interest rates – Author Carlo Carrasco

Finance Secretary confident with 6% Philippine economic growth this year

March 27, 2025March 19, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto expressed during an interview with Bloomberg TV that the Philippine economy will grow by at least 6% this year and mentioned factors like continued infrastructure spending, low unemployment, the cutting of interest rates and more, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said he is confident that Philippine economic growth would hit at least 6 percent this year.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, Recto said he is banking on more interest rate cuts, infrastructure spending, and election-related spending to boost economic growth.

“We’re pretty confident that we would hit at least a 6 percent growth. The World Bank, the IMF (International Monetary Fund), and many other institutions are saying that we’re on track to 6 percent. Our macroeconomic fundamentals are very good,” said Recto.

“Unemployment is down. The middle class is growing. We’re investing more than 5 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) in infrastructure. We have elections also right now, and during elections, there’s more spending, so we’re pretty confident we hit at the very least 6 percent this year.

He said with inflation settling within the government’s 2 percent to 4 percent target range, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has room to further reduce policy rates, which in turn, would boost consumer spending.

“Equally important, I suppose, is the reduction of interest rates. It would appear that, because inflation has been controlled in the Philippines and the inflation today is something like 2.5 percent, there is room for a rate cut in our next (meeting) so we’re in an easing cycle. It’s a high probability that we could do a rate cut also for in our next meeting,” he said.

The Monetary Board of the BSP has so far cut rates by 75 basis points last year. Recto said he is hoping that the BSP Monetary Board would deliver a 50 to 75 basis point cut this year.

“Hopefully, at the minimum 50 and probably 75 basis points, for the year that will help propel growth, consumption, and investments moving forward,” he said, adding that the rate cuts would boost economic growth by at least half a percent.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will grow by at least 6% by the end of this year? Do you think Recto’s interview will convince foreign investors to invest in the Philippines this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Further rate cuts by BSP could boost demand for condominium units and new residential projects in Metro Manila

October 18, 2024October 10, 2024carlocarrasco

Here in Metro Manila, there is currently an oversupply of condominium units. Further rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could boost demand for existing condominium units and also new residential projects within the metropolis, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

FURTHER RATE CUTS by the Philippine central bank could help spur new residential project launches and drive take-up of existing condominiums in Metro Manila, a property consultant said.

In its third-quarter property market report, Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC) said the inventory level of condominium units in Metro Manila has reached 67,600 units across 510 buildings — “the highest since the pandemic.”

“It’s an oversupply of the buildings in the market at 29 months’ supply. (Developers) have been slowly launching new projects,” LPC Research Director Roy Amado Golez said at a briefing on Oct. 8.

Quezon City and Ortigas (plus fringe areas) have the most number of unsold condominium units at 18,000 and 13,500, respectively.

High interest rates may have dampened demand for residential condominiums in Metro Manila. LPC said 6,885 units were sold in the July-to-September period, “close to the 7,000 level for the third straight quarter.”

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) had kept its policy rate at an over 17-year high of 6.5% from October 2023 to mid-August 2024. It reduced the benchmark rate to 6.25% at its Aug. 15 meeting.

“The interest rate levels today are still at elevated levels, at 6.25%. However, we’ll be likely seeing rate cuts in October as well as December. Hopefully, those rate cuts will boost… the residential market,” Mr. Golez said.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier signaled the Monetary Board could deliver two 25-basis-point (bp) rate cuts at each of its two remaining meetings this year.

LPC said rate cuts would help ease lending conditions for both developers and homebuyers, as well as encourage developers to launch new projects.

Muted demand may have prompted developers to defer new residential projects. New project launches plunged by 39% to 2,145 units in the quarter ending September, which LPC said was the lowest since the pandemic.

“What developers are most likely doing now is reselling or re-launching or reintroducing marketing programs for their current inventory,” Mr. Golez said, adding that lower interest rates may provide a lift to sales in the next few quarters.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the BSP should reduce the rates soon so that the residential market of Metro Manila will be reinvigorated? Are there any families in your local community who intend to buy a condominium unit and live in it?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Dutch bank predicts Philippine economy will grow 5.4% this year

March 8, 2024February 28, 2024carlocarrasco

ING, a bank and financial services firm based in the Netherlands, published its forecast that the economy of the Philippines will grow by 5.4% this year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

Dutch bank ING is projecting a moderate 5.4 percent growth for the Philippines this year, saying the impact of the central bank’s rate hikes could have propelled robust growth but it is handicapped by “soft” capital formation.

The 5.4 percent growth estimate is considerably lower than the government target of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent this year. It is also lower than 2023’s full-year 5.6 percent growth, which was also below the government’s goal of six percent to seven percent.

ING senior economist Nicholas Mapa, in an ING Manila’s economic briefing on Monday, Feb. 19, said domestic growth seems strong this year but “below par as handicaps persist.”

He said one of these handicaps is the lack in capital formation as an impact of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) cumulative rate hikes since May 2022, for a combined 450 basis points to bring the target reverse repurchase rate or the policy rate to 6.5 percent.

Because of this, Mapa said the “missing link” for a within-target growth is private investment and a National Government spending spree not hampered by a “soft” capital formation.

Capital formation is an integral part of GDP growth. However, capital formation and growth prospects were soft in 2023 due to rate hikes and it could persist this year.

For 2024, ING also forecasts inflation of three percent versus an actual six percent in 2023. The forecast is within the BSP’s target of two percent to four percent. It is also lower compared to the risk-adjusted forecast of the BSP of 3.9 percent for 2024.

Mapa also predict the exchange rate will end with a stronger peso this year at P54.90 since he also expects the BSP’s Monetary Board will cut the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) from 6.5 percent to six percent, thereby boosting the peso performance.

Based on his presentation during the briefing, Mapa expects the first quarter GDP will perform better at six percent compared to the fourth quarter 2023 GDP of 5.6 percent. By the second quarter, he thinks the economy will grow by 6.3 percent but then will drop to 4.7 percent by the third quarter and further down to 4.5 percent in fourth quarter this year.

He said the rate hikes impact bank lending as well as GDP growth, and that the “elevated rates (has kept) capital formation subdued after years of underinvestment.”

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction about this recent development? Do you think ING’s prediction will turn out correct by the end of this year? Do you think that the economy of the Philippines can somehow grow by at least 6% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation (SLIMTC) anticipates strong Philippine economic growth for 2024

March 4, 2024February 23, 2024carlocarrasco

As far as Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation (SLIMTC) is concerned, the Philippine economy can achieve strong growth this year with favorable economic factors supporting it, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent economic growth target for this year is attainable as the projected decline in interest rates will help boost consumption and investments, a top official of Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation (SLIMTC) said on Thursday.

“It seems like it’s something that’s still attainable. Let’s see when rate cuts are there and especially when those infrastructure projects are in,” said SLIMTC Chief Investment Officer Ritchie Teo in a briefing at the Milestone Building in Bonifacio Global City in Taguig City.

According to Teo, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is projected to cut rates by a total of 100 basis points this year as inflation continues to ease.

Headline inflation, which reached 6 percent in 2023, is projected to settle at 3.8 percent this year.

Teo said the BSP will likely wait for the US Federal Reserve to slash interest rates thus, the first rate cut is forecast to happen around June or the early part of the second half of the year.

“Probably good to say they will only cut when Fed cuts. They will wait for Fed so probably that’s on the latter part. Not in April, maybe in June or early second half,” said Teo.

SLIMTC expects the US Federal Reserve to cut policy rates by 75 to 100 basis points by mid-year as US inflation returns to target.

“They [BSP] will leave some [easing] on the latter part of the year mainly because of risks like the November election. So it’s good to have something on the table,” he added.

Teo said the lower interest rates will boost consumption and private investments, which in turn will help accelerate the country’s economic growth.

“Based on the latest gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, we anticipate 6% growth for 2024, largely driven by higher consumption and private investments,” he said.

Government spending especially on infrastructure projects is also expected to be one of the major growth drivers for this year.

“If you look into the investment side, maybe more on the government, given that they’ve been trailing but for the private investments, especially with the rate cuts, again their spending will improve because with the higher interest rates, some are really holding back,” said Teo.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction about this recent development? Do you think easing inflation, lower interest rates and strong consumption will be enough to help the Philippine economy grow by at least 6% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine economy grew only 4.3% in 2nd quarter

August 14, 2023August 10, 2023carlocarrasco

Achieving economic growth of 7% this year has gotten much more challenging for the Philippines as the economy grew by only 4.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2023, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy continued its downtrend as it grew at a slower pace in the second quarter of 2023 — its slowest pace in nine quarters since the country entered the positive territory in the middle of 2021 following a pandemic-induced recession— amid high inflation that tempered consumption during the period, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday.

The economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) or the total value of goods and services produced in a specific period, grew by 4.3% during the April to June 2023 period, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa said at a press conference.

This is slower than the 6.4% growth rate seen in the first quarter of the year and far slower than the 7.5% GDP growth seen in the same quarter last year. Quarter-on-quarter, it posted a decline of -0.9% during the period.

This also marks the fifth straight quarter of deceleration for the country’s GDP, and its slowest footing in nine quarters since it exited the pandemic-induced recession in the second quarter of 2021.

The economy was pulled out of recession in the April to June period of 2021 with a GDP growth rate of 12%.

The second quarter print brought the year-to-date economic growth rate at 5.3%, according to Mapa.

To achieve the government’s 6% to 7% target, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the economy “needs to grow by 6.6% in the second half.”

“Notwithstanding the challenges, we believe this is still attainable,” Balisacan said, reading the joint statement of the economic team.

The country’s chief economist earlier floated that the second quarter GDP growth is expected to “further moderate.”

High inflation, interest rates – The slower growth came amid a still high inflation environment and the consequential costly interest rates to temper rising prices.

As of the first half of the year, inflation or the rate of increase in the prices of goods and services clocked in at 7.2%, still far above the government’s comfortable ceiling of 2% to 4%.

To tame inflation, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised monetary policy rates by a cumulative 425 basis points since May last year.

“For the second quarter, the moderate economic expansion was driven by increases in tourism-related spending and commercial investments, but was tempered by high commodity prices, the lagged effects of interest rate hikes, the contraction in government spending, and slower global economic growth,” Balisacan said.

Notably, Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Likewise, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing posted a quarter-on-quarter decline of -0.97% in the second quarter. Industry and Services sectors also saw contractions of 0.7% and 1.02%, respectively, during the period

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What do you think must be achieved to boost economic growth for the rest of 2023? Do you think the Philippine economy will achieve growth of at least 6% by the end of this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BSP sees 6-7% economic growth in 2023 for Philippines

February 23, 2023February 20, 2023carlocarrasco

As far as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is concerned, the Philippine economy will grow between 6% to 7% this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld. By comparison, HSBC and the World Bank forecast growth rates of 4.4% and 5.4% respectively.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

THE “CONTINUED NORMALIZATION” of post-pandemic mobility will help the Philippine economy expand within the government’s 6-7% target this year, but slower growth is likely in 2024, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

“GDP (gross domestic product) growth is projected to settle within the DBCC’s (Development Budget Coordination Committee) target of 6-7% for 2023, but economic headwinds could result in slower GDP growth in 2024,” the BSP said in its latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

“The full-year growth forecast for 2023 was adjusted upward from the previous MPR. Meanwhile, the growth forecast for 2024 is lower compared to previous round, reflecting weaker global prospects and the impact of cumulative policy rate adjustments of the BSP,” it added.

While the central bank does not give its exact growth forecasts, the DBCC targets 6.5-8% GDP growth in 2024.

According to the central bank, the economy will be “driven by growth in the industry sector as manufacturers signal increased production plans as the economy reopens further.”

