
However, even as inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.3% in August, Mr. Balisacan noted that the economy remains sensitive to inflationary pressures.
Year to date, inflation averaged 3.6%, settling within the 2-4% target range of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
The inflation downtrend has allowed the BSP to begin its easing cycle with its first rate cut in nearly four years last August. The Monetary Board lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% from the over 17-year high of 6.25% previously.
Mr. Balisacan noted the impact of lower policy rates “is not almost instantaneous.”
Despite this, the Philippine and US central banks’ expected easing path should help boost investment activity and support growth, he said.
“Especially now that the expectations everywhere with the Fed expected to decrease (interest rates)… then, there is now greater stimulus for us to continue lowering the policy rates,” he said. “With the business community hearing that, they are likely to rethink their investment plans.”
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier signaled another 25-bp cut in the fourth quarter. The last two Monetary Board meetings for the year are scheduled on Oct. 17 and Dec. 19.
Meanwhile, GDP growth is expected to settle within the government’s target range this year, but may fall short of the growth goals in the next two years, according to the latest forecasts from the BSP’s Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines.
Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to achieve GDP growth of 7% for 2024?
As far as analysts are concerned, the foreign investment outlook for the Philippines is improving and should result in more investments, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
LOWER INTEREST RATES will help drive the entry of more foreign direct and portfolio investments into the Philippines, analysts said.
“The outlook for foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in the Philippines appears promising, with current trends suggesting the country could meet or potentially exceed the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) targets,” Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in a Viber message.
The BSP expects to record FDI net inflows of $9.5 billion this year. For foreign portfolio investments, it forecasts $3.1 billion in net inflows by yearend.
“The BSP’s forecast for the year sounds reasonable, as it wouldn’t be too far a stretch, with that sort of level of annual FDI coming into the Philippines almost consistently over this period, barring the coronavirus-hit year in 2020,” Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said in an e-mail.
In the January-to-May period, FDI net inflows jumped by 15.8% year on year to $4.024 billion, data from the BSP showed.
Meanwhile, short-term foreign investments yielded a net inflow of $1.46 billion in the January-July period, surging from the $157.3-million net inflows in the same period a year ago.
FDIs are considered long-term investments, while portfolio investments or “hot money” are seen as more fickle due to the ease by which these funds enter and leave the economy.
Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said the BSP’s investment targets are doable amid easing interest rates.
“Offering attractive rates will be the key. All around will be declining key rates, thus, offering sensible investments now will lock in gains for prospective investors. I would like to believe that there is time,” he added.
Mr. Roces said the further reduction in policy rates this year and next year “should stimulate investment activity, particularly for FDI, by making borrowing more attractive.”
At its August meeting, the Monetary Board cut rates for the first time in nearly four years or since November 2020. It reduced borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps), bringing the benchmark rate to 6.25% from the previous over 17-year high of 6.5%.
The central bank could also deliver another 25-bp rate hike in the fourth quarter, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said earlier.
Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you agree with the findings of the economic analysts pointing to improving foreign investment outlook for the nation?
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
GOTIANUN-LED Filinvest Hospitality Corp. (FHC) is aiming to add close to 2,000 new rooms in the next five years, a company official said.
“We’re looking at adding close to 2,000 keys. It’s more about the quality of the keys and the spread as opposed to the number,” FHC First Senior Vice-President Francis Nathaniel C. Gotianun told reporters on the sidelines of the Shareholders’ Association of the Philippines’ third general membership meeting in Makati City on Tuesday.
“We’re focusing on key tourist destinations across the country. We’re working on a collection of the top spots so when we go out into the international market or even the domestic market, we can sell all the good destinations, whether that be Boracay, Palawan, Bohol, Baguio, or Cebu. We’re trying to catch them all,” he added.
FHC’s hospitality portfolio has about 1,800 keys across seven hotels, ranging from high-end five-star properties under the Crimson brand to Quest hotels and Timberland, which serve the mid-priced leisure markets.
“We’re really focusing on creating a collection of hotels in the right locations so that when we go out into the market, we can sell all the best of the Philippines,” Mr. Gotianun said.
Mr. Gotianun said that FHC is very bullish on the prospects of the country’s tourism sector. He added that the company has a couple of projects to be announced by the end of the year.
“We can really see the tourism numbers starting to come back up, very strong domestic while international is still a little bit below, but we think we’ll catch up,” Mr. Gotianun said.
Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think FHC’s addition of about two thousand new rooms will help the nation’s tourism industry a lot in the years ahead? Do you think our nation still lacks rooms for domestic and foreign tourists?
This is for motorists who have been traveling along the highways without radio frequency identification (RFID) tags or with insufficient load. The Department of Transportation (DOTr) recently announced that it has officially postponed to October 1, 2024 the implementation of new tollway guidelines and fines, according to a BusinessWorld news report. The implementation was supposed to have happened on August 31.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
THE Department of Transportation (DoTr) postponed the implementation of new tollway guidelines, which impose fines on motorists with no radio frequency identification (RFID) tags or insufficient funds on their accounts, to Oct. 1.
“We hope the concerned agencies and tollway operators would use the 30-day deferment to fine-tune expressway operations and further intensify the public information campaign to enable tollway users to comply with the new guidelines,” Transportation Secretary Jaime J. Bautista said in a statement on Tuesday.
The new rules, under Joint Memorandum Circular No. 2024-001, were supposed to be enforced starting Aug. 31.
Under the rules, all motorists passing through expressways without RFID tags or having insufficient balance on their accounts will face penalties starting Aug. 31.
“These revised guidelines should significantly improve traffic along expressways through cashless or contactless toll plazas,” Mr. Bautista said.
The Toll Regulatory Board (TRB) said motorists entering an access highway without RFID tags or electronic toll collection (ETC) device will incur a fine of P1,000 for the first offense, P2,000 for the second offense, and P5,000 for subsequent offenses.
Motorists exiting toll expressways with insufficient account balance will be fined P500 for the first offense, P1,000 for the second offense, and P2,500 for subsequent offenses.
Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Have you been driving regularly on the highways without an RFID tag on your vehicle?
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
LOCAL PROPERTY DEVELOPERS are unfazed by the government’s ban on Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGO), saying that it has minimum or no effect on their office and residential businesses.
“Our direct exposure to POGO is rather limited. Only 1% of our office portfolio is occupied by POGOs,” she said.
“We were never a big POGO locator. It has even gone down over the years. Now, we’re down to 1%. In terms of our sales, we have very little sales to Chinese buyers in general, whether POGO or not,” she added.
Ms. Dy said that ALI conducted checks across its residential buildings following the announcement of the ban and found that only less than 5% are occupied by POGOs or probable POGO employees.
“Our products are not that exposed to the POGO market, either directly in the office or indirectly as tenants for our residential buildings,” she said.
Sy-led conglomerate SM Investments Corp. (SMIC) said the POGO ban also has no impact on their property business. SM Prime Holdings, Inc. develops residential and commercial properties through SM Development Corp.
“Fortunately, (the POGO ban) has no impact to us,” SMIC President and Chief Executive Officer Frederic C. DyBuncio said in a mobile phone message after being asked for comment.
In a recent disclosure, Gotianun-led Filinvest REIT Corp. (FILRT) said that it is not affected by the POGO ban. The company is the real estate investment trust (REIT) of Filinvest Land, Inc.
“FILRT has no POGO exposure and has been free of POGOs since the second quarter of 2022,” it said.
“The company has been deliberately diversifying its tenant mix, with the addition of traditional tenants and coworking locators,” it added.
Luxury property developer Shang Properties, Inc. recently said that the POGO ban will have no effect on the company’s residential business.
“The profile of our buyers is mostly Filipinos. We have a healthy mix of foreign buyers which are not China-based, so we’re not as affected,” Shang Properties Executive Vice-President for Commercial Maria Rochelle S. Diaz said at a recent media briefing.
Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that the nationwide ban on POGOs will not harm the office and residential businesses of all property developers?
In relation to helping the Philippines recover from the many negative effects caused by Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs), the declared nationwide ban on POGOs will help expedite the nation’s exit from the “gray list” of a global financial watchdog that has been monitoring jurisdictions for money laundering risks, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
THE RECENT BAN on Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGO) would help expedite the country’s exit from a global financial watchdog’s “gray list” of jurisdictions under increased monitoring for money laundering risks, the central bank governor said.
“With the POGO ban, we do see a drop in money laundering, which should help us exit the gray list,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BPS) Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told BusinessWorld in a text message.
Last week, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. ordered a total ban on all offshore gaming operations due to their ties to illicit activities such as financial scams, money laundering, prostitution and human trafficking.
Mr. Marcos directed the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. (PAGCOR) to shutter all POGO facilities by the end of the year.
