economic dynamism – Page 8 – Author Carlo Carrasco

GCash implements temporary measures to avoid vote-buying

March 20, 2025March 12, 2025carlocarrasco

With the 2025 National and Local elections all set to happen on May 12, the popular e-wallet service GCash recently implemented temporary measures to curb potential vote-buying, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA news report. Some parts in boldface…

GCash has imposed a temporary daily transaction limit on “Express Send” and “Send via QR” to avoid vote-buying in the 2025 midterm elections.

In an advisory, GCash said the daily transaction limit will be implemented until May 12, 2025, the day of the elections. Normal transactions will resume the following day, May 13, 2025.

“Ang mga hakbang na ito ay para sa patas at ligtas na halalan. Sa pagpigil sa financial influence sa boto ng mga tao, masisigurong tunay na boses ng mamamayan ang resulta ng eleksyon,” GCash said.

“Babantayan ng GCash ang mga transactions para matiyak na hindi ito ginagamit sa ilegal na election activities,” it added.

(These steps are implemented to ensure fair and safe elections. By preventing financial influence on people’s votes, we can ensure that the election results truly reflect the people’s voice. GCash will monitor the transactions to ensure that money will not be used in illegal election activities.)

Once the daily limit is reached, GCash said its users can transact on the following day. GCash also said business users are included in the temporary restrictions.

“Any unusual transaction flow between accounts, digital banking and digital wallets, including unusual large cash withdrawals involving the amount exceeding P500,000, encashment of checks, during election period, which have no underlying legal/trade obligation, purpose or economic justification or the amount involved is not commensurate with the business or financial profile of the client, shall be considered suspicious transactions of vote buying and vote selling,” the Commission on Elections (Comelec) Resolution 11104 read.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think GCash made the right moves in relation to the upcoming national and local elections?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Japanese leisure services firm to invest P2.5 billion in the Philippines

March 19, 2025March 11, 2025carlocarrasco

Koshidaka Holdings, a leisure services firm based in Japan, will be investing P2.5 billion in the Philippines and plans to launch its first store this year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. This development is related with the Department of Trade and Industry’s (DTI) recent meetings with corporations in Japan. Kodaka Holdings has more than six hundred outlets in Japan and the Philippines is a key part of its planned expansion in Southeast Asia.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Japanese leisure services firm Koshidaka Holdings Co. Ltd. will be investing PHP2.5 billion in the country, with its first store set to open this year, Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Secretary Ma. Cristina Roque said.

In a virtual briefing Tuesday, Roque said Koshidaka is aggressive on its plans to expand in the country to bring its karaoke business and onsen-style (hot spring) spas as well as opening women’s fitness studios in Philippine malls.

The Japanese firm is scouting for 30 locations to establish its business here before growing to 100 sites nationwide.

Koshidaka is one of the 13 firms and business organizations that Roque met during her recent visit in Tokyo as a follow-through of the agency’s investment missions in Japan.

These firms include Nidec Corp., Ibiden Co., Ltd., Etoile Kaito & Co., Inc, Adastria Co., Ltd., Sumitomo, Fujifilm Holdings Corp., Chodai Co., Ltd. Taiheiyo Cement Corp., Fast Retailing, JR East, and Koshidaka Holdings Co., Ltd as well Keizai Doyukai and Keidanren.

“We also check on their plans, what their plans are in our country for expansion and also for growth,” Roque said.

Earlier, Koshidaka announced that it would establish a Philippine subsidiary to offer a new style of karaoke entertainment.

Koshidaka said its expansion in the Philippines is a key initiative in its Southeast Asia growth strategy, with the country’s large market and economic development.

“Aside from the entertainment, they also want to open a gym that’s really just focused on women all over the country, and they also want to focus on creating Japanese onsen in the malls or in different areas that are of interest to them,” Roque said.

“So they’re actually coming first quarter this year to really explore the different locations where they can open.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you find Koshidaka Holdings’ karaoke and onsen-style spas interesting? Have you tried any of Koshidaka Holdings’ businesses in Japan before?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economist says election-related spending won’t add much to nation’s economic growth this time

March 18, 2025March 18, 2025carlocarrasco

As far as one economist is concerned, spending related to this year’s national and local elections (scheduled for May 12, 2025) will not add much to the nation’s economic growth this year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

Elections and related spending no longer provide the same economic boost as they once did. As a result, an economist at Ateneo de Manila University expects the Philippine economy to grow below goal this year, despite the upcoming midterm elections in May.

Luis Dumlao, associate professor and senior research fellow at the university’s economic research arm, Ateneo Eagle Watch, forecasted that there won’t be any “extraordinary GDP [gross domestic product] spike” due to election-related activities during the first half of this year.

