inflation – Page 7 – Author Carlo Carrasco

IMF sees Philippine economy growing by more than 6% in 2025

October 11, 2024October 3, 2024carlocarrasco

Citing key factors in its research, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the economy of the Philippines will expand by more than 6% in 2025, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy successfully navigated multiple external headwinds in recent years and is expected to grow by over 6 percent next year, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said.

In a briefing at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas office in Manila on Wednesday, IMF Mission Chief Eli Arbatli Saxegaard said the Philippines remained among the best performing economies in the region.

An IMF team led by Saxegaard held meetings in Manila from Sept. 18 to Oct. 2 to conduct discussions on the Philippine economy for the 2024 Article IV Consultation.

Saxegaard said the Philippine economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent this year and will further accelerate to 6.1 percent in 2025.

“This pick-up in growth will be supported by more accommodative financial conditions and higher investment,” she said.

The latest projection, however, was lower than the 6 percent and 6.2 percent previous forecast for 2024 and 2025.

“The downward revision from our July forecast reflects our view that private consumption is going to grow slightly with less momentum. So I would like to highlight that the downgrade is very small, 0.2, and reflects the fact that the first half (of the year) private consumption growth was lower than what we had anticipated. And this might be in part driven by the high food prices,” Saxegaard said.

Despite the revision, Saxegaard said the Philippines continues to be one of the highest growing economies in the region.

“I would also like to highlight that the growth forecast for the Philippines remains one of the highest in the region. It’s 6.1 percent growth for 2025, is a very respectable growth rate… So it’s a very small adjustment reflecting the outturns the first half,” she said.

Downside risks to the country’s growth outlook include a slowdown in major economies that could disrupt trade and financial flows; commodity price volatility and supply shocks; and an escalation of geopolitical tensions or regional conflicts.

Easing of global financial conditions, or faster than anticipated private investment linked to public-private-partnerships and larger foreign direct investment inflows, on the other hand, could stimulate higher growth.

The IMF believes that the Philippine economy holds significant potential with its abundant natural resources, untapped blue economy, and a sizable demographic dividend.

Saxegaard, however, said that unlocking the medium-term growth potential will depend on structural reforms and strengthened social protection programs.

She said priority areas include upgrading infrastructure, making significant investments in healthcare and education, addressing land fragmentation and low productivity in agricultural sector, and enhancing governance.

Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to settle within the government’s target for both 2024 and 2025.

“We believe that the decisive monetary tightening and other measures have helped mitigate inflationary pressures in the Philippines, recent tariff cuts on imported rice and other non-monetary measures helped reduce food prices, and should further reduce headline inflation by the year end,” Saxegaard said.

“For this year, our expectation is that for inflation to average 3.3 percent, and for next year, 3 percent. That would be supported by lower food and core inflation remaining well within the target.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines still has momentum to grow better in 2025 than what the IMF predicted?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines inflation down to 1.9% this past September, lowest since May 2020

October 7, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

The inflation rate of the Philippines fell down to 1.9% for the month of September 2024 which marks a 4-year-low, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The country’s headline inflation further eased to 1.9 percent in September this year, the lowest recorded since the 1.6 percent in May 2020.

Headline inflation was at 3.3 percent in August and 6.1 percent in September last year.

In a briefing on Friday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said the latest data brought the year-to-date inflation to 3.4 percent, which is well within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target.

Mapa said the downtrend in the overall inflation was due to the slower annual increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages at 1.4 percent from 3.9 percent in August.

Food inflation, in particular, eased to 1.4 percent in September from 4.2 percent the previous month.

Mapa said the deceleration in food inflation was due to the slower inflation rate of rice at 5.7 percent from 14.7 percent in August.

Other contributors to the lower food inflation include the faster decline in the inflation of vegetables, tubers, cooking bananas, and pulses.

Lower inflation rates were also reported for corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, and ready-made food and other food products.

In a separate statement, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) assured the public that the government remains committed to stabilizing commodity prices.

“The continued slowdown in inflation is expected to boost consumer confidence, driving higher spending and consumption and fueling business expansion,” said NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan.

“Additionally, easing food prices will relieve low-income households, enabling them to allocate more to other essential needs such as education and health. We will sustain the momentum as we assure the public that we will continue to pursue and carry out strategies to maintain stable prices of food and other commodities,” he added.

Balisacan said the Executive Order issued by President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., which reduced the rice tariffs to 15 percent, helped bring down rice prices.

