economic dynamism – Page 11 – Author Carlo Carrasco

AMRO sees Philippine economy growing 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025

October 15, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

In its recent update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) sees the economy of the Philippines achieving growth of 6.1% to 6.3% in 2025, according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

THE PHILIPPINES will likely post the second-fastest growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus 3 (ASEAN+3) region this year and in 2025, driven by faster government spending and easing interest rates, according to a regional think tank.

In its October update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines at 6.1% this year and 6.3% next year.

“We didn’t change the forecast for the Philippines. As you can see, we expect growth to be at 6.1%, which will be an improvement from last year’s 5.6%,” AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor told a virtual briefing on Thursday.

“This is mainly because we expect government investment spending to be higher this year, together with services exports,” he said.

The AMRO’s projection is within the government’s 6-7% target for 2024. However, its 2025 forecast is below the government’s 6.5-7.5% goal.

Mr. Khor said Philippine economic growth remains one of the strongest in the ASEAN+3 region, which includes members of the ASEAN, China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.

AMRO’s growth forecast for the Philippines is just behind Vietnam (6.2%), and ahead of Cambodia (5.6%), Indonesia (5.1%), China (5%), Malaysia (4.7%), Laos (4.5%), Brunei Darussalam (4%), Hong Kong (3.3%), Thailand (2.8%), South Korea (2.5%), Singapore (2.4%), Myanmar (1.8%) and Japan (0.5%).

Philippine growth is also projected to be above the projected ASEAN+3 average of 4.2% this year. This was slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.4%.

“Growth for the region will be driven by continued recovery in external trade, resilient domestic demand, and a boost in tourism due to relaxed visa policies in some economies,” AMRO said.

For 2025, the ASEAN+3 region’s growth forecast was upgraded to 4.4% from 4.3% previously, in line with expectations of steady global growth.

“The region is on track to achieve steady growth this year and the next and this will be underpinned by resilient domestic demand and the ongoing recovery in exports,” AMRO Principal Economist Allen Ng told the briefing.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation the Philippine economy has enough momentum to grow better in 2025 than what AMRO predicted?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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US Dollar reserves of the Philippines reach all-time high of almost $112 billion

October 15, 2024October 8, 2024carlocarrasco

Based on the preliminary data of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the American Dollar reserves of the Philippines reached $111.981 billion (as of September 2024 specifically) which counts as a new all-time high, according to a Manila Bulletin business news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from Manila Bulletin report. Some parts in boldface…

The country’s US dollar stock climbed to its highest level of $111.981 billion as of end-September 2024, surpassing the previous record of $108.794 billion in 2021, as the central bank was accumulating foreign exchange and assets to boost external reserves and defend the local currency.

Based on preliminary data released by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Monday, Oct. 7, the gross international reserves (GIR) increased by 14.13 percent or by $13.865 billion year-on-year compared to $98.116 billion same time in 2023.

The GIR also rose by 3.82 percent or by $4.125 billion versus end-August this year’s reserves of $107.857 billion.

The BSP-monitored GIR are foreign assets of the BSP invested in foreign-issued securities, monetary gold, and foreign exchange.

The latest GIR level is “more than adequate external liquidity buffer” that is equivalent to 8.1 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. It is also about 6.3 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 4.4 times based on residual maturity, said the BSP.

Basically, a GIR is adequate if it can finance at least three-months’ worth of the country’s imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. This was based on international standards. The GIR is also viewed as more than sufficient if it provides at least 100 percent cover for the payment of the country’s foreign liabilities, public and private, falling due within the immediate 12-month period.

The reserves were higher in end-September because of the government’s net foreign currency deposits with the BSP that includes proceeds from the issuance of ROP Global Bonds.

The GIR likewise got a boost from the BSP’s gold holdings which had a higher value with the increase in the prices of gold in the global market. The BSP’s net income also increased due to its investments overseas.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? What is the first thing that comes to your mind when the Philippines’ US Dollar reserves grow? Does this development make you feel comfortable when it comes to banking, investing or running a local business? Are you satisfied with the way the BSP has been moving with regards to financial and economy activities?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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IMF sees Philippine economy growing by more than 6% in 2025

October 11, 2024October 3, 2024carlocarrasco

Citing key factors in its research, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the economy of the Philippines will expand by more than 6% in 2025, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy successfully navigated multiple external headwinds in recent years and is expected to grow by over 6 percent next year, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said.