This comes after the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in June kept the Philippines in its gray list for a third straight year.
The global watchdog said the country still needs to address three remaining action items, one of which is “demonstrating that supervisors are using anti-money laundering and counterfinancing of terrorism (AML/CFT) controls to mitigate risks associated with casino junkets.”
Mr. Remolona earlier said the Philippines would likely exit the gray list by next year as it still needs to address the remaining deficiencies cited by the FATF.
From 2018 to 2023, the Philippines was among the top five countries in Southeast Asia with money laundering activities added over the five-year period, earlier data from Moody’s showed.
The number of money laundering events added in the Philippines jumped by 45% from 2022 to 2023, it said.
Chester B. Cabalza, founding president of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, said Mr. Marcos’ order to ban POGOs would encourage more “legitimate” investments to enter into the country.
“With the expected ban, the Philippines may be relieved with the gray list tag and re-strategize for fulfilling more legal and moral entertainment investments for the inclusive growth of the country,” he said via Facebook Messenger.
Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think improvements will be realized gradually over the next twelve months with the ban on POGOs in effect? Do you think that money laundering and crime related to POGOs will go down sharply?
As some of you are already aware, I fully stand with Israel which is very connected with my uncompromising faith in the Lord. I keep on praying to Him for Israel to overwhelm its enemies, rescue the hostages and recover from the effects of the October 7, 2023 terrorist attacks committed by the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. I can assure all of you that nobody from the evil Islamo-Leftist mob, nobody from the pro-Palestine radicals and nobody from any evil society would stop me from supporting and loving Israel.
Now, on with the news…
Recently, Israel’s Ambassador to the Philippines Ilan Flus confirmed that startups from the Jewish state view the Philippines as a viable gateway to Southeast Asian markets, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…
ISRAEL companies, particularly startups, view the Philippines as a viable gateway to Southeast Asian markets, according to the Israeli Ambassador and the head of Israel’s economic mission in Manila.
“Asia is a growing market, and Israeli companies are becoming more and more interested in the markets here,” Ambassador Ilan Fluss told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of an Israeli tech startup pitch event at his residence in Makati City.
“The Philippines is also an entry point to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations,” he added.
He said the embassy is working closely with the Anti-Red Tape Authority to find ways to make it easier to do business in the Philippines.
“I think the important thing for an Israeli company is to have a good Filipino partner that will be able to guide them (in navigating) the economy,” Mr. Fluss said, noting the difficulties posed by bureaucracy.
Tomer Heyvi, head of the Israel Economic Mission to the Philippines, said more Israeli startups are showing interest in seeking investors from the Philippines.
“The Philippines is a rising star and there is a lot of interest from the Israeli companies in trade, commerce, but also, of course, in investment,” he told BusinessWorld.
Mr. Heyvi said there are more than 9,000 startups in Israel that are seeking partnerships to help them break through in various global markets, including the Philippines.
“Every year, we see an increase in the interest of Israeli companies. So, for me, it’s already an indication that they find this market interesting.”
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel, trade between the Philippines and Israel amounted to $532 million last year.
Israel’s Ministry of Economy and Industry said on its website that business services between both countries last year were mostly provided by Israeli startups and tech companies engaged in artificial intelligence-based platforms, cybersecurity, and financial technology solutions.
Very clearly, the ties between Israel and the Philippines remain intact and are in fact gradually gaining strength. The future of economic cooperation between the two nations looks bright even though there are lots of uncertainties happening overseas (armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah, anti-Israel rallies in America and Europe, and so on).
To my fellow Filipinos reading this, I encourage you to accept the truth that Israel is the land God designated specifically for the Jewish people (read Genesis 35:10-12) and His command must be followed without hesitation. If you want to be blessed further by the Lord, do so by loving and blessing the Jewish people (Genesis 12:1-3). I did my part when I was in Israel. Also, let me remind you all that the ties between the Jews and Christians are truly biblical!
We live in a very divided world. Around the world, Leftist forces have been supporting evil forces like the current regime of Iran which is known for supplying and arming the Palestinian terrorists, Hezbollah and other terrorist groups around the Middle East. The Leftists and terrorists always go together and their anti-Semitism is clearly obvious. Hamas, which has long been supported by terrorist state Iran, is purely evil and they are being protected by not only their fellow terrorists but also by mainstream news media outlets who are linked with Leftist forces and people who hate Israel and the Jewish people. Iran even has Hezbollah in Lebanon doing their evil works for them. Beware of the evil union of the Islamo-Left which is wicked deep within.
