gross domestic product (GDP) – Page 7

Dutch bank predicts Philippine economy will grow 5.4% this year

March 8, 2024February 28, 2024carlocarrasco

ING, a bank and financial services firm based in the Netherlands, published its forecast that the economy of the Philippines will grow by 5.4% this year, according to a Manila Bulletin news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the Manila Bulletin news report. Some parts in boldface…

Dutch bank ING is projecting a moderate 5.4 percent growth for the Philippines this year, saying the impact of the central bank’s rate hikes could have propelled robust growth but it is handicapped by “soft” capital formation.

The 5.4 percent growth estimate is considerably lower than the government target of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent this year. It is also lower than 2023’s full-year 5.6 percent growth, which was also below the government’s goal of six percent to seven percent.

ING senior economist Nicholas Mapa, in an ING Manila’s economic briefing on Monday, Feb. 19, said domestic growth seems strong this year but “below par as handicaps persist.”

He said one of these handicaps is the lack in capital formation as an impact of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) cumulative rate hikes since May 2022, for a combined 450 basis points to bring the target reverse repurchase rate or the policy rate to 6.5 percent.

Because of this, Mapa said the “missing link” for a within-target growth is private investment and a National Government spending spree not hampered by a “soft” capital formation.

Capital formation is an integral part of GDP growth. However, capital formation and growth prospects were soft in 2023 due to rate hikes and it could persist this year.

For 2024, ING also forecasts inflation of three percent versus an actual six percent in 2023. The forecast is within the BSP’s target of two percent to four percent. It is also lower compared to the risk-adjusted forecast of the BSP of 3.9 percent for 2024.

Mapa also predict the exchange rate will end with a stronger peso this year at P54.90 since he also expects the BSP’s Monetary Board will cut the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) from 6.5 percent to six percent, thereby boosting the peso performance.

Based on his presentation during the briefing, Mapa expects the first quarter GDP will perform better at six percent compared to the fourth quarter 2023 GDP of 5.6 percent. By the second quarter, he thinks the economy will grow by 6.3 percent but then will drop to 4.7 percent by the third quarter and further down to 4.5 percent in fourth quarter this year.

He said the rate hikes impact bank lending as well as GDP growth, and that the “elevated rates (has kept) capital formation subdued after years of underinvestment.”

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction about this recent development? Do you think ING’s prediction will turn out correct by the end of this year? Do you think that the economy of the Philippines can somehow grow by at least 6% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation (SLIMTC) anticipates strong Philippine economic growth for 2024

March 4, 2024February 23, 2024carlocarrasco

As far as Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation (SLIMTC) is concerned, the Philippine economy can achieve strong growth this year with favorable economic factors supporting it, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent economic growth target for this year is attainable as the projected decline in interest rates will help boost consumption and investments, a top official of Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation (SLIMTC) said on Thursday.

“It seems like it’s something that’s still attainable. Let’s see when rate cuts are there and especially when those infrastructure projects are in,” said SLIMTC Chief Investment Officer Ritchie Teo in a briefing at the Milestone Building in Bonifacio Global City in Taguig City.

According to Teo, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is projected to cut rates by a total of 100 basis points this year as inflation continues to ease.

Headline inflation, which reached 6 percent in 2023, is projected to settle at 3.8 percent this year.

Teo said the BSP will likely wait for the US Federal Reserve to slash interest rates thus, the first rate cut is forecast to happen around June or the early part of the second half of the year.

“Probably good to say they will only cut when Fed cuts. They will wait for Fed so probably that’s on the latter part. Not in April, maybe in June or early second half,” said Teo.

SLIMTC expects the US Federal Reserve to cut policy rates by 75 to 100 basis points by mid-year as US inflation returns to target.

“They [BSP] will leave some [easing] on the latter part of the year mainly because of risks like the November election. So it’s good to have something on the table,” he added.