During Ateneo Eagle Watch’s 2025 economic briefing last Thursday, March 6, Dumlao projected that annual GDP growth could potentially accelerate from 5.6 percent in 2024 to 5.9 percent in 2025.

If Dumlao’s forecast proves accurate, it would mark the third consecutive year that economic growth falls short of the government’s target, following a peak of 7.6 percent in 2022—the year of the last presidential election, which President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. won.

The Marcos administration targets growth of six to eight percent for 2025.

In the past, elections—even midterm polls—bolstered the economy. GDP grew by 6.1 percent in 2019 and 6.8 percent in 2013 due to midterm election-related spending.

In 2016, when former President Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, economic growth reached 7.1 percent. Back in 2010, when former President Benigno Aquino III was voted to the top position in the land, GDP expanded by 7.3 percent.

Despite his below-expectations GDP growth estimate for this year, Dumlao also projected that annual inflation would average 2.4 percent, falling within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) two- to four-percent target range for manageable price increases.

His headline inflation forecast for 2025 is lower than the 3.2 percent in 2024. As of end-February, inflation averaged 2.5 percent, mainly due to rice deflation or declining prices of the Filipino food staple.

With the election campaign season rolling in, Dumlao noted that the practice of politicians giving away dole-outs or “ayuda” may no longer be as feasible.

While such spending was effective as a band-aid solution during the Covid-19 pandemic, when there was a greater need for financial support to sectors badly hit by the health and socioeconomic crises it wrought, Dumlao emphasized that “there’s no excuse” for continuing such expenditures post-pandemic.

“Ayuda was excused during the pandemic… However, for some reason, the government’s expenditure [on dole-outs] grew” even after the pandemic.

“There’s still [ayuda] spending as if it’s still the pandemic,” he said.

As elections gradually lose their hefty contribution to economic output, Dumlao urged the government to focus on key industries that would foster long-term growth.

“The economic drivers right now are accommodation like hotels, retail, trade, and construction. Business process outsourcing (BPO), too. Those are the fastest-growing subsectors,” he said.

Dumlao also suggested a further push for privatization of certain infrastructures and utilities.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you still think that election-related spending can still add a lot to the growth of the national economy this year? Do you think further privatization by the government will prove to be more crucial and helpful to enhancing economic growth? Did you notice how the local politicians and election candidate have been giving away assistance or ayuda to local communities recently?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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UBS Investment Bank Global Research economist sees Philippine economy growing by 5.9% this year

March 5, 2025February 26, 2025carlocarrasco

A senior economist of the UBS Investment Bank Global Research stated that the economy of the Philippines will grow better this year by 5.9%, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. In 2024, the economy grew by 5.6%.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine economic growth is expected to accelerate this year on the back of higher investments and consumption, an economist of UBS Investment Bank Global Research said.

In a virtual briefing on Wednesday, UBS Investment Bank Global Research Senior ASEAN and Asia Economist Grace Lim said the Philippine economy is projected to grow by 5.9 percent this year from 5.6 percent in 2024.

“We see an improving growth outlook for the Philippines,” Lim said. “The underlying positive growth delta is driven by domestic demand as both investment and consumption accelerate in 2025.“

She said private investments would recover gradually as financial conditions become less restrictive and consumer sentiment gradually picks up. Solid labor income growth and the easing of food inflation will also help boost consumption growth.

“Consumption, as well, is likely to be positive amidst the improving fundamentals and the resilient labor market, which, I should add, is one of the most significant support for Philippines demand,” she said.

Lim said government spending and the continued growth in services exports would also support economic growth.

“What is also often underappreciated is the bright spot of services exports, especially in the BPO sector,” she said.

Lim said she expects the country’s BPO sector to remain resilient this year.

Higher tariffs – Asked about the impact of tariff trade escalation on the Philippine economy, Lim said the Philippines is in a “rather defensive market in the event of potential trade tariff escalation.”

“That’s because the Philippines is primarily domestic-oriented with investment as a percentage of GDP 23 percent, consumption over 70 percent. So not very trade-exposed,” she said.

She pointed out that in the case of trade tariff escalation, the Philippine peso could also be a relative outperformer in the region.

“That said, we do think that if tariffs are universal, then obviously there could be weaker prospects for currencies in general, but even in that scenario, it would not be a very big depreciation,” she said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippine economy has what it takes to grow by at least 5.9% this year? Do you think that the national economy can withstand the effects of new tariffs?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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More investors expected in relation to newly signed CREATE MORE IRR

February 28, 2025February 26, 2025carlocarrasco

In connection with the recent signing of the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act, a director of the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) expects more investors to come in, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) Director General Tereso Panga is expecting more investors to put up their businesses in economic zones across the country following the signing of the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act.

Panga said the IRR provides clarity for the smooth implementation of the law.

“It is a product of conjoined efforts that will surely attract more interest in the Philippines and paves the way for future investment growth,” Panga said in a statement Wednesday.

On Feb. 17, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto and Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina Roque led the signing of the CREATE MORE’s IRR.

The IRR supports PEZA’s mandate of driving investment growth into the country, promote sustainable development in the countryside, and create more jobs.

“The CREATE MORE Act refines the investment landscape of the Philippines to be at parity with other countries,” he said.

“With these new policies in place, coupled with the positive attributes already presented by our country and the various advantages like a communications-ready skilled workforce, a conducive business environment and a whole-of-government approach, it is without doubt that new investors will come in and old investors will choose to stay for the long haul,” he added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the newly signed IRR of CREATE MORE will result in more investors to come into the Philippines and put up businesses in economic zones?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Mitsubishi will invest P7 billion in the Philippines

February 13, 2025February 7, 2025carlocarrasco

Japanese motor giant Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (MMC) formally announced recently that it will be investing P7 billion in the Philippines which President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., welcomed, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…

President Marcos welcomed Mitsubishi Motors Corp.’s (MMC) P7-billion investment plan in the Philippines in the next five years, saying this will create more jobs for Filipinos.

Marcos expressed his appreciation to MMC during Mitsubishi President and CEO Kato Takao’s courtesy call to the President in Malacañan on Thursday, Feb. 6, to discuss the company’s investment plan in the Philippines.

During their meeting, Kato said MMC’s expansion plan includes adding a new production model at its Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corp. (MMPC) plant in Laguna. Marcos welcomed this move as it would generate more jobs for Filipinos.

“The jobs that it will provide, that your investment will provide, are very important to us and certainly, vehicle manufacture is one of those,” President Marcos said.

In a Facebook post, the President described Mitsubishi as a valuable partner in his administration’s quest to boost the automotive industry.

“As a strong partner in our journey to strengthen the automotive industry and empower Filipino workers, we welcome Mitsbushi Motors Corporation’s plans to expand operations in the country,” he wrote.

“Mr. Takao Kato and I share the same goals of driving innovation, creating more jobs, and making sustainable transportation a reality for Filipinos,” he added.

During the meeting, Marcos said that MMC will be included in the government’s Revitalizing the Automotive Industry for Competitiveness Enhancement (RACE) Program, a new proposed version of the Comprehensive Automotive Resurgence Strategy (CARS) Program. He hoped MMC’s inclusion would help in its expansion plans.

For his part, Kato said the Philippines is MMC’s most important investment in Southeast Asia, citing its good and stable economy.

“In the ASEAN, (the) Philippines is our number one market,” Kato told the President.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Mitsubishi’s ambitious investment plan will add a lot to the ongoing economic growth of the country?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economy of the Philippines grew by 5.6% in 2024

February 7, 2025January 31, 2025carlocarrasco

The economic growth of the Philippines for the year 2024 has officially been declared by national authorities at 5.6%, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article (which itself emphasized 2024 4^th quarter economic growth of 5.2%). By comparison, the national economy grew by 7.6% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2023.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippines was the third highest-growing economy in the region in the fourth quarter of last year despite the impacts of geopolitical tensions and the series of typhoons that hit the country.

Philippine economic growth settled at 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, bringing the full-year economic growth to 5.6 percent.

“While this falls short of our target of 6.0 to 6.5 percent, we are positioned as the third fastest-growing economy in the region, trailing Vietnam (7.5 percent) and China (5.4 percent) but outpacing Malaysia (4.8 percent),” National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon said in a briefing Thursday.

Edillon said the country faced numerous setbacks like extreme weather events, geopolitical tensions, and subdued global demand.

“While some challenges affect the entire economy, others exert pressure on specific sectors. Consequently, our economic performance in 2024 hinged on the impact of these factors on various sectors and whether we can mitigate the negative effects or enable a swift recovery,” said Edillon.

Last year, economic growth was mainly driven by the industry and services sectors.

National Statistician Dennis Mapa said that among the major economic sectors, industry and services grew by 5.6 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively, last year.

Growth in the manufacturing sector, however, was hampered by subdued global due to geopolitical tensions and the slow recovery of advanced economies. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing declined by 1.6 percent.

Edillon said the six typhoons that hit the country in the fourth quarter, caused disruptions in crop production, livestock, and fisheries. On the demand side, household final consumption expenditure expanded by 4.8 percent.

“During the fourth quarter, we had a succession of typhoons again in October until mid-November and this dampened the growth momentum and travel plans. Although we did see that there was increased spending on travel, transport, recreation and culture but still it was not enough to counter the slowdown in other expenditure items,” said Edillon.

Government final consumption expenditure, meanwhile, grew by 7.2 percent, while gross capital formation rose by 7.5 percent. Exports of goods and services went up by 3.4 percent, while imports of goods and services increased by 4.3 percent.

Building resilience – Edillon noted that the key to economic growth is to build resilience and ensure adaptability to changing preferences.

“To achieve resilient economic growth, we need to diversify our sources of growth,” she said.

Edillon cited the need to encourage more investments in sectors that require workers with higher-level skills.

To keep food inflation low and stable, Edillon said the government must anticipate potential shocks and continue to employ multi-pronged approaches.

“Looking ahead to 2025, we want to regain our growth momentum driven by strategic investments and initiatives designed to strengthen resilience and lay the foundation for long-term inclusive growth,” she said.

Edillon said the government will also ramp up efforts to further develop the country’s infrastructure and boost economic competitiveness by streamlining business processes.

According to Edillon, the government will also expand new free-trade agreements.

To support the recovery in the agriculture sector, Edillon said the government through the Department of Agriculture, will fast-track the implementation of the National Rice Program, invest in irrigation facilities, and fully utilize the increased provision for the Rice Competitiveess Enhancement Fund to improve farm productivity.

Edillon said tourism will also help boost economic growth.

“The government will explore easing visa requirements and actively participate in initiatives such as the proposed ASEAN common visa policy to enhance visitor inflows,” she said.

Edillon said the government will also strengthen the country’s talent pipeline through reskilling and upskilling programs to boost growth in the information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) sector.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Were you surprised that the 2024 economic growth of the Philippines ended below 6%? What do you think will help the national economy grow by at least 6% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BPI lead economist says Philippine economy will accelerate this year

January 30, 2025January 22, 2025carlocarrasco

For the lead economist of Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), the economy of the Philippines will accelerate this year in connection to rising household consumption as well as other factors, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news article of the PNA. Some parts in boldface…

Growth of the Philippine economy is expected to accelerate this year, driven by the continued expansion of household consumption, an economist from the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) said.

“We expect the Philippine economy to expand by 6.3% in 2025, outpacing the previous year’s performance, with household consumption remaining its biggest driver,” BPI lead economist Jun Neri said in a commentary released late Wednesday.

Neri earlier forecast a 6.1 percent economic growth for 2024.

Neri said factors sustaining household consumption growth such as remittance inflows, remained in place despite the economic slowdown in major economies.

“With aging populations abroad driving the demand for labor, the impact of headwinds on remittances like trade barriers and anti-immigration sentiment will likely be limited. Remittances also have a strong track record of stability and growth even in times of crisis, as seen during the pandemic,” he said.

Neri said the country’s low unemployment rate is also expected to support consumption.

“This should continue to drive the growth of household income and the expansion of the middle class,” he said.

Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the unemployment rate further went down to 3.2 percent in November last year from 3.6 percent in November 2023.

Consumer spending, meanwhile, is expected to grow at a faster pace this year as inflation remains at a manageable level.

“This improvement will likely be most apparent in discretionary spending after a period of slower growth caused by high inflation, as consumers focused more on essentials,” said Neri.

Inflation will likely settle at 3.5 percent this year, well within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target, Neri said.

Meanwhile, he said the recent reduction in interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), will also help boost economic growth.

To recall, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reduced policy rates for a total of 75 basis points this year.

The BSP also reduced the RRR of universal and commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 basis points.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you think the economy of the Philippines will be able to grow by at least 6.3% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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IMF sees stronger economic growth for the Philippines in 2026 but warns about risks related to external developments

January 28, 2025January 25, 2025carlocarrasco

Recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that it expects the economic growth of the Philippines to get stronger in 2026 but it issue a warning that external developments could prevent it from happening, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY will continue to accelerate from this year to 2026 as domestic demand remains robust, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said, but warned risks are tilted to the downside due to possible external shocks.

At the same time, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said that the Philippines likely failed to hit its 6-6.5% growth goal for 2024, amid typhoons.

“If it hits 6% in the fourth quarter, I’ll be happy with that. I don’t think it will hit 6% for 2024, but I think it will surpass 6% in 2025,” Mr. Recto told reporters on Jan. 16.

For the first nine months of 2024, Philippine growth averaged 5.8%, the same as the IMF’s projection for the full year. Preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on Jan. 30.

In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF kept its GDP forecasts for the Philippines at 6.1% this year and 6.3% for 2026, the same as its projections in October.

These would fall within the government’s 6-8% GDP target for 2025 and 2026.

“Growth for 2025-2026 is projected to be primarily driven by domestic demand, namely consumption and investment,” an IMF spokesperson said in an e-mail.

“Consumption growth will be supported by lower food prices and gradual monetary policy easing,” it added.

Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed household consumption, which accounts for over three-fourths of the economy, jumped by 5.1% in the third quarter from 4.7% a quarter ago.

“Investment growth is expected to pick up on the back of a sustained public investment push, gradually declining borrowing costs and acceleration in the implementation of public-private partnership projects and foreign direct investments (FDI), following recent legislative reforms,” the IMF said.

Gross capital formation, the investment component of the economy, expanded by 13.1% in the third quarter, a turnaround from the 0.3% dip a year ago.

However, the IMF said that the balance of risks to the growth outlook is tilted to the downside, citing external risks.

“Some of the main downside risks include recurrent commodity price volatility, and new supply shocks, which may necessitate tighter monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations,” it said.

The IMF also cited shocks such as geopolitical tensions which could disrupt trade and other financial flows.

“Higher for longer policy rates in advanced economies (could cause) capital outflows, and tighter financial conditions,” it added.

The multilateral institution also cited climate shocks and extreme weather events which would lead to economic losses.

“There are also upside risks to the outlook, including from higher-than-expected growth in private investment through public-private partnerships, higher inward FDI following a faster-than-expected global recovery, or stronger reform momentum,” it added.

INFLATION – Meanwhile, the IMF said it expects inflation to remain within the central bank’s 2-4% target range in the near to medium term. It projects headline inflation to average 2.8% this year and 3% in 2026.

“However, risks are tilted to the upside, as rising geopolitical tensions, extreme climate events, and recurrent commodity price volatility continue to pose upside risks to inflation,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the IMF is correct with its current analysis of the details and economic forecast for the Philippines? Do you think the national government should focus more on attracting new foreign investors and bringing inflation down to build up the economic momentum?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Citigroup sees Philippine economy expanding by about 6% this year

January 28, 2025January 21, 2025carlocarrasco

In the perspective of Citigroup, Inc. (Citi), the economy of the Philippines will grow this year by around 6%, pointing to the growth of the business process outsourcing (BPO), according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld Some parts in boldface…

CITIGROUP, INC. (Citi) expects the Philippine economy to expand by around 6% this year, partly driven by sustained growth in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector.

“We expect the growth in 2025 to stay within the 6% handle,” Citi Asia South Head Amol Gupte said in an online briefing on Monday.

Citi’s forecast would be at the low end of the government’s 6-8% target for the year.

“The Philippines will continue to benefit from [the BPO industry] and will create a lot of jobs. On moving up the value chain on global capability centers, countries like the Philippines will play a very large role along with India,” Mr. Gupte said.

The information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) industry ended 2024 with $38 billion in export revenue, and 1.82 million full-time employees.

Under the Philippine IT-BPM Industry Roadmap, the target is to grow into a $59-billion industry and increase the full-time employee count to 2.5 million by 2028.

“So, I think it’s really important that the Philippines, as it thinks about the BPO industry, moves up the value chain so that it retains and bring more middle-office kinds of jobs beyond the voice jobs that exist in the tens of thousands,” Mr. Gupte said.

However, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could be a risk to the IT-BPM sector in the Philippines.

“There’s also the risk to that in terms of what AI will do to that industry and whether that will reduce jobs,” Mr. Gupte said.

Meanwhile, Citi South Asia Corporate Banking Head K Balasubramanian said sustained economic growth ensures that Philippine banks are well-positioned to continue to generate profits.

“I think the financial profile of the Filipino banks continues to be very strong, and with 6% growth I think they are well capitalized to look at the opportunities ahead,” he said.

As of end-September 2023, the Philippine banking system’s net profit rose by 6.4% to P290 billion as both net interest and non-interest income grew.

“We just saw the upgraded Philippine sovereign rating that happened in the fourth quarter of last year. And if you look at the impact of that on the Republic of Philippines, as well as the state-owned banks of the Philippines, I think that’s going to be crucially positive because we are now up to BBB+,” Mr. Balasubramanian said.

“(This) means that the ability to access international financing is going to be better and even the cost of the access is going to be better than what it was in the past.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Citgroup is correct about its research on the Philippine economy? Do you think the BPO industry will contribute a lot to the economic growth of the nation this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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