economic forecast – Page 4 – Author Carlo Carrasco

IMF sees Philippine economy growing by more than 6% in 2025

October 11, 2024October 3, 2024carlocarrasco

Citing key factors in its research, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the economy of the Philippines will expand by more than 6% in 2025, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy successfully navigated multiple external headwinds in recent years and is expected to grow by over 6 percent next year, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said.

In a briefing at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas office in Manila on Wednesday, IMF Mission Chief Eli Arbatli Saxegaard said the Philippines remained among the best performing economies in the region.

An IMF team led by Saxegaard held meetings in Manila from Sept. 18 to Oct. 2 to conduct discussions on the Philippine economy for the 2024 Article IV Consultation.

Saxegaard said the Philippine economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent this year and will further accelerate to 6.1 percent in 2025.

“This pick-up in growth will be supported by more accommodative financial conditions and higher investment,” she said.

The latest projection, however, was lower than the 6 percent and 6.2 percent previous forecast for 2024 and 2025.

“The downward revision from our July forecast reflects our view that private consumption is going to grow slightly with less momentum. So I would like to highlight that the downgrade is very small, 0.2, and reflects the fact that the first half (of the year) private consumption growth was lower than what we had anticipated. And this might be in part driven by the high food prices,” Saxegaard said.

Despite the revision, Saxegaard said the Philippines continues to be one of the highest growing economies in the region.

“I would also like to highlight that the growth forecast for the Philippines remains one of the highest in the region. It’s 6.1 percent growth for 2025, is a very respectable growth rate… So it’s a very small adjustment reflecting the outturns the first half,” she said.

Downside risks to the country’s growth outlook include a slowdown in major economies that could disrupt trade and financial flows; commodity price volatility and supply shocks; and an escalation of geopolitical tensions or regional conflicts.

Easing of global financial conditions, or faster than anticipated private investment linked to public-private-partnerships and larger foreign direct investment inflows, on the other hand, could stimulate higher growth.

The IMF believes that the Philippine economy holds significant potential with its abundant natural resources, untapped blue economy, and a sizable demographic dividend.

Saxegaard, however, said that unlocking the medium-term growth potential will depend on structural reforms and strengthened social protection programs.

She said priority areas include upgrading infrastructure, making significant investments in healthcare and education, addressing land fragmentation and low productivity in agricultural sector, and enhancing governance.

Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to settle within the government’s target for both 2024 and 2025.

“We believe that the decisive monetary tightening and other measures have helped mitigate inflationary pressures in the Philippines, recent tariff cuts on imported rice and other non-monetary measures helped reduce food prices, and should further reduce headline inflation by the year end,” Saxegaard said.

“For this year, our expectation is that for inflation to average 3.3 percent, and for next year, 3 percent. That would be supported by lower food and core inflation remaining well within the target.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines still has momentum to grow better in 2025 than what the IMF predicted?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

NEDA sees faster Philippines GDP growth in the 2nd half of 2024

September 17, 2024September 12, 2024carlocarrasco

Citing some factors, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) sees faster gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Philippine economy in the 2^nd half of this year which should result in a full 2024 growth rate of 6% to 7%, according to a BusinessWorld new report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second semester could be faster than the 6% average in the first half amid easing inflation and lower policy rates, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.

“Now, with inflation lower, with policy rates lower, with the labor market continuing to be robust, I think we would see an even better second half than in the first half,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of a Senate hearing on Wednesday.

In the second quarter, GDP expanded by 6.3%, bringing the first-half growth to 6%.

“We are expecting 6-7% (GDP growth) for the full year, and I think that the likelihood that we’ll achieve that is now very high,” Mr. Balisacan said.

However, even as inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.3% in August, Mr. Balisacan noted that the economy remains sensitive to inflationary pressures.

Year to date, inflation averaged 3.6%, settling within the 2-4% target range of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The inflation downtrend has allowed the BSP to begin its easing cycle with its first rate cut in nearly four years last August. The Monetary Board lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% from the over 17-year high of 6.25% previously.

Mr. Balisacan noted the impact of lower policy rates “is not almost instantaneous.”

Despite this, the Philippine and US central banks’ expected easing path should help boost investment activity and support growth, he said.

“Especially now that the expectations everywhere with the Fed expected to decrease (interest rates)… then, there is now greater stimulus for us to continue lowering the policy rates,” he said. “With the business community hearing that, they are likely to rethink their investment plans.”

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier signaled another 25-bp cut in the fourth quarter. The last two Monetary Board meetings for the year are scheduled on Oct. 17 and Dec. 19.

Meanwhile, GDP growth is expected to settle within the government’s target range this year, but may fall short of the growth goals in the next two years, according to the latest forecasts from the BSP’s Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to achieve GDP growth of 7% for 2024?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Economic analysts say that the Philippine economy needs to grow more than 6% per quarter to hit 2024 target

May 23, 2024May 14, 2024carlocarrasco

In light of the recent news that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.7% during the 1^st quarter of 2024, economic analysts stated that growth should be more than 6% per quarter over the next three quarters in order to meet the set target of the year, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY should expand by more than 6% in the next three quarters to meet the government’s growth target this year, analysts said.

“The Philippines needs to grow almost 6.1% for the remaining three quarters to reach 6% growth for the entire year, which appears to be a tall order, particularly given the slowdown in household spending in quarter one and the subdued global economic backdrop this year,” Makoto Tsuchiya, an economist at Oxford Economics Japan, said in an e-mail.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, slightly faster than the 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 but below the government’s 6-7% target.

University of Asia and the Pacific Senior Economist Cid L. Terosa said GDP growth should average 6-6.5% for the rest of the year to hit the lower end of the government’s target band.

“We had always been expecting growth to stay subdued largely due to the ‘triple threat’ faced by the economy. Elevated inflation, high borrowing costs and fiscal consolidation are the troika of challenges we face,” ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said in an e-mail.

Household spending, which accounts for nearly three-fourths of economic output, rose by 4.6% in the January-to-March, the slowest since the coronavirus pandemic and weaker than 5.3% in the fourth quarter and 6.4% a year ago.

Mr. Tsuchiya said private consumption lagged due to “economic-wide” pressures on spending in the first three months of the year.

“We believe the softening in household consumption was due to a combination of elevated inflation, tepid confidence and the impact of monetary tightening,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

Inflation quickened to 3.8% in April amid rising food and transport costs. April was the third straight month that inflation accelerated.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that inflation will continue to rise and prevent the Philippines from achieving economic growth of 6% for 2024?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Philippines achieves 5.7% economic growth in 1st quarter of 2024

May 23, 2024May 9, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently it was confirmed that the economy of the Philippines grew by 5.7% in the first quarter of 2024 which is noticeably lower than what was achieved in the same time period a year ago, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy grew by 5.7 percent in the first quarter of the year, surpassing other major economies in the region.

In a briefing on Thursday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said the economic growth during the quarter was higher than the 5.5 percent seen in the last quarter of 2023.

Mapa said, however, it was lower than the 6.4 percent economic growth seen in the first quarter of last year.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan noted that the Philippine economy continues to demonstrate resilience and growth despite the domestic and external headwinds.

“Despite our challenges on both domestic and international fronts, our economy continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and growth. This performance retains the country’s position as a leading force among Asia’s emerging economies,” he said.

Balisacan said the first quarter Philippine gross domestic product growth rate is about the same as Vietnam’s, and surpassed other major economies such as China at 5.3 percent, Indonesia at 5.1 percent, and Malaysia at 3.9 percent.

All major economic indicators which include agriculture, forestry, and fishing; industry; and services posted year-on-year growth in the first quarter at 0.4 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.9 percent.

Household final consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure posted lower growth rates at 4.6 percent and 1.7 percent from a year ago’s 6.4 percent and 6.2 percent.

Balisacan said the slowdown in household spending was due to the elevated prices of major food items and the heat wave.

“Meanwhile, government spending also slowed down, primarily due to the sliding of a large amount of expenditure to April this year, whereas the government made such spending in March last year,” he said.

Gross capital formation also posted a lower growth of 1.3 percent from 12.8 percent last year, while imports of goods and services also slowed to 2.3 percent from 4.2 percent.

Growth of exports of goods and services, however, accelerated to 7.5 percent from 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023. Balisacan said the growth in exports was mainly driven by the recovery in the exports of electronics products.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the national economy will be able to grow at least 6% in each of the next three quarters? Is it possible that the intense summer heat will make 2nd quarter economic growth smaller?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

IMF raises Philippine economic growth forecast to 6.2% for 2024

April 30, 2024April 17, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2024 growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.2% which is within national government’s growth range for this year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news article. Some parts in boldface…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its Philippine growth forecast to 6.2 percent for 2024 from its previous estimate of six percent announced last January, citing carryover strength from the last quarter of 2023.

The IMF also expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 6.2 percent in 2025, higher than its January forecast of 6.1 percent.

Based on the April IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released Tuesday, April 16 (Washington time), the IMF also projects Philippine inflation will fall to below four percent this year and in 2025. Its projected year-end inflation is 3.6 percent for 2024 and three percent for 2025 which is within the government target of two percent to four percent.

Meanwhile, the 6.2 percent IMF GDP outlook for 2024 is within the Marcos administration’s growth target of six percent to seven percent but the 2025 projection is below the government target of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent.

IMF’s Resident Representative in the Philippines Ragnar Gudmundsson said in an email that real GDP growth for 2024 was revised slightly to 6.2 percent from six percent in the January WEO because of “carryover from a better-than-expected outturn in the last quarter of 2023.” The local economy grew by 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter 2023, bringing the full-year GDP to 5.6 percent.

As to the 2025 growth outlook, Gudmundsson said the 6.2 percent GDP expansion next year will be “supported by an acceleration in domestic demand and investment.”

“Over the medium term, structural reforms to close infrastructure and education gaps, attract greater FDI (foreign direct investments), and harness benefits from the digital economy should help realize a growth potential of about 6-6.5 percent. These reforms should be complemented by strengthening existing social protection schemes and addressing climate change through a more integrated strategy that includes a carbon pricing scheme,” he said.

Gudmundsson said the 6.2 percent GDP forecast for the Philippines “compares with an average growth rate for ASEAN countries in 2024 of 4.6 percent.”

Based on the latest WEO, the IMF forecast the Asian regional economy will grow by 4.5 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 2025.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippine economy has enough momentum to surpass the 6.2% growth forecast of the IMF for 2024? Do you think inflation in the country will slow down more than what the IMF predicts?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

DBCC revises Philippine economic growth targets for 2024 and 2025

April 17, 2024April 7, 2024carlocarrasco

As far as the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is concerned, current domestic and global developments justified their recent revision of economic growth targets for the Philippines in 2024 and 2025, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has adjusted its economic growth targets for 2024 and 2025 due to current domestic and global developments.

The DBCC revised downward its gross domestic product (GDP) outlook for 2024 to 6 to 7 percent from the previous range of 6.5 to 7.5 percent, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said in a Palace press briefing on Thursday.

For 2025, the DBCC narrowed the GDP target to 6.5 to 7.5 percent from the previous 6.5 to 8 percent. Balisacan said the growth projection of 6.5 to 8 percent for 2026 to 2028 was retained.

The revised targets growth targets were initially discussed during the DBCC’s 187th meeting on March 22.

The DBCC took into consideration the latest trade outlook of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) amid global trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. approved the latest GDP outlook when he presided over the 16th full Cabinet meeting at Malacañan Palace in Manila on Wednesday.

Balisacan said the Marcos administration remains steadfast in its commitment to sustaining the robust growth trajectory of the Philippine economy.

“Robust macroeconomic fundamentals will support this growth trajectory. These growth targets will sustain the country’s position as one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region,” Balisacan said.

“The government’s dedication transcends meeting statistical targets or numerical benchmarks. We direct our efforts toward realizing a strategic and compelling vision for our nation’s prosperity even as we navigate a global economic landscape marked by various challenges within and without,” he added.

Balisacan also assured the public that the government is still on track to achieving the upper middle income status by 2025.

Opportunities and risks – Balisacan said the country’s economic team discussed the possible opportunities and risk to growth outlook, adding that it identified several domestic and external challenges that are “on the horizon.”

These include climate change and extreme natural disasters such as El Niño that would “continue to pose risks to food security and the stability of food prices,” he said.

“Additionally, risks related to inflation, such as potential adjustments in transport fares, wages, and service utility fees higher than expected, could dampen household consumption,” he said.

Balisacan also cited that global economic slowdown may weaken external demand, while increasing geopolitical and trade tensions could disrupt supply chains.

He added that general elections in major economies could lead to political shifts that may disrupt trade and investment.

“Despite the anticipated risks, we remain optimistic about the country’s sustained growth momentum as we strive for better development outcomes. We aspire to position the Philippines as a frontrunner within our region and beyond—a beacon of inclusive progress and resilience,” Balisacan said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will end up growing at a lower-than-expected pace?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

Moody’s Ratings sees the Philippines becoming the 2nd fastest growing Southeast Asian economy this year and in 2025

April 15, 2024April 3, 2024carlocarrasco

For this year and 2025, Moody’s Ratings projects the Philippines will end up as the 2^nd fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES is projected to be the second-fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia this year and in 2025 as domestic demand is expected to remain resilient, according to Moody’s Ratings.

“We have kept unchanged our 2024 and 2025 forecasts for the Philippines and Malaysia and also expect sequentially higher growth in both countries. Domestic demand remains the primary economic growth engine for the Philippines,” it said in a report.

Moody’s Ratings kept its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Philippines at 5.9% this year and 6% in 2025.

However, these projections fall short of the government’s growth targets of 6.5-7.5% for this year and 6.5-8% for next year.

At 5.9%, the Philippines has the second-fastest projected growth in Southeast Asia for 2024, after Vietnam (6%). It is ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.5%) and Thailand (2.8%).

For 2025, the Philippines is again expected to post the second-fastest growth behind Vietnam (6.5%) but ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.8%), and Thailand (3%).

Moody’s Ratings said that growth in domestic demand-driven countries like the Philippines is “increasing more than we previously expected.”

The economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 5.6% in 2023, slower than the 7.6% expansion in 2022 and short of the 6-7% government goal.

Household consumption typically accounts for three-fourths of the Philippine economy. Last year, household spending expanded by 5.6%, much slower than 8.3% in 2022.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Ratings sees inflation averaging 3.8% this year, higher than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 3.6% full-year forecast but within the 2-4% target.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that strong household consumption alone can help the Philippine economy grow stronger than what Moody’s Ratings projected for 2024 and 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

World Bank sees stronger Philippine economic growth in 2025

April 11, 2024April 2, 2024carlocarrasco

Recently the World Bank (WB) revealed its forecast of stronger economic growth for the Philippines in the year 2025 although still below the projections of the government, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE WORLD BANK (WB) maintained its economic growth forecast for the Philippines this year but raised its 2025 growth projection, amid expectations of higher consumer spending and foreign investments.

In its latest East Asia and Pacific (EAP) Economic Update, the World Bank said it expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.8% this year, the fastest in Southeast Asia along with Cambodia.

The Philippines and Cambodia are seen to expand faster than Vietnam (5.5%), Indonesia (4.9%), Malaysia (4.3%), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (4.0%), Timor-Leste (3.6%), Thailand (2.8%) and Myanmar (1.3%).

For 2025, the World Bank raised its GDP forecast for the Philippines to 5.9% from 5.8%.

However, the World Bank’s growth forecasts for the Philippines are lower than the government’s target of 6.5-7.5% for 2024 and 6.5-8% for 2025 to 2028.

“What has sustained growth in the Philippines, like much of the region, has been consumption and the recovery in services,” WB East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Aaditya Mattoo said at a virtual briefing on Monday.

He noted foreign investment flows into the Philippines might increase after the government implemented significant reforms such as Republic Act No. 11659 or the Public Service Act, which allows full foreign ownership in key sectors such as telecommunications and airlines.

“(The reforms) should begin to pay off in terms of greater foreign investment, which though in the short run… the flows have been less strong than we would have expected,” Mr. Mattoo said.

Climate and geopolitical shocks, as well as elevated inflation and high interest rates are risks to the growth outlook.

“If there is a resurgence in inflation, for example in the United States, which might well see interest rates even higher for longer, that would certainly affect growth throughout the region as we have estimated,” he said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippine economy can grow stronger than the forecast of the World Bank for 2025?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

+++++

	Instapundit »… on Trump Announces $1,776 Christm…
	Shaman Tiers on A Look Back at Fatale #1 …
	Luke on Trump Administration Weighs Hi…
	Instapundit »… on Trump Administration Weighs Hi…
	Roaming Rhonda on Christian Music Appreciation:…

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: