While local economic managers predict the Philippine economy growing between 6.5% to 7.5% this year, the World Bank (WB) itself forecasts a 5.8% growth for 2024, according to a BusinessWorld news report.
To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface…
THE WORLD BANK (WB) expects the Philippines to be among the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia this year.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects, the multilateral lender projected Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 5.8% in 2024, same as its forecast in December.
The Philippine growth projection is the fastest among Southeast Asian economies, tied with Cambodia (5.8%), and ahead of Vietnam (5.5%), Indonesia (4.9%), Malaysia (4.3%), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (4.1%), Timor-Leste (3.5%), Thailand (3.2%) and Myanmar (2%).
However, this is below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) 6.5-7.5% growth target for 2024.
The World Bank’s growth forecast for the Philippines is also higher than its 4.5% projection for East Asia and the Pacific.
The multilateral lender sees slower growth in the region due to the “anticipated deceleration in economic activity in China.”
Other risks to the growth outlook include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could lead to higher oil prices, dampened global trade, tightening financial conditions and climate-related disasters, it said.
“Extreme weather events, the frequency of which has increased in recent decades as a result of climate change, also pose a downside risk to the regional outlook,” it added.
In the Philippines, the government is preparing for the potential impact of the El Niño weather event this year.
The latest bulletin from the state weather bureau showed that El Niño will likely persist from March to May, when dry season crops are often harvested.
National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said El Niño would likely affect the agriculture sector and drive food prices higher, which could threaten the inflation downtrend.
On the other hand, the multilateral lender said resilient domestic demand could spur growth drivers in the East Asia and Pacific region.
“Modest inflation, and in many cases robust labor markets supported by buoyant service activity, are anticipated to sustain household spending,” it said.
Let me end this piece by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will grow better this year than the WB’s prediction of 5.8%?
You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.
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