With all that said, I encourage you all to pray to the Lord God in support of Israel and believe that He will guide the Israeli forces to another victory which means finishing off Hamas, crushing Hezbollah and forcing Iran and its terror proxies to give up. Read Joshua 11:1-20 in the Holy Bible for relevance and truth. Pray to the Lord to support Israel, its government officials, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and other stakeholders.
In light of the recent news that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.7% during the 1st quarter of 2024, economic analysts stated that growth should be more than 6% per quarter over the next three quarters in order to meet the set target of the year, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY should expand by more than 6% in the next three quarters to meet the government’s growth target this year, analysts said.
“The Philippines needs to grow almost 6.1% for the remaining three quarters to reach 6% growth for the entire year, which appears to be a tall order, particularly given the slowdown in household spending in quarter one and the subdued global economic backdrop this year,” Makoto Tsuchiya, an economist at Oxford Economics Japan, said in an e-mail.
Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, slightly faster than the 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 but below the government’s 6-7% target.
University of Asia and the Pacific Senior Economist Cid L. Terosa said GDP growth should average 6-6.5% for the rest of the year to hit the lower end of the government’s target band.
“We had always been expecting growth to stay subdued largely due to the ‘triple threat’ faced by the economy. Elevated inflation, high borrowing costs and fiscal consolidation are the troika of challenges we face,” ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said in an e-mail.
Household spending, which accounts for nearly three-fourths of economic output, rose by 4.6% in the January-to-March, the slowest since the coronavirus pandemic and weaker than 5.3% in the fourth quarter and 6.4% a year ago.
Mr. Tsuchiya said private consumption lagged due to “economic-wide” pressures on spending in the first three months of the year.
“We believe the softening in household consumption was due to a combination of elevated inflation, tepid confidence and the impact of monetary tightening,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.
Inflation quickened to 3.8% in April amid rising food and transport costs. April was the third straight month that inflation accelerated.
Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that inflation will continue to rise and prevent the Philippines from achieving economic growth of 6% for 2024?
In the view of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), headline inflation may ease in the 2nd half of 2024 as a result of the subsiding of pressure on food prices connected with the El Niño effect, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
HEADLINE INFLATION may start easing in the second half of the year as pressure on food prices subsides after the El Niño weather event ends, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) chief said.
“In the second half of this year, we expect the pressure from food prices to diminish, because a big part of that food inflation was imported in the sense that food prices, particularly for staple, have been rising in the world market,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told reporters on the sidelines of a forum on Monday afternoon.
Inflation rose for a second straight month in March to 3.7% amid rising food prices. Food inflation accelerated to 5.7%, its fastest pace in four months, mainly driven by rice.
Rice inflation surged to 24.4% in March, the highest since the 24.6% print in February 2009.
“But for rice, (pressure) is expected to decline, (as prices) reached the peak and will start falling after June as the El Niño phenomenon is waning,” Mr. Balisacan said.
The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to persist until May, but the Philippines may continue to feel its impact until August, the Department of Science and Technology said earlier.
Mr. Balisacan said he is hoping that April inflation would fall within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target band, although oil prices pose a risk.
He noted April inflation will likely be close to the 3.7% print recorded in March.
“[The] 2-4% is still a fighting target. Of course, we are watching closely the developments in the Middle East. If the oil prices would be affected by the development, there would be some pressure for us,” Mr. Balisacan said, refer-ring to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
The local statistics agency will release April inflation data on May 7.
Mr. Balisacan said that economic growth in the first half may be affected if inflation continues to breach the target.
“[It’s] a challenge because domestic consumption, particularly home consumption and investment, are very sensitive to inflation and interest rates,” he said.
Earlier this month, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) revised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target range to 6-7% this year from 6.5-7.5% previously amid geopolitical tensions, price upticks, and trade restrictions.
The local statistics agency is set to release first-quarter GDP data on May 9.
“With food prices starting to come down, that should be good for growth. But of course, if the energy prices continue to rise, then it could affect logistics, distribution, and it could impact food prices too. But we hope that it will not be serious,” Mr. Balisacan said.
Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think headline inflation in the Philippines will go down slightly in the 2nd half of this year? Do you think external economic developments will cause inflation to rise?
Author Carlo Carrasco 