Teo said the lower interest rates will boost consumption and private investments, which in turn will help accelerate the country’s economic growth.

“Based on the latest gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, we anticipate 6% growth for 2024, largely driven by higher consumption and private investments,” he said.

Government spending especially on infrastructure projects is also expected to be one of the major growth drivers for this year.

“If you look into the investment side, maybe more on the government, given that they’ve been trailing but for the private investments, especially with the rate cuts, again their spending will improve because with the higher interest rates, some are really holding back,” said Teo.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction about this recent development? Do you think easing inflation, lower interest rates and strong consumption will be enough to help the Philippine economy grow by at least 6% this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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UBS Global Research and Evidence Lab sees Philippine GDP growing 5.7% this year

February 26, 2024February 16, 2024carlocarrasco

A research firm recently raised its forecast of the Philippine economy for 2024 predicting a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.7% this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld report. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE gross domestic product (GDP) may grow by 5.7% this year following the economy’s faster-than-expected expansion in the fourth quarter of 2023, UBS Global Research and Evidence Lab said.

The research firm raised its 2024 Philippine GDP growth forecast from 5.3% previously, Grace Lim, an economist from UBS, said in a note. It also hiked its 2025 projection to 6% from 5.8%.

“This largely reflects carryover effects from the fourth quarter of 2023, rather than a strong bounce in sequential growth momentum through 2024,” Ms. Lim said.

Both forecasts are below the government’s growth targets of 6.5-7.5% for this year and 6.5-8% for 2025.

The Philippine economy grew by 5.6% in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year growth to 5.6% in 2023. This was slower than the 7.6% expansion in 2022 and below the government’s 6-7% goal.

At 5.7%, economic growth this year would be faster than the 2023 pace but is still slower than the pre-pandemic average of 6.6%, Ms. Lim noted.

“On the bright side, we highlight that inflation has been trending down nicely, surprising consensus on the downside for three months in a row,” she said. “Should downside risks to inflation materialize, consumption could surprise on the upside.”

Inflation eased to 2.8% in January from 3.9% in December and 8.7% in the same month a year ago. This was the slowest print since October 2020 and marked the second straight month that inflation settled within the 2-4% target band.

Ms. Lim noted that consumer spending remained robust last year despite inflationary pressures and amid resilient labor market conditions.

In 2023, household spending grew by 5.6%, slower than 8.3% in 2022. Household consumption typically accounts for three-fourths of GDP.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to a record low of 4.3% from the 5.4% recorded in 2022.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent report? Do you think the Philippine economy will grow below the national government’s targets for 2024? Do you think UBS’ forecast of 5.7% growth will turn out correct by the end of this year?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippine economy grew by 5.6% in 2023

February 3, 2024January 31, 2024carlocarrasco

The results are finally in. The economy of the Philippines grew by 5.6% for the year 2023 and this was short of the government’s own declared target of 6% to 7%, according to a GMA Network news report.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy grew slower at 5.6% in year 2023, falling short of the government’s target as elevated interest rates resulting from high inflation environment dampened consumption, according to data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Wednesday.

The economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) or the total value of goods and services produced in a period, grew by 5.6% from October to December 2023, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa said at a press conference.

This is slower than the 7.1% growth rate seen in the fourth quarter of 2022. It is also a deceleration from the upwardly revised third quarter 2023 GDP growth rate of 6%.

The fourth quarter economic performance brought the full-year 2023 economic growth rate to 5.6%, slower than the 7.6% full-year 2022 GDP growth.

This is below the government’s target range of 6% to 7% for 2023’s full-year GDP growth.

“While this growth is below our target of 6 to 7% for this year, this keeps us in the position of being one of the best-performing economies in Asia,” National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said during the press briefing.

Comparing the growth rates of neighbors in the region, the Marcos administration’s chief economist said the Philippines’ fourth quarter growth surpassed that of China (5.2%) and Malaysia (3.4%) while falling behind Vietnam (6.7%).