Based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the service sector expanded by 9.8% in the fourth quarter last year, while the industry sector grew by 4.8%. Annually, services jumped by 9.2%, and industry expanded by 6.7%.

Better labor market conditions, higher demand for tourism, and greater economic activity due to the resumption of face-to-face classes are seen to boost growth in the services sector, the BSP said.

“Moreover, the implementation of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) Law, Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer (FIST) Act, and the second tranche of the reduction in personal income taxes could help further bolster the domestic outlook in 2023-2024,” it added.

Meanwhile, the overall balance of supply and demand conditions, as reflected by the output gap, is expected to “remain broadly neutral” in the near term.

“Estimates from the BSP’s Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh) indicate that the output gap is estimated to be slightly positive in early 2023, reflecting the sustained economic expansion in 2022,” the central bank said.

The economy grew by 7.6% in 2022, exceeding the government’s 6.5-7.5% target, and the fastest growth since 1975.

“Thereafter, the output gap is seen to remain in broadly neutral territory as the impact of policy interest rate adjustments takes hold on the economy. A projected slowdown in global growth owing in part to tightening monetary conditions across countries could likewise dampen aggregate demand,” the BSP said.

The Monetary Board last week increased the benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 6%, the highest in nearly 16 years. Rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also increased to 5.5% and 6.5%, respectively.

According to analysts, higher interest rates could drag economic growth slower this year.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines can achieve economic growth beyond 6% this year? Do you think the government should do more with post-pandemic living and economics in mind?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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HSBC sees Philippine economy growth of 4.4% for 2023 due to key factors

January 12, 2023January 6, 2023carlocarrasco

HSBC, one of the biggest players of the global financial industry, recently made its forecast of the Philippines growing economically at 4.4% for the year 2023, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). There are certain factors mentioned in HSBC’s assessment for the nation.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the PNA article. Some parts in boldface…

Hikes in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) key policy rates are expected to dampen the strong domestic output for 2023, with an executive of HSBC forecasting a 4.4 percent expansion this year.

In a virtual briefing on Thursday, HSBC chief investment officer for Southeast Asia, Global Private Banking and Wealth, James Cheo, said private consumption contributed to the strong recovery of the domestic economy last year but this is seen to be limited by the monetary tightening aimed to temper the elevated inflation rate.

Other factors that boosted gross domestic product (GDP) last year include investments, higher government spending on infrastructure and increased mobility following the resumption of face-to-face schooling, he said.

“Looking into 2023, the country’s growth will slow and the recovery is going to be more gradual as the reopening boost fades and monetary tightening weighs on domestic demand,” Cheo said.

As of the third quarter of last year, growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), rose by 7.76 percent, exceeding the government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent growth assumption for this year.

The BSP’s key rates have been hiked by 350 basis points from May to December last year, after being at record-low of 2 percent in 2020, as monetary authorities help address the elevated inflation rate.

Last December, domestic rate of price increases further accelerated to 8.1 percent, the highest since November 2008, due to faster annual jumps in goods and energy prices.

Cheo said “household’s consumption in 2023 will likely be curtailed” given the elevated inflation rate.

“Strong employment, tourism recovery, expanding production and retail sales, and public investment will continue to support growth in 2023,” he said.

With inflation expected to remain high, Cheo projects the BSP to make three consecutive 25 basis point increases this year, “pausing at 6.25 percent by Q2 (second quarter) 2023” and keeping this decision until at least the second half of 2024.

The above article ended with HSBC predicting that the Philippine Peso will weaken to the United States Dollar at a rate of US$1 = P56.50.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you believe that inflation and interest rates will somehow slow down the ongoing economic growth later this year? Do you think that Philippine tourism will become a factor to help the Philippine economy grow at least 5% this year? What do you think the national government and its economic managers should do to maintain strong growth as the nation keeps on recovering from the depression of the COVID-19 crisis? Have you been managing your personal or business finances carefully recently?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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