Tag: growth forecast

IMF Sees Sluggish Economic Growth for the Philippines this Year

IMF Sees Sluggish Economic Growth for the Philippines this Year

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In its latest economic assessment about the Philippines, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by only 3.4% this year and it will end up as one of the weaker economics of Southeast Asia, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES could post the fifth-slowest growth in Southeast Asia this year as weak investment and elevated inflation weigh on economic activity, while unemployment is expected to rise more than previously forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on Tuesday, the IMF expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 3.4% this year, slowing from the post-pandemic low of 4.4% recorded in 2025.

This puts the Philippines behind most economies in the Association of the Southeast Nations (ASEAN). Vietnam is projected to post the fastest growth at 8.4%, followed by Malaysia (5.2%), Indonesia (5.1%), Singapore (5%), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (4.5%), and Timor-Leste (4%).

The Philippines is only expected to outpace Cambodia (3%), Thailand (2.1%), Myanmar (2%), and Brunei (1.9%) this year.

Philippine economic growth remained muted this year as the Middle East war-driven energy crisis amplified the lingering effects of the flood control mess. In the second quarter, GDP grew by a new post-pandemic low of 2.3%, bringing the first-half expansion to 2.6%.

However, the IMF expects the Philippine economy to regain momentum next year, but still below its growth potential.

“The Philippines is projected to grow by 5.1% in 2027, recovering from 3.4% in 2026,” an IMF spokesperson said in an e-mail.

“This is a robust recovery — thanks to the still elevated Philippines growth potential—which allows (the) Philippines to maintain a relatively strong pace compared with many ASEAN peers next year. However, (it is) still relatively lower than its growth potential.”

If this holds, the Philippines will be the second fastest-growing economy in ASEAN in 2027, matching Indonesia and trailing only Vietnam with 7.5%.

MAIN RISKS – For the IMF, the Philippines could rebound once confidence picks up and the energy shock fades to gradually steer investments back to the country.

However, the Washington-based multilateral lender said the economy may remain below its potential until next year if the investment backdrop remains bleak and consumer prices stay elevated.

“The main risks are renewed delays in public infrastructure investment, persistently high energy and food prices, and weaker investor confidence,” the IMF spokesperson said. “Restoring public investment while strengthening governance will be key to making the recovery durable.”

Economic managers are targeting 3.5%-4.5% GDP growth this year and 5%-6% next year until 2030.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think there will be no economic breakthroughs for the Philippines this year? What do you think the Philippines should do to attract more new foreign investments and bring down the cost of energy? Do you think hosting the ASEAN Summit this year resulted in no real economic benefits for the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

AMRO Slashes 2026 Philippines GDP Growth Forecast

AMRO Slashes 2026 Philippines GDP Growth Forecast

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The Philippines, which is currently the host of the ASEAN Summit and is also one of the economic weaklings of Southeast Asia, is predicted by ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) to have slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE Philippine economy may continue to grow below its potential through 2027 as persistent energy shocks and weak investment weigh on activity, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.

In its latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, AMRO slashed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for this year to 3.3% from its July estimate of 4.1% and for 2027 to 4.6% from 5.5%.

Both forecasts are below the National Government’s growth targets of 3.5%-4.5% for 2026 and 5%-6% for 2027.

AMRO also trimmed its inflation forecast for this year to 5.6% from 5.7% previously but raised it for next year to 4.6% from 4.1% previously.

If realized, inflation will accelerate from the 1.7% clip last year and breach the central bank’s 3% target for two consecutive years.

At a press briefing on Monday, AMRO Chief Economist Dong He noted that the Middle East war-driven energy shock took a heavy toll on the Philippine economy, significantly slowing growth while fueling inflation.

“The Philippines is one of the economies that was hit harder by the energy shock,” he said. “As you recall, when the Middle East conflict took place, the government took very swift action and they introduced a national emergency. So that, I think, helped the country galvanize towards responses towards this big energy shock.”

“But of course, growth did slow down significantly and the inflation went up very quickly,” Mr. He added.

The AMRO chief economist also noted that the Philippine economy continues to be weighed down by an investment slump following the flood control corruption scandal which broke out last year.

“Now, the Philippines also have some domestic issues that they need to deal with,” Mr. He said. “Remember, there was this flood control-related issue and that significantly slowed down public investment.”

“So, the growth outlook is very dependent on how fast public investment and construction related activities can pick up,” he added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think there really is not much the government can do to boost economic growth this year? What is your opinion about the way the current economic managers of the Philippines are handling economic matters? Would you be surprised to see the Philippine economy fall into a recession in the first half of 2028?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Nomura trims Philippine economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

Nomura trims Philippine economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

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As far as the Nomura Global Markets Research is concerned, the economic growth of the Philippines will for 2025 and 2026 will end up weaker than previously expected, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

NOMURA GLOBAL Markets Research has trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and 2026 following the weak first-quarter expansion.

Nomura cut its Philippine economic growth forecast to 5.3% for this year from 5.9% previously, it said in a report dated May 9. It also slashed its 2026 projection to 5.6% from 6.1%.

Both projections are well below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s 6-8% growth target for 2025 until 2028.

“Our 2025-26 GDP forecast revisions take into account the disappointing first-quarter outturn, which only rose slightly to 5.4% year on year from 5.3% in fourth quarter 2024, despite election-related spending,” Nomura analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said in the report.

“Escalating global trade and geopolitical tensions are the main downside risks to growth. A faster rollout of infrastructure projects and lower oil prices are upside risks.”

The Philippine economy expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter, the government reported last week. This was a tad faster than the revised 5.3% in the previous quarter but sharply slower from the 5.9% growth in the same period in 2024.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Group Rosemarie G. Edillon said that GDP would need to grow by 6.2% for the rest of the year to reach the lower end of the 6-8% goal.

Based on its forecasts, Nomura expects the Philippines to post below-6% GDP growth for the rest of the year. Broken down, it sees GDP growth of 5.3% in the second quarter, 5.4% in the third quarter, and just 5% in the fourth quarter.

In 2024, the economy expanded by 6.5% in the second quarter, 5.2% in the third quarter, and 5.3% in the fourth quarter.

“A key source of the downside surprise [in the first quarter] was investment spending growth, which we believe suggests businesses have already turned cautious amid surging global trade uncertainty, even in a less open economy,” Nomura said.

“We expect a moderate pickup in real GDP growth in 2026, led by the government’s strong push for more progress on infrastructure projects.”

It added that it expects the country to post a current account deficit of 4.1% of GDP this year and 4.4% of GDP next year, wider than the 3.8% ratio in 2024, driven by an increase in capital goods imports amid the government’s infrastructure push and weaker exports due to the US’ tariffs.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines can still grow stronger than what Nomura predicts in 2025 and 2026? Do you think the national government should make new economic moves to stimulate the national economy while also attracting new foreign investors?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at  @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco