With the ongoing war in the Middle East, the hiked prices of fuel and other problems happening already, the World Bank (WB) sees the economy of the Philippines achieving gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.6% this year and 5.3% next year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of the Manila Bulletin. Some parts in boldface…
Philippine economic growth would likely remain below its potential of at least six percent until the end of the Marcos Jr. administration, according to the latest forecasts by the World Bank.
Documents on the latest $800-million Philippines Growth and Jobs Development Policy Loan (DPL) 1, approved by the Washington-based multilateral lender last week, showed a projected 4.6- percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the country in 2026, inching up from the post-pandemic-low of 4.4 percent in 2025. This forecast is below the government’s downgraded five- to six-percent growth target for the year.
For 2027, the World Bank expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.3 percent, which would also be lower than next year’s downscaled 5.5- to 6.5-percent goal.
By the time President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. steps down and turns over to a new administration in 2028, World Bank projections showed 5.5-percent GDP growth, still below the six- to seven-percent target.
“The growth outlook remains moderate over the near term, with activity expected to remain subdued in 2026 before gradually strengthening… The impact of the government’s anti-corruption efforts and a significantly lower infrastructure budget in 2026 is expected to weigh on public investment,” the World Bank said.
The lender added that a smaller statistical carry-over into 2026 signals weaker initial momentum, with growth projected to average 5.2 percent in 2026 to 2028, driven by recovering private domestic demand amid easing inflation and financing conditions.
“Private consumption is expected to benefit from stable labor income and improved confidence, while private investment gradually strengthens alongside improved credit conditions and a normalization of public capital spending. External demand, particularly for electronics and artificial intelligence (AI)-related exports, is projected to remain supportive, although global trade uncertainty presents downside risks,” the document said.
This World Bank report was prepared in mid-February before it was disclosed last week, which means that the impact of the war in the Middle East was not yet taken into consideration by the lender in its GDP growth forecasts.
At that time, the World Bank projected headline inflation to stay within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) two- to four-percent target range, averaging about 2.8 percent in 2026 to 2028.
Before the domestic price pressures wrought by the Middle East conflict that sent global oil prices soaring, the World Bank believed that the BSP would likely keep a neutral-to-supportive policy stance while balancing the still-negative output gap against risks from exchange-rate volatility and food inflation. A negative output gap refers to the economy expanding below its potential, which, for the Philippines, is estimated at about six percent annually.
Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economic growth predictions of the World Bank for the Philippines will turn out to be true in the near future? Do you think there is any hope left for the economy of the Philippines to achieve annual GDP growth of 6%? Do you think more foreign investors will be convinced to invest in the Philippines this year?
You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.
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