“More importantly, our full-year GDP for 2023 is now 8.6% higher than pre-pandemic levels,” Balisacan said.

High inflation, interest rates – The NEDA chief said the slowdown seen in 2023 could be attributed “possibly to effects of past interest rate increases.”

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ policy-setting Monetary Board has raised the benchmark interest rate by 450 basis points since May 2022 to temper inflation, which resulted from global supply disruptions and economic uncertainty following Russia’s full-scale attack and invasion of Ukraine since February 2022.

Notably, the Philippines’ full-year inflation — which measures the rate of increase in the prices of goods and services — accelerated to 6% from 5.8% in 2022.

“The impact of inflation is on Household final consumption expenditure. We saw the impact on food expenditure… directly affected by inflation,” Mapa said.

Spending on food for the whole year grew at 8.1%, slower than 12.4% in 2022.

“We are concerned about the low growth in real spending on food due to high food prices, though it has moderated in recent months,” Balisacan said.

Meanwhile, household final consumption expenditure decelerated to 5.3% from 7% in the previous quarter in 2022.

For the whole year, household spending slowed down to 5.6% from 8.3% in 2022.

“The government will be relentless in managing inflation, especially for basic commodities such as food. Our efforts include improving the efficiency and building resiliency of the agriculture value chain, utilizing strategic trade policy when domestic production is inadequate, and establishing mechanisms to empower consumers to exercise their market power to combat inflation,” Balisacan said.

Likewise, government final consumption expenditure contracted by 1.8% in the fourth quarter, from 3.3% growth in the same period in 2022.

Full year, government spending grew 0.4%, slower than the 4.9% growth in 2022.

Balisacan said the decline in state spending last year was “largely due to the fiscal consolidation program.”

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think 2024 will be a better year of growth for the Philippine economy? Do you think more government spending will boost economic growth without adding much to inflation?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines’ credit ratings affirmed by S&P Global Ratings

December 4, 2023November 30, 2023carlocarrasco

The credit ratings of the Philippines for both long-term and short term were affirmed by the US-based S&P Global Ratings which also saw stronger economic growth for the country in the next few years, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface…

United States-based S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday affirmed the Philippines’ ‘BBB+’ long-term and ‘A-2’ short-term sovereign credit ratings, citing the country’s sustained economic recovery due to the government’s ongoing efforts to address infrastructure gaps and improvements in the business climate.

“The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the Philippine economy will maintain healthy growth rates and the fiscal performance will materially improve over the next 24 months,” S&P Global said in a report.

According to S&P, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 5.4 percent this year, reflecting the impact of high base and the slower growth of the world economy.

The report also showed that Philippine economic growth is projected to accelerate to 5.9 percent in 2024, 6.2 percent in 2025 and 6.4 percent in (2026).

The credit rater expects that the Philippines’ economic growth will remain well above the average among its peers “due to the government’s ongoing efforts to address infrastructure gaps and improvements in the business climate through regulatory and tax reforms, which will further support expansion in economic productivity.”

It also recognized the government’s efforts to prioritize infrastructure development and fiscal measures and cited crucial reforms such as the public-private partnership (PPP) framework and the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) Act.

“The Philippine government has generally enacted effective and prudent fiscal policies over the past decade. Improvements to the quality of expenditure, manageable fiscal deficits, and low general government indebtedness testify to this. This track record of sustainable public finances helped the government accumulate fiscal resources to respond to the pandemic,” the report said.

It also underscored the importance of tax reforms in ensuring that public finances remain sustainable, while infrastructure and social needs are addressed.

S&P said the general government (GG) deficit is estimated to decline and to settle at 3.8 percent of GDP in 2023, from 4.4 percent in 2022.

“We believe the fiscal shortfall will continue to narrow over the coming years while the economy regains its footing and the government scales back stimulus measures. We expect the medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF) revealed by the Marcos administration last year to guide the consolidation process,” it said.

The report also highlighted the country’s solid household and corporate balance sheets and sizable remittance inflows, and expects foreign direct investments to remain stable this year.

However, S&P said it may lower the country’s ratings if economic recovery falters, if general government debt exceeds 4 percent of GDP, if net debt stock exceeds 60 percent of GDP or if interest payments exceed 15 percent of revenue on a sustained basis.

“We may raise the ratings if the economy recovers much faster than we expect, and the government achieves more rapid fiscal consolidation,” it said.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What do you think about this recent development? Are you satisfied with what was accomplished this year with regards to foreign tourist arrivals and the related revenues? Do you think the Philippine economy will continue to grow stronger each year until 2026? Do you believe in the findings of S&P Global Ratings?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BIR targeting online sellers

March 20, 2023March 13, 2023carlocarrasco

If you have been engaging on selling items or services online, you should be aware that the Philippines’ authority on taxation the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is constantly watching you and it is seeking ways to tax you, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Already the BIR has been communicating with the e-commerce platforms.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

THE BUREAU of Internal Revenue (BIR) is looking to collect taxes from online sellers on e-commerce platforms more efficiently.

BIR Commissioner Romeo D. Lumagui said it is difficult to monitor taxes on individual online sellers on e-commerce platforms.

“We’re in constant communication with the platforms, because it’s a challenge to monitor. We’re thinking of ways to approach it because if we look at individual online sellers, it’s a bit difficult. It’s a challenge,” he told reporters on Thursday evening.

Mr. Lumagui said the BIR is prioritizing ways to better collect taxes from online sellers and other new platforms this year.

The pandemic forced many entrepreneurs to shift to online selling using e-commerce platforms like Shopee and Lazada, as well as social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and Tiktok.

As of 2022, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) estimated there are around two million entities doing business as online sellers.

In 2021, the digital economy contributed 9.6% to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), or about P1.87 trillion. DigiPinas, the multi-sectoral initiative led by UBX Philippines Corp., earlier said the Philippine digital economy can grow to as much as $150 billion or about P8.3 trillion in the next decade.

Meanwhile, Mr. Lumagui said the BIR will tap social media influencers to help educate the public on the importance of paying taxes.

“They have reach and I think that one way of making people comply with tax obligations is to educate the people since tax is a very complicated topic not easy to understand,” he said, adding the BIR will schedule a dialogue with them.

Mr. Lumagui said the BIR will continue its efforts to collect taxes from social media influencers, since they’re earning income. He noted there are already some who are undergoing tax audits.

“What we want is to dialogue with them that these are your obligations as social media influencers, you’re earning from whatever you’re doing, so this is your responsibility as income earners,” he said.

The BIR said it collected around P44.6 billion worth of tax from online content creators and retail sales at the end of 2021.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? If you have been selling products or services online for the last twelve months, do you think the BIR’s move with taxing your business will negatively affect Philippine e-commerce as a whole? Have you set aside enough money for potential taxation by the BIR? What is the one thing about online selling that made you stay away from selling through physical establishments like a store?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Oxford Economics says Philippine economic growth will slow down to 4.1% this year

February 28, 2023February 23, 2023carlocarrasco

For Oxford Economics, the economy of the Philippines will achieve continued growth in 2023 but with a notable slow down to 4.1%, according to a BusinessWorld news report. Oxford Economics mentioned in its statement factors like the global economy entering recession, inflation and the lack of impact from China’s reopening.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH is expected to slow to 4.1% this year, as external headwinds and elevated inflation are seen to dampen domestic demand, Oxford Economics said.

“After registering respectable growth of 7.6% in 2022, we expect the Philippines’ economy to slow to 4.1% amid global headwinds, elevated inflation, and a fading reopening boost. With monetary tightening set to continue, the economy could use a hand from the fiscal side, but chances are slim,” Makoto Tsuchiya, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said in a research note released on Wednesday.

Oxford Economics’ gross domestic product (GDP) projection is well below the government’s 6-7% target.

It expects GDP to expand by 4.5% next year, still outside the 6.5-8% target set by the government.

“We expect GDP growth to slow materially amid softer external demand as the global economy enters a recession, led by weakness in major advanced economies. We don’t think China’s reopening will be enough to offset this weakness, with the recovery in private consumption there likely to be lackluster,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

There is a widely anticipated global recession this year, with the World Bank projecting global growth to slow to 1.7%.

Rising inflation is also seen to “substantially” slow the Philippine economy, Mr. Tsuchiya said.

In January, inflation soared to a 14-year high of 8.7%, marking the 10th consecutive month inflation was above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target range.

The central bank also raised its average inflation forecast to 6.1% this year from 4.5% previously.

Oxford Economics said that the BSP will continue to hike rates to tame inflation and keep in step with the US Federal Reserve.

“Elevated inflation means policy makers will not be able to react by lowering interest rates. Indeed, we expect tightening to continue for at least the next two meetings, albeit at a slower pace — in contrast to other Asian central banks who can afford to pause,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

Oxford Economics also cited the lack of policy support as a factor contributing to slower growth this year.

“We think significant support is unlikely given limited policy space on both the monetary and fiscal front. Ideally, fiscal policy would take over the burden of supporting growth. But debt accumulated during the pandemic era means the focus is instead on fiscal consolidation,” Mr. Tsuchiya said, noting that the Philippine government may adopt a more restrained approach in spending.

Oxford Economics expects the budget deficit will reach 2.7% of GDP by 2028, better than the 3% projection given by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC).

The government projects the fiscal deficit to hit 6.9% of GDP or around P1.5 trillion this year. In the 11 months to November, the budget deficit shrank by 7.2% to P1.24 trillion.

However, Oxford Economics said the debt-to-GDP ratio may remain elevated at 61.1% by 2025. This is higher than the 60% target set by the government in the same period.

The country ended last year with a debt stock at 60.9%, better than the 63.7% seen in end-September but still above the 60% threshold considered manageable by multilateral lenders for developing economies.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think Oxford Economics’ prediction about 4.1% economic growth for the Philippines this year will turn out to be true? Do you think Oxford Economics made a strong case explaining why economic growth in 2023 will be smaller for the Philippines?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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BSP sees 6-7% economic growth in 2023 for Philippines

February 23, 2023February 20, 2023carlocarrasco

As far as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is concerned, the Philippine economy will grow between 6% to 7% this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld. By comparison, HSBC and the World Bank forecast growth rates of 4.4% and 5.4% respectively.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the BusinessWorld news article. Some parts in boldface…

THE “CONTINUED NORMALIZATION” of post-pandemic mobility will help the Philippine economy expand within the government’s 6-7% target this year, but slower growth is likely in 2024, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

“GDP (gross domestic product) growth is projected to settle within the DBCC’s (Development Budget Coordination Committee) target of 6-7% for 2023, but economic headwinds could result in slower GDP growth in 2024,” the BSP said in its latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

“The full-year growth forecast for 2023 was adjusted upward from the previous MPR. Meanwhile, the growth forecast for 2024 is lower compared to previous round, reflecting weaker global prospects and the impact of cumulative policy rate adjustments of the BSP,” it added.

While the central bank does not give its exact growth forecasts, the DBCC targets 6.5-8% GDP growth in 2024.

According to the central bank, the economy will be “driven by growth in the industry sector as manufacturers signal increased production plans as the economy reopens further.”

Based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the service sector expanded by 9.8% in the fourth quarter last year, while the industry sector grew by 4.8%. Annually, services jumped by 9.2%, and industry expanded by 6.7%.

Better labor market conditions, higher demand for tourism, and greater economic activity due to the resumption of face-to-face classes are seen to boost growth in the services sector, the BSP said.

“Moreover, the implementation of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) Law, Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer (FIST) Act, and the second tranche of the reduction in personal income taxes could help further bolster the domestic outlook in 2023-2024,” it added.

Meanwhile, the overall balance of supply and demand conditions, as reflected by the output gap, is expected to “remain broadly neutral” in the near term.

“Estimates from the BSP’s Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh) indicate that the output gap is estimated to be slightly positive in early 2023, reflecting the sustained economic expansion in 2022,” the central bank said.

The economy grew by 7.6% in 2022, exceeding the government’s 6.5-7.5% target, and the fastest growth since 1975.

“Thereafter, the output gap is seen to remain in broadly neutral territory as the impact of policy interest rate adjustments takes hold on the economy. A projected slowdown in global growth owing in part to tightening monetary conditions across countries could likewise dampen aggregate demand,” the BSP said.

The Monetary Board last week increased the benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 6%, the highest in nearly 16 years. Rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also increased to 5.5% and 6.5%, respectively.

According to analysts, higher interest rates could drag economic growth slower this year.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the Philippines can achieve economic growth beyond 6% this year? Do you think the government should do more with post-pandemic living and economics in mind?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Philippines achieves 7.6% economic growth in 2022

January 30, 2023January 26, 2023carlocarrasco

The Philippines’ recovery from the downturn of the COVID-19 crisis continued strongly as it has been confirmed that the national economy expanded by 7.6% for the entire year of 2022 which includes a 7.2% 4^th quarter economic growth, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). Take note that the Philippines is expected to grow between 6.5% and 7% in 2023 according to the national authorities while there are signs that the United States economy will fall into a recession this year. Regardless, the Philippines ended 2022 competitively in terms of economic expansion among its Asian neighbors.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the PNA news report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy expanded by 7.2 percent in the last quarter of 2022, bringing full-year growth to 7.6 percent, driven by increased economic activity mainly from pent-up demand as it fully reopened amid elevated inflation rate.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said among the major emerging economies in the region that have released their fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the Philippines grew the fastest, followed by Vietnam at 5.9 percent and China at 2.9 percent.  

“Our improved Covid-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) risk management and the easing of mobility restrictions have created a positive economic outlook, boosting economic activity and creating more jobs despite external headwinds,” he said in a briefing on Thursday.

Balisacan said measures being implemented by the government to further buoy the economy’s recovery are working.

“Our strong economic growth performance for 2022 proves that our calibrated policies and strategies have helped put us on the path to recovery and on track to achieving our aspiration for an inclusive, prosperous, and resilient society by 2028,” he said.

Balisacan said pent-up demand drove growth in the fourth quarter as the economy was fully reopened during the period, with household consumption accounting for around three-fourths of domestic output, and investments contributing around a fifth.

“The improvements in labor market conditions, increased tourism, revenge and holiday spending, and resumption of face-to-face classes supported growth in the quarter, further reflecting a solid rebound in consumer and investor confidence in the economy,” he said.

Balisacan said had it not been for the elevated inflation rate, which rose to its highest since November 2008 last December when it accelerated to 8.1 percent, “growth could have been higher by another perhaps 1 to 2 percentage points.”

“It shows how overall demand is sensitive to inflation,” he added.

In terms of the volume of economic activities, Balisacan said domestic growth has recovered for many sectors, except for others such as tourism.

“(But) in so far as per capital income… we haven’t fully recovered yet,” he said.

Balisacan said the government is firm on ensuring that quality jobs will be available to Filipinos to lessen their need to work abroad.

“Inclusive growth across the archipelago will be our vehicle for reducing poverty incidence from 18 percent of the population in 2021 to a single-digit level by 2028,” he said.

National Statistician Dennis Mapa said 2022 full year GDP growth of 7.6 percent exceeded the government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent growth assumption for the year and the highest after the 8.8 percent in 1976.

Mapa said the fourth-quarter growth, slower than the 7.6 percent in the previous quarter, was driven by the wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, financial and insurance activities and retail estate and ownership of dwellings boosted domestic growth.

He said domestic demand remained strong, with the household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) rising by 2.1 percent quarter-on-quarter, led by the restaurants and hotels, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and miscellaneous goods and services. Year-on-year expansion of HFCE stood at 7 percent.

Among the major economic industries, Mapa said agriculture, forestry, and fishing contracted by 1.7 percent because of the lower output of sugarcane, palay (rice), and poultry and egg production.

Meanwhile, Balisacan said the government is doing pro-active assessment of the current situation to address the elevated inflation rate in the country, which is expected to go back to within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target band by the second half of this year.

He said the government continues to allow the importation of several food items to boost domestic supply, adding that not doing so will hurt both the consumers and domestic growth.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this new development? Do you believe that the economy of the Philippine economy will grow between 6.5% to 7% this year? Do you think that more foreign tourists coming into the country will be able to help the nation achieve its economic growth targets this year? Apart from what was already mentioned, what do you think the national government should do to combat inflation? Do you think that the lower income tax for middle income earners will make a positive contribution to economic growth?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below and also please consider sharing this article to others. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. If you want to support my website, please consider making a donation. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @HavenorFantasy as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco/.

HSBC sees Philippine economy growth of 4.4% for 2023 due to key factors

January 12, 2023January 6, 2023carlocarrasco

HSBC, one of the biggest players of the global financial industry, recently made its forecast of the Philippines growing economically at 4.4% for the year 2023, according to a news article by the Philippine News Agency (PNA). There are certain factors mentioned in HSBC’s assessment for the nation.

To put things in perspective, posted below is the excerpt from the PNA article. Some parts in boldface…

Hikes in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) key policy rates are expected to dampen the strong domestic output for 2023, with an executive of HSBC forecasting a 4.4 percent expansion this year.

In a virtual briefing on Thursday, HSBC chief investment officer for Southeast Asia, Global Private Banking and Wealth, James Cheo, said private consumption contributed to the strong recovery of the domestic economy last year but this is seen to be limited by the monetary tightening aimed to temper the elevated inflation rate.

Other factors that boosted gross domestic product (GDP) last year include investments, higher government spending on infrastructure and increased mobility following the resumption of face-to-face schooling, he said.

“Looking into 2023, the country’s growth will slow and the recovery is going to be more gradual as the reopening boost fades and monetary tightening weighs on domestic demand,” Cheo said.

As of the third quarter of last year, growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), rose by 7.76 percent, exceeding the government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent growth assumption for this year.

The BSP’s key rates have been hiked by 350 basis points from May to December last year, after being at record-low of 2 percent in 2020, as monetary authorities help address the elevated inflation rate.

Last December, domestic rate of price increases further accelerated to 8.1 percent, the highest since November 2008, due to faster annual jumps in goods and energy prices.

Cheo said “household’s consumption in 2023 will likely be curtailed” given the elevated inflation rate.

“Strong employment, tourism recovery, expanding production and retail sales, and public investment will continue to support growth in 2023,” he said.

With inflation expected to remain high, Cheo projects the BSP to make three consecutive 25 basis point increases this year, “pausing at 6.25 percent by Q2 (second quarter) 2023” and keeping this decision until at least the second half of 2024.

The above article ended with HSBC predicting that the Philippine Peso will weaken to the United States Dollar at a rate of US$1 = P56.50.

Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you believe that inflation and interest rates will somehow slow down the ongoing economic growth later this year? Do you think that Philippine tourism will become a factor to help the Philippine economy grow at least 5% this year? What do you think the national government and its economic managers should do to maintain strong growth as the nation keeps on recovering from the depression of the COVID-19 crisis? Have you been managing your personal or business finances carefully recently?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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