In a briefing at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas office in Manila on Wednesday, IMF Mission Chief Eli Arbatli Saxegaard said the Philippines remained among the best performing economies in the region.

An IMF team led by Saxegaard held meetings in Manila from Sept. 18 to Oct. 2 to conduct discussions on the Philippine economy for the 2024 Article IV Consultation.

Saxegaard said the Philippine economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent this year and will further accelerate to 6.1 percent in 2025.

“This pick-up in growth will be supported by more accommodative financial conditions and higher investment,” she said.

The latest projection, however, was lower than the 6 percent and 6.2 percent previous forecast for 2024 and 2025.

“The downward revision from our July forecast reflects our view that private consumption is going to grow slightly with less momentum. So I would like to highlight that the downgrade is very small, 0.2, and reflects the fact that the first half (of the year) private consumption growth was lower than what we had anticipated. And this might be in part driven by the high food prices,” Saxegaard said.

Despite the revision, Saxegaard said the Philippines continues to be one of the highest growing economies in the region.

“I would also like to highlight that the growth forecast for the Philippines remains one of the highest in the region. It’s 6.1 percent growth for 2025, is a very respectable growth rate… So it’s a very small adjustment reflecting the outturns the first half,” she said.

Downside risks to the country’s growth outlook include a slowdown in major economies that could disrupt trade and financial flows; commodity price volatility and supply shocks; and an escalation of geopolitical tensions or regional conflicts.

Easing of global financial conditions, or faster than anticipated private investment linked to public-private-partnerships and larger foreign direct investment inflows, on the other hand, could stimulate higher growth.

The IMF believes that the Philippine economy holds significant potential with its abundant natural resources, untapped blue economy, and a sizable demographic dividend.

Saxegaard, however, said that unlocking the medium-term growth potential will depend on structural reforms and strengthened social protection programs.

She said priority areas include upgrading infrastructure, making significant investments in healthcare and education, addressing land fragmentation and low productivity in agricultural sector, and enhancing governance.

Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to settle within the government’s target for both 2024 and 2025.

“We believe that the decisive monetary tightening and other measures have helped mitigate inflationary pressures in the Philippines, recent tariff cuts on imported rice and other non-monetary measures helped reduce food prices, and should further reduce headline inflation by the year end,” Saxegaard said.

“For this year, our expectation is that for inflation to average 3.3 percent, and for next year, 3 percent. That would be supported by lower food and core inflation remaining well within the target.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines still has momentum to grow better in 2025 than what the IMF predicted?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines inflation down to 1.9% this past September, lowest since May 2020

October 7, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

The inflation rate of the Philippines fell down to 1.9% for the month of September 2024 which marks a 4-year-low, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

The country’s headline inflation further eased to 1.9 percent in September this year, the lowest recorded since the 1.6 percent in May 2020.

Headline inflation was at 3.3 percent in August and 6.1 percent in September last year.

In a briefing on Friday, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said the latest data brought the year-to-date inflation to 3.4 percent, which is well within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target.

Mapa said the downtrend in the overall inflation was due to the slower annual increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages at 1.4 percent from 3.9 percent in August.

Food inflation, in particular, eased to 1.4 percent in September from 4.2 percent the previous month.

Mapa said the deceleration in food inflation was due to the slower inflation rate of rice at 5.7 percent from 14.7 percent in August.

Other contributors to the lower food inflation include the faster decline in the inflation of vegetables, tubers, cooking bananas, and pulses.

Lower inflation rates were also reported for corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, and ready-made food and other food products.

In a separate statement, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) assured the public that the government remains committed to stabilizing commodity prices.

“The continued slowdown in inflation is expected to boost consumer confidence, driving higher spending and consumption and fueling business expansion,” said NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan.

“Additionally, easing food prices will relieve low-income households, enabling them to allocate more to other essential needs such as education and health. We will sustain the momentum as we assure the public that we will continue to pursue and carry out strategies to maintain stable prices of food and other commodities,” he added.

Balisacan said the Executive Order issued by President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., which reduced the rice tariffs to 15 percent, helped bring down rice prices.

“While we expect lower tariffs to reduce rice prices, we should continuously support local production through increased agricultural funding to complement this short-term measure,” Balisacan said.

The NEDA chief assured the public that the government is ready to address other inflationary pressures affecting food, such as the continuing prevalence of African swine fever (ASF), through the delivery of vaccines.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the lower headline inflation will be helpful for local businesses that have been struggling with cutting down their expenses?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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World Bank says that Philippines inflation will likely slow down this year

October 6, 2024October 4, 2024carlocarrasco

The World Bank (WB) recently announced that it sees inflation in the Philippines likely to go down this year and fall within the target range set by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), according to a BusinessWorld news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE INFLATION is likely to slow this year to fall within the central bank’s target range, but higher transport charges and domestic rice production pose upside risks, the World Bank said.

In its latest monthly update, the World Bank said that the entry of more rice imports under lower tariffs should help keep inflation within the government’s 2-4% target.

“Inflation resumed its downward trend in August and is on track to fall within target this year,” the Washington-based lender said.

The consumer price index (CPI) eased to 3.3% in August from 4.4% in July. Inflation averaged 3.6% in the first seven months.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects inflation to average 3.4% this year.

“The balance of risks to the outlook has shifted toward the downside given expected reductions in rice prices as more imports arrive under the reduced tariff regime,” the World Bank said.

An executive order cutting tariffs on rice to 15% from 35% took effect in July. This helped rice inflation ease to 14.7% in August from 20.9% in July.

However, the World Bank said higher transport and electricity charges, as well as possible global oil and food price shocks still provide upside risks to the inflation outlook.

“Domestic rice production and prices also remain vulnerable with the La Niña weather phenomenon expected to bring more rainfall and intense typhoons in the remaining months of the year,” World Bank said.

Meanwhile, the World Bank said recent external and domestic developments have given the BSP more space for policy easing.

“Peso appreciation, driven by a wider US interest rate differential, supports domestic disinflation. This gives more room for further normalization of domestic monetary policy,” it said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think inflation in the Philippines will continue to slow down as the end of 2024 approaches?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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NEDA sees faster Philippines GDP growth in the 2nd half of 2024

September 17, 2024September 12, 2024carlocarrasco

Citing some factors, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) sees faster gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Philippine economy in the 2^nd half of this year which should result in a full 2024 growth rate of 6% to 7%, according to a BusinessWorld new report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second semester could be faster than the 6% average in the first half amid easing inflation and lower policy rates, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.

“Now, with inflation lower, with policy rates lower, with the labor market continuing to be robust, I think we would see an even better second half than in the first half,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of a Senate hearing on Wednesday.

In the second quarter, GDP expanded by 6.3%, bringing the first-half growth to 6%.

“We are expecting 6-7% (GDP growth) for the full year, and I think that the likelihood that we’ll achieve that is now very high,” Mr. Balisacan said.

However, even as inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.3% in August, Mr. Balisacan noted that the economy remains sensitive to inflationary pressures.

Year to date, inflation averaged 3.6%, settling within the 2-4% target range of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The inflation downtrend has allowed the BSP to begin its easing cycle with its first rate cut in nearly four years last August. The Monetary Board lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% from the over 17-year high of 6.25% previously.

Mr. Balisacan noted the impact of lower policy rates “is not almost instantaneous.”

Despite this, the Philippine and US central banks’ expected easing path should help boost investment activity and support growth, he said.

“Especially now that the expectations everywhere with the Fed expected to decrease (interest rates)… then, there is now greater stimulus for us to continue lowering the policy rates,” he said. “With the business community hearing that, they are likely to rethink their investment plans.”

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier signaled another 25-bp cut in the fourth quarter. The last two Monetary Board meetings for the year are scheduled on Oct. 17 and Dec. 19.

