In its latest economic analysis, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says that the economy of the Philippines could grow by about 6% in 2027 provided that investments – both public and private – would regain strength, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY could return to around 6% growth by 2027 if public and private investments rebound, according to Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries.
“I think (the drivers are a) kind of a little of everything, but return to high investment, public and private, I think would be, to me, the key driver,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an event on Jan. 23.
Last December, the ADB slashed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5% for 2025, from 5.6% previously. For 2026, the ADB trimmed its GDP projection to 5.3% from 5.7% previously.
This comes after a corruption scandal dampened government spending, household consumption, investor confidence and economic activity last year.
The ADB will release its updated economic outlook in April, which will include a 2027 growth forecast.
Mr. Jeffries warned that the cut in Department of Public Works and Highways’ (DPWH) budget this year, could trigger a “big slowdown” in locally funded projects.
“I guess the main variable for 2026 was how fast does the public investment recover? We were thinking maybe two quarters, so it’ll start reviving,” he said.
In a meeting with Public Works Secretary Vivencio “Vince” B. Dizon in December, Mr. Jeffries said they raised concerns about “paralysis,” where key projects risked getting stuck.
“What we’ve heard is they’re trying to make sure the priority projects are not stuck and keep moving forward quickly. I think it’s a twofold exercise,” he said. “It’s cleaning up the problem while full steam ahead on some of the other projects that weren’t a problem.”
Mr. Dizon earlier said the DPWH aims to boost spending while ensuring funds are used wisely and focus on prioritizing the “basics” such as road and bridge maintenance and unfinished projects. The agency’s target spend is set between P200 billion and P250 billion for the first quarter, he added.
Meanwhile, Mr. Jeffries said the Philippines must raise the share of exports in the economy to support long-term growth, as well as diversify its base, and boost resilience.
“It’s not something that happens overnight. It’ll be a combination of policies and attracting investment and improving the business environment and all of those things combined,” Mr. Jeffries said. “But neighbors have done it and the Philippines can do that.”
He noted the Philippines was shielded from external shocks, largely because exports remain a relatively small part of the economy.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the ADB’s analysis for the Philippines is correct? Do you think the economy of the Philippines has enough strength to grow by at least 6% in 2027?
You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.
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