Box Office Pro, a self-described premiere source of information about the global cinema industry, just predicted that Dark Phoenix (or X-Men: Dark Phoenix in other territories) will open in North American cinemas with $40 million to $55 million and eventually will gross only $113 million in the first eight weeks.
Their reasons are as follows:
The early social media buzz of the film is lower than that of X-Men: Apocalypse at the same point of release.
The early revelation showing the death of one of the major characters “muddied” buzz as of late.
There is “franchise fatigue” for the X-Men Cinematic Universe and as Disney completed at last its acquisition of Fox, it is expected by many fans that the X-Men in film will be rebooted although that will not be happening anytime soon.
If Box Office Pro’s predictions will turn out correct, it means that Dark Phoenix will do worse North American theater business than its 2016 predecessor.
What Box Office Pro did not take into account as a business hindrance for Dark Phoenix is the fact that the movie is the first-ever feature film directed by screenwriter Simon Kinberg (which I already mentioned in my Dark Phoenix movie preview) and prior to filming his most active directing work was as a 2nd unit director for the abysmal 2015 Fantastic Four movie.
At this point things are already looking grim for the upcoming X-Men movie.
Still there is a chance that Box Office Pro could turn out wrong. They previously predicted in 2017 that Wonder Woman would open only with $83 million and gross $225 million within the first eight weeks. That film opened with over $103 million and by the end of its eight weekend its sales reached over $389 million!
Going back to Dark Phoenix, I believe that it is likely that online buzz for the film will get stronger as its scheduled release date nears and it is likely that in North America, superhero movie enthusiasts, X-Men fans and other moviegoers will literally get their next “serving” of superhero cinematic fun with the movie. In relation to this, the demand for the expected sure hit Avengers: Endgame will have faded by the time Dark Phoenix opens.
What Fox has to worry about in terms of movie competition is Warner Bros.’ Godzilla: King of the Monsters. Still, I believe that there are more than enough moviegoers out there who will crave for more superhero fun after they had their fun with Avengers: Endgame.
If Simon Kinberg proves to be a very miraculous first-time director and deliver a very engaging story, then there is the possibility that Dark Phoenix could outgross X-Men: Apocalypse even if it had a smaller opening than that film.
Only time can tell what will happen next.