“While we expect lower tariffs to reduce rice prices, we should continuously support local production through increased agricultural funding to complement this short-term measure,” Balisacan said.

The NEDA chief assured the public that the government is ready to address other inflationary pressures affecting food, such as the continuing prevalence of African swine fever (ASF), through the delivery of vaccines.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the lower headline inflation will be helpful for local businesses that have been struggling with cutting down their expenses?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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World Bank says that Philippines inflation will likely slow down this year

October 6, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

The World Bank (WB) recently announced that it sees inflation in the Philippines likely to go down this year and fall within the target range set by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE INFLATION is likely to slow this year to fall within the central bank’s target range, but higher transport charges and domestic rice production pose upside risks, the World Bank said.

In its latest monthly update, the World Bank said that the entry of more rice imports under lower tariffs should help keep inflation within the government’s 2-4% target.

“Inflation resumed its downward trend in August and is on track to fall within target this year,” the Washington-based lender said.

The consumer price index (CPI) eased to 3.3% in August from 4.4% in July. Inflation averaged 3.6% in the first seven months.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects inflation to average 3.4% this year.

“The balance of risks to the outlook has shifted toward the downside given expected reductions in rice prices as more imports arrive under the reduced tariff regime,” the World Bank said.

An executive order cutting tariffs on rice to 15% from 35% took effect in July. This helped rice inflation ease to 14.7% in August from 20.9% in July.

However, the World Bank said higher transport and electricity charges, as well as possible global oil and food price shocks still provide upside risks to the inflation outlook.

“Domestic rice production and prices also remain vulnerable with the La Niña weather phenomenon expected to bring more rainfall and intense typhoons in the remaining months of the year,” World Bank said.

Meanwhile, the World Bank said recent external and domestic developments have given the BSP more space for policy easing.

“Peso appreciation, driven by a wider US interest rate differential, supports domestic disinflation. This gives more room for further normalization of domestic monetary policy,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation in the Philippines will continue to slow down as the end of 2024 approaches?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines inflation slows down to 3.3%

September 8, 2024September 6, 2024carlocarrasco

Inflation in the Philippines went down to 3.3% this past August, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Headline inflation slowed to 3.3 percent in August this year from 4.4 percent in July due to the decrease in food inflation, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.

In a briefing Thursday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said the headline inflation last month was also lower than the 5.3 percent recorded in August 2023.

The latest data brought the year-to-date headline inflation to 3.6 percent which is within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target.

Mapa said the downtrend in the overall inflation in August was primarily brought about by the slower annual increment of food and non-alcoholic beverages at 3.9 percent from 6.4 percent in July.

In particular, food inflation eased to 4.2 percent from 6.7 percent.

The reduction was due to the decline in rice inflation which went down to 14.7 percent from 20.9 percent in July. It was the lowest rice inflation recorded since the 13.2 percent recorded in October 2023.

Rice inflation is expected to go down to a single-digit level this month due to base effects, Mapa said.

Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses meanwhile, which recorded a year-on-year decline of 4.3 percent in August from 6.1 percent increase in July, also contributed to the slowdown in food inflation.

Lower inflation rates were likewise noted in flour, bread, and other bakery products, pasta products and other cereals, 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent; meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 4.0 percent from 4.8 percent; and ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, 5.5 percent from 6.0 percent.

Core inflation meanwhile, which excludes selected food and energy items, slowed down to 2.6 percent in August 2024 from 2.9 percent in the previous month.

In a separate statement, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the continued easing of inflation and stable prices would significantly benefit households and businesses and will promote increased consumer spending and stimulate economic activity.

“The sustained easing of inflation will support growth in household consumption, which elevated prices have long suppressed. Low-income households will benefit from the decline in food inflation, as food constitutes more than half (51.4 percent) of the consumption of the bottom 30 percent of households,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said.

“Moreover, as businesses have identified persistent inflationary pressure as a significant concern, the recent stability and moderation in inflation will encourage investments, especially as borrowing costs are declining. Most importantly, the appetite for business expansion will improve as consumer spending increases,” he added.

Balisacan noted however that while inflation continues to trend downward, primarily due to reduced import tariffs on rice, potential pressures could emerge from higher electricity rates and above-normal weather disturbances.

“The government is prepared to address these pressures to ensure stable inflation. Preparations to counter the effects of the La Niña phenomenon are underway, including improvements in early warning systems, the utilization of communication systems to issue warnings about dam openings, measures to address the potential accelerated speed of livestock diseases, and greater involvement of local government units in information dissemination, are in progress. Notably, the government has allocated PHP15 billion for national risk reduction in 2024,” Balisacan said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that inflation won’t hit 4% over the remaining months of the year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Economic analysts say that the Philippine economy needs to grow more than 6% per quarter to hit 2024 target

May 23, 2024May 14, 2024carlocarrasco

In light of the recent news that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.7% during the 1^st quarter of 2024, economic analysts stated that growth should be more than 6% per quarter over the next three quarters in order to meet the set target of the year, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY should expand by more than 6% in the next three quarters to meet the government’s growth target this year, analysts said.

“The Philippines needs to grow almost 6.1% for the remaining three quarters to reach 6% growth for the entire year, which appears to be a tall order, particularly given the slowdown in household spending in quarter one and the subdued global economic backdrop this year,” Makoto Tsuchiya, an economist at Oxford Economics Japan, said in an e-mail.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, slightly faster than the 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 but below the government’s 6-7% target.

University of Asia and the Pacific Senior Economist Cid L. Terosa said GDP growth should average 6-6.5% for the rest of the year to hit the lower end of the government’s target band.

“We had always been expecting growth to stay subdued largely due to the ‘triple threat’ faced by the economy. Elevated inflation, high borrowing costs and fiscal consolidation are the troika of challenges we face,” ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said in an e-mail.

Household spending, which accounts for nearly three-fourths of economic output, rose by 4.6% in the January-to-March, the slowest since the coronavirus pandemic and weaker than 5.3% in the fourth quarter and 6.4% a year ago.

Mr. Tsuchiya said private consumption lagged due to “economic-wide” pressures on spending in the first three months of the year.

“We believe the softening in household consumption was due to a combination of elevated inflation, tepid confidence and the impact of monetary tightening,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

Inflation quickened to 3.8% in April amid rising food and transport costs. April was the third straight month that inflation accelerated.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that inflation will continue to rise and prevent the Philippines from achieving economic growth of 6% for 2024?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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NEDA says inflation may ease in 2nd half of 2024

May 3, 2024April 24, 2024carlocarrasco

In the view of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), headline inflation may ease in the 2^nd half of 2024 as a result of the subsiding of pressure on food prices connected with the El Niño effect, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

HEADLINE INFLATION may start easing in the second half of the year as pressure on food prices subsides after the El Niño weather event ends, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) chief said.

“In the second half of this year, we expect the pressure from food prices to diminish, because a big part of that food inflation was imported in the sense that food prices, particularly for staple, have been rising in the world market,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told reporters on the sidelines of a forum on Monday afternoon.

Inflation rose for a second straight month in March to 3.7% amid rising food prices. Food inflation accelerated to 5.7%, its fastest pace in four months, mainly driven by rice.

Rice inflation surged to 24.4% in March, the highest since the 24.6% print in February 2009.

“But for rice, (pressure) is expected to decline, (as prices) reached the peak and will start falling after June as the El Niño phenomenon is waning,” Mr. Balisacan said.

The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to persist until May, but the Philippines may continue to feel its impact until August, the Department of Science and Technology said earlier.

Mr. Balisacan said he is hoping that April inflation would fall within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target band, although oil prices pose a risk.

He noted April inflation will likely be close to the 3.7% print recorded in March.

“[The] 2-4% is still a fighting target. Of course, we are watching closely the developments in the Middle East. If the oil prices would be affected by the development, there would be some pressure for us,” Mr. Balisacan said, refer-ring to the conflict between Israel and Iran.

The local statistics agency will release April inflation data on May 7.

Mr. Balisacan said that economic growth in the first half may be affected if inflation continues to breach the target.

“[It’s] a challenge because domestic consumption, particularly home consumption and investment, are very sensitive to inflation and interest rates,” he said.

Earlier this month, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) revised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target range to 6-7% this year from 6.5-7.5% previously amid geopolitical tensions, price upticks, and trade restrictions.

The local statistics agency is set to release first-quarter GDP data on May 9.

“With food prices starting to come down, that should be good for growth. But of course, if the energy prices continue to rise, then it could affect logistics, distribution, and it could impact food prices too. But we hope that it will not be serious,” Mr. Balisacan said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think headline inflation in the Philippines will go down slightly in the 2^nd half of this year? Do you think external economic developments will cause inflation to rise?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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IMF raises Philippine economic growth forecast to 6.2% for 2024

April 30, 2024April 17, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2024 growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.2% which is within national government’s growth range for this year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news article. Some parts in boldface…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its Philippine growth forecast to 6.2 percent for 2024 from its previous estimate of six percent announced last January, citing carryover strength from the last quarter of 2023.

The IMF also expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 6.2 percent in 2025, higher than its January forecast of 6.1 percent.

Based on the April IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released Tuesday, April 16 (Washington time), the IMF also projects Philippine inflation will fall to below four percent this year and in 2025. Its projected year-end inflation is 3.6 percent for 2024 and three percent for 2025 which is within the government target of two percent to four percent.

Meanwhile, the 6.2 percent IMF GDP outlook for 2024 is within the Marcos administration’s growth target of six percent to seven percent but the 2025 projection is below the government target of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent.

IMF’s Resident Representative in the Philippines Ragnar Gudmundsson said in an email that real GDP growth for 2024 was revised slightly to 6.2 percent from six percent in the January WEO because of “carryover from a better-than-expected outturn in the last quarter of 2023.” The local economy grew by 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter 2023, bringing the full-year GDP to 5.6 percent.

As to the 2025 growth outlook, Gudmundsson said the 6.2 percent GDP expansion next year will be “supported by an acceleration in domestic demand and investment.”

“Over the medium term, structural reforms to close infrastructure and education gaps, attract greater FDI (foreign direct investments), and harness benefits from the digital economy should help realize a growth potential of about 6-6.5 percent. These reforms should be complemented by strengthening existing social protection schemes and addressing climate change through a more integrated strategy that includes a carbon pricing scheme,” he said.

Gudmundsson said the 6.2 percent GDP forecast for the Philippines “compares with an average growth rate for ASEAN countries in 2024 of 4.6 percent.”

Based on the latest WEO, the IMF forecast the Asian regional economy will grow by 4.5 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 2025.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippine economy has enough momentum to surpass the 6.2% growth forecast of the IMF for 2024? Do you think inflation in the country will slow down more than what the IMF predicts?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Moody’s Ratings sees the Philippines becoming the 2nd fastest growing Southeast Asian economy this year and in 2025

April 15, 2024April 3, 2024carlocarrasco

For this year and 2025, Moody’s Ratings projects the Philippines will end up as the 2^nd fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES is projected to be the second-fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia this year and in 2025 as domestic demand is expected to remain resilient, according to Moody’s Ratings.

“We have kept unchanged our 2024 and 2025 forecasts for the Philippines and Malaysia and also expect sequentially higher growth in both countries. Domestic demand remains the primary economic growth engine for the Philippines,” it said in a report.

Moody’s Ratings kept its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Philippines at 5.9% this year and 6% in 2025.

However, these projections fall short of the government’s growth targets of 6.5-7.5% for this year and 6.5-8% for next year.

At 5.9%, the Philippines has the second-fastest projected growth in Southeast Asia for 2024, after Vietnam (6%). It is ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.5%) and Thailand (2.8%).

For 2025, the Philippines is again expected to post the second-fastest growth behind Vietnam (6.5%) but ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.8%), and Thailand (3%).

Moody’s Ratings said that growth in domestic demand-driven countries like the Philippines is “increasing more than we previously expected.”

The economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 5.6% in 2023, slower than the 7.6% expansion in 2022 and short of the 6-7% government goal.

Household consumption typically accounts for three-fourths of the Philippine economy. Last year, household spending expanded by 5.6%, much slower than 8.3% in 2022.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Ratings sees inflation averaging 3.8% this year, higher than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 3.6% full-year forecast but within the 2-4% target.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that strong household consumption alone can help the Philippine economy grow stronger than what Moody’s Ratings projected for 2024 and 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation (SLIMTC) anticipates strong Philippine economic growth for 2024

March 4, 2024February 23, 2024carlocarrasco

As far as Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation (SLIMTC) is concerned, the Philippine economy can achieve strong growth this year with favorable economic factors supporting it, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent economic growth target for this year is attainable as the projected decline in interest rates will help boost consumption and investments, a top official of Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation (SLIMTC) said on Thursday.

“It seems like it’s something that’s still attainable. Let’s see when rate cuts are there and especially when those infrastructure projects are in,” said SLIMTC Chief Investment Officer Ritchie Teo in a briefing at the Milestone Building in Bonifacio Global City in Taguig City.

According to Teo, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is projected to cut rates by a total of 100 basis points this year as inflation continues to ease.

Headline inflation, which reached 6 percent in 2023, is projected to settle at 3.8 percent this year.

Teo said the BSP will likely wait for the US Federal Reserve to slash interest rates thus, the first rate cut is forecast to happen around June or the early part of the second half of the year.

“Probably good to say they will only cut when Fed cuts. They will wait for Fed so probably that’s on the latter part. Not in April, maybe in June or early second half,” said Teo.

SLIMTC expects the US Federal Reserve to cut policy rates by 75 to 100 basis points by mid-year as US inflation returns to target.

“They [BSP] will leave some [easing] on the latter part of the year mainly because of risks like the November election. So it’s good to have something on the table,” he added.

Teo said the lower interest rates will boost consumption and private investments, which in turn will help accelerate the country’s economic growth.

“Based on the latest gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, we anticipate 6% growth for 2024, largely driven by higher consumption and private investments,” he said.

Government spending especially on infrastructure projects is also expected to be one of the major growth drivers for this year.

“If you look into the investment side, maybe more on the government, given that they’ve been trailing but for the private investments, especially with the rate cuts, again their spending will improve because with the higher interest rates, some are really holding back,” said Teo.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction about this recent development? Do you think easing inflation, lower interest rates and strong consumption will be enough to help the Philippine economy grow by at least 6% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine economy grew by 5.6% in 2023

February 3, 2024January 31, 2024carlocarrasco

The results are finally in. The economy of the Philippines grew by 5.6% for the year 2023 and this was short of the government’s own declared target of 6% to 7%, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy grew slower at 5.6% in year 2023, falling short of the government’s target as elevated interest rates resulting from high inflation environment dampened consumption, according to data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Wednesday.

The economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) or the total value of goods and services produced in a period, grew by 5.6% from October to December 2023, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa said at a press conference.

This is slower than the 7.1% growth rate seen in the fourth quarter of 2022. It is also a deceleration from the upwardly revised third quarter 2023 GDP growth rate of 6%.

The fourth quarter economic performance brought the full-year 2023 economic growth rate to 5.6%, slower than the 7.6% full-year 2022 GDP growth.

This is below the government’s target range of 6% to 7% for 2023’s full-year GDP growth.

“While this growth is below our target of 6 to 7% for this year, this keeps us in the position of being one of the best-performing economies in Asia,” National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said during the press briefing.

Comparing the growth rates of neighbors in the region, the Marcos administration’s chief economist said the Philippines’ fourth quarter growth surpassed that of China (5.2%) and Malaysia (3.4%) while falling behind Vietnam (6.7%).

“More importantly, our full-year GDP for 2023 is now 8.6% higher than pre-pandemic levels,” Balisacan said.

High inflation, interest rates – The NEDA chief said the slowdown seen in 2023 could be attributed “possibly to effects of past interest rate increases.”

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ policy-setting Monetary Board has raised the benchmark interest rate by 450 basis points since May 2022 to temper inflation, which resulted from global supply disruptions and economic uncertainty following Russia’s full-scale attack and invasion of Ukraine since February 2022.

Notably, the Philippines’ full-year inflation — which measures the rate of increase in the prices of goods and services — accelerated to 6% from 5.8% in 2022.

“The impact of inflation is on Household final consumption expenditure. We saw the impact on food expenditure… directly affected by inflation,” Mapa said.

Spending on food for the whole year grew at 8.1%, slower than 12.4% in 2022.

“We are concerned about the low growth in real spending on food due to high food prices, though it has moderated in recent months,” Balisacan said.

Meanwhile, household final consumption expenditure decelerated to 5.3% from 7% in the previous quarter in 2022.

For the whole year, household spending slowed down to 5.6% from 8.3% in 2022.

“The government will be relentless in managing inflation, especially for basic commodities such as food. Our efforts include improving the efficiency and building resiliency of the agriculture value chain, utilizing strategic trade policy when domestic production is inadequate, and establishing mechanisms to empower consumers to exercise their market power to combat inflation,” Balisacan said.

Likewise, government final consumption expenditure contracted by 1.8% in the fourth quarter, from 3.3% growth in the same period in 2022.

Full year, government spending grew 0.4%, slower than the 4.9% growth in 2022.

Balisacan said the decline in state spending last year was “largely due to the fiscal consolidation program.”

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think 2024 will be a better year of growth for the Philippine economy? Do you think more government spending will boost economic growth without adding much to inflation?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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