Meanwhile, GDP growth is expected to settle within the government’s target range this year, but may fall short of the growth goals in the next two years, according to the latest forecasts from the BSP’s Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to achieve GDP growth of 7% for 2024?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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CMCI 2024: Parañaque falls down to 27th place among Highly Urbanized Cities on Competitiveness, finishes dead last on Government Efficiency

August 26, 2024September 1, 2025carlocarrasco

The latest results of the Cities and Municipalities Competitiveness Index (CMCI) for the year 2024 showed that the City of Parañaque fell down to 27^th place among the 33 Highly Urbanized Cities (HUCs) in terms of Competitiveness when compared to last year’s results. Also for the 2^nd straight year, Parañaque finished dead last at 33^rd place in the category of Government Efficiency.

Parañaque City, which was the 24th Most Competitive HUC a year ago, scored 35.3478 points in total on the main category of Competitiveness among HUCs ranking 27^th out of 33 HUCs overall.

*The overall ranking of Parañaque City among the 33 highly urbanized cities (HUCs) nationwide for the 2024 CMCI.*

Along the way, the city scored 7.9090 points on Government Efficiency for 33^rd place, 6.5970 points on Innovation for 31^st place, 11.1401 points on Resiliency for 30^th place, 4.6574 points on Infrastructure for 23^rd place and 5.0443 points on Economic Dynamism for 12^th place.

To see the full results, complete rankings and other details of the CMCI 2024 research, click https://cmci.dti.gov.ph/rankings-data.php?unit=Highly%20Urbanized%20Cities

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? If you are a resident of Parañaque City, do you think the City Government has been doing something wrong which resulted in a lower competitiveness ranking this year? Has your City Government been transparent with regards to rendering services to you?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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CMCI 2024: Muntinlupa is the 4th Most Competitive Highly Urbanized City of the nation, 1st on Innovation

August 25, 2024August 24, 2024carlocarrasco

The latest results of the Cities and Municipalities Competitiveness Index (CMCI) for the year 2024 showed that the City of Muntinlupa is now the 4^th Most Competitive Highly Urbanized City (HUC) of the nation as well as a very high finisher among other categories including 1^st place on Innovation.

Muntinlupa City, which was the 5^th Most Competitive last year, scored 53.5967 points in total on Competitiveness among HUCs ranking 4^th out of 33 overall.

Along the way, the city scored 12.2489 points for 1^st place on the category of Innovation, 15.2697 points on Resiliency for 2^nd place, 10.1075 points on Infrastructure for 3^rd place, 11.9714 points on Government Efficiency for 6^th place, and 3.9992 points on Economic Dynamism for 17^th place. On the category of the Most Improved Rankings for 2024 among HUCs, Muntinlupa finished 7^th place.

In addition, the City of Muntinlupa won awards during the Creative Cities and Municipalities Congress held on August 23, 2024, according to a Manila Bulletin news report. The awards are related to the CMCI 2024 research and results.

To see the full results, complete rankings and other details of the CMCI 2024 research, click https://cmci.dti.gov.ph/rankings-data.php?unit=Highly%20Urbanized%20Cities

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? If you are a resident of Muntinlupa City, are you delighted to see your city being very competitive with other HUCs of the nation? Do you think Muntinlupa City has what it takes to become the most competitive city of all in next year’s CMCI?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines 2024 2nd quarter economic growth at 6.3%

August 9, 2024August 8, 2024carlocarrasco

The economy of the Philippines grew at a fast 6.3% in the 2^nd quarter (April to June 2024) according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. The declared quarterly growth rate placed the Philippines ahead of Malaysia, Indonesia and China.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

Philippine economic growth accelerated to 6.3 percent in the second quarter of the year from 4.3 percent in the same period last year, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said in a briefing on Thursday.

Mapa said economic growth during the period was also higher than the 5.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth recorded in the first quarter of the year.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the latest economic growth makes the Philippines one of the fastest-growing economies in the region.

“This performance keeps our position as one of Asia’s best-performing major emerging economies. For East Asia’s economies that have released their second quarter 2024 GDP growth, we follow behind Vietnam at 6.9 percent while leading Malaysia at 5.8 percent, Indonesia at 5.0 percent, and China at 4.7 percent,” said Balisacan.

Among major economic sectors, industry and services grew by 7.7 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, however, contracted by 2.3 percent due to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon.

Household final consumption expenditure grew by 4.6 percent while government final consumption expenditure expanded by 10.7 percent.

Balisacan said the increase in government final consumption expenditure was driven by the timely implementation and expanded coverage programs of various social protection, health, and education programs, and preparatory activities for the 2025 national and local elections. Gross capital formation went up by 11.5 percent.

Public construction sustained double-digit growth of 21.8 percent as the government’s infrastructure agencies expedited the rollout of the Marcos Jr. administration’s construction and rehabilitation projects.

Exports of goods and services rose by 4.2 percent while imports of goods and services went up by 5.2 percent.

On track to meet target – “This significant development brings our real GDP growth to 6.0 percent for the first half of the year, keeping us on track to achieve our target growth rate of 6 to 7 percent for 2024,” said Balisacan.

He said the economy would need to grow by at least 6 percent in the second half to attain the lower end of the target for 2024.

Balisacan assured that the government would ensure the benefits of economic growth would be shared equitably.

“President Marcos began his 2024 State of the Nation Address with one of our most urgent priorities: the government will continue its push for food security by managing food inflation with appropriate supply-side measures,” he said.

He said the government was committed to utilizing strategic trade policy to augment insufficient domestic food supplies to meet rising demand.

The government will also expedite the rollout of social protection programs for the poor and vulnerable sectors, including enhancements to the Department of Social Welfare and Development’s Food Stamp Program and the 4Ps Program.

Aside from these, the government will also focus on raising agricultural productivity and improving farmers’ incomes and competitiveness.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough momentum to achieve a growth rate of at least 6.5% for the entire year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Nuclear power is key to preventing power shortages in the Philippines

May 24, 2024May 13, 2024carlocarrasco

If the Philippines is to keep growing economically in the long-term, it needs to have abundant energy and that makes nuclear power essential (for related posts, click here, here, here and here). That being said, the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI) recently stated that nuclear power can prevent power shortages in the country, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI), on Tuesday, May 7, said nuclear energy sources can help prevent energy shortages in the Philippines due to its “capacity factor” and “energy density.”

In a PTV interview, PNRI Executive Director Carlo Arcilla said nuclear power has two factors—energy density and capacity.

Energy density means that even a tiny amount of nuclear fuel, about the size of a finger, contains an incredible amount of energy, he said.

“If you had several tons of coal, it’s that powerful. It’s a very, very concentrated power,” he said in a mix of English and Filipino.

Arcilla cited the second factor, “capacity factor,” explaining that the availability of a nuclear plant is approximately 90 percent of the time.

“When you’re running a nuclear plant, it’s reliably available about 90 percent of the time, regardless of the weather,” he said.

He further explained this by citing the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant as an example, along with other power plants built in the 1980s.

“Similar plants in Slovenia, South Korea, and Brazil have been in operation for 40 years and are even being relicensed for another 20 years,” he said.

“These plants can run for an impressive 18 months straight without needing to refuel. The amount of fuel they require is roughly equivalent to what you’d put in a jeep, and they keep running continuously,” he added.

The PNRI official then emphasized that nuclear energy production produces no emissions, including no carbon dioxide. The cost of running such a plant is estimated to be around 30 million dollars.

If that were compared to a coal plant running for 18 months at 620 megawatts (MW), it would be the same.

“The amount of coal needed would fill 50 Panamax ships. Each Panamax ship carries 50,000 tons. That’s 50 of them. Not to mention the CO2 (carbon dioxide). The cost of importing that coal would be around 800 million US dollars,” he explained

The PNRI is a research and development institute under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST)

Furthermore, Arcilla pointed out that even though nuclear power plants are initially costly to build, they have a lifespan of up to 80 years.

“America, for example, has 94 operating nuclear plants, average age, 60 years. Supplying 20 percent of America’s energy. Many of them don’t even know they have nuclear,” he said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think that nuclear power is the key to ensuring abundant amounts of energy that the Philippines will need to for economic growth as well as the needs of the people? Are members of your local community still living with a fear of nuclear power?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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