By pointing to the trade policies of the United States and weak private spending, ANZ Research says that the economic growth of the Philippines for 2025 could slow down to 5%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. ANZ also downgraded its growth forecasts for many other Asian economies.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…
PHILIPPINE economic growth is expected to slow to 5% this year due to the fallout from the Trump administration’s trade policy and weak private spending, ANZ Research said.
In its latest Asia Insight report, ANZ cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the Philippines to 5% this year from 5.7% previously. It also lowered its 2026 GDP projection to 5.5% from 6% previously.
Both forecasts would fall short of the 6-8% growth target set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee from this year to the next.
“Our new forecasts incorporate our expectations of direct and indirect impact of tariffs, bilateral trade agreements between the US and individual economies, revised growth estimates for mainland China and the US and potential policy response,” ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur said.
The downward revisions constitute a “durable shock to regional growth as US tariffs imply a long-term reduction in global trade,” he added.
President Donald J. Trump slapped reciprocal tariffs on most of its trading partners earlier this month but suspended these higher tariffs for 90 days. Only the baseline 10% tariff remains in effect.
The Philippines was hit with a 17% reciprocal tariff, though this was the second lowest in Southeast Asia, just after Singapore.
“It is likely that some Asian economies will negotiate down or even do away with the April 2 reciprocal tariffs owing to the potential damage to US growth,” Mr. Mathur said. “Even so, the uncertainty around US trade policies will constrain business activity, including hiring and investment.”
ANZ slashed its growth projection for Asia, excluding China and India, to 2.9% this year from 3.4% previously. It also trimmed its 2026 forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% previously.
ANZ also downgraded its GDP projections for all countries it covers, namely India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Vietnam.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines will be able to negotiate with the United States on tariff and trade matters soon?